Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 317
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 303
Pace 69.5 149
Improvement +2.7 73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 232 D C- C+ C+ C-
Defense D- 354 D- F+ D+ B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 D 51% 327 -3.5 298
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 120 C+ 39% 138 +1.3 104
Three Pointers 40% 207 D+ 32% 258 -1.6 244
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 251 D+ -3.3 296
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 293
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 287 C+ 1.06 125 C- 0.28 242
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 123
Freethrows C- 0.29 233 A- 79% 7 C+ 0.23 142
Total Offense C- -2.2 232

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 147 D 63% 317 +2.8 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 211 D+ 41% 293 +0.1 199
Three Pointers 41% 177 D- 38% 334 +2.4 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 214 D- +4.9 344
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 338
Second Chance F+ 36.7% 350 D+ 1.10 289 F+ 0.40 348
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 290
Freethrows B+ 0.25 28 D- 76% 333 B 0.19 50
Total Defense D- -7.6 354

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 224 16.4 37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 294 0.19 235
Improvement +0.0 #184 +2.7 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 24% 58% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 31.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 411 - 1012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 47 @USC L 83 - 114 2% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -17 B- +4 C+ D A- F -16 C+ F D
 Wed, Nov 12 190 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 23% +3  77% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B+ +8 B B+ D- D -6 B+ F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 108 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 7% -15  1% 1 - 2 F -23 F -14 D+ F C D- -8 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 89% +5  85% 2 - 2 F+ -16 C+ +2 C+ A- F+ F -18 F F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 33 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 1% -21  0% 2 - 3 F -24 D -4 B F D+ F -17 F D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 26 325 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 64% +8  85% 2 - 4 F+ -15 B+ +8 C B+ B F -24 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 342 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 48% -3  9% 2 - 5 D- -12 D- -7 F C+ C+ D+ -5 F C- B
 Fri, Dec 5 267 Fairfield W 70 - 66 47% +4  86% 3 - 5 1 - 0 D+ -5 F -14 F+ F F A- +9 B B- A
 Sun, Dec 7 183 @Marist L 68 - 80 15% -3  15% 3 - 6 1 - 1 D -11 D- -6 C- F C C- -3 C- F+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 151 @Fordham L 53 - 82 12% -11  0% 3 - 7 F -26 F -14 F D+ B F -14 F F+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 174 Furman L 68 - 75 29% -2  18% 3 - 8 D -11 F+ -8 D+ C- D- C- -3 D D- A
 Sun, Dec 21 276 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 49% +3  63% 4 - 8 C- -4 B +7 A- D A- F+ -10 D D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 354 @Rider W 74 - 71 56% -2  10% 5 - 8 2 - 1 D -8 C- -2 F C+ D+ D -6 D+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 2 193 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 32% -8  5% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 B F B D -7 C+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 162 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 13% -4  13% 6 - 9 3 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 C- F A+ C -1 F B+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 346 Canisius L 64 - 70 71% +1  49% 6 - 10 3 - 3 F -22 F -13 F+ F C- D- -9 D+ D F
 Sun, Jan 11 332 Niagara W 79 - 70 68% -1  43% 7 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -5 A- +10 F A+ A+ F -14 F B- D
 Wed, Jan 14 267 @Fairfield L 62 - 98 26% -20  0% 7 - 11 4 - 4 F -39 F -18 F D- D- F -20 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 188 Siena L 59 - 74 32% -12  0% 7 - 12 4 - 5 F -20 F -12 F D- A- F+ -10 F B- B
