Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 100
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 50
Pace 62.8 329
Improvement -1.2 228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 61 A F A- D- A
Defense C 189 C D- C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 7 B 64% 58 +8.2 8
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 363 C+ 39% 126 -5.2 363
Three Pointers 46% 80 A- 40% 9 +6.2 23
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.4 1 A- +6.3 22
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 8
Second Chance F 18.5% 365 C- 0.98 250 F 0.18 361
Turnovers A- 13.3% 16
Freethrows D- 0.25 331 D 69% 302 D- 0.17 343
Total Offense B +5.7 61

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 87 B- 9.5% 99
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 240 B- 3.6% 81
Three Pointers D+ 81% 262 D+ 1.3% 296
Total B 62% 61 C+ 5.4% 161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 210 B 53% 55 -2.6 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 146 D 43% 328 +1.3 291
Three Pointers 41% 170 D+ 36% 265 +1.3 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 135 C +0.2 183
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 176
Second Chance C- 31.6% 226 F+ 1.20 352 D- 0.38 327
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 111
Freethrows A- 0.23 17 C- 73% 249 B+ 0.17 25
Total Defense C -0.6 189

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 35 C+ 12.5% 111
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 136 D+ 3.1% 291
Three Pointers D 88% 308 C+ 1.2% 115
Total C+ 53% 122 C 5.8% 155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 290 18.1 307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 334 0.12 41
Improvement -1.4 #258 +0.2 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 117 100 82
Conference Record 17 - 3 19 - 1 20 - 0
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 38% 32%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round36% 38% 32%
Second Round4% 4% 3%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 02 - 1
Quad 310 - 312 - 5
Quad 413 - 125 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 151 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 77% +8  95% 1 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +25 A+ A A+ F -11 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 9 118 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 69% +15  97% 2 - 0 A +20 A+ +17 A+ D- A- B +4 A+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 229 Vermont W 79 - 73 80% +10  95% 3 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 A+ F B- C- -2 C- F C
 Tue, Nov 25 167 Towson L 69 - 72 70% +1  53% 3 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 B D- A+ D- -7 D+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 120 Bradley L 64 - 74 59% -10  1% 3 - 2 D+ -7 D -4 B- F C D+ -4 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 98% +34  97% 4 - 2 A +20 A- +11 A+ D C A +10 A A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 24 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 10% -25  0% 4 - 3 F -21 F -21 F+ F F C- -2 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 88 @Dayton W 64 - 61 34% -2  33% 5 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 A F A+ A- +7 A C- C
 Sun, Dec 28 185 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 64% -0  38% 6 - 3 1 - 0 C+ +4 A+ +14 A D A+ F -10 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 2 165 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 79% +8  99% 7 - 3 2 - 0 C+ +5 C- -1 A- F C- B+ +6 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 200 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 84% +4  70% 8 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 C C- A+ D+ -5 B F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 70% +8  96% 9 - 3 4 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 B C- A+ A- +8 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 114 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 46% +5  84% 10 - 3 5 - 0 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ F C B+ +6 C B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 157 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 78% +6  89% 11 - 3 6 - 0 C -1 A- +9 A+ F A F -10 D F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 246 UTEP W 80 - 69 88% +7  95% 12 - 3 7 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ F A+ D- -8 F A A-
