Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#174
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Pace75.5#41
Improvement-0.4#203

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#168
First Shot+1.4#135
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#273
Layup/Dunks-3.2#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-2.2#334

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot-3.3#294
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#35
Layups/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement+1.8#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 21.1% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 83.9% 93.0% 79.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 95.2% 83.8%
Conference Champion 20.9% 36.2% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round16.4% 21.0% 14.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 31.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 14 @Tennessee L 61-76 3%     0 - 1 +5.6 -0.8 +6.5
  Sun, Nov 9 144 Lipscomb W 92-77 53%     1 - 1 +13.2 +21.2 -7.8
  Sat, Nov 15 125 @Winthrop L 69-105 27%     1 - 2 -30.7 -14.3 -11.5
  Sat, Nov 22 259 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 55%     2 - 2 +9.6 +18.2 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 26 228 Appalachian St. W 75-67 72%     3 - 2 +0.9 +10.3 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 29 166 @Elon W 91-84 36%     4 - 2 +9.5 +7.4 +1.5
  Tue, Dec 2 330 Georgia St. W 78-67 87%     5 - 2 -2.1 -0.7 -1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 40 @Clemson L 63-70 7%     5 - 3 +8.2 +4.2 +3.3
  Wed, Dec 17 49 @Central Florida L 63-81 9%     5 - 4 -4.6 -6.9 +2.8
  Sat, Dec 20 149 @Washington St. L 78-84 32%     5 - 5 -2.2 +1.4 -3.2
  Wed, Dec 31 148 @Furman L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Jan 3 141 @East Tennessee St. L 75-80 31%    
  Wed, Jan 7 355 The Citadel W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 Wofford W 80-74 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 332 @VMI W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 294 @UNC Greensboro W 79-76 61%    
  Wed, Jan 21 299 Western Carolina W 84-75 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 220 @Wofford L 76-77 49%    
  Thu, Jan 29 294 UNC Greensboro W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 332 VMI W 85-73 87%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 @Chattanooga W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 227 @Samford L 78-79 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 148 Furman W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 355 @The Citadel W 80-70 81%    
  Thu, Feb 19 235 Chattanooga W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 227 Samford W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 299 @Western Carolina W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 141 East Tennessee St. W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.0 5.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 20.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.1 7.5 4.3 1.0 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.7 7.2 2.6 0.4 19.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.5 5.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.3 11.9 14.7 15.7 13.8 10.7 6.7 3.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.4% 3.2    2.9 0.3
15-3 85.4% 5.8    4.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 56.6% 6.0    3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.1% 3.6    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.1% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 12.9 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 56.3% 56.3% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 42.2% 42.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.3% 37.0% 37.0% 13.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.7% 31.9% 31.9% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.7% 26.6% 26.6% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 7.8
13-5 13.8% 21.4% 21.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.0 10.8
12-6 15.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.5 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 13.2
11-7 14.7% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 12.8
10-8 11.9% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 10.7
9-9 9.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 8.6
8-10 6.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.9
7-11 3.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 1.7% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.7
5-13 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.3 5.6 1.3 83.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 37.5 55.0 7.5