 Mon, Jan 19 193 @Quinnipiac L 92 - 98 OT 16% +1  44% 7 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -5 B+ +8 C C+ A- F -13 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 252 @Iona L 57 - 66 23% -8  0% 7 - 14 4 - 7 D -11 F -14 F D C- B- +3 C C+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 354 Rider W 95 - 90 77% +2  72% 8 - 14 5 - 7 D- -12 A+ +15 A D+ B- F -27 F F F
 Sun, Feb 1 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 65 - 72 30% -4  1% 8 - 15 5 - 8 D- -11 D -6 F B+ B- D -6 A F D
 Thu, Feb 5 225 St. Peter's L 75 - 80 38% -7  0% 8 - 16 5 - 9 D- -12 B +7 D A+ C F -19 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 281 Sacred Heart W 80 - 68 51% -2  28% 9 - 16 6 - 9 C+ +2 D -4 D- F B+ B+ +6 A- C- D-
 Fri, Feb 13 332 @Niagara W 76 - 69 45% +5  85% 10 - 16 7 - 9 C -1 B- +5 C+ B C- D -6 F A D+
 Sun, Feb 15 346 @Canisius W 69 - 65 50% +6  76% 11 - 16 8 - 9 D+ -6 D+ -3 F A+ B- C- -2 D A F
 Fri, Feb 20 183 Marist L 68 - 73 32%
 Fri, Feb 27 225 @St. Peter's L 69 - 78 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 252 Iona L 77 - 79 44%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -10 C- -2 C- D+ C- D- -8 D+ A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D C+ D+ D+ 37% 42% 40% C- D D+ C+ C- C+ C- A- C+ D- D D+ D- D- 40% 19% 41% C- D- F+ D+ F+ D+ B+ D- B
1.06 51% 39% 32% -3 0 0.94 27% 1.1 .28 16% .29 79% .23 1.19 63% 41% 38% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.1 .40 15% .25 76% .22
Nov
9		 USC B- F+ A+ D+ C+ 42% 19% 38% B- C+ D+ F+ D A- A+ B+ A+ F D+ A+ F+ B- 48% 23% 30% D+ C+ F F F D D+ D+ D
1.01 45% 60% 30% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.7 .17 15% .51 81% .41 1.39 66% 21% 39% +2 0 1.07 52% 1.3 .65 15% .46 75% .34
Nov
12		 Utah Tech B+ C- C A+ B 52% 17% 30% B- B B+ B B+ D- A A+ A+ D A- C C+ A- 38% 15% 46% C- B+ F D F F+ D+ A+ C+
1.22 58% 38% 43% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 19% .38 85% .32 1.16 50% 38% 33% -4 +1 0.96 43% 1.0 .43 12% .26 60% .16
Nov
14		 Hawaii F D+ F A+ D+ 57% 25% 19% B- D+ F F F C B- F D- D- B+ A+ F C+ 55% 13% 32% D- C F F+ F F F+ C D-
0.77 50% 15% 40% -8 +1 0.87 15% 0.2 .03 17% .33 50% .17 1.19 52% 0% 47% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .47 14% .42 73% .30
Nov
15		 Mississippi Valley C+ A- A+ C+ C+ 27% 12% 61% C C+ A D+ A- F+ A+ A- A+ F C F A- F 27% 43% 31% B- F F F F C- B+ F D+
1.25 73% 60% 36% +9 0 1.20 48% 1.2 .56 20% .62 81% .51 1.14 54% 62% 27% +6 -4 1.06 35% 1.8 .61 20% .21 100% .21
Nov
21		 Texas A&M D C D A+ B 37% 24% 39% C- B F F+ F D+ B F D+ F F A- F F 44% 5% 52% D+ F A+ F D+ F+ A- C- B+
0.91 56% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.06 19% 0.7 .14 21% .32 58% .19 1.46 74% 33% 47% +17 +2 1.40 25% 1.4 .36 11% .26 76% .20
Nov
26		 Wagner B+ F A+ A+ C+ 37% 23% 40% D- C B B B+ B A+ B A+ F F F F F 60% 12% 29% F F F A- F C- F D- F
1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39 1.33 65% 50% 60% +17 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31
Nov
29		 Army D- C- F F F 34% 22% 44% D+ F F A+ C+ C+ F A+ D+ D+ B A+ F F 45% 9% 47% D F C D+ C- B A+ F A
1.05 60% 23% 27% -7 -1 0.86 23% 1.8 .40 14% .27 88% .23 1.10 50% 0% 48% +3 +2 1.12 29% 1.0 .29 20% .10 100% .10
Dec
5		 Fairfield F D- A+ F F 52% 12% 36% B- F+ D- F F F A- A- A A- B- D A B- 25% 28% 47% A B F A+ B- A A+ F A
0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30 0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10
Dec
7		 Marist D- F+ C- B C 35% 33% 33% D C- F F F C B B+ B+ C- D D A- C 35% 15% 50% F+ C- F B- F+ D C+ A+ B
0.90 50% 35% 35% -3 -2 0.92 20% 0.5 .10 19% .39 75% .29 1.06 62% 44% 27% -3 0 0.97 36% 1.1 .38 16% .24 67% .16
Dec
13		 Fordham F F C- F F 32% 32% 36% D+ F F A+ D+ B F A+ D+ F C+ F F+ F 36% 29% 35% B+ F F B- F+ C+ A+ D A+
0.81 41% 35% 21% -13 -2 0.72 16% 1.5 .24 14% .16 100% .16 1.26 55% 75% 37% +11 -1 1.22 50% 0.9 .43 18% .08 75% .06
Dec
18		 Furman F+ A C- F C- 28% 30% 43% F+ D+ B- D- C- D- B- D C+ C- C D- D D+ 42% 8% 50% D- D F C+ D- A C+ A+ A+
0.98 67% 38% 26% -3 -2 0.93 33% 0.9 .29 17% .28 69% .19 1.08 62% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.14 39% 0.9 .36 24% .27 36% .10
Dec
21		 Presbyterian B A A B A 42% 15% 44% C+ A- D+ D D A- B- C+ B- F+ C+ B F D 46% 20% 34% D- D D- D+ D- F A+ F A
1.23 70% 50% 38% +9 +1 1.22 27% 0.9 .24 11% .32 70% .22 1.14 56% 33% 40% +1 +1 1.05 38% 1.1 .41 16% .18 82% .15
Dec
29		 Rider C- F A+ C- F 40% 17% 43% D F B+ D- C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D B- C B- C- 44% 22% 34% F D+ F D+ F C+ B- A B
