Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#296
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#327
Pace80.0#12
Improvement+1.8#69

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#204
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#343
Layup/Dunks+3.2#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#135
Freethrows-1.7#272
Improvement+0.3#154

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#337
First Shot-5.6#339
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#200
Layups/Dunks-5.5#341
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows-0.6#233
Improvement+1.5#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.1% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 15.4% 30.9% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 54.7% 41.5%
Conference Champion 3.4% 5.4% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.9% 5.7% 9.5%
First Four2.9% 3.6% 2.7%
First Round2.7% 4.4% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 54-103 3%     0 - 1 -33.1 -18.4 -8.2
  Nov 14, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 92-67 92%     1 - 1 +2.2 +8.4 -6.9
  Nov 16, 2024 209   St. Peter's L 61-69 44%     1 - 2 -13.3 -2.3 -12.3
  Nov 19, 2024 264   Hampton L 68-78 57%     1 - 3 -18.8 -2.5 -17.3
  Nov 23, 2024 268   Boston University L 71-75 58%     1 - 4 -13.0 -6.6 -6.3
  Nov 25, 2024 284   Howard W 95-77 60%     2 - 4 +8.5 +16.2 -7.5
  Nov 27, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 92-69 76%     3 - 4 +8.8 +1.8 +4.5
  Dec 02, 2024 98   @ Georgetown L 62-86 8%     3 - 5 -15.6 -14.2 +1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 147   @ Towson L 66-77 16%    
  Dec 18, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech L 77-90 10%    
  Dec 21, 2024 242   @ Marist L 71-77 30%    
  Dec 29, 2024 236   @ American L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 322   @ Binghamton L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 347   @ NJIT W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 16, 2025 350   New Hampshire W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 211   Maine L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 237   @ Albany L 82-88 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 183   @ Vermont L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 30, 2025 176   Bryant L 87-90 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 154   Umass Lowell L 83-87 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 350   @ New Hampshire W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 211   @ Maine L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   Binghamton W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 176   @ Bryant L 84-93 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 154   @ Umass Lowell L 80-90 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   NJIT W 80-72 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 237   Albany W 86-85 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   Vermont L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.5 0.2 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.9 2.0 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.7 7.4 2.6 0.1 17.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 7.6 7.6 2.5 0.2 20.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.4 5.4 1.5 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.2 7.7 11.5 14.9 15.5 14.6 11.9 8.0 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-2 95.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-3 84.4% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 49.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-5 14.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 29.6% 29.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.3% 23.6% 23.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.2% 19.1% 19.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
12-4 2.5% 16.2% 16.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1
11-5 5.0% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.4
10-6 8.0% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.5 7.5
9-7 11.9% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.2
8-8 14.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 14.0
7-9 15.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 15.1
6-10 14.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 14.6
5-11 11.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.4
4-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-13 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-14 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%