Loyola Maryland
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -12.2 #339
Pace 69.8 #156
Improvement +3.6 #42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #277 D+ C- D+ D+ B-
Defense #327 D+ D D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #236 1.10 #249 -2.1 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.75 #188 -2.9 #321
Three Pointers 50% #27 0.92 #296 +2.2 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #256 -2.8 #262
Freethrows 0.28 #270 70% #273 0.19 #279
Second Chance 27.9% #253 1.04 #178 0.29 #235
Turnovers 17.7% #264
Total Offense -4.0 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #108 1.28 #324 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #150 0.88 #340 -1.7 #311
Three Pointers 37% #287 0.99 #143 +2.5 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.5 #291
Freethrows 0.30 #195 76% #339 0.23 #215
Second Chance 32.5% #270 1.20 #335 0.39 #329
Turnovers 14.1% #316
Total Defense -5.4 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #298 6.6% #305
Possession Length 18.2 #263 16.7 #75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.21 #317
Improvement +0.2 #170 +3.5 #27

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 57.1% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 2.0% 13.5%
First Four3.3% 4.8% 3.0%
First Round1.8% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 410 - 1310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 168 Towson L 56 - 67 21% -4  0 - 1 -12 -11 F F C- -2 D+ C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 332 NJIT L 64 - 66 66% +1  0 - 2 -16 -12 F+ B- F -4 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 337 Stonehill W 74 - 63 57% +3  1 - 2 -0 +5 B C C+ -5 F+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 272 @Fairfield L 82 - 85 28% -4  1 - 3 -6 +5 A- F F+ -11 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 121 @Duquesne L 78 - 92 9% -12  1 - 4 -8 +3 B- D+ C -10 D F A
 Fri, Nov 21 27 @Kentucky L 46 - 88 1% -26  1 - 5 -24 -19 F D+ F -4 C C+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 364 Coppin St. W 95 - 84 89% +7  2 - 5 -12 +11 A+ B+ F -23 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 3 237 @Hampton L 71 - 93 22% -15  2 - 6 -23 -4 F A+ F -18 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 9 357 @VMI L 70 - 86 57% -15  2 - 7 -27 -1 F+ C+ C- -28 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 291 Mount St. Mary's L 73 - 81 53% -5  2 - 8 -18 -7 B- F D -11 F F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 86 @George Mason L 79 - 86 5% +1  2 - 9 +3 +14 C+ A+ C+ -11 B F F+
 Wed, Dec 31 233 @American L 69 - 84 21% -10  2 - 10 0 - 1 -16 -0 B- D- F -17 F C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 315 Lafayette L 64 - 79 61% -15  2 - 11 0 - 2 -27 -10 D- F C -19 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 334 @Army W 84 - 76 OT 45% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -0 +2 D- C D -2 B- D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 322 @Bucknell L 67 - 70 40% +9  3 - 12 1 - 3 -10 -6 C+ F F -4 C+ D+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 214 Colgate L 80 - 86 38% -3  3 - 13 1 - 4 -12 +0 C- D- A+ -12 C D- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 286 Boston University W 74 - 57 52% +1  4 - 13 2 - 4 +7 -7 F A+ C+ +14 A+ A- A
 Mon, Jan 19 304 @Lehigh L 81 - 88 35% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -12 +9 A- D- A -22 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 322 Bucknell W 67 - 62 63% +14  5 - 14 3 - 5 -8 -3 F C F -4 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 233 American W 77 - 68 41% +8  6 - 14 4 - 5 +2 -3 F B- C+ +4 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 175 @Navy L 65 - 76 14%
 Wed, Feb 4 304 Lehigh W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 286 @Boston University L 71 - 76 31%
 Wed, Feb 11 315 @Lafayette L 73 - 76 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 323 Holy Cross W 75 - 71 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 334 Army W 79 - 74 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 @Colgate L 71 - 80 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 175 Navy L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 323 @Holy Cross L 72 - 74 41%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -9 -4 D+ C- D+ -5 D+ D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.1 3.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 8.7 6.0 1.0 0.1 18.9 4th
5th 1.5 10.9 6.5 0.8 19.7 5th
6th 0.3 8.3 8.1 0.9 17.6 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 10.8 1.6 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.8 7.3 3.2 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.3 3.4 4.2 0.3 8.2 9th
10th 0.9 2.6 0.6 4.1 10th
Total 1.2 6.8 15.5 24.2 23.7 16.4 8.7 3.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 17.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 3.1% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.3 2.8
10-8 8.7% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.6 8.1
9-9 16.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.8 15.7
8-10 23.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.8 22.9
7-11 24.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.6 23.6
6-12 15.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.3
5-13 6.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.7
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%