San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#33
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#25
Pace67.9#188
Improvement-0.4#234

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#35
First Shot+4.9#49
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#82
Layup/Dunks+2.7#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
Freethrows+2.0#47
Improvement+0.7#73

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#37
First Shot+4.6#53
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#63
Layups/Dunks+2.1#93
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#114
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement-1.1#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 11.0% 15.8% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 35.2% 46.0% 16.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.6% 95.5% 85.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.8% 93.9% 80.8%
Average Seed 7.1 6.6 8.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 50.9% 65.8% 25.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 1.7% 7.0%
First Round89.9% 94.7% 81.7%
Second Round52.9% 58.4% 43.6%
Sweet Sixteen21.0% 24.5% 15.0%
Elite Eight8.5% 9.9% 6.3%
Final Four3.2% 3.8% 2.3%
Championship Game1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 6
Quad 24 - 18 - 7
Quad 310 - 019 - 8
Quad 43 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-57 90%     1 - 0 +20.9 +8.3 +12.7
  Nov 11, 2022 81   BYU W 82-75 79%     2 - 0 +10.8 +5.0 +5.1
  Nov 15, 2022 90   @ Stanford W 74-62 65%     3 - 0 +20.2 +7.5 +13.1
  Nov 21, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 88-77 48%     4 - 0 +23.6 +16.1 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2022 9   Arizona L 70-87 36%     4 - 1 -1.2 -1.4 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2022 18   Arkansas L 74-78 OT 43%     4 - 2 +9.9 -1.2 +11.7
  Nov 29, 2022 100   UC Irvine W 72-69 83%     5 - 2 +4.9 -1.2 +6.0
  Dec 05, 2022 149   Troy W 60-55 90%     6 - 2 +3.2 -8.8 +12.3
  Dec 10, 2022 12   St. Mary's L 61-68 39%     6 - 3 +8.0 +3.2 +4.3
  Dec 12, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. W 88-54 90%     7 - 3 +32.1 +8.5 +21.5
  Dec 20, 2022 262   UC San Diego W 62-46 96%     8 - 3 +7.9 -14.2 +22.2
  Dec 28, 2022 168   Air Force W 71-55 91%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +13.3 +7.0 +8.6
  Dec 31, 2022 76   @ UNLV W 76-67 60%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +18.7 +8.7 +9.9
  Jan 07, 2023 139   @ Wyoming W 80-75 77%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +9.4 +16.4 -6.4
  Jan 10, 2023 59   Nevada W 74-65 72%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +15.2 +9.0 +6.8
  Jan 14, 2023 54   New Mexico L 67-76 70%     12 - 4 4 - 1 -2.2 -6.8 +5.0
  Jan 18, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. W 82-76 OT 72%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +12.1 +8.3 +3.7
  Jan 21, 2023 168   @ Air Force W 70-60 81%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +12.8 +10.7 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2023 47   Utah St. W 85-75 68%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +17.3 +20.8 -2.5
  Jan 28, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 72-51 87%     16 - 4 8 - 1 +21.0 +9.5 +14.9
  Jan 31, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 66-75 52%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +2.7 +6.1 -4.4
  Feb 03, 2023 36   Boise St. W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 76   UNLV W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. W 67-58 80%    
  Feb 21, 2023 113   Colorado St. W 77-66 87%    
  Feb 25, 2023 54   @ New Mexico L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 28, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 65-67 41%    
  Mar 04, 2023 139   Wyoming W 77-64 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 8.5 22.8 15.3 3.9 50.9 1st
2nd 0.2 4.4 14.3 4.7 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.2 4.3 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 3.7 0.2 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.3 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.0 17.1 27.2 27.5 15.3 3.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.9    3.9
15-3 100.0% 15.3    13.9 1.4 0.0
14-4 82.7% 22.8    10.9 9.9 1.9 0.1
13-5 31.0% 8.5    1.1 3.2 3.1 1.0 0.1
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 50.9% 50.9 29.8 14.5 5.2 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.7 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 15.3% 99.7% 29.3% 70.4% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.4 5.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-4 27.5% 98.3% 26.8% 71.5% 6.4 0.1 1.1 4.5 8.4 8.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 97.7%
13-5 27.2% 94.0% 23.5% 70.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.0 8.0 6.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 1.6 92.2%
12-6 17.1% 83.1% 20.4% 62.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.9 4.4 1.4 0.0 2.9 78.8%
11-7 7.0% 67.0% 17.7% 49.3% 10.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.0 2.3 59.9%
10-8 1.6% 46.7% 14.3% 32.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 37.7%
9-9 0.2% 22.0% 10.6% 11.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.7%
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.6% 24.5% 67.0% 7.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 6.3 10.5 13.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 9.3 3.3 0.1 8.4 88.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.9% 100.0% 2.7 9.1 31.6 38.1 19.1 2.0 0.1