Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#221
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#234
Pace62.6#325
Improvement-1.8#296

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot+1.1#151
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#321
Layup/Dunks+0.9#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#201
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-2.2#324

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#178
Layups/Dunks+2.9#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement+0.4#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.8% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 52.6% 64.4% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.9% 57.2% 46.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 4.8% 7.8%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round5.2% 6.4% 4.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 412 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 35   @ Xavier L 60-63 7%     0 - 1 +11.5 -3.6 +15.0
  Nov 12, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 74-84 5%     0 - 2 +6.7 +7.7 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2021 324   SIU Edwardsville W 70-60 76%     1 - 2 +0.1 -0.6 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2021 323   St. Thomas L 67-76 76%     1 - 3 -18.9 -6.1 -14.1
  Nov 21, 2021 236   @ Youngstown St. W 58-53 44%     2 - 3 +4.0 -10.1 +14.8
  Nov 29, 2021 116   @ Colgate W 70-59 20%     3 - 3 +17.5 +3.0 +15.4
  Dec 03, 2021 117   Monmouth L 49-57 39%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -7.5 -15.9 +7.3
  Dec 05, 2021 210   Fairfield L 71-81 59%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -14.9 -3.1 -12.3
  Dec 08, 2021 266   @ Eastern Michigan W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 18, 2021 300   Albany W 66-61 69%    
  Dec 21, 2021 317   @ Binghamton W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 31, 2021 273   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 02, 2022 270   @ Manhattan W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 09, 2022 273   Quinnipiac W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 14, 2022 290   Canisius W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 16, 2022 97   @ Iona L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 21, 2022 208   St. Peter's W 63-61 58%    
  Jan 23, 2022 298   Rider W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 28, 2022 279   @ Siena W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 30, 2022 117   @ Monmouth L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 04, 2022 270   Manhattan W 67-61 72%    
  Feb 06, 2022 97   Iona L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 210   @ Fairfield L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 14, 2022 241   @ Marist L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 290   @ Canisius W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 25, 2022 298   @ Rider W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 27, 2022 208   @ St. Peter's L 60-64 38%    
  Mar 03, 2022 279   Siena W 67-60 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 241   Marist W 67-62 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 6.3 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 6.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.0 0.8 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.2 11.4 13.8 14.0 12.8 10.4 7.1 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 93.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 80.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 49.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 36.2% 36.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.9% 27.0% 27.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 2.2% 21.4% 21.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-6 4.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.7
13-7 7.1% 12.9% 12.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 6.1
12-8 10.4% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 9.3
11-9 12.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 12.0
10-10 14.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 13.3
9-11 13.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.4
8-12 11.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.2
7-13 9.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 9.0
6-14 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.3
5-15 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.3 94.3 0.0%