1.13 32% 75% 35% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.9 .36 15% .49 78% .38 1.08 50% 36% 29% -6 0 0.90 45% 1.0 .45 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
2		 Quinnipiac C+ C A+ C B+ 40% 23% 38% D+ B D- F F B C- A+ B+ D F A+ D C- 26% 38% 36% A+ C+ F+ F F A- A+ F B-
1.12 57% 58% 35% +5 0 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 15% .26 94% .25 1.10 71% 20% 37% -2 -3 0.92 38% 1.7 .65 21% .18 100% .18
Jan
4		 Merrimack D+ F A+ F D+ 51% 28% 21% C C- F F+ F A+ F A+ F C F F B+ F 41% 8% 51% D F A C B+ D C A+ B+
0.98 41% 56% 25% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .26 13% .14 88% .12 1.09 75% 50% 28% +3 +2 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 13% .34 65% .22
Jan
9		 Canisius F C+ F B- D- 36% 28% 36% D- F+ F+ F F C- F A+ F+ D- D+ D+ A D+ 42% 29% 29% C D+ F B- D F D F F
0.96 63% 20% 37% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.4 .11 17% .18 90% .16 1.05 55% 40% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .30 14% .31 83% .26
Jan
11		 Niagara A- C F F F 44% 29% 27% C- F B- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ F B- F F F 49% 9% 43% F+ F F+ A+ B- D A F B+
1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34 1.16 52% 75% 50% +11 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12
Jan
14		 Fairfield F F C F F 40% 26% 34% F F F+ C- D- D- A+ B+ A+ F F F F F 34% 25% 41% B F C- F+ D D+ F A- D-
0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32 1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23
Jan
17		 Siena F F A+ F F 31% 19% 50% C F F+ D+ D- A- F+ D F+ F+ C D+ F F 35% 22% 43% D F D+ A B- B A+ A+ A+
0.94 44% 60% 23% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.9 .22 13% .22 67% .15 1.18 59% 45% 57% +17 -1 1.35 32% 0.8 .25 19% .06 33% .02
Jan
19		 Quinnipiac B+ F D+ A+ C 47% 22% 32% C C C B- C+ A- B+ A+ A+ F C+ D- F F 40% 22% 38% D+ F F F F C- F B F
1.15 46% 31% 47% -1 0 1.02 33% 1.1 .36 14% .33 91% .30 1.22 55% 42% 43% +5 0 1.11 44% 1.3 .59 16% .48 66% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Iona F F A+ F F 34% 19% 47% C- F D C- D C- C+ A+ B B- F+ C- B- C- 26% 21% 53% A- C F A+ C+ C+ D D- D-
0.88 39% 50% 16% -17 0 0.68 30% 0.9 .28 17% .28 80% .22 1.02 67% 40% 32% +1 -1 1.02 35% 0.7 .24 19% .30 75% .23
Jan
30		 Rider A+ B+ F A+ A 37% 10% 53% C- A D+ C- D+ B- A A+ A+ F F B- F F 48% 23% 29% F F F F F F F B- F
1.41 67% 20% 50% +14 +1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 12% .37 95% .35 1.34 68% 33% 40% +6 0 1.15 39% 1.2 .45 9% .49 67% .33
Feb
1		 Mount St. Mary's D F A+ F F 25% 17% 58% C- F D+ A+ B+ B- F A+ F+ D A- B A- A 40% 21% 38% B A F F F D B F D
0.99 46% 56% 23% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.5 .39 12% .23 85% .19 1.10 47% 30% 28% -10 0 0.83 39% 1.6 .64 20% .27 93% .25
Feb
5		 St. Peter's B D+ A- F+ D+ 27% 22% 51% D- D A A- A+ C A+ A- A+ F B+ F A C 38% 22% 40% C- C F D- F F B- F C-
1.20 55% 44% 29% -4 -1 0.93 46% 1.3 .57 19% .52 81% .42 1.28 47% 55% 25% -6 0 0.90 44% 1.1 .49 6% .31 83% .26
Feb
7		 Sacred Heart D D- B- C D- 39% 21% 40% D D- F D F B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ D A- A+ A- 30% 20% 50% B- A- A- F C- D- B F B-
1.13 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 11% .32 90% .29 0.96 63% 27% 26% -7 -1 0.87 21% 1.4 .28 15% .23 86% .20
Feb
13		 Niagara B- A+ F A+ B 27% 29% 44% F+ C+ D A+ B C- D- A D+ D F F B- F 43% 15% 41% C- F A- A+ A D+ F F F
1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21 1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25
Feb
15		 Canisius D+ F D- B+ F 46% 26% 28% C- F C- A+ A+ B- A+ F B- C- F A- A+ D- 33% 27% 39% B- D B- A+ A F C F F+
1.07 43% 33% 38% -6 0 0.89 30% 1.8 .55 14% .43 58% .25 1.00 76% 29% 25% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.5 .12 14% .27 93% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 7.0 1.7 8.8 6th
7th 7.9 11.2 0.3 19.4 7th
8th 0.4 21.4 2.1 23.9 8th
9th 10.0 12.5 0.0 22.6 9th
10th 22.0 1.7 23.7 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 32.4 43.6 20.6 3.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 3.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 20.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.5
9-11 43.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 43.5
8-12 32.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 32.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 21.7%