Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 202
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 219
Pace 64.7 283
Improvement +2.2 100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 198 C- B- C- C+ D
Defense C- 209 D+ C- C+ D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 A- 68% 19 -1.4 236
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 140 F+ 31% 355 +0.1 173
Three Pointers 43% 137 D+ 32% 270 -0.2 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 323 C -0.4 186
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 221
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 137 B 1.12 57 B- 0.36 86
Turnovers C- 17.5% 226
Freethrows B 0.35 47 F+ 66% 350 C+ 0.23 140
Total Offense C- -1.2 198

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 212 B 8.4% 47
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 217 F 15.1% 365
Three Pointers B- 89% 77 B- 0.6% 101
Total C 56% 175 D 6.7% 293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 353 F 70% 365 -1.8 117
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 3 C+ 37% 143 +4.2 361
Three Pointers 38% 258 D+ 36% 279 -0.1 178
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.1 6 D- +4.7 338
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 258
Second Chance C- 32.1% 253 C 1.04 211 C- 0.33 245
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 141
Freethrows D- 0.36 324 D+ 74% 276 D- 0.27 326
Total Defense C- -1.2 209

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 343 D+ 8.1% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 96 A- 9.4% 25
Three Pointers C 83% 155 D+ 0.5% 255
Total C 56% 185 C 5.6% 174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 257 17.6 241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 275 0.16 148
Improvement +2.2 #86 +0.0 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
10th 50th 90th
Predictive Rating Rank 232 201 173
Conference Record 8 - 12 9 - 11 11 - 9
Conference Finish 9 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 9% 19% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 35% 60% 21%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 5%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 35.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 140 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 48% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 C+ C C C -1 B- D C
 Sat, Nov 15 176 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 33% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -21 F F F B +5 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 150 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 51% -2  27% 1 - 2 C+ +4 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -1 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 214 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 63% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -8 F A- B F -13 F D C
 Sat, Dec 6 77 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 12% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -13 C+ +3 A D+ F F -18 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 82 @Xavier L 57 - 75 13% -7  17% 1 - 5 D+ -8 F+ -8 D- D+ D- C- -2 D+ C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 338 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 87% +2  74% 2 - 5 D- -14 F -13 D F C- C -1 C+ C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 260 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 72% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -4 D- -6 F+ B+ A B- +3 B+ A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 263 @Delaware W 61 - 43 51% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 D- -6 C- F D A+ +24 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 246 UTEP W 79 - 55 69% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +16 A+ +18 B A+ C+ B- +3 C+ D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 157 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 52% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 B A+ D- D -5 D- C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 165 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 31% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C- -1 C- B D D -6 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 185 Florida International W 79 - 71 58% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 C A+ D B- +3 A- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 168 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 32% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D- -13 C+ +3 D A+ C F -17 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 171 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 32% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -1 B +6 C+ B+ C+ D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 157 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 30% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ D- D C- -3 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @UTEP W 62 - 57 47% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +3 D- -7 D- C+ F A+ +11 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 114 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 40% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 D+ -4 C+ A C- D -5 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 200 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 61% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ A C- B- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 100 @Liberty L 76 - 79 16% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 B- +5 B- +5 C A- B+ C+ +0 C D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 218 Louisiana Tech L 78 - 79 2OT 65% +1  54% 10 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -7 F -12 F A- D- B +5 F+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 263 Delaware L 67 - 76 73% -5  12% 10 - 12 7 - 7 F+ -18 D -5 F A B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 165 Kennesaw St. L 87 - 91 53% -5  4% 10 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 B +5 A- C- B+ F -13 F D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @Florida International L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 218 @Louisiana Tech L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 114 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 168 Western Kentucky W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 171 Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 55%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 11 -2 C- -1 A+ C D C- -1 D+ F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- A- F+ D+ C 31% 41% 43% D C- C+ B B- C- B F+ C+ C- F C+ D+ D- 29% 32% 38% A+ D+ C- C C- C+ D- D+ D-
