Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#353
Expected Predictive Rating-15.0#346
Pace63.3#330
Improvement-3.7#349

Offense
Total Offense-8.0#349
First Shot-3.4#275
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#360
Layup/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#258
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement-1.3#275

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#332
First Shot-3.9#313
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#276
Layups/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#361
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-2.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 6.9% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.3% 29.8% 51.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 29.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 46 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 139 @Duquesne L 63-83 6%     0 - 1 -15.6 -9.0 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 8 363 @Binghamton W 67-59 48%     1 - 1 -4.7 -5.9 +2.0
  Mon, Nov 10 348 Delaware St. W 68-57 57%     2 - 1 -4.0 +3.1 -5.2
  Mon, Nov 17 313 @Le Moyne L 68-74 24%     2 - 2 -11.8 -8.2 -3.9
  Fri, Nov 21 4 @Duke L 42-100 0.3%    2 - 3 -33.2 -14.9 -23.0
  Sat, Nov 22 262 Howard L 70-80 23%     2 - 4 -15.5 -8.4 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 29 296 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 39%     2 - 5 -14.3 -7.6 -6.9
  Fri, Dec 5 177 @Siena L 54-83 9%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -27.1 -12.6 -16.5
  Sun, Dec 7 295 @St. Peter's L 43-71 20%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -32.2 -23.4 -13.1
  Sat, Dec 13 360 @Morgan St. L 73-81 46%     2 - 8 -20.2 -3.7 -16.9
  Mon, Dec 15 45 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58-84 1%     2 - 9 -11.7 -1.0 -13.7
  Fri, Jan 2 235 Sacred Heart L 69-75 29%    
  Sun, Jan 4 279 Fairfield L 67-71 36%    
  Fri, Jan 9 162 @Iona L 65-81 7%    
  Sun, Jan 11 314 @Manhattan L 69-76 25%    
  Wed, Jan 14 340 @Canisius L 60-65 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 300 Mount St. Mary's L 67-70 41%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 @Fairfield L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 @Sacred Heart L 66-78 14%    
  Fri, Jan 30 177 Siena L 62-71 20%    
  Sun, Feb 1 156 Marist L 58-69 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 340 Canisius W 63-62 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 @Quinnipiac L 63-79 7%    
  Fri, Feb 13 314 Manhattan L 72-73 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 162 Iona L 68-78 18%    
  Fri, Feb 20 300 @Mount St. Mary's L 64-73 22%    
  Sun, Feb 22 347 @Rider L 61-65 35%    
  Fri, Feb 27 160 Quinnipiac L 66-76 18%    
  Sun, Mar 1 266 Merrimack L 62-67 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.7 1.0 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.4 5.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 16.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 5.2 8.5 6.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 24.1 12th
13th 1.4 5.1 9.1 9.6 5.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 32.4 13th
Total 1.4 5.2 10.4 15.2 16.9 16.1 13.1 9.2 6.2 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.3% 0.3
11-9 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
9-11 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
8-12 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
6-14 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-16 16.9% 16.9
3-17 15.2% 15.2
2-18 10.4% 10.4
1-19 5.2% 5.2
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%