Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.8 187
Results Rating -3.7 229
Consistency 0.15 144
Pace 64.4 288
Improvement +3.1 72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 172 C- B- C C+ D
Defense C- 219 C- D+ C D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 326 B+ 65% 50 -1.1 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 141 D- 32% 341 +0.2 164
Three Pointers 42% 160 C- 33% 246 -0.4 192
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 307 C -0.4 183
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 218
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 125 B 1.13 54 B- 0.36 73
Opponents' Steals C 9.3% 168
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 252
Turnovers C 17.0% 206
Freethrows B 0.34 59 D- 67% 337 C+ 0.23 137
Total Offense C -0.3 172

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 197 C+ 10.3% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 151 F 14.3% 365
Three Pointers B- 88% 91 B- 0.5% 83
Total C 57% 156 D- 7.2% 330


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 354 F 70% 365 -2.1 106
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 4 C+ 37% 154 +4.4 362
Three Pointers 38% 263 D+ 36% 274 -0.4 167
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.2 4 D- +4.3 335
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 249
Second Chance C- 31.3% 230 D+ 1.11 294 D+ 0.35 279
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 134
Other Turnovers C- 6.7% 254
Turnovers C 16.9% 167
Freethrows D- 0.36 335 C- 74% 257 D- 0.27 340
Total Defense C- -1.5 219

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 328 D+ 8.0% 297
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 108 B+ 8.3% 39
Three Pointers C+ 82% 122 D+ 0.5% 259
Total C 55% 162 C- 5.3% 198

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 247 17.7 253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 271 0.16 139
Consistency 0.13 232 0.12 171
Improvement +3.8 31 -0.7 226

