Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #187
Pace 61.6 #351
Improvement +5.3 #6

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #220 C- C+ C C D
Defense #157 C D+ C C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.36 #23 -0.6 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #111 0.58 #344 -0.7 #213
Three Pointers 44% #128 0.90 #297 -0.9 #215
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #235 -2.2 #234
Freethrows 20.7 #37 66% #332 13.6 #120
Second Chance 31.4% #157 1.01 #229 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.5% #167
Total Offense -2.0 #220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #352 1.32 #335 +3.4 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #4 0.76 #193 -4.5 #362
Three Pointers 39% #229 1.02 #191 +0.8 #155
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #187 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 20.1 #309 69% #62 13.9 #93
Second Chance 33.6% #284 0.97 #97 0.33 #198
Turnovers 17.0% #161
Total Defense +0.2 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #291 -4.4% #5
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #215 5.2% #275
Possession Length 18.7 #323 17.9 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #198 0.15 #98
Improvement +2.9 #26 +2.4 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.6% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 46.3% 63.2% 37.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.2% 80.3% 57.0%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.0% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.8% 6.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 135 Arkansas St. L 85-86 49%     6.9   0 - 1 -2.6 +0.3 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 15 159 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 32%     -7.4   0 - 2 -15.1 -17.8 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 22 216 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 66%     -2.4   1 - 2 +0.8 +7.4 -5.8
  Mon, Nov 24 191 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 62%     1.3   1 - 3 -19.1 -8.3 -12.4
  Sat, Dec 6 82 @Tulsa L 74-98 13%     -14.2   1 - 4 -13.9 +5.9 -20.8
  Fri, Dec 12 101 @Xavier L 57-75 18%     -6.9   1 - 5 -9.9 -6.0 -5.7
  Tue, Dec 16 296 Oral Roberts W 63-62 80%     2.1   2 - 5 -9.7 -8.1 -1.5
  Tue, Dec 23 234 Lindenwood W 70-65 70%     5.1   3 - 5 -2.2 -3.6 +1.5
  Mon, Dec 29 278 @Delaware W 61-43 57%     12.0   4 - 5 1 - 0 +14.4 -2.0 +19.4
  Fri, Jan 2 246 UTEP W 79-55 73%     16.2   5 - 5 2 - 0 +15.9 +19.8 +1.1
  Sun, Jan 4 145 New Mexico St. W 89-82 51%     7.7   6 - 5 3 - 0 +4.8 +12.9 -8.2
  Wed, Jan 7 168 @Kennesaw St. L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Jan 10 157 Florida International W 73-72 54%    
  Wed, Jan 14 146 @Western Kentucky L 70-75 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 120 @Middle Tennessee L 63-71 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 145 @New Mexico St. L 65-71 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 246 @UTEP W 65-64 51%    
  Wed, Jan 28 134 Sam Houston St. L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 215 Jacksonville St. W 67-63 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 106 @Liberty L 64-73 20%    
  Thu, Feb 12 214 Louisiana Tech W 64-60 65%    
  Sat, Feb 14 278 Delaware W 68-60 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 168 Kennesaw St. W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 157 @Florida International L 70-75 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 214 @Louisiana Tech L 61-63 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 134 @Sam Houston St. L 69-76 28%    
  Thu, Mar 5 146 Western Kentucky W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 120 Middle Tennessee L 66-68 44%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.0 1.7 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 6.4 2.7 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.4 3.5 0.3 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.9 0.5 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.3 6.5 9.9 13.3 15.2 14.5 12.9 9.9 6.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 89.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 69.3% 1.2    0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 44.3% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.0% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 14.9% 14.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.8% 23.7% 23.7% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.7% 17.0% 17.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.4
15-5 3.4% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.9
14-6 6.6% 12.0% 12.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8
13-7 9.9% 10.0% 10.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 8.9
12-8 12.9% 6.5% 6.5% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.1
11-9 14.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 13.9
10-10 15.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.7
9-11 13.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.1
8-12 9.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.8
7-13 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.4 95.1 0.0%