Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#137
Pace64.4#310
Improvement-4.7#360

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#101
First Shot+4.3#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#260
Layup/Dunks+9.1#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#37
Freethrows-5.3#365
Improvement-4.8#365

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#134
First Shot+2.0#103
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#278
Layups/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 28.9% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 90.6% 96.8% 88.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 95.1% 90.1%
Conference Champion 32.8% 41.6% 30.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round23.1% 28.8% 21.5%
Second Round3.1% 4.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 59 - 9
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 184 College of Charleston W 90-75 79%     1 - 0 +10.4 +25.1 -12.9
  Sun, Nov 9 117 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 64%     2 - 0 +20.3 +16.0 +4.9
  Mon, Nov 24 174 Vermont W 79-73 68%     3 - 0 +5.0 +6.1 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 142 Towson L 69-72 60%     3 - 1 -1.7 +4.3 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 26 107 Bradley L 64-74 50%     3 - 2 -6.1 -0.4 -6.6
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 98%     4 - 2 +19.8 +12.0 +9.0
  Wed, Dec 10 28 @North Carolina St. L 45-85 11%     4 - 3 -22.6 -19.6 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 20 61 @Dayton L 68-76 23%    
  Sun, Dec 28 186 @Florida International W 77-74 60%    
  Fri, Jan 2 156 Kennesaw St. W 81-74 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 273 Jacksonville St. W 73-60 89%    
  Thu, Jan 8 189 @Louisiana Tech W 66-63 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 118 @Sam Houston St. L 75-77 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 135 New Mexico St. W 71-66 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 211 UTEP W 72-62 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 144 @Western Kentucky L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 287 Delaware W 76-63 89%    
  Wed, Jan 28 159 @Middle Tennessee W 71-70 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 287 @Delaware W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 Missouri St. W 73-61 87%    
  Wed, Feb 11 135 @New Mexico St. L 68-69 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 211 @UTEP W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 186 Florida International W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 144 Western Kentucky W 79-73 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 156 @Kennesaw St. W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 273 @Jacksonville St. W 70-63 73%    
  Thu, Mar 5 189 Louisiana Tech W 69-60 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 118 Sam Houston St. W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.6 8.4 7.5 4.5 1.9 0.5 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.6 5.7 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.3 8.5 11.0 12.6 13.6 13.2 11.0 8.0 4.6 1.9 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.8% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 98.3% 4.5    4.3 0.2
17-3 93.3% 7.5    6.5 1.0 0.0
16-4 76.0% 8.4    6.0 2.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 49.9% 6.6    3.2 2.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 21.2% 2.9    0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 23.2 7.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 69.1% 67.1% 2.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 6.0%
19-1 1.9% 49.7% 49.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0
18-2 4.6% 45.9% 45.8% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.3%
17-3 8.0% 39.0% 39.0% 12.3 0.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 4.9
16-4 11.0% 34.3% 34.3% 12.5 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.2 7.2
15-5 13.2% 30.1% 30.1% 12.8 0.0 1.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.2
14-6 13.6% 24.0% 24.0% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 10.3
13-7 12.6% 19.6% 19.6% 13.3 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.1
12-8 11.0% 14.4% 14.4% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 9.5
11-9 8.5% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-10 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.8
9-11 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.8
8-12 2.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
7-13 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 7.7 9.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.4 2.3 4.7 14.0 14.0 16.3 11.6 11.6 25.6