Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#319
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#311
Pace70.2#165
Improvement+0.4#145

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#230
First Shot-1.4#209
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#244
Layup/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-3.5#358

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#352
First Shot-4.8#334
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#325
Layups/Dunks-4.7#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#294
Freethrows+3.6#16
Improvement+3.9#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.6% 10.3% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 35.0% 25.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 6.6% 8.8%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 36 @USC L 83-114 2%     0 - 1 -15.4 +4.7 -15.6
  Wed, Nov 12 263 Utah Tech W 79-75 35%     1 - 1 -1.5 +10.8 -12.0
  Fri, Nov 14 110 @Hawaii L 56-86 8%     1 - 2 -23.4 -11.3 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80-73 89%     2 - 2 -16.0 +5.3 -20.6
  Fri, Nov 21 45 @Texas A&M L 68-109 2%     2 - 3 -26.8 -3.0 -21.4
  Wed, Nov 26 294 Wagner L 101-103 OT 53%     2 - 4 -12.1 +14.0 -25.9
  Sat, Nov 29 330 @Army L 78-81 OT 43%     2 - 5 -10.4 -2.1 -8.1
  Fri, Dec 5 277 Fairfield W 70-66 49%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -5.2 -10.1 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 7 163 @Marist L 68-80 13%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -9.3 -4.1 -4.3
  Sat, Dec 13 197 @Fordham L 53-82 17%     3 - 7 -28.3 -14.7 -15.8
  Thu, Dec 18 152 Furman L 68-75 25%     3 - 8 -9.4 -6.1 -3.3
  Sun, Dec 21 280 Presbyterian L 69-70 49%    
  Mon, Dec 29 347 @Rider L 69-70 48%    
  Fri, Jan 2 158 Quinnipiac L 77-83 27%    
  Sun, Jan 4 265 @Merrimack L 68-75 26%    
  Fri, Jan 9 342 Canisius W 72-67 67%    
  Sun, Jan 11 353 Niagara W 75-68 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 277 @Fairfield L 74-80 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 172 Siena L 71-76 31%    
  Mon, Jan 19 158 @Quinnipiac L 74-86 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 171 @Iona L 75-86 14%    
  Fri, Jan 30 347 Rider W 72-67 69%    
  Sun, Feb 1 302 @Mount St. Mary's L 73-78 33%    
  Thu, Feb 5 291 St. Peter's W 71-70 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 270 Sacred Heart L 80-81 48%    
  Fri, Feb 13 353 @Niagara W 72-71 53%    
  Sun, Feb 15 342 @Canisius L 69-70 46%    
  Fri, Feb 20 163 Marist L 68-74 29%    
  Fri, Feb 27 291 @St. Peter's L 68-73 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 171 Iona L 78-83 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.1 4.3 1.1 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.4 5.4 1.7 0.1 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.0 5.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 4.5 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.4 1.9 0.2 10.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.7 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.2 7.7 11.5 14.2 15.3 14.2 11.5 8.1 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 73.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.5% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.4
13-7 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
12-8 5.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.3
11-9 8.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 8.0
10-10 11.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.4
9-11 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.1
8-12 15.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.2
7-13 14.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 4.2% 4.2
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%