Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#313
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#248
Pace70.8#136
Improvement+0.3#166

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#253
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#344
Layup/Dunks-3.2#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#69
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+0.3#146

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#325
First Shot-3.2#284
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#302
Layups/Dunks-8.2#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#69
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement-0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 25.8% 36.4% 16.5%
.500 or above in Conference 44.9% 57.8% 33.6%
Conference Champion 5.0% 8.2% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 5.2% 14.0%
First Four2.1% 2.6% 1.6%
First Round2.4% 3.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 46.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 411 - 1212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -12.4 -15.4 +3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 201   Fordham W 78-76 38%     1 - 1 -2.9 -1.2 -1.7
  Nov 17, 2024 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 51%     1 - 2 -11.3 +3.9 -15.3
  Nov 22, 2024 282   Army W 80-79 55%     2 - 2 -8.4 +0.7 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 65-74 7%     2 - 3 -0.1 +7.1 -8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 334   Le Moyne L 77-81 68%     2 - 4 -17.0 -5.9 -10.9
  Dec 06, 2024 209   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 20%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.7 +1.1 +2.7
  Dec 08, 2024 242   Marist L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 18, 2024 300   @ Wagner L 61-65 36%    
  Dec 21, 2024 248   @ Presbyterian L 70-76 27%    
  Jan 03, 2025 302   @ Siena L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 05, 2025 257   @ Rider L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 10, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 12, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 308   Niagara W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 283   Fairfield W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 31, 2025 274   Iona W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 02, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 209   St. Peter's L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 222   Merrimack L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 16, 2025 283   @ Fairfield L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 21, 2025 274   @ Iona L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 23, 2025 245   Quinnipiac L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 28, 2025 345   @ Canisius W 75-74 54%    
  Mar 02, 2025 308   @ Niagara L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 302   Siena W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.1 1.4 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.4 2.7 0.2 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.1 1.2 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.4 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 8.5 10.7 11.8 12.8 12.1 10.3 8.2 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 98.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-4 82.1% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 62.6% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 32.4% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 9.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 35.0% 35.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 33.8% 33.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 20.2% 20.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.2% 20.3% 20.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
15-5 2.3% 15.1% 15.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9
14-6 4.1% 14.1% 14.1% 15.8 0.1 0.5 3.5
13-7 6.2% 10.4% 10.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 5.5
12-8 8.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.6
11-9 10.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.8
10-10 12.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.8
9-11 12.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.7
8-12 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 10.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-14 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
5-15 5.9% 5.9
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%