Mercer
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#177
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#150
Pace63.7#311
Improvement+1.6#72

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#98
First Shot+1.0#154
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#88
Layup/Dunks-1.0#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#112
Freethrows-1.7#275
Improvement+3.7#1

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#277
First Shot-3.0#274
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-3.0#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#292
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement-2.1#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.7% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 56.6% 65.9% 40.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 61.7% 49.6%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.8% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 4.3% 7.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round5.6% 6.6% 4.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 49 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 61-74 7%     0 - 1 +3.4 -3.1 +6.2
  Nov 13, 2021 157   @ Winthrop L 85-88 OT 34%     0 - 2 +0.7 +2.4 -1.3
  Nov 20, 2021 65   @ Saint Louis L 58-75 15%     0 - 3 -6.5 -7.6 +0.0
  Nov 23, 2021 309   Bucknell W 78-68 78%     1 - 3 +1.3 -2.5 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2021 190   Middle Tennessee L 58-82 52%     1 - 4 -25.0 -15.9 -8.3
  Dec 01, 2021 283   @ Kennesaw St. W 73-71 62%     2 - 4 -1.5 +6.3 -7.6
  Dec 04, 2021 145   Georgia St. W 83-77 54%     3 - 4 +4.5 +12.0 -7.1
  Dec 06, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-69 38%     4 - 4 +7.8 +12.9 -4.5
  Dec 11, 2021 196   Georgia Southern W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 19, 2021 213   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 22, 2021 262   Troy W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 29, 2021 238   @ The Citadel W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 01, 2022 88   Chattanooga L 65-68 37%    
  Jan 05, 2022 243   Samford W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 08, 2022 110   @ Furman L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 13, 2022 227   VMI W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 174   UNC Greensboro W 65-62 60%    
  Jan 19, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 243   @ Samford W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 110   Furman L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 31, 2022 124   Wofford L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 227   @ VMI L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 16, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 296   @ Western Carolina W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 238   The Citadel W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 124   @ Wofford L 67-73 28%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 3.6 1.1 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 6.0 4.1 0.8 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.4 11.0 12.9 14.2 13.2 11.1 8.3 5.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.3% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 85.4% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 57.9% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.0% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 62.2% 59.5% 2.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7%
16-2 0.5% 22.7% 21.4% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7%
15-3 1.4% 24.2% 24.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
14-4 2.9% 20.4% 20.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.6% 15.1% 15.1% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.8
12-6 8.3% 11.4% 11.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 7.3
11-7 11.1% 7.6% 7.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.3
10-8 13.2% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.4
9-9 14.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 13.6
8-10 12.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.5
7-11 11.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.8
6-12 8.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-13 5.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.3
4-14 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.7 94.2 0.0%