Marquette
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.5 87
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 123
Pace 71.9 92
Improvement +4.3 38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 99 C+ C B C- A
Defense B- 77 C+ C+ A- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 10 C 59% 154 +5.5 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 354 C 38% 166 -4.9 360
Three Pointers 45% 101 C- 32% 251 +0.9 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.3 3 C- -0.7 196
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 124
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 150 C- 1.00 224 C 0.31 166
Turnovers B 14.4% 40
Freethrows C 0.31 185 D+ 69% 284 C- 0.21 210
Total Offense B- +3.0 99

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 77 B 8.5% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 34 C- 5.9% 241
Three Pointers B 90% 53 C 1.0% 208
Total B+ 65% 31 B- 4.9% 104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 C+ 56% 134 +0.2 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 164 B 35% 67 -0.6 147
Three Pointers 39% 241 C+ 33% 138 -1.4 121
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 175 B- -1.8 106
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 115
Second Chance C- 31.6% 227 B- 0.96 76 C+ 0.30 154
Turnovers A- 20.5% 26
Freethrows B- 0.27 65 D 75% 311 B- 0.20 102
Total Defense B- +3.5 77

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 331 C 10.8% 186
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 225 B- 6.8% 73
Three Pointers B- 81% 94 C- 0.6% 227
Total C- 59% 252 C 6.0% 147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 15 18.8 346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 9 0.16 156
Improvement +3.6 #31 +0.7 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 103 88 71
Conference Record 4 - 16 5 - 15 7 - 13
Conference Finish 11 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 73% 48% 86%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 11
Quad 22 - 72 - 18
Quad 34 - 36 - 21
Quad 45 - 011 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 316 Albany W 80 - 53 95% +13  90% 1 - 0 B+ +14 F+ -9 D+ F F+ A+ +22 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 5 267 Southern W 100 - 82 92% +9  88% 2 - 0 B +9 A- +9 A- D- A+ C- -2 D C C
 Sun, Nov 9 37 Indiana L 77 - 100 24% -12  5% 2 - 1 D -9 C +1 F A+ F+ F+ -9 C- D- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 49 94% +18  86% 3 - 1 A+ +29 A +12 A D- A A+ +19 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 107 Maryland L 82 - 89 70% -3  28% 3 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ B+ D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 88 Dayton L 71 - 77 OT 62% -5  9% 3 - 3 C- -3 F -10 D D+ D- A +9 F+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 274 Central Michigan W 85 - 71 92% +5  90% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B+ F+ A- C+ +1 B- A D
 Fri, Nov 28 51 Oklahoma L 74 - 75 34% +4  76% 4 - 4 B +10 B+ +8 B F+ A+ C+ +2 C+ D C-
 Tue, Dec 2 161 Valparaiso W 75 - 72 OT 82% -2  23% 5 - 4 C -0 D- -8 F+ D- C- A- +7 D B- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 29 @Wisconsin L 76 - 96 14% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 B F A+ C+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 8 @Purdue L 59 - 79 6% -16  0% 5 - 6 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A C- B+ +6 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 74 Georgetown L 69 - 78 56% -2  42% 5 - 7 0 - 1 C- -4 C +1 D B+ A+ D -6 B- F C
