Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.9 232
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 237
Pace 66.7 237
Improvement +4.4 33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 228 C- F+ B- C- C-
Defense C- 228 D+ C+ F+ A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 C 58% 163 -1.3 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 188 C- 37% 206 +0.8 134
Three Pointers 41% 175 C- 32% 246 -0.9 214
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 248 C- -1.0 209
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 217
Second Chance F+ 21.5% 353 C- 0.99 239 F+ 0.21 351
Turnovers B- 15.5% 93
Freethrows D+ 0.28 271 B- 75% 96 C- 0.21 227
Total Offense C- -2.1 228

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 317 C 11.2% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 299 B- 3.9% 95
Three Pointers D+ 79% 284 C+ 0.7% 144
Total D- 47% 332 C+ 5.2% 137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 C- 59% 218 +2.6 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 C 39% 211 -0.4 160
Three Pointers 38% 270 D+ 36% 277 -0.3 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 231 D+ +1.9 253
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 253
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 113 C 1.04 207 C+ 0.30 147
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 352
Freethrows A- 0.23 14 B+ 69% 32 A- 0.16 12
Total Defense C- -1.7 228

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 10 D- 5.8% 347
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 53 D 2.4% 312
Three Pointers D 89% 314 C- 0.7% 211
Total B 49% 51 D- 3.2% 340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 188 17.9 274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 211 0.13 55
Improvement +1.3 #124 +3.1 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 36% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 89% 94% 72%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four15% 13% 20%
First Round28% 30% 22%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 420 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 88 @Dayton L 71 - 77 11% -4  14% 0 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 C+ B+ C- C- -3 D+ D D-
 Tue, Nov 11 352 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 75% +6  77% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 A+ F F D- -7 D F+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 324 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 82% -1  38% 2 - 1 D- -12 F -17 F B+ F B +5 B C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 80 @George Washington L 52 - 89 10% -24  0% 2 - 2 F -27 F -22 F F D D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 361 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 92% +8  97% 3 - 2 D+ -6 D -6 C F C C+ +1 C+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 74 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 9% -11  0% 3 - 3 C+ +2 A +13 B B A+ F -12 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 330 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 66% +1  53% 4 - 3 C -1 C +1 B F D+ C- -2 C+ D F
 Tue, Dec 9 214 Buffalo L 79 - 83 58% +1  57% 4 - 4 D -10 C+ +2 B- C C+ F -13 F C+ D+
 Fri, Dec 12 337 Army L 60 - 63 84% -5  12% 4 - 5 F+ -18 F -20 F F B B- +2 B B+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 57 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  1% 4 - 6 D- -13 D+ -4 D C- D+ D- -8 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 86% +18  98% 5 - 6 A +18 A- +10 D+ A+ B A- +8 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 346 Maine W 69 - 62 86% +6  79% 6 - 6 1 - 0 D -9 D+ -4 D+ F A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 343 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 86% -3  13% 7 - 6 2 - 0 F+ -15 C+ +3 B+ F A+ F -17 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 354 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 76% -1  24% 7 - 7 2 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 C+ F D- F -11 F F C
