Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#136
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#160
Pace59.6#355
Improvement-0.6#264

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#155
First Shot-1.8#248
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#34
Layup/Dunks+0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#59
Freethrows-2.3#331
Improvement+0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#132
First Shot+0.7#150
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#119
Layups/Dunks+2.0#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows-0.1#202
Improvement-0.7#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.5% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 57.4% 79.4% 44.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 95.4% 75.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 4.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round7.8% 9.5% 6.9%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 67 - 12
Quad 48 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2022 81   @ BYU L 64-66 24%     0 - 1 +7.3 +2.2 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee W 75-51 57%     1 - 1 +23.9 +11.0 +15.3
  Nov 25, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington L 54-68 54%     1 - 2 -13.3 -12.7 -1.7
  Nov 26, 2022 155   Ball St. L 64-67 55%     1 - 3 -2.4 -5.3 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2022 249   Oakland W 76-64 73%     2 - 3 +7.3 +6.6 +1.9
  Nov 30, 2022 264   @ Illinois-Chicago W 66-51 67%     3 - 3 +12.2 -4.3 +17.1
  Dec 03, 2022 89   Bradley L 40-58 46%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -15.1 -24.3 +6.7
  Dec 07, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 46-66 8%     3 - 5 -2.3 -8.6 +3.4
  Dec 10, 2022 204   Purdue Fort Wayne L 61-65 73%     3 - 6 -8.5 -8.2 -0.6
  Dec 16, 2022 69   @ Oral Roberts L 77-80 19%     3 - 7 +7.9 +13.9 -6.3
  Dec 18, 2022 299   Central Michigan W 79-58 87%     4 - 7 +10.6 +10.4 +2.1
  Dec 28, 2022 160   @ Northern Iowa W 79-67 45%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +15.1 +13.0 +2.8
  Jan 01, 2023 84   Drake W 52-49 44%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +6.4 -10.3 +17.1
  Jan 04, 2023 341   Evansville W 85-62 92%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +8.7 +9.2 +0.0
  Jan 07, 2023 128   @ Belmont L 61-74 38%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -8.0 -3.9 -5.6
  Jan 11, 2023 234   @ Illinois St. L 66-76 OT 61%     7 - 9 3 - 3 -11.0 -5.5 -5.7
  Jan 15, 2023 117   Indiana St. W 64-62 57%     8 - 9 4 - 3 +2.0 +0.7 +1.6
  Jan 18, 2023 84   @ Drake W 65-62 OT 25%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +11.8 +0.6 +11.4
  Jan 21, 2023 130   Southern Illinois L 57-61 59%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -4.5 +4.3 -10.0
  Jan 24, 2023 264   Illinois-Chicago W 63-59 83%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -4.2 -10.1 +6.0
  Jan 28, 2023 159   @ Murray St. L 71-74 45%     10 - 11 6 - 5 +0.1 +5.0 -5.1
  Feb 01, 2023 267   Valparaiso W 76-67 OT 83%     11 - 11 7 - 5 +0.7 +0.2 +0.5
  Feb 05, 2023 130   @ Southern Illinois L 58-61 37%    
  Feb 08, 2023 128   Belmont W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 12, 2023 341   @ Evansville W 70-59 83%    
  Feb 15, 2023 89   @ Bradley L 59-66 26%    
  Feb 18, 2023 160   Northern Iowa W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 21, 2023 159   Murray St. W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 26, 2023 117   @ Indiana St. L 66-70 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 0.7 1.8 1st
2nd 0.8 3.6 0.4 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 2.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 1.5 9.3 0.3 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 7.9 4.4 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.9 13.3 0.5 16.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 11.9 6.0 0.0 19.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 11.2 10.4 0.7 25.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.4 3.6 13.1 25.4 29.3 19.8 7.1 1.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 62.1% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 14.2% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.2% 15.5% 15.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-7 7.1% 12.7% 12.7% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.2
12-8 19.8% 9.8% 9.8% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 17.9
11-9 29.3% 8.5% 8.5% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.1 26.8
10-10 25.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.9 0.7 23.8
9-11 13.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.4
8-12 3.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.5
7-13 0.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 1.6 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 15.5% 12.5 1.3 6.4 5.9 1.9
Lose Out 0.4% 2.0% 16.0 2.0