Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #150
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #140
Pace 74.8 #39
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #104 C+ B- C+ B- C-
Defense #244 D+ C C+ B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.24 #90 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #153 0.75 #186 +0.4 #160
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.02 #175 +0.9 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #139 +1.2 #138
Freethrows 0.32 #128 75% #102 0.24 #107
Second Chance 33.9% #88 1.06 #138 0.36 #89
Turnovers 16.4% #141
Total Offense +2.7 #104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.10 #101 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.83 #301 -0.6 #230
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.17 #349 -2.4 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #275 -2.8 #275
Freethrows 0.25 #32 74% #265 0.18 #38
Second Chance 33.3% #295 0.94 #62 0.31 #182
Turnovers 17.6% #143
Total Defense -2.0 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #237 0.4% #198
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.9% #126 5.0% #276
Possession Length 16.6 #107 16.7 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #60 0.21 #301
Improvement +0.2 #168 -0.6 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 26.5% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 98.9%
Conference Champion 29.9% 37.5% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round24.6% 26.5% 20.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 33 - 33 - 9
Quad 416 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 4% -11  0 - 1 +6 -1 F+ D+ A+ +7 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 179 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 68% +8  1 - 1 +11 +19 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 124 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 33% -16  1 - 2 -31 -12 F+ D+ F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 64% +11  2 - 2 +9 +16 A+ B+ F -7 C C- D
 Wed, Nov 26 172 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 68% -3  3 - 2 +4 +12 C- A+ C -7 B- D- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 195 @Elon W 91 - 84 50% +1  4 - 2 +8 +7 C+ D- A -0 B B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 269 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 82% +5  5 - 2 +2 +1 D- C+ B- +1 F+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 34 @Clemson L 63 - 70 7% +0  5 - 3 +10 +7 A- D- A +2 C A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 44 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 10% -10  5 - 4 -3 -6 F+ C+ F +3 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 122 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 32% -4  5 - 5 -0 +1 C C- B- -1 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 163 @Furman L 72 - 74 42% -3  5 - 6 0 - 1 +1 +3 D- B A -3 D B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 132 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 34% -1  5 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +3 C D- C+ -4 A- F B
 Wed, Jan 7 345 The Citadel W 101 - 63 92% +21  6 - 7 1 - 2 +23 +27 A+ A+ D -2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 202 Wofford W 109 - 97 73% +7  7 - 7 2 - 2 +6 +22 A+ A+ C- -16 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 356 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F+ -2 F A C
 Sat, Jan 17 312 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 74% +12  9 - 7 4 - 2 +4 +19 A+ A+ F -15 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 277 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 83% +14  10 - 7 5 - 2 +3 +8 F+ A+ A+ -6 C F+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 202 @Wofford L 77 - 80 51% -1  10 - 8 5 - 3 -3 +2 C F B- -5 D F C
 Thu, Jan 29 312 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 88% +14  11 - 8 6 - 3 +6 +10 C A+ C -5 B- D- D
 Sat, Jan 31 356 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  12 - 8 7 - 3 -3 +9 D+ B+ B+ -12 F B- D
 Thu, Feb 5 276 @Chattanooga W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Samford W 82 - 80 56%
 Wed, Feb 11 163 Furman W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 345 @The Citadel W 80 - 71 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 276 Chattanooga W 83 - 73 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 229 Samford W 85 - 77 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 277 @Western Carolina W 86 - 82 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 East Tennessee St. W 79 - 77 57%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1 +3 C+ B- C+ -2 D+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 7.9 14.9 6.4 29.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 9.9 16.7 4.1 32.0 2nd
3rd 0.9 7.3 11.1 2.5 0.0 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.4 1.8 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.5 15.1 23.5 27.1 19.0 6.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 6.4    5.4 1.0
14-4 78.3% 14.9    6.6 7.2 1.1
13-5 29.0% 7.9    1.1 3.5 2.9 0.4
12-6 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.9% 29.9 13.2 11.8 4.3 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 6.4% 37.3% 37.3% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0
14-4 19.0% 31.8% 31.8% 13.5 0.2 2.8 2.8 0.3 13.0
13-5 27.1% 27.5% 27.5% 13.9 0.1 1.8 4.4 1.1 0.0 19.7
12-6 23.5% 20.4% 20.4% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.2 0.0 18.7
11-7 15.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 12.4
10-8 6.5% 14.9% 14.9% 14.8 0.3 0.7 0.0 5.6
9-9 1.9% 10.6% 10.6% 15.3 0.1 0.1 1.7
8-10 0.4% 13.5% 13.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 13.8 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 12.8 0.4 34.5 54.6 10.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%