San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#52
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#84
Pace68.3#221
Improvement-0.8#234

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#70
First Shot+4.6#67
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks+3.5#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows+0.7#128
Improvement-0.7#227

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#43
First Shot+3.6#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#61
Layups/Dunks+5.0#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#341
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 29.8% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.1% 15.8% 7.3%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 92.1% 94.4% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 93.7% 80.4%
Conference Champion 19.5% 21.9% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.0% 6.6% 3.9%
First Round24.7% 26.7% 16.3%
Second Round9.7% 10.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.5% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 26 - 37 - 9
Quad 36 - 213 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 275 Long Beach St. W 77-45 95%     1 - 0 +22.8 -3.1 +25.4
  Sun, Nov 9 175 Idaho St. W 73-57 90%     2 - 0 +11.9 +6.7 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 18 139 Troy L 107-108 2OT 86%     2 - 1 -2.5 +10.5 -12.8
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 7%     2 - 2 -13.2 -8.6 -1.7
  Tue, Nov 25 56 Oregon W 97-80 53%     3 - 2 +26.2 +26.7 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 27 Baylor L 81-91 32%     3 - 3 +4.8 +10.9 -6.0
  Wed, Dec 3 85 Utah Valley W 77-66 73%     4 - 3 +14.6 +7.6 +7.0
  Wed, Dec 10 253 Lamar W 89-71 94%     5 - 3 +9.8 +7.4 +0.9
  Wed, Dec 17 322 Air Force W 81-58 97%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +10.2 +11.8 +0.6
  Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45-68 11%     6 - 4 +0.3 -10.7 +8.4
  Tue, Dec 30 197 @San Jose St. W 76-67 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 51 Boise St. W 71-68 61%    
  Tue, Jan 6 89 @Nevada W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 184 Fresno St. W 81-66 92%    
  Wed, Jan 14 103 @Wyoming W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 66 New Mexico W 78-73 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 87 @Grand Canyon W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 133 @UNLV W 79-74 69%    
  Wed, Jan 28 91 Colorado St. W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 33 @Utah St. L 71-78 28%    
  Tue, Feb 3 103 Wyoming W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 322 @Air Force W 76-59 93%    
  Sat, Feb 14 89 Nevada W 75-68 73%    
  Tue, Feb 17 87 Grand Canyon W 74-68 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 91 @Colorado St. W 73-72 53%    
  Wed, Feb 25 33 Utah St. L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 66 @New Mexico L 75-76 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 51 @Boise St. L 68-71 39%    
  Fri, Mar 6 133 UNLV W 82-71 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.8 5.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 19.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 6.6 7.0 3.6 0.8 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.7 5.5 1.6 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.4 4.8 1.0 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.1 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 10.4 13.3 14.7 14.2 12.4 9.5 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.6% 2.5    2.4 0.2
17-3 86.5% 5.1    4.0 1.1 0.0
16-4 60.9% 5.8    3.4 2.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 30.7% 3.8    1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 7.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 12.1 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 96.3% 38.8% 57.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.0%
18-2 2.6% 89.1% 34.4% 54.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 83.4%
17-3 5.9% 74.9% 33.3% 41.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.5 62.4%
16-4 9.5% 58.2% 27.0% 31.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.0 4.0 42.8%
15-5 12.4% 41.2% 22.6% 18.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 0.1 7.3 24.0%
14-6 14.2% 27.6% 17.6% 9.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 0.2 10.3 12.0%
13-7 14.7% 17.4% 13.5% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 12.1 4.5%
12-8 13.3% 10.2% 9.3% 0.9% 11.2 0.1 1.0 0.3 12.0 1.0%
11-9 10.4% 7.2% 7.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 9.7 0.1%
10-10 7.1% 4.8% 4.8% 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.8
9-11 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4
8-12 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.6% 15.7% 11.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 7.0 12.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.4 14.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 10.3 34.5 31.0 24.1