 Sat, Dec 20 60 @Creighton L 63 - 84 29% -14  19% 5 - 8 0 - 2 D -9 F -14 F F+ C A- +7 B- B- B-
 Tue, Dec 30 56 Seton Hall L 73 - 79 48% +2  60% 5 - 9 0 - 3 C +1 B- +5 D+ C- A+ D+ -3 A+ F B
 Sun, Jan 4 9 @Connecticut L 57 - 73 7% -11  0% 5 - 10 0 - 4 B- +7 D -6 D D+ A- A+ +12 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 7 82 Xavier W 66 - 65 60% +5  94% 6 - 10 1 - 4 B- +5 F+ -9 F A+ F+ A+ +14 B+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 31 Villanova L 73 - 76 30% -3  2% 6 - 11 1 - 5 B +9 A- +11 A D+ A+ C- -2 D- C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 13 20 @St. John's L 68 - 92 10% -11  0% 6 - 12 1 - 6 C- -3 C- -1 A+ F F C -1 C C- B
 Fri, Jan 16 93 @DePaul L 75 - 80 40% +0  50% 6 - 13 1 - 7 C+ +4 A +13 A+ F A+ F+ -9 D+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 64 Providence W 105 - 104 OT 53% +3  71% 7 - 13 2 - 7 B- +7 A +13 A- A A+ D- -7 D+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 78 @Butler L 76 - 87 35% -5  2% 7 - 14 2 - 8 C -0 B- +4 B A D- D+ -4 B- F B-
 Tue, Jan 27 60 Creighton W 86 - 62 51% +17  92% 8 - 14 3 - 8 A+ +30 A +13 A+ C- A+ A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 56 @Seton Hall L 64 - 69 26% +2  62% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B- +8 B+ +8 C- A+ D C -0 C F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 Butler W 70 - 55 58% +8  85% 9 - 15 4 - 9 A +20 C- -2 A+ F C- A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 31 @Villanova L 74 - 77 15% -3  25% 9 - 16 4 - 10 A- +15 B +7 A- A- F A- +8 A D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 82 @Xavier L 88 - 96 37% -11  1% 9 - 17 4 - 11 C+ +2 A +14 B A A F -12 D- D- D+
 Wed, Feb 18 20 St. John's L 70 - 76 22% -3  13% 9 - 18 4 - 12 B +9 B- +4 C+ B- A+ B +4 B- B- A-
 Tue, Feb 24 74 @Georgetown L 74 - 78 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 93 DePaul W 74 - 71 63%
 Wed, Mar 4 64 @Providence L 83 - 88 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 9 Connecticut L 68 - 78 17%
Totals 10 - 21 5 - 15 +6 B- +3 A+ C- A B- +3 C- D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C C C- C- 47% 17% 45% A C+ C+ C- C B C D+ C- B- C+ B C+ B- 40% 21% 39% C C+ C- B- C+ A- B- D B-
1.13 59% 38% 32% -1 +2 1.05 32% 1.0 .31 14% .31 69% .21 1.04 56% 35% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.0 .30 21% .27 75% .23
Nov
3		 Albany F+ C- A+ F D- 49% 6% 45% A D+ B- F F F+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C A+ F C D- A+ C- D- D+
1.04 57% 100% 24% -4 +3 1.00 38% 0.6 .23 18% .62 69% .43 0.69 44% 0% 18% -23 0 0.56 39% 0.9 .37 30% .26 71% .19
Nov
5		 Southern A- A+ C+ B B+ 33% 8% 59% B+ A- D D D- A+ F B D- C- C+ B- C C- 56% 16% 27% F D B- D C C F D F
1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23 1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32
Nov
9		 Indiana C D- F F F 51% 21% 28% A F A A A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B- C+ F D+ 42% 16% 42% B- C- C+ F D- D- D+ D- D
1.02 46% 10% 23% -17 +1 0.70 37% 1.3 .47 20% .55 88% .48 1.32 58% 44% 46% +9 +1 1.21 29% 1.4 .40 11% .36 83% .30
Nov
12		 Arkansas Little Rock A B+ F A+ A- 59% 4% 37% A+ A A- F D- A B- F C- A+ C A+ D A 36% 30% 34% D+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ C
1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19 0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15
Nov