 Mon, Jan 19 359 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 80% +9  81% 8 - 7 3 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 C+ D- A B- +2 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 22 315 NJIT W 87 - 74 79% +14  98% 9 - 7 4 - 1 C +1 B +7 B D A+ D- -6 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 310 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 78% +12  98% 10 - 7 5 - 1 B +11 C+ +2 C F+ C- A +10 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 229 @Vermont L 55 - 64 38% -2  22% 10 - 8 5 - 2 D -10 F -16 F D- B B+ +5 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 316 @Albany W 68 - 65 60% -3  21% 11 - 8 6 - 2 C- -4 D -4 B- F C+ C+ +1 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 359 Binghamton W 79 - 62 91% +11  99% 12 - 8 7 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 D F A+ C +0 C A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 346 @Maine W 78 - 62 71% +12  80% 13 - 8 8 - 2 B- +6 B- +5 D+ F+ A+ B- +2 B C F
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @New Hampshire W 85 - 63 71% +18  95% 14 - 8 9 - 2 B+ +12 B+ +9 A F+ B+ B +4 F+ A+ C
 Thu, Feb 19 229 Vermont W 75 - 62 61% +10  96% 15 - 8 10 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 F+ C- B- A- +8 A+ B F
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Albany W 77 - 68 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 354 Bryant W 76 - 63 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 310 @Umass Lowell W 76 - 74 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 315 @NJIT W 73 - 70 60%
Totals 18 - 9 13 - 3 -4 C- -2 C C- C- C- -2 C- B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- C- C- 36% 37% 41% C- C- F+ C- F+ B- D+ B- C- C- C- C D+ D+ 42% 20% 38% C- D+ C+ C C+ F+ A- B+ A-
1.06 58% 37% 32% -1 0 0.99 22% 1.0 .21 15% .28 75% .21 1.11 59% 39% 36% +2 0 1.07 29% 1.0 .30 13% .23 69% .19
Nov
8		 Dayton B D C+ B+ C+ 28% 26% 46% D+ C+ B B B+ C- F A+ F+ C- F D+ B+ D- 39% 24% 37% A D+ A- F D D- C- D D+
1.07 50% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16 1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33
Nov
11		 Morgan St. D+ A+ A A A+ 45% 5% 50% B A+ F F F F C D- D+ D- A A+ F D+ 45% 22% 33% F D D- F+ F+ F A+ D+ A+
1.13 75% 50% 41% +13 +3 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 25% .45 67% .30 1.10 42% 23% 47% -4 0 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
16		 Wagner F D+ C F F 35% 27% 38% F+ F C+ A+ B+ F A+ D A+ B A- F A+ B+ 50% 24% 26% D B B+ D- C+ C+ C+ A B-
0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38 0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16
Nov
19		 George Washington F B- F F F 39% 20% 41% C F F C- F D B F C D+ D A+ F F 47% 7% 47% C- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ A A+
0.73 63% 0% 20% -14 0 0.73 15% 1.0 .15 20% .32 61% .19 1.25 67% 25% 48% +13 +2 1.33 26% 0.8 .19 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
29		 Delaware St. D B- F B+ C- 47% 13% 40% B- C D F F C F D F C+ C A- B C 35% 52% 13% A+ C+ C- C- C- F A+ F A
1.07 68% 14% 38% +4 +2 1.13 27% 0.7 .18 18% .17 67% .11 0.86 53% 29% 29% -8 -4 0.78 25% 0.8 .20 14% .16 78% .12
Dec
3		 Georgetown A B- A+ C- B+ 34% 29% 38% C- B C+ A B A+ C- A C+ F F A+ F F 42% 18% 40% D F A+ F D+ F A+ B+ A+
1.21 58% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.2 .36 10% .27 81% .22 1.34 71% 20% 48% +11 +1 1.25 24% 1.7 .41 9% .16 70% .11
Dec
6		 Bucknell C B B+ A+ B+ 37% 28% 35% D+ B F D+ F D+ D A- C- C- C- A+ B C+ 38% 20% 42% C+ C+ F B+ D F D+ B+ C
1.13 65% 46% 44% +10 -1 1.20 23% 1.0 .23 19% .29 80% .23 1.02 58% 20% 29% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.9 .33 14% .31 71% .22
Dec
9		 Buffalo C+ C+ A+ C+ B+ 30% 23% 47% D- B- D- A- C C+ F A+ F+ F F+ F F F 50% 21% 29% C- F D- A C+ D+ C+ F D
1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14 1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28
Dec
12		 Army F B D- F F 28% 25% 47% D- F F F F B F+ F F B- A+ A+ D A- 55% 4% 40% F B B A- B+ D F F F
0.91 67% 31% 28% -4 -1 0.92 20% 0.8 .15 12% .28 38% .10 0.95 38% 0% 37% -11 +3 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 15% .36 80% .29
Dec
21		 South Florida D+ C- B F D+ 35% 35% 30% D- D D- A- C- D+ D B+ C- D- C- A+ F F+ 54% 4% 42% D- F B+ F D F A+ C+ A
0.94 53% 42% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 21% .28 75% .21 1.29 58% 0% 42% +4 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 11% .28 72% .20
Dec
29		 Coppin St. A- F C+ A+ D 43% 10% 47% B D+ C A+ A+ B C+ F F+ A- D A+ C+ C+ 38% 19% 42% D- C A+ F A- D- B+ C+ B+
1.29 45% 40% 46% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.9 .68 14% .37 57% .21 0.82 60% 0% 32% -8 0 0.87 15% 1.2 .18 19% .26 67% .17