 Wed, Jan 21 168 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 60% +5  81% 13 - 3 8 - 0 B +9 B+ +9 A+ D C+ C+ +1 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 24 263 Delaware W 67 - 51 90% +7  80% 14 - 3 9 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 A F A A+ +12 C+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 171 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 61% +12  90% 15 - 3 10 - 0 A +18 A+ +18 A+ F A+ B- +2 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 263 @Delaware W 75 - 69 77% +1  53% 16 - 3 11 - 0 C+ +3 B +7 A+ F C D+ -3 D- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 202 Missouri St. W 79 - 76 84% +7  86% 17 - 3 12 - 0 C- -2 B- +4 A- F+ C+ D -6 C- F D
 Wed, Feb 11 157 @New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 58% +1  43% 18 - 3 13 - 0 B- +5 B- +5 C+ B- A C+ +0 C- F C
 Sat, Feb 14 246 @UTEP W 73 - 64 74% +2  68% 19 - 3 14 - 0 B- +7 B+ +9 A F A+ C -0 F+ D B
 Thu, Feb 19 185 Florida International W 90 - 89 OT 82% +1  48% 20 - 3 15 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 A+ F B- D -6 C- F+ B
 Sat, Feb 21 168 Western Kentucky W 79 - 70 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 165 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 78 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 200 @Jacksonville St. W 72 - 68 66%
 Thu, Mar 5 218 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 62 85%
 Sat, Mar 7 114 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 74 68%
Totals 24 - 4 19 - 1 +5 B +6 A+ A- A C -1 A- D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B C+ A- A- 48% 13% 46% A A F C- F A- D- D D- C B D D+ C 37% 21% 41% C+ C C- F+ D- C+ A- C- B+
1.17 64% 39% 40% +6 +2 1.20 19% 1.0 .18 13% .25 69% .17 1.09 53% 43% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 18% .23 73% .19
Nov
7		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ A- C B+ F A F F F+ 35% 22% 43% C D- F F F B C+ A+ B+
1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21 1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22
Nov
9		 Florida Atlantic A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 7% 47% B+ A+ F+ C D- A- F A+ D B A B- A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% C- A+ C- F F B- F F F
1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19 1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38
Nov
24		 Vermont B- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% A+ A+ F A+ F B- D+ F F C- C F C- D+ 34% 20% 46% B- C- C F F C C+ C C+
1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15 1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20
Nov
25		 Towson C+ A+ D- F C+ 44% 6% 50% A+ B F+ C+ D- A+ F A+ D- D- D F A+ D 35% 35% 30% B- D+ D+ F F D+ C+ D C
1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14 1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
26		 Bradley D D+ A+ B- C 43% 9% 48% A+ B- F F F C A- F D D+ D+ D+ F D- 35% 28% 37% B D F F F A+ B F C
1.00 55% 50% 36% +1 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21 1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24
Dec
6		 Coppin St. A- A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 6% 55% B+ A+ D C D C F F F A B+ A+ A A 31% 31% 39% B A C A+ A+ C- D+ C+ C-
1.35 76% 33% 52% +21 +2 1.49 31% 1.1 .34 16% .12 57% .07 0.74 47% 20% 26% -13 -2 0.71 28% 0.5 .13 22% .34 67% .23
Dec
10		 North Carolina St. F C- F F 43% 0% 57% A F+ F F F F F F F C- D- A F+ C- 46% 13% 41% D D+ B A+ A+ C- C A B-
0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06 1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22
Dec
20		 Dayton B B+ F A+ B+ 55% 12% 33% A+ A F F F A+ F F F A- A+ F C+ A 27% 16% 57% A- A D+ B- C- C A+ D A
1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07 1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24
Dec
28		 Florida International A+ A+ F+ B+ A 34% 5% 61% B A D C- D A+ F+ B- D- F A+ F D- C 60% 16% 24% F C- F F F C+ D- C- D-
1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18 1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25
Jan
2		 Kennesaw St. C- C+ A+ A- B 56% 4% 40% A+ A- F C F C- C- B+ C+ B+ A+ A- A A+ 40% 12% 48% C- A+ F A C- C+ A+ C A+
1.11 57% 50% 40% +4 +3 1.16 14% 1.0 .14 16% .39 79% .31 1.00 38% 29% 28% -14 +1 0.77 46% 0.8 .35 18% .22 69% .15
