Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#242
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#48
Pace75.7#29
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 7.5% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 31.2% 39.6% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.8% 56.1% 39.8%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.3% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 6.9% 13.6%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round6.0% 7.4% 3.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 17   @ Tennessee L 61-76 2%     0 - 1 +4.3 -0.9 +5.3
  Nov 09, 2025 244   Lipscomb W 73-70 61%    
  Nov 15, 2025 153   @ Winthrop L 77-84 26%    
  Nov 22, 2025 173   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-78 28%    
  Nov 26, 2025 240   Appalachian St. W 68-65 61%    
  Nov 29, 2025 230   @ Elon L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 02, 2025 311   Georgia St. W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 13, 2025 41   @ Clemson L 59-79 4%    
  Dec 17, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 73-87 12%    
  Dec 20, 2025 146   @ Washington St. L 74-82 25%    
  Dec 31, 2025 165   @ Furman L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 03, 2026 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 07, 2026 345   The Citadel W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 10, 2026 231   Wofford W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 15, 2026 284   @ VMI L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 17, 2026 229   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 21, 2026 270   Western Carolina W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 24, 2026 231   @ Wofford L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 29, 2026 229   UNC Greensboro W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 284   VMI W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 05, 2026 137   @ Chattanooga L 70-79 24%    
  Feb 07, 2026 182   @ Samford L 76-82 31%    
  Feb 11, 2026 165   Furman L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 14, 2026 345   @ The Citadel W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 19, 2026 137   Chattanooga L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 21, 2026 182   Samford W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 25, 2026 270   @ Western Carolina L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 148   East Tennessee St. L 70-71 45%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 10.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 5.4 3.3 0.6 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.0 1.5 0.2 9.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.5 10.8 11.9 11.6 10.6 8.7 7.5 5.0 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 97.8% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 84.6% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 59.1% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.2% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 47.8% 47.8% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.9% 41.3% 41.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.9% 31.2% 31.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.2% 24.1% 24.1% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.4
13-5 5.0% 17.1% 17.1% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2
12-6 7.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 6.6
11-7 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.0
10-8 10.6% 6.2% 6.2% 17.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 10.0
9-9 11.6% 4.7% 4.7% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.0
8-10 11.9% 2.8% 2.8% 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.5
7-11 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 9.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.3
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 93.8 0.0%