Jan
8		 Maine D+ B- F A D+ 51% 29% 20% C- D+ F+ F F A+ A B A D+ A F A+ B- 42% 25% 33% C B- F+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.07 64% 14% 40% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 12% .41 74% .30 0.96 45% 62% 18% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 14% .20 55% .11
Jan
10		 New Hampshire C+ C+ B+ A+ A- 43% 21% 36% C B+ F F F A+ D- B+ D+ F F+ F C+ F 62% 6% 32% F F F F+ F D- B+ A+ A+
1.19 61% 45% 42% +7 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 6% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 67% 31% +4 +4 1.18 35% 1.1 .39 16% .21 45% .09
Jan
15		 Bryant D B F B B- 31% 14% 55% D+ C+ F F F D- B A+ A F F C+ D- F 52% 10% 38% F F F D- F C B A+ B+
1.08 63% 29% 39% +4 0 1.12 16% 0.8 .13 16% .35 85% .30 1.15 70% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.21 38% 1.1 .41 22% .22 67% .15
Jan
19		 Binghamton B- B- B+ B+ B- 47% 25% 28% D+ C+ F A+ D- A F B F B- D+ A C- C- 41% 29% 31% B- C- C C- C F A+ A+ A+
1.23 64% 46% 40% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.8 .26 8% .21 75% .15 0.95 60% 29% 33% -2 -1 0.96 19% 0.9 .17 13% .27 47% .13
Jan
22		 NJIT B A+ A F B+ 36% 26% 38% D B F A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ D- D- A D D- 42% 26% 32% D+ D- F B+ D+ D- F+ A+ C+
1.24 78% 46% 26% +5 -1 1.10 19% 1.5 .29 9% .47 77% .36 1.06 64% 29% 35% 0 -1 1.02 35% 0.8 .28 14% .38 52% .20
Jan
24		 Umass Lowell C+ B- C- C- C- 50% 21% 29% C C F C+ F+ C- A A+ A+ A A F A+ A 40% 19% 42% C A- B+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+
1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33 0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10
Jan
29		 Vermont F C F F F 26% 21% 53% C- F F A+ D- B B C- B- B+ A+ F D C- 27% 13% 60% C C A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D
0.86 58% 20% 20% -15 -1 0.70 14% 1.4 .19 11% .37 71% .26 1.00 42% 67% 37% +2 0 1.07 15% 0.6 .09 14% .40 59% .24
Jan
31		 Albany D D- A+ A+ C+ 54% 12% 34% A- B- F F F C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ C A B- B- 39% 14% 47% D+ C+ D F F C+ A A+ A
1.07 50% 60% 43% +3 +2 1.12 19% 0.0 .00 14% .50 81% .41 1.03 58% 29% 30% -4 +1 0.96 35% 1.2 .41 21% .16 50% .08
Feb
5		 Binghamton C- F+ B B- D- 42% 16% 42% C D F+ F F A+ D+ B- C- C A F A+ D+ 28% 32% 40% A+ C A+ A+ A+ F B+ F B-
1.19 50% 44% 38% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.8 .20 5% .30 74% .22 0.94 43% 63% 25% -2 -2 0.94 6% 0.0 .00 12% .31 83% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Maine B- C- A+ F C- 42% 29% 29% D D+ D- D- F+ A+ B A+ A+ B- A A B A- 42% 15% 44% D- B A- F C F F D F
1.15 59% 53% 20% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.9 .29 9% .36 86% .31 0.92 45% 29% 29% -10 +1 0.83 14% 1.4 .19 15% .43 68% .29
Feb
14		 New Hampshire B+ A- A+ A- A+ 31% 25% 44% D- A F C F+ B+ C- A C+ B F A+ B- F 33% 13% 54% C+ F+ C+ A+ A+ C F B- F+
1.24 69% 54% 39% +11 -1 1.21 21% 1.0 .21 12% .31 84% .26 0.92 75% 17% 31% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.1 .03 19% .36 65% .23
Feb
19		 Vermont C- C+ F B+ D- 27% 27% 47% D F+ C- C- C- B- A A- A+ A- A+ A+ D+ A+ 34% 17% 48% C A+ A C- B F A+ F+ A
1.11 62% 8% 39% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 12% .42 80% .34 0.92 40% 10% 36% -10 0 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 10% .17 80% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.8 20.9 41.4 26.2 89.4 1st
2nd 0.1 4.4 4.5 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.2 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.5 6.4 25.4 41.4 26.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 26.2    26.2
13-3 100.0% 41.4    37.5 3.9
12-4 82.4% 20.9    4.7 12.6 3.7
11-5 12.5% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 89.4% 89.4 68.4 16.6 4.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 26.2% 40.1% 40.1% 15.2 0.0 1.0 6.2 3.3 15.7
13-3 41.4% 36.2% 36.2% 15.9 0.0 1.6 13.3 26.4
12-4 25.4% 30.2% 30.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.3 17.8
11-5 6.4% 26.4% 26.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7 4.7
10-6 0.5% 22.6% 22.6% 16.0 0.1 0.4
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 15.7 65.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.5% 100.0% 15.2 0.1 9.5 59.4 30.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.4%
Lose Out 0.2%