Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #251
Pace 66.2 #249
Improvement +1.3 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #243 C- D- C+ D+ C-
Defense #266 D+ C F+ A C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.17 #158 -0.8 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #136 0.74 #193 +0.7 #131
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.96 #255 -1.3 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #221 -1.4 #217
Freethrows 0.27 #284 73% #150 0.20 #259
Second Chance 21.1% #355 0.99 #214 0.21 #354
Turnovers 16.0% #117
Total Offense -2.6 #243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.20 #236 -3.4 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.82 #289 -0.3 #209
Three Pointers 36% #303 1.09 #288 +1.0 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -2.7 #269
Freethrows 0.22 #12 68% #23 0.15 #10
Second Chance 29.5% #132 1.06 #241 0.31 #182
Turnovers 13.1% #347
Total Defense -2.9 #266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #244 0.7% #234
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #215 5.5% #287
Possession Length 17.5 #206 18.0 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #194 0.13 #46
Improvement +0.0 #179 +1.2 #120

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 26.0% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 98.5% 99.8% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 51.8% 62.9% 34.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.1% 13.4% 15.2%
First Round17.4% 19.5% 14.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 418 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 90 @Dayton L 71 - 77 10% -4  0 - 1 +3 +9 C B+ C+ -6 D+ D- D-
 Tue, Nov 11 354 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 70% +6  1 - 1 -9 +0 A+ F F -9 D+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 327 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 78% -1  2 - 1 -12 -15 F B+ F +3 B C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 80 @George Washington L 52 - 89 8% -24  2 - 2 -27 -19 F F C- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 353 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 85% +8  3 - 2 -3 -1 C F C -1 C+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 78 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 7% -11  3 - 3 +2 +17 B B A+ -16 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 313 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 53% +1  4 - 3 +1 +4 B F+ C -3 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 196 Buffalo L 79 - 83 49% +1  4 - 4 -9 +5 B- C C+ -14 F C+ C-
 Fri, Dec 12 339 Army L 60 - 63 80% -5  4 - 5 -17 -17 F+ F B- -0 B B D
 Sun, Dec 21 71 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  4 - 6 -14 -3 D C- C- -10 F+ D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 87% +18  5 - 6 +16 +9 D A+ B +6 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 337 Maine W 69 - 62 80% +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -7 -1 D+ F A+ -6 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 321 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 76% -3  7 - 6 2 - 0 -12 +6 A- F A+ -18 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 347 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 63% -1  7 - 7 2 - 1 -14 -0 B- F D+ -14 F F C
 Mon, Jan 19 361 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 77% +9  8 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +7 C+ D- A- -1 C- C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 314 NJIT W 87 - 74 74% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 +1 +10 B D+ A+ -9 D- C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 325 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 77% +12  10 - 7 5 - 1 +10 +4 C- D- C +7 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 29 223 @Vermont L 55 - 64 32% -2  10 - 8 5 - 2 -10 -14 F D- B- +3 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 317 @Albany W 68 - 65 54% -3  11 - 8 6 - 2 -3 -1 B- F C -2 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 361 Binghamton W 79 - 62 90% +11  12 - 8 7 - 2 -2 +1 D F A+ -3 C A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 337 @Maine W 67 - 64 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 321 @New Hampshire W 71 - 70 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 223 Vermont W 71 - 70 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 317 Albany W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 347 Bryant W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 @Umass Lowell W 75 - 73 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 314 @NJIT W 72 - 71 53%
Totals 16 - 11 11 - 5 -5 -3 C- D- C+ -3 D+ C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.8 9.0 21.1 15.9 4.9 51.8 1st
2nd 0.5 7.6 14.8 4.9 0.2 27.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.6 8.2 2.7 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.5 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.4 16.9 26.5 26.1 16.1 4.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 4.9    4.9
13-3 98.9% 15.9    14.3 1.7
12-4 81.0% 21.1    10.5 9.7 1.0
11-5 34.0% 9.0    1.7 4.7 2.5 0.1
10-6 4.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 51.8% 51.8 31.4 16.2 3.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 4.9% 38.7% 38.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.2 3.0
13-3 16.1% 29.6% 29.6% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.8 11.4
12-4 26.1% 26.5% 26.5% 15.9 0.4 6.6 19.2
11-5 26.5% 23.4% 23.4% 16.0 0.2 6.0 20.3
10-6 16.9% 17.8% 17.8% 16.0 0.1 3.0 13.9
9-7 7.4% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2 6.2
8-8 1.8% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.3 1.5
7-9 0.2% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 15.8 75.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 14.9 1.1 17.9 69.5 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%