15		 Maryland C- D A+ F F 42% 3% 55% A F A+ A A+ B+ B C- B- D+ F F C F 49% 10% 41% F F A+ F A+ C- D- F F
1.06 50% 50% 24% -12 +3 0.84 39% 1.3 .49 14% .33 68% .23 1.15 68% 60% 33% +7 +2 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 17% .42 85% .36
Nov
19		 Dayton F F A+ F+ D- 33% 18% 49% B- D B- F D+ D- D B C- A B F F D- 56% 7% 38% F F+ A+ F C+ A+ D- A- C-
0.88 44% 50% 30% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20 0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32
Nov
22		 Central Michigan C+ A F D B- 57% 2% 40% A+ B+ F+ C- F+ A- A+ F A+ C+ D+ A+ B B 40% 31% 29% C+ B- F+ A+ A D B D+ B-
1.19 70% 0% 32% +5 +4 1.19 28% 1.1 .31 13% .56 63% .35 1.00 61% 28% 29% -4 -1 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 15% .23 71% .17
Nov
28		 Oklahoma B+ F A+ A- B- 41% 14% 45% A- B A F F+ A+ D+ C D+ C+ F A+ D C 35% 19% 46% B- C+ C+ F D C- A+ A A+
1.17 43% 71% 39% +2 +1 1.08 41% 0.5 .21 8% .26 73% .19 1.19 72% 20% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.5 .48 13% .16 67% .11
Dec
2		 Valparaiso D- F D- C F 51% 14% 35% A- F+ C F D- C- A+ A+ A+ A- F F B F+ 24% 35% 42% B+ D C+ B- B- A+ A+ B- A+
0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43 0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14
Dec
6		 Wisconsin C- B- F C+ C+ 49% 10% 41% A+ B D- F F A+ C+ F F+ C+ D A- F F+ 28% 11% 60% B- D- A A+ A+ B+ F F+ F
0.97 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.03 17% 0.5 .09 10% .27 47% .13 1.22 67% 33% 44% +11 0 1.25 24% 0.8 .18 15% .44 83% .36
Dec
13		 Purdue D+ F F D- F 24% 22% 54% C+ F A+ C A C- A A- A B+ F C+ B- C 34% 21% 45% C C F B+ D A+ C F+ C-
0.91 45% 20% 28% -12 -1 0.76 37% 1.1 .39 18% .28 73% .21 1.21 88% 40% 33% +10 0 1.21 46% 1.1 .50 21% .29 80% .23
Dec
17		 Georgetown C C- F F F+ 48% 10% 42% A+ D C+ A+ B+ A+ F F+ F D C C A+ B 52% 22% 26% D- B- F D F C F+ F F
1.07 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 11% .21 67% .14 1.21 58% 40% 25% -3 +1 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .42 87% .36
Dec
20		 Creighton F F F C F 54% 9% 37% A+ F F+ D- F+ C A F B- A- A- C- F+ B- 34% 21% 45% B- B- A+ F B- B- D D- D-
0.82 39% 0% 33% -14 +3 0.79 19% 0.9 .17 16% .31 55% .17 1.09 53% 42% 40% +3 0 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 16% .31 80% .25
Dec
30		 Seton Hall B- F D+ D+ D 46% 6% 48% A D+ C- D+ C- A+ A C- A- D+ B+ A+ A- A+ 48% 19% 33% D A+ F F F B F D F
1.02 40% 33% 31% -11 +3 0.85 28% 0.8 .23 11% .43 70% .30 1.11 50% 10% 28% -12 +1 0.80 49% 1.3 .61 18% .50 76% .38
Jan
4		 Connecticut D F+ F F F 55% 4% 42% A+ D C+ F D+ A- C- F D A+ D+ A A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% C+ A+ D A+ B C D- B D+
0.83 41% 0% 23% -18 +3 0.74 27% 0.7 .18 16% .33 63% .21 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +1 0.92 40% 0.9 .36 16% .37 67% .24
Jan
7		 Xavier F+ D- D F F 54% 12% 35% A+ F A+ C+ A+ F+ B+ F D A+ A+ B+ F B+ 28% 30% 42% B+ B+ C+ A+ A A+ C C+ C
0.93 50% 33% 22% -11 +2 0.85 44% 0.9 .40 21% .32 50% .16 0.92 43% 33% 43% 0 -2 0.98 26% 0.6 .16 23% .26 71% .18
Jan
10		 Villanova A- C+ A+ B+ B+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A B- F D+ A+ B A+ A- C- F F A- D- 37% 16% 47% C D- A+ F C+ B- A+ F A+
1.15 59% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.14 33% 0.7 .23 14% .28 80% .22 1.20 74% 88% 29% +10 +1 1.24 26% 1.3 .35 16% .13 100% .13
Jan
13		 St. John's C- B- A+ B- A- 64% 5% 32% A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ C 54% 16% 30% D+ C D+ C+ C- B C+ F D-
