Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#93
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#206
Pace70.3#150
Improvement+2.5#28

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#33
First Shot+6.3#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#200
Layup/Dunks-2.4#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+1.2#65

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#177
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks+6.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows-0.6#225
Improvement+1.3#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 17.1% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.9
.500 or above 91.0% 94.4% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 92.3% 74.8%
Conference Champion 14.9% 17.5% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.9%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round15.2% 16.7% 10.8%
Second Round3.8% 4.4% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 6
Quad 36 - 49 - 9
Quad 412 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. L 94-99 93%     0 - 1 -16.0 +5.2 -20.7
  Nov 13, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 78-60 97%     1 - 1 +2.4 -4.2 +5.6
  Nov 16, 2021 217   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-55 69%     2 - 1 +22.6 +8.6 +15.1
  Nov 22, 2021 291   Long Beach St. W 92-66 88%     3 - 1 +18.9 +12.0 +6.2
  Nov 23, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. L 76-77 62%     3 - 2 +1.8 +16.6 -15.0
  Nov 24, 2021 266   George Washington W 72-54 86%     4 - 2 +12.4 -0.5 +13.1
  Dec 01, 2021 244   @ Illinois St. W 82-75 74%    
  Dec 04, 2021 20   BYU L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 08, 2021 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 80-70 81%    
  Dec 11, 2021 171   Oral Roberts W 86-77 79%    
  Dec 15, 2021 59   South Dakota St. W 83-82 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 22, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 02, 2022 57   Drake W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 05, 2022 212   @ Bradley W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 112   Northern Iowa W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 12, 2022 156   Southern Illinois W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 15, 2022 201   @ Valparaiso W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 19, 2022 244   Illinois St. W 85-72 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 34   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 25, 2022 175   @ Indiana St. W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 245   Evansville W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 02, 2022 156   @ Southern Illinois W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 06, 2022 34   Loyola Chicago L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 09, 2022 57   @ Drake L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 201   Valparaiso W 77-66 82%    
  Feb 15, 2022 175   Indiana St. W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 20, 2022 112   @ Northern Iowa L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 23, 2022 212   Bradley W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 245   @ Evansville W 71-64 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 4.5 3.8 1.6 0.3 14.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.3 7.0 2.8 0.6 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 7.0 9.1 4.2 1.0 0.1 24.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 5.6 1.9 0.2 16.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.5 2.8 0.6 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.6 8.7 11.4 14.4 15.6 12.8 11.3 7.3 4.4 1.6 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 87.1% 3.8    2.8 1.0
15-3 61.0% 4.5    2.6 1.7 0.2
14-4 29.4% 3.3    1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 8.7% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 8.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 75.9% 51.7% 24.1% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 50.0%
17-1 1.6% 65.4% 42.8% 22.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 39.6%
16-2 4.4% 46.0% 36.1% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 15.5%
15-3 7.3% 31.0% 26.3% 4.6% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.1 6.3%
14-4 11.3% 24.7% 23.9% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 1.0%
13-5 12.8% 17.4% 17.0% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 10.6 0.5%
12-6 15.6% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.5
11-7 14.4% 10.4% 10.4% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 12.9 0.1%
10-8 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-9 8.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.3
8-10 5.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
7-11 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 14.2% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.6 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 84.5 1.6%