Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #268
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #267
Pace 68.0 #224
Improvement +1.2 #116

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #222 C D- D+ C C-
Defense #297 D A+ C+ F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #235 1.14 #200 -1.5 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.78 #140 +1.4 #101
Three Pointers 40% #192 0.98 #222 -1.0 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #206 -1.1 #205
Freethrows 14.8 #301 69% #294 10.2 #312
Second Chance 25.9% #307 1.04 #182 0.27 #278
Turnovers 17.2% #209
Total Offense -2.1 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.20 #238 -3.9 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #144 0.66 #69 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 35% #322 1.19 #346 +0.0 #191
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #284 -3.3 #285
Freethrows 11.8 #8 72% #163 8.5 #357
Second Chance 26.4% #52 1.16 #308 0.31 #151
Turnovers 13.5% #333
Total Defense -3.9 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #251 0.6% #221
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #189 5.9% #285
Possession Length 16.7 #128 17.7 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.14 #79
Improvement +0.9 #121 +0.2 #163

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 19.2% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 79.6% 84.3% 61.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 90.9% 73.3%
Conference Champion 19.9% 22.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four10.6% 10.8% 9.8%
First Round12.6% 13.8% 7.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 416 - 716 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 75 @Dayton L 71-77 7%     -3.8   0 - 1 +4.7 +9.8 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 11 361 @Morgan St. W 81-79 75%     5.8   1 - 1 -11.1 -0.1 -11.1
  Sun, Nov 16 303 Wagner W 71-70 OT 69%     -0.8   2 - 1 -10.0 -13.0 +2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 70 @George Washington L 52-89 6%     -23.6   2 - 2 -25.8 -19.7 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 29 351 Delaware St. W 71-57 83%     8.0   3 - 2 -2.0 -0.3 -0.9
  Wed, Dec 3 105 @Georgetown L 81-90 10%     -11.0   3 - 3 -1.1 +15.0 -16.5
  Sat, Dec 6 312 @Bucknell W 73-66 49%     4.2   4 - 3 +1.3 +6.4 -4.5
  Tue, Dec 9 182 Buffalo L 79-83 44%     0.9   4 - 4 -8.4 +5.5 -14.1
  Fri, Dec 12 324 Army L 60-63 75%     -4.8   4 - 5 -15.9 -15.8 -0.2
  Sun, Dec 21 88 @South Florida L 69-94 8%     -15.0   4 - 6 -15.5 -2.6 -11.8
  Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93-59 85%     17.6   5 - 6 +16.9 +11.4 +4.6
  Thu, Jan 8 343 Maine W 71-62 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 339 New Hampshire W 75-67 79%    
  Thu, Jan 15 308 @Bryant L 70-71 48%    
  Mon, Jan 19 362 @Binghamton W 76-69 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 355 NJIT W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 300 Umass Lowell W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 183 @Vermont L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 @Albany W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Feb 5 362 Binghamton W 79-66 89%    
  Thu, Feb 12 343 @Maine W 68-65 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 339 @New Hampshire W 72-70 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 183 Vermont L 72-74 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 323 Albany W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 308 Bryant W 73-68 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 300 @Umass Lowell L 76-77 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 355 @NJIT W 73-69 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.0 6.2 4.4 1.8 0.3 19.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 6.2 10.3 8.1 3.0 0.4 29.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.4 8.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.9 1.0 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.3 10.5 14.5 16.5 16.0 13.7 9.2 4.8 1.8 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
14-2 91.3% 4.4    3.5 0.9
13-3 67.5% 6.2    3.8 2.3 0.1
12-4 36.4% 5.0    2.1 2.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 11.4% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 11.8 6.5 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 45.6% 45.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.8% 38.1% 38.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.1
14-2 4.8% 35.9% 35.9% 15.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 3.1
13-3 9.2% 30.0% 30.0% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.2 6.5
12-4 13.7% 25.5% 25.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.2
11-5 16.0% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8 13.1
10-6 16.5% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7 13.8
9-7 14.5% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7 12.7
8-8 10.5% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 1.0 9.5
7-9 6.3% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.5 5.8
6-10 3.7% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 3.5
5-11 1.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-12 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 15.2 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 6.5 38.7 48.4 6.5