Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#203
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#192
Pace64.9#271
Improvement+1.0#72

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#113
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#103
Layup/Dunks+2.7#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#270
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement+0.7#63

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#290
First Shot-3.3#284
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#237
Layups/Dunks+3.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#362
Freethrows-0.7#242
Improvement+0.2#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.3% 63.7% 55.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 43.9% 44.7% 39.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 5.3% 10.5%
First Round59.3% 61.3% 50.1%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Neutral) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 416 - 317 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 70-87 5%     0 - 1 +0.5 +4.3 -4.2
  Nov 14, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 56-86 3%     0 - 2 -9.2 +0.9 -13.3
  Nov 17, 2022 351   @ Monmouth W 64-59 78%     1 - 2 -5.0 -12.1 +7.0
  Nov 19, 2022 347   Alabama A&M W 89-83 84%     2 - 2 -6.1 +5.9 -12.5
  Nov 29, 2022 1   @ Houston L 52-100 2%     2 - 3 -25.8 -4.7 -25.2
  Dec 03, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion L 62-68 34%     2 - 4 -3.5 +0.6 -5.0
  Dec 10, 2022 305   @ William & Mary W 67-53 63%     3 - 4 +8.9 -2.5 +12.9
  Dec 14, 2022 243   Bowling Green W 81-75 70%     4 - 4 -1.0 +4.0 -4.9
  Dec 17, 2022 342   Hampton W 78-66 83%     5 - 4 +0.3 -4.7 +4.6
  Dec 18, 2022 277   N.C. A&T W 70-66 66%     6 - 4 -1.9 +2.4 -3.8
  Dec 21, 2022 59   @ Nevada L 66-78 11%     6 - 5 -0.3 +5.3 -6.9
  Jan 07, 2023 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 57-46 78%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +1.3 -11.7 +14.1
  Jan 09, 2023 356   @ Delaware St. W 78-65 83%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +1.2 +7.2 -4.7
  Jan 14, 2023 269   Howard L 84-86 74%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -10.3 +6.3 -16.6
  Jan 21, 2023 345   @ Coppin St. W 96-65 77%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +21.7 +13.6 +6.9
  Jan 23, 2023 300   @ Morgan St. L 71-77 63%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -10.9 -1.8 -9.2
  Jan 28, 2023 355   South Carolina St. W 82-68 92%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -3.1 +0.9 -3.6
  Jan 30, 2023 254   NC Central W 77-71 71%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -1.5 +13.2 -13.8
  Feb 04, 2023 342   Hampton W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 292   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 13, 2023 356   Delaware St. W 78-62 93%    
  Feb 18, 2023 300   Morgan St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 20, 2023 345   Coppin St. W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 25, 2023 355   @ South Carolina St. W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 27, 2023 254   @ NC Central W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2023 269   @ Howard W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.5 10.5 22.5 10.4 43.9 1st
2nd 0.2 6.2 17.5 5.4 29.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 11.2 4.1 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 2.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 7.4 20.3 32.2 27.9 10.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 10.4    9.5 0.9
11-3 80.4% 22.5    12.0 9.2 1.2 0.0
10-4 32.6% 10.5    1.5 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.0
9-5 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 43.9% 43.9 23.0 14.7 5.2 0.9 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 10.4% 77.8% 77.8% 14.4 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.5 0.3 2.3
11-3 27.9% 70.4% 70.4% 15.0 0.1 3.5 12.0 4.1 8.3
10-4 32.2% 62.0% 62.0% 15.4 0.0 1.3 9.9 8.7 12.2
9-5 20.3% 52.7% 52.7% 15.6 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.9 9.6
8-6 7.4% 43.5% 43.5% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2
7-7 1.5% 35.6% 35.6% 15.9 0.1 0.5 1.0
6-8 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-9 0.0% 0.0
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 62.3% 62.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.6 8.8 29.6 23.1 37.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.9% 78.6% 14.4 0.1 5.9 39.4 32.0 1.2