1.07 68% 31% 32% 0 -1 0.99 32% 1.1 .36 18% .35 66% .23 1.10 70% 37% 36% +5 -2 1.07 32% 1.0 .33 17% .36 74% .26
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. C- A+ C D B- 31% 31% 38% D- C+ D- A+ C C A+ C+ A+ C F F A+ D+ 19% 43% 38% A+ B- B- F D C F D- F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A+ D- B+ B C- C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D- A+ A- B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D+ F B- 21% 19% 60% D+ C+ D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F A+ A+ A- 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C+ A+ A- B A+ F B F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D C- D C F B D-
0.97 53% 33% 17% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa C+ B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A D C+ D+ F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D F F A+ B- F F C F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier F+ B- F F F 52% 24% 24% B D- B- F D+ D- B- A+ B+ C- B- A+ F D+ 30% 21% 49% C- D+ F+ A+ C+ D- B A+ A-
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ B- F C 18% 31% 51% F D F+ F F C- A- C A- C F A+ F D+ 16% 40% 44% A+ C+ A+ F C- C- F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D- A+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% D F+ C A+ B+ A B+ F D B- F D A+ B 29% 27% 44% A B+ C A+ A- F F A F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- C- B D+ D+ 36% 16% 49% B+ C- D F F D A+ F+ A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ B- F D+ A+ F A F+
1.01 56% 43% 32% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B A 23% 36% 41% F B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F B C- 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ D+ B F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B A- A+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+ D F A- F F 25% 45% 29% A+ D- F B+ C- B- F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C- D+ C- D+ D+ 46% 15% 39% B- C- A+ F+ B D A F C- D F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D F C- D- D A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D+ C+ 14% 20% 66% F C C+ A+ A+ D A+ F A+ B- F B A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ A- B F D+ D C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky C+ A- A F D- 24% 12% 63% B- D B A+ A+ C D+ B+ C F C+ F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F D- F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C+ 49% 18% 33% B- C+ A D+ B+ C+ A F C D B- D+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D+ A+ A+ F D- D A+ B+ A+ C- F B+ A B+ 19% 41% 41% A+ A- B F F+ F D- D+ D-
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F D- 30% 28% 43% D D- F A+ C+ F A C+ A A+ D+ A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C D- C-
0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D+ A+ F A B+ 27% 43% 31% F C+ D+ A+ A C- C F D D F C+ C+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B B- B+ F D+ F
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B+ 21% 32% 47% F C+ B+ A A C- B F D B- F D- A+ D+ 24% 50% 26% A+ B F B- F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty B- C F A+ C+ 38% 29% 33% D C B- A A- B+ A+ F A C+ F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C C F D+ B+ F B F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Louisiana Tech F B+ F F F 22% 36% 42% F F A- B- A- D- A- D+ B B F C C- F 25% 49% 25% A+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A C D C
0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26 0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18
Feb
14		 Delaware D F+ F D+ F 16% 35% 49% F F C- A+ A B+ B F C+ F F A- F F 30% 34% 36% A+ F A A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.07 50% 17% 32% -10 -4 0.75 28% 1.5 .44 11% .32 72% .23 1.21 93% 31% 47% +15 -2 1.28 13% 0.0 .00 13% .31 94% .29
Feb
18		 Kennesaw St. B A+ B- B+ A+ 26% 26% 49% F A- D+ C C- B+ A+ F A+ F F B F F 15% 34% 51% A+ F B+ F D+ F+ F C+ F
1.20 75% 42% 39% +9 -2 1.17 27% 1.0 .27 12% .62 67% .41 1.26 86% 31% 50% +14 -3 1.23 29% 1.3 .38 12% .54 68% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 6.5 0.7 12.1 3rd
4th 0.9 9.6 1.8 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 5.8 7.4 0.2 13.3 5th
6th 0.2 13.0 2.3 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 3.0 10.9 0.2 14.1 7th
8th 0.3 11.9 3.1 0.0 15.2 8th
9th 2.1 7.9 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 3.1 1.3 4.4 10th
11th 1.8 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 12th
Total 7.5 24.3 33.6 24.3 9.0 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 1.3% 10.1% 10.1% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-9 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 8.2
10-10 24.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 23.3
9-11 33.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.7 32.9
8-12 24.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 23.9
7-13 7.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.3 96.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.6 48.1 44.4 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 4.4%