Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.8 337
Expected Predictive Rating -13.5 346
Pace 58.8 365
Improvement +3.7 51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 336 C- F D F+ B-
Defense D 318 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 64 D 53% 307 +0.2 169
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 230 C- 36% 230 -1.9 272
Three Pointers 41% 185 C 34% 206 -0.4 196
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 70 D+ -2.8 281
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 240
Second Chance F+ 21.6% 353 F+ 0.84 358 F 0.18 362
Turnovers D 18.9% 305
Freethrows F+ 0.23 357 C 72% 200 F+ 0.17 351
Total Offense D -6.5 336

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 53% 108 C- 11.9% 236
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 325 C- 6.2% 259
Three Pointers B- 88% 101 B 0.4% 59
Total C+ 59% 111 C- 6.3% 251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 D+ 61% 271 +0.3 194
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 D 43% 327 +0.7 247
Three Pointers 43% 112 D+ 36% 271 +2.4 296
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 160 D +3.4 308
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 291
Second Chance D 33.8% 309 C- 1.07 248 D 0.36 306
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 280
Freethrows C 0.30 170 F 77% 359 C- 0.23 225
Total Defense D -5.2 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 90 D+ 8.5% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 240 C- 4.0% 233
Three Pointers D+ 87% 285 C+ 1.2% 109
Total C 56% 178 D+ 4.4% 272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 362 17.2 171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 349 0.19 228
Improvement +2.8 #62 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 347 337 324
Conference Record 4 - 16 5 - 15 6 - 14
Conference Finish 12 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 6% 0% 11%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rider (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -10 D- F F D+ -3 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 55% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -8 F D C- B +4 A F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 78% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -9 C- -1 A- F B+ D -6 C F F
 Mon, Nov 17 296 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 25% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D -6 C+ F D D -5 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -31 F -16 F C F F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 215 Howard L 70 - 80 20% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 C- B F D+ -4 C- C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 252 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 36% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -10 D+ F B- C- -2 A- D- D
 Fri, Dec 5 192 @Siena L 54 - 83 12% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -18 F F A+ F -12 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 235 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -24 F F F F+ -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 352 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 47% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D+ D B F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -9 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 290 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 45% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 266 Fairfield L 75 - 83 39% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 B +6 A+ F C+ F -24 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 249 @Iona L 53 - 71 18% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A F+ -8 D D- D
 Sun, Jan 11 321 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 33% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C- -1 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 343 @Canisius W 59 - 54 41% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D- -6 D+ F D B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 285 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 44% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -11 F A+ F F -10 D+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 266 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 20% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 D+ F D- A +9 B- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 290 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 24% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 192 Siena L 79 - 82 26% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -8 B+ +9 A+ C+ C+ F -18 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 184 Marist L 46 - 58 24% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -16 F -20 F F F B- +2 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 343 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 C- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 193 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 12% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -0 D- -7 C- D+ F A- +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 13 321 Manhattan L 69 - 76 56% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -20 F+ -9 B F D F -12 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 249 Iona W 70 - 68 35% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +9 A+ F A- F -14 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 285 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 23% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -17 F -12 F F+ F D -5 D+ F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 356 @Rider W 66 - 65 50%
 Fri, Feb 27 193 Quinnipiac L 64 - 71 26%
 Sun, Mar 1 162 Merrimack L 59 - 68 21%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -7 D+ D+ B- D -5 C C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- C D+ 43% 33% 41% B- C- F+ F+ F D F+ C F+ D D+ D D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D D C- D D+ C F C-
0.99 53% 36% 34% -3 +1 0.98 22% 0.8 .18 19% .23 72% .17 1.16 61% 43% 36% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 77% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F+ C+ B- F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F+ F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B- F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D D+ D C- C- C- C- B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D- A F D F F C A- B-
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A- F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D A D B+ C+ 36% 26% 38% F+ C C+ F F F A- C+ B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D D- B+ D D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B F D+ B C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A+ B F A+ D+ A+ D+ A F C C 45% 12% 43% D C- B- D- C- C- F B+ F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B- F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D D- D F C F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A+ F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D F D+ D- D- D- B- B- B
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D+ F D F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B+ D B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D- D 50% 8% 42% B D+ F A+ D B F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B- F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A- F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C C+ A+ B+ 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ D+ D- D+ C C A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A+ F+ A F D- F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B B+ A+ A A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D F F C+ F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D F F+ F F A F A F+ F+ F F B+ D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A- D- D C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C- D- A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D- D+ F B- D- 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D- F F D A- A- A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- D- D- F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- F A F D- C- 51% 9% 40% F+ D+ F+ A+ B- F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C F A A F B B 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B+ A A+ A
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C+ D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F F+ F B- C C A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D+ F D-
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F+ F F F F A- F D+ D- F A+ C- 40% 17% 44% F+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D C- B- F+ D+ F D- D+ D- A- A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ B+ D- D- F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D B 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ A- A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A- C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D A F F 27% 22% 51% D+ F D+ F F+ F A+ B A+ D D+ A+ B- C- 62% 12% 26% F D+ F F F C- C+ B+ B-
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 14.5 40.4 20.5 3.2 78.5 11th
12th 15.3 5.7 0.3 21.4 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 13th
Total 30.0 46.0 20.8 3.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 20.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.8
5-15 46.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 46.0
4-16 30.0% 30.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 30.0%