0.91 57% 50% 36% +1 +4 1.11 21% 0.4 .09 25% .49 63% .31 1.23 61% 56% 24% 0 +2 1.05 41% 1.2 .47 16% .38 88% .34
Jan
16		 DePaul A A C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B+ A+ D F F A+ F F F F+ C- A- F D 36% 26% 38% B D+ F D F F A A+ A+
1.16 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.26 23% 0.4 .09 11% .23 38% .09 1.24 61% 31% 42% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.3 .51 12% .23 54% .12
Jan
19		 Providence A A+ B+ F B+ 56% 15% 30% A+ A- B- A+ A A+ A+ F A- D- C B- F D+ 46% 15% 38% C- D+ F D+ F A+ F F F
1.29 74% 44% 22% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.3 .41 7% .40 63% .25 1.28 63% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.21 45% 1.2 .55 21% .51 88% .45
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
23		 Butler B- A+ A+ F B- 42% 13% 44% B+ B A B+ A D- B- D- C D+ C- F A+ B 53% 13% 34% D B- D F F B- F D F
1.08 77% 71% 17% +2 +1 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 60% 50% 25% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 16% .52 74% .39
Jan
27		 Creighton A A+ F B+ A+ 53% 9% 38% A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A+ A F C+ A+ F F A+ A- 24% 24% 53% A A- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+
1.25 76% 0% 38% +8 +3 1.24 20% 1.3 .27 9% .30 53% .16 0.90 85% 54% 21% 0 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 20% .07 75% .05
Jan
31		 Seton Hall B+ F F A+ D+ 50% 14% 36% B+ C- B- A+ A+ D F F F C C- B+ F D+ 46% 33% 21% A- C F F F A+ A+ F+ A+
1.03 33% 17% 47% -9 +2 0.88 33% 2.2 .73 26% .19 56% .11 1.11 59% 31% 40% 0 -1 1.00 44% 1.3 .56 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
7		 Butler C- F A+ A+ A 37% 4% 59% A A+ F F F C- D F D- A+ A A+ C- A+ 47% 16% 38% C A+ D A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 47% +8 +2 1.22 13% 0.5 .07 18% .18 60% .11 0.82 48% 14% 35% -8 +1 0.89 40% 0.4 .14 24% .29 60% .18
Feb
10		 Villanova B A- A+ D- B+ 42% 9% 49% A+ A- F+ A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ A- A- A+ C- A+ 32% 9% 60% D+ A D+ C- D+ B F A+ F
1.06 67% 75% 29% +3 +2 1.12 21% 1.8 .38 26% .38 90% .35 1.10 53% 0% 36% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .41 17% .53 58% .31
Feb
14		 Xavier A A D F+ B- 51% 15% 34% A B B- A+ A A F B F F A+ F+ F F+ 27% 24% 49% C+ D- F C D- D+ F+ F F
1.22 71% 33% 29% +3 +2 1.11 30% 1.3 .38 12% .17 73% .13 1.33 47% 46% 48% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.0 .36 11% .33 86% .28
Feb
18		 St. John's B- C- A- F+ C+ 45% 21% 34% B- C+ C- A+ B- A+ C B C B A F B- B- 38% 17% 46% B B- B- C+ B- A- D+ A- C
1.02 50% 45% 28% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.2 .32 15% .27 75% .21 1.11 44% 63% 32% -3 0 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .42 67% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 1.4 1.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 5.2 0.4 5.7 7th
8th 4.4 4.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.7 15.5 0.7 16.8 9th
10th 11.2 11.1 0.0 22.4 10th
11th 15.3 27.2 1.5 44.0 11th
Total 15.3 39.1 32.6 11.5 1.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
7-13 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.1 0.0 11.4
6-14 32.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 32.5
5-15 39.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 39.0
4-16 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.6 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 9.3%