Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#122
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Pace76.2#37
Improvement-0.8#233

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#113
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#51
Layup/Dunks-3.3#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#89
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement-1.4#284

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#156
First Shot-0.8#190
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#119
Layups/Dunks-1.0#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#111
Freethrows-2.0#312
Improvement+0.6#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 18.5% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 87.4% 94.3% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 91.5% 75.0%
Conference Champion 15.7% 24.4% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round15.0% 18.5% 12.3%
Second Round1.4% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 44.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 38 - 59 - 10
Quad 49 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 24 @Texas Tech L 77-98 8%     0 - 1 -2.8 +10.1 -12.7
  Sat, Nov 15 111 @Utah L 79-85 34%     0 - 2 +0.6 +3.3 -2.4
  Wed, Nov 19 103 Wyoming W 78-70 53%     1 - 2 +9.7 +4.4 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 175 Idaho St. W 84-81 63%     2 - 2 +1.9 +6.6 -4.8
  Fri, Nov 28 177 Idaho W 94-68 64%     3 - 2 +24.8 +28.8 -1.4
  Tue, Dec 2 55 @Oklahoma St. L 83-93 18%     3 - 3 +2.2 +5.2 -2.0
  Sat, Dec 6 327 @Texas Southern W 82-70 81%     4 - 3 +5.1 -2.9 +6.6
  Wed, Dec 17 154 @Oregon St. W 85-75 46%     5 - 3 +13.4 +8.7 +4.1
  Sun, Dec 21 127 @New Mexico St. L 78-87 39%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -3.8 +3.5 -6.8
  Fri, Jan 2 145 @Western Kentucky L 82-84 44%    
  Sun, Jan 4 158 @Middle Tennessee L 77-78 47%    
  Thu, Jan 8 284 Delaware W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Jan 10 102 Liberty W 77-76 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 236 @Jacksonville St. W 75-71 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 182 @Florida International W 83-82 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 152 Kennesaw St. W 87-82 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 145 Western Kentucky W 85-81 65%    
  Wed, Jan 28 254 @Missouri St. W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 187 Louisiana Tech W 73-66 74%    
  Wed, Feb 4 202 UTEP W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 187 @Louisiana Tech W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 152 @Kennesaw St. L 84-85 47%    
  Wed, Feb 18 158 Middle Tennessee W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 236 Jacksonville St. W 78-68 81%    
  Thu, Feb 26 182 Florida International W 86-79 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 254 Missouri St. W 78-67 83%    
  Thu, Mar 5 284 @Delaware W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 102 @Liberty L 74-79 31%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.3 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.2 15.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.1 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.3 3.4 0.7 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.5 9.8 12.9 13.7 14.1 12.1 9.3 6.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.0% 1.1    1.1 0.1
17-3 88.3% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
16-4 74.9% 4.5    3.1 1.3 0.1
15-5 46.2% 4.3    2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0
14-6 18.6% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 9.1 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 43.5% 40.6% 2.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9%
18-2 1.1% 43.9% 43.3% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.0%
17-3 2.9% 34.4% 34.4% 12.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.9
16-4 6.0% 29.9% 29.9% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 4.2
15-5 9.3% 25.6% 25.6% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 7.0
14-6 12.1% 22.7% 22.7% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.4
13-7 14.1% 16.8% 16.8% 13.1 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 11.8
12-8 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.9
11-9 12.9% 9.5% 9.5% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 11.7
10-10 9.8% 6.0% 6.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.2
9-11 7.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.2
8-12 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
7-13 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.9 3.6 3.6 10.7 3.6 7.1 17.9 39.3 14.3