Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#67
Pace75.7#32
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.0% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 32.3% 40.9% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 57.3% 41.2%
Conference Champion 7.1% 8.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 7.7% 13.9%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round6.2% 7.5% 4.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 18   @ Tennessee L 61-76 3%     0 - 1 +3.9 -1.3 +5.2
  Nov 09, 2025 251   Lipscomb W 73-70 63%    
  Nov 15, 2025 151   @ Winthrop L 76-83 25%    
  Nov 22, 2025 171   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-78 29%    
  Nov 26, 2025 244   Appalachian St. W 69-66 62%    
  Nov 29, 2025 227   @ Elon L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 02, 2025 313   Georgia St. W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 13, 2025 40   @ Clemson L 59-79 4%    
  Dec 17, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 72-86 12%    
  Dec 20, 2025 148   @ Washington St. L 75-82 26%    
  Dec 31, 2025 166   @ Furman L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 03, 2026 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 07, 2026 344   The Citadel W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 10, 2026 241   Wofford W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 15, 2026 279   @ VMI L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 17, 2026 255   @ UNC Greensboro L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 21, 2026 270   Western Carolina W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 24, 2026 241   @ Wofford L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 29, 2026 255   UNC Greensboro W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 31, 2026 279   VMI W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 05, 2026 133   @ Chattanooga L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 07, 2026 189   @ Samford L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 11, 2026 166   Furman L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 14, 2026 344   @ The Citadel W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 19, 2026 133   Chattanooga L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 21, 2026 189   Samford W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 25, 2026 270   @ Western Carolina L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 28, 2026 147   East Tennessee St. L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 4.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 6.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.1 7.2 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.5 10.8 9.6 7.3 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 97.6% 0.9    0.9 0.1
15-3 82.3% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 57.9% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.1% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 45.2% 44.3% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6%
16-2 1.0% 41.7% 41.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6%
15-3 2.0% 29.3% 29.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.5% 24.6% 24.6% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.2% 19.6% 19.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.1
12-6 7.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.4
11-7 9.6% 9.2% 9.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 8.7
10-8 10.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 10.1
9-9 11.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.0
8-10 11.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.1
7-11 10.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.1
5-13 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
4-14 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-15 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 93.3 0.0%