Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #191
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 #207
Pace 62.3 #342
Improvement +3.8 #32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #193 C- C+ C- C D+
Defense #207 D+ D+ C+ D+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.30 #48 -1.1 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #152 0.63 #333 -0.9 #218
Three Pointers 46% #88 0.93 #281 +0.4 #168
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #225 -1.5 #223
Freethrows 19.9 #57 65% #350 13.0 #157
Second Chance 33.5% #104 1.05 #181 0.35 #111
Turnovers 17.1% #223
Total Offense -1.1 #193

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.33 #344 +2.3 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #10 0.77 #201 -3.6 #359
Three Pointers 40% #207 1.08 #265 -0.8 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.2 #247
Freethrows 19.5 #296 72% #128 14.0 #284
Second Chance 32.9% #273 1.10 #252 0.36 #282
Turnovers 17.6% #104
Total Defense -1.1 #207

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #265 -3.5% #11
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #203 8.1% #321
Possession Length 18.6 #307 18.0 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #213 0.16 #131
Improvement +3.7 #19 +0.1 #182

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 36.5% 56.5% 30.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 79.7% 54.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round3.2% 4.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 154 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 52% +7  0 - 1 -4 -1 C- C D+ -3 C C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 155 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 30% -7  0 - 2 -15 -17 F F F +2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 221 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 66% -2  1 - 2 +1 +7 C+ D A+ -6 A F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 223 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 67% +1  1 - 3 -21 -8 F A- B -15 F C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 11% -14  1 - 4 -13 +6 A+ D F -20 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 79 @Xavier L 57 - 75 12% -7  1 - 5 -8 -5 F D F -5 D+ C D
 Tue, Dec 16 312 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 82% +2  2 - 5 -11 -9 D F C -2 B C C-
 Tue, Dec 23 250 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 71% +5  3 - 5 -3 -3 F B+ A+ +0 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 295 @Delaware W 61 - 43 60% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +13 -3 D+ F F +20 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 261 UTEP W 79 - 55 73% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +15 +19 B A+ C+ +1 C+ C B
 Sun, Jan 4 126 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 44% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +6 +13 A A+ D- -7 D+ C B
 Wed, Jan 7 149 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 29% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +4 C- B D -9 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 180 Florida International W 79 - 71 60% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +3 +2 C A+ F +1 A+ C C
 Wed, Jan 14 160 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 32% -6  7 - 7 4 - 2 -12 +5 D- A+ C -19 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 128 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 25% -0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +2 +11 B+ B+ B- -9 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 126 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Jan 24 261 @UTEP W 67 - 66 52%
 Wed, Jan 28 125 Sam Houston St. L 72 - 74 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 218 Jacksonville St. W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Liberty L 64 - 75 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 229 Louisiana Tech W 65 - 60 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 295 Delaware W 70 - 61 79%
 Wed, Feb 18 149 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 @Florida International L 72 - 76 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 229 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 63 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 77 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 160 Western Kentucky W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 128 Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 47%
Totals 13 - 15 10 - 10 -2 -1 C- C+ C- -1 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.4 4.2 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 7.3 1.3 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 8.7 2.3 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.4 3.6 0.3 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.7 0.5 10.5 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 4.6 1.0 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.9 12.5 16.9 19.1 18.0 12.2 6.8 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 77.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 24.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 0.2
15-5 1.0% 10.9% 10.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.9% 6.9% 6.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
13-7 6.8% 10.3% 10.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.1
12-8 12.2% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.4
11-9 18.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 17.3
10-10 19.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 18.6
9-11 16.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 16.7
8-12 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.5
7-13 6.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.5 96.7 0.0%