Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#203
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#270
Pace62.8#337
Improvement+1.0#89

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#253
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#329
Layup/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#313
Freethrows+5.3#9
Improvement+0.5#104

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#155
First Shot+3.4#75
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#329
Layups/Dunks-0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#15
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement+0.5#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.6% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 36.0% 42.5% 20.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.0% 45.3% 30.2%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.0% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 11.4% 19.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 3.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 49 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 173 Arkansas St. L 85-86 57%     0 - 1 -5.4 -0.8 -4.5
  Sat, Nov 15 167 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 33%     0 - 2 -16.1 -20.0 +3.5
  Sat, Nov 22 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 62%     1 - 2 +1.2 +5.4 -3.5
  Mon, Nov 24 270 LIU Brooklyn W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Dec 6 112 @Tulsa L 65-74 20%    
  Fri, Dec 12 92 @Xavier L 63-74 15%    
  Tue, Dec 16 316 Oral Roberts W 75-66 79%    
  Tue, Dec 23 317 Lindenwood W 73-64 79%    
  Mon, Dec 29 245 @Delaware L 69-70 46%    
  Fri, Jan 2 206 UTEP W 68-65 61%    
  Sun, Jan 4 125 New Mexico St. L 64-66 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 142 @Kennesaw St. L 69-75 30%    
  Sat, Jan 10 218 Florida International W 72-68 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 137 @Western Kentucky L 68-75 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 148 @Middle Tennessee L 64-70 31%    
  Thu, Jan 22 125 @New Mexico St. L 61-69 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 206 @UTEP L 65-68 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 175 Sam Houston St. W 69-67 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 178 Jacksonville St. W 65-63 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 78 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Feb 12 187 Louisiana Tech W 62-60 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 245 Delaware W 72-67 66%    
  Wed, Feb 18 142 Kennesaw St. W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 218 @Florida International L 69-71 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 187 @Louisiana Tech L 59-63 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 175 @Sam Houston St. L 66-70 36%    
  Thu, Mar 5 137 Western Kentucky L 71-72 48%    
  Sat, Mar 7 148 Middle Tennessee W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.5 2.9 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.0 7.1 8.9 10.3 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.0 7.4 5.5 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 84.7% 0.2    0.2 0.1
17-3 68.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 48.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.5% 0.7    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.6% 19.5% 19.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.3% 22.1% 22.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.4% 15.0% 15.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-6 3.9% 11.8% 11.8% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-7 5.5% 10.0% 10.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.9
12-8 7.4% 5.5% 5.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.0
11-9 9.0% 4.5% 4.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
10-10 10.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
8-12 11.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.1
7-13 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-14 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
5-15 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-16 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
3-17 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 96.9 0.0%