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 212 190 171
Results Rating Rank 246 221 193
Conference Record 8 - 12 9 - 11 9 - 11
Conference Finish 8 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 3%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 13
Quad 49 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 149 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 52% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 D+ -2 C C C C -1 C+ D C
 Sat, Nov 15 175 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 35% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -20 F F F B +4 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 142 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 50% -2  27% 1 - 2 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -0 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 222 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 68% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -9 F B+ B F -13 F D C
 Sat, Dec 6 59 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 10% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -12 B- +4 A+ D F F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 87 @Xavier L 57 - 75 15% -7  17% 1 - 5 D -8 F+ -10 F+ D F+ C -0 C- C+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 314 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 84% +2  74% 2 - 5 D -11 F -11 D+ F C- C+ +0 B- C D+
 Tue, Dec 23 270 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 76% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -4 D -6 F+ B+ A C+ +2 B A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 265 @Delaware W 61 - 43 54% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 D- -7 C- F D- A+ +25 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 256 UTEP W 79 - 55 73% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +16 A+ +18 B A+ C+ B- +3 C+ D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 179 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 59% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +3 B+ +9 B A+ F+ D -6 F C- B
 Wed, Jan 7 165 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 33% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 C- B D+ D- -7 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 205 Florida International W 79 - 71 64% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 C- A+ D+ B- +2 B+ D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 136 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 28% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D -11 B- +4 D A+ C- F -15 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 162 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 33% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -0 B +6 C+ B B- D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 179 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 36% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B +11 A+ +15 A+ D- D D+ -4 B+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 256 @UTEP W 62 - 57 52% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +3 D- -7 D- C+ F A +10 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 112 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 41% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 D -4 C+ A D+ D+ -4 D B B+
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 63% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 C+ A D+ B- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 122 @Liberty L 76 - 79 24% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- B+ B+ C+ +0 C D B+
 Thu, Feb 12 214 Louisiana Tech L 78 - 79 2OT 66% +1  54% 10 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -7 F -12 F A D- B +5 F+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 265 Delaware L 67 - 76 75% -5  12% 10 - 12 7 - 7 F+ -18 D -6 F A B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 165 Kennesaw St. L 87 - 91 56% -5  4% 10 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 B +7 A- C A- F -14 F D F
 Sat, Feb 21 205 @Florida International L 67 - 70 41% -3  5% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C- -2 D -5 D+ D- C B- +2 C B F
 Thu, Feb 26 214 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 43% -1  38% 10 - 15 7 - 10 C- -2 C+ +2 D B D+ D+ -4 F F+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 112 @Sam Houston St. L 81 - 86 22% -8  1% 10 - 16 7 - 11 C +1 A- +10 C+ B A F+ -9 C+ F F
 Thu, Mar 5 136 Western Kentucky W 87 - 74 49% +5  60% 11 - 16 8 - 11 B +11 A+ +16 A- A+ A+ D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Mar 7 162 Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 54%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 11 -2 C +0 A+ C D C- -2 C- D- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B+ D- C- C 33% 41% 42% D C- C+ B B- C B D- C+ C- F C+ D+ D- 29% 33% 38% A+ C- C- D+ D+ C D- C- D-
1.08 65% 32% 33% 0 -1 0.99 32% 1.1 .36 17% .34 67% .23 1.11 70% 37% 36% +4 -2 1.06 31% 1.1 .35 17% .36 74% .25
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. D+ A+ C D- C+ 31% 31% 38% F+ C D- A+ C C A+ C+ A+ C F F A+ D 19% 43% 38% A+ C+ C+ F D C F F+ F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A+ D- A- B C- C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D- A+ A- B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D F B- 21% 19% 60% D C+ D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F A+ A+ A 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D- F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C A+ B+ B A+ F B F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D- C- D C F B+ D
0.97 53% 33% 17% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa B- B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C A+ D C D F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D F F A+ B- F F C- F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier F+ B- F F F 52% 24% 24% B F+ B- F D F+ C+ A+ B+ C B A+ F C- 30% 21% 49% D+ C- F+ A+ C+ D B A+ A
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ B- F C+ 18% 31% 51% F D+ D- F F C- A- C+ A- C+ F A+ F C- 16% 40% 44% A+ B- A+ F C D+ F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D A+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% D+ F+ C A+ B+ A B+ F D C+ F D A+ B- 29% 27% 44% A B C A+ A- F F A F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- D+ B D D+ 36% 16% 49% B C- D F F D- A+ F+ A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ C+ F D+ A+ F A F+
1.01 56% 43% 32% -2 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B+ A 23% 36% 41% F B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F B D+ 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ D+ B F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B A- A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A+ D F B+ F F 25% 45% 29% A+ F F B+ C- B F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C D+ C- D+ D+ 46% 15% 39% B- C- A+ D- B D+ A+ F D+ D- F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D F C- F+ D- A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D C+ 14% 20% 66% F C- C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ B- F B A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ B+ B- F D+ D C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky B- A- A F D- 24% 12% 63% B- D B+ A+ A+ C- D+ B+ C F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A F F+ F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C 49% 18% 33% B- C+ A D+ B B- A F C+ D B- D+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D+ F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D+ A+ A+ F D- D A+ A- A+ D+ F B+ A B 19% 41% 41% A+ B+ B F F+ F D- D+ F+
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F D- 30% 28% 43% D D- F A+ C+ F A+ C+ A A D+ A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C D- C-
0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D A+ F A B 27% 43% 31% F C+ D+ A+ A D+ C F D D+ F C+ B- F+ 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B+ B B+ F+ D+ F+
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B 21% 32% 47% F C+ A- A A D+ B F D- B- F F+ A+ D+ 24% 50% 26% A+ B F B- F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty C+ C F A+ C 38% 29% 33% D C- B- A- B+ B+ A+ F A C+ F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C C- F D B+ F B F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Louisiana Tech F B+ F F F 22% 36% 42% F F A- B A D- A- D B B F C C- F 25% 49% 25% A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A C D+ C
0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26 0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18
Feb
14		 Delaware D F+ F D+ F 16% 35% 49% F F C- A+ A B+ B F C+ F F A- F F 30% 34% 36% A+ F A A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.07 50% 17% 32% -10 -4 0.75 28% 1.5 .44 11% .32 72% .23 1.21 93% 31% 47% +15 -2 1.28 13% 0.0 .00 13% .31 94% .29
Feb
18		 Kennesaw St. B A+ B- B+ A+ 26% 26% 49% F A- C- C+ C A- A+ F A+ F F B F F 15% 34% 51% A+ F B+ F D F F C+ F
1.20 75% 42% 39% +9 -2 1.17 27% 1.0 .27 12% .62 67% .41 1.26 86% 31% 50% +14 -3 1.23 29% 1.3 .38 12% .54 68% .36
Feb
21		 Florida International D F A A+ D+ 38% 17% 45% C- D+ C F D- C A F+ B B- D- C A- C- 40% 32% 28% A C A+ F B F F C+ F+
1.00 33% 50% 43% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.8 .27 21% .39 67% .26 1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.5 .29 13% .41 67% .27
Feb
26		 Louisiana Tech C+ F C+ D F+ 53% 11% 36% A D B C+ B D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D- F 19% 29% 52% A+ F A F F+ B F C+ F
1.05 42% 40% 31% -10 +2 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 20% .45 83% .37 1.08 63% 50% 36% +6 -2 1.10 27% 1.4 .37 21% .46 63% .29
Feb
28		 Sam Houston St. A- D+ A+ C- C 48% 15% 37% A- C+ B B B A B C B- F+ B- C+ F C- 40% 34% 26% A+ C+ D+ F F F F F+ F
1.20 56% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.04 33% 1.2 .39 12% .35 71% .25 1.27 55% 35% 46% +3 -2 1.04 38% 1.3 .47 12% .47 79% .37
Mar
5		 Western Kentucky A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 25% 35% 40% F A- C A+ A+ A+ A B- A D+ F B+ A+ B 26% 51% 23% A+ A D F F F F A- F
1.31 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.17 28% 1.9 .52 11% .49 72% .35 1.11 67% 29% 18% -8 -5 0.77 35% 1.5 .54 9% .53 69% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 26.7 26.7 7th
8th 46.2 27.0 73.3 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 46.2 53.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 53.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.2 1.8 51.8
8-12 46.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 1.3 44.9
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.9 96.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 15.9 10.9 89.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1%
Lose Out 23.1%