Jan
4		 Jacksonville St. B+ D- F B- D+ 50% 4% 46% A C B- F+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ B A+ B A- 51% 10% 39% D B D- F+ F D- C F F
1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39 1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Louisiana Tech A- C F B B- 46% 8% 46% A- B D C+ C- A+ D+ A+ C+ A- A+ C+ F C 34% 22% 44% B- C+ A A+ A F A- A+ A+
1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24 0.92 29% 36% 41% -6 0 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09
Jan
10		 Sam Houston St. B+ A- A+ C A 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F C A- A A B+ A+ F F C+ 46% 16% 38% D C D- A B- A C+ F C-
1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30 1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20
Jan
15		 New Mexico St. A- B+ C- A+ A+ 52% 14% 34% A A+ F F F A D+ C+ C- F C- C+ F F+ 19% 37% 44% A+ D C- F F D- A+ A+ A+
1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27 1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
17		 UTEP A A+ A C+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A+ A+ F C- F A+ F A+ F D- D+ F F F 33% 23% 44% D- F A+ C A A- A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16 1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04
Jan
21		 Western Kentucky B+ F F A+ A 33% 2% 65% A+ A+ F A+ D C+ B+ C B+ C+ A B+ F D 32% 21% 47% B D+ C- F F A C- A+ B-
1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Delaware C- B D A A- 36% 6% 57% A+ A F F F A D F F A+ F A+ D+ C 33% 28% 40% A- C+ A+ F A- A+ D- A+ B-
1.11 65% 33% 41% +8 +2 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 10% .24 62% .15 0.85 69% 27% 38% +3 -1 1.05 4% 2.0 .08 27% .29 54% .16
Jan
29		 Middle Tennessee A+ A A+ A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ F F F A+ F F+ F B- A+ A C+ A 26% 24% 50% B A D- F F B F+ B D
1.32 70% 75% 48% +18 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12 1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20
Feb
4		 Delaware B A+ F A A+ 30% 9% 61% A- A+ F F F C A A+ A+ D+ F F D+ F 28% 24% 48% B+ D- A+ D A- D+ A- F B
1.20 85% 25% 41% +13 +1 1.30 9% 0.0 .00 14% .37 90% .34 1.11 71% 50% 38% +9 -1 1.18 8% 1.0 .08 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
7		 Missouri St. B- A- A+ D B 48% 11% 41% A+ A- F A- F+ C+ A+ F A- D B+ B+ F C- 38% 29% 33% C C- D+ F F D F A+ C-
1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32 1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 New Mexico St. B- D A+ D C- 42% 7% 51% A+ C+ D- A+ B- A F A+ F C+ F D+ A C 34% 21% 45% D C- B- F F C A+ F A+
1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13 1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12
Feb
14		 UTEP B+ A+ C C+ A- 37% 10% 53% A- A F F F A+ D F F C F+ B- F F 28% 34% 38% B- F+ B F D B B+ D B-
1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18 1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -2 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16
Feb
19		 Florida International C+ D+ A A+ A 47% 4% 49% A A+ F C- F B- B- C B- D A- B- F C 54% 21% 25% D+ C- F C- F+ B C+ F F+
1.14 54% 50% 48% +9 +3 1.25 17% 1.0 .17 19% .34 73% .25 1.12 48% 33% 50% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.1 .44 20% .30 89% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 12.2 28.5 36.7 19.7 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.7 12.2 28.5 36.7 19.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 19.7    19.7
19-1 100.0% 36.7    36.7
18-2 100.0% 28.5    28.5
17-3 100.0% 12.2    12.2
16-4 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-5 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 99.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 19.7% 43.2% 42.9% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 3.0 5.2 0.3 11.2 0.4%
19-1 36.7% 38.7% 38.6% 0.1% 12.1 1.4 9.9 2.8 0.0 22.5 0.1%
18-2 28.5% 33.1% 33.1% 12.3 0.4 6.0 3.0 0.1 19.1
17-3 12.2% 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 1.9 1.5 0.1 8.6 0.0%
16-4 2.7% 26.9% 26.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.0
15-5 0.2% 19.7% 19.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.5% 36.4% 0.1% 12.1 63.5 0.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.4% 100.0% 11.7 0.2 34.5 61.6 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7% 0.5% 11.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.4
Lose Out 0.1%