San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.4 44
Results Rating +10.3 55
Consistency 0.14 134
Pace 70.9 116
Improvement +0.7 168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 112 C+ B- C B- D
Defense A- 16 A- B A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 221 B+ 65% 43 +1.8 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 74 D+ 36% 260 +2.4 58
Three Pointers 34% 317 B 37% 54 -2.0 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 320 B +3.3 75
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 108
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 123 B- 1.11 67 B- 0.36 77
Turnovers C 16.9% 185
Freethrows C+ 0.31 158 B+ 77% 26 B- 0.24 106
Total Offense C+ +2.4 112

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 63% 15 A- 6.5% 15
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 80 C- 5.6% 228
Three Pointers C- 82% 223 A- 0.1% 9
Total B 62% 59 B+ 4.1% 29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 355 B 52% 48 -7.3 10
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 220 A+ 29% 3 -2.4 21
Three Pointers 52% 5 B 31% 58 +3.5 327
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 93 A- -5.7 20
1st FG Attempt A- 0.90 28
Second Chance B- 27.6% 76 B 0.92 43 B 0.25 43
Turnovers A 21.9% 9
Freethrows C 0.31 195 C- 73% 210 C 0.22 204
Total Defense A- +9.0 16

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 231 A 19.3% 14
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 79 A 11.2% 9
Three Pointers C- 86% 250 C 0.8% 172
Total D 62% 316 B+ 8.1% 31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 46 18.0 291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 78 0.13 47
Consistency 0.11 94 0.13 255
Improvement -3.1 320 +3.8 27

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status On The Bubble
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 56 47 40
Results Rating Rank 70 55 44
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 16 - 4
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 9
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45% 54% 38%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34% 42% 26%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 20% 40% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four16% 17% 16%
First Round37% 45% 29%
Second Round13% 17% 9%
Sweet Sixteen2% 3% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 26 - 28 - 9
Quad 36 - 215 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 262 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 96% +13  86% 1 - 0 A+ +23 D+ -3 D A+ F+ A+ +26 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 252 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 95% +11  99% 2 - 0 B +8 C +1 A+ F F A +10 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 152 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 90% -3  20% 2 - 1 C- -4 B +7 B- A F F -10 C+ F+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 8% -18  4% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -12 C- F F C+ +1 B D B
 Tue, Nov 25 89 Oregon W 97 - 80 69% +10  88% 3 - 2 A+ +23 A+ +25 A+ A+ F C- -2 D A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 46 Baylor L 81 - 91 50% -4  18% 3 - 3 C +1 B+ +8 A- D- B+ D- -7 D- A D
 Wed, Dec 3 95 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 79% +6  87% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B- +4 C A B A +9 B B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 220 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  82% 5 - 3 B+ +12 B- +5 B C+ C B+ +5 D+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 351 Air Force W 81 - 58 99% +8  82% 6 - 3 1 - 0 B- +6 B+ +7 B- A+ D C+ +1 B- D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 3 Arizona L 45 - 68 11% -5  42% 6 - 4 C +2 F -12 F D- A+ A+ +11 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 218 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 86% +4  87% 7 - 4 2 - 0 B+ +13 C +0 B- A F+ A+ +12 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 64 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 71% +6  64% 8 - 4 3 - 0 B +9 B +6 A- A- B- C+ +1 B- A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 78 @Nevada W 73 - 68 53% -2  36% 9 - 4 4 - 0 A- +16 B+ +8 C+ A+ D- A- +8 A+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 130 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 87% +15  99% 10 - 4 5 - 0 A +18 D- -7 F A+ A A+ +24 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 100 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 63% +11  80% 11 - 4 6 - 0 A+ +25 B +6 B D+ A A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 47 New Mexico W 83 - 79 62% +3  72% 12 - 4 7 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 A- C- C- A +9 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 62 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 49% -2  24% 12 - 5 7 - 1 B +11 C+ +2 D+ C+ A- A +8 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 119 @UNLV W 82 - 71 70% +4  59% 13 - 5 8 - 1 A- +17 A- +10 A+ F D+ A- +8 D B+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 91 Colorado St. W 73 - 50 78% +10  77% 14 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +26 B +7 A B+ F A+ +23 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 29 @Utah St. L 66 - 71 26% +2  66% 14 - 6 9 - 2 B+ +13 D- -7 C F A A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 3 100 Wyoming W 72 - 63 81% +7  83% 15 - 6 10 - 2 B +11 C- -1 F+ A+ B A+ +12 A B+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 351 @Air Force W 88 - 54 97% +20  89% 16 - 6 11 - 2 A+ +23 A- +9 A F+ A+ A+ +14 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 78 Nevada W 71 - 57 74% +9  84% 17 - 6 12 - 2 A +19 B- +5 C A B- A+ +15 A+ F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 17 62 Grand Canyon L 63 - 73 71% -4  11% 17 - 7 12 - 3 C- -4 D- -7 F A+ C B- +3 A F B-
 Sat, Feb 21 91 @Colorado St. L 74 - 83 59% -6  21% 17 - 8 12 - 4 C +0 C+ +2 F B- D C- -3 B F B-
 Wed, Feb 25 29 Utah St. L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 47 @New Mexico L 74 - 77 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 64 @Boise St. L 71 - 72 49%
 Fri, Mar 6 119 UNLV W 83 - 72 86%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 6 +11 C+ +2 A+ B D A- +9 B B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ D+ B B 37% 47% 34% D C+ C+ B- B- C C+ B+ B- A- B A+ B A- 29% 19% 52% B- A- B- B B A C C- C
1.12 65% 36% 37% +3 -1 1.06 32% 1.1 .36 17% .31 77% .24 0.96 52% 29% 31% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 73% .23
Nov
4		 Long Beach St. D+ F+ F A+ D- 43% 20% 37% C+ D B A+ A+ F+ C- C- C- A+ A- A A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% F+ A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 0% 47% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.5 .51 21% .34 74% .25 0.63 50% 27% 20% -14 0 0.73 32% 0.6 .18 29% .10 40% .04
Nov
9		 Idaho St. C A+ F B A+ 46% 20% 35% C+ A+ D- F F F F D+ F A D- A+ C+ C+ 40% 12% 49% D+ C D+ A+ A- A+ D+ B- C-
1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18 0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23
Nov
18		 Troy B A- D+ A A- 29% 38% 33% F B- A+ C A F A+ C A+ F C+ F+ B- C- 31% 23% 45% A+ C+ D F+ F+ D F C- F
1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49 1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42
Nov
24		 Michigan F F D- B C+ 18% 45% 36% F C- C+ F F F B+ A+ A C+ D+ F B- B+ 38% 7% 55% B- B C- D D B B- B+ B
0.71 30% 28% 35% -9 -5 0.75 26% 0.3 .07 23% .27 81% .22 1.24 67% 50% 32% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.5 .59 17% .35 68% .24
Nov
25		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% D+ A+ A A+ A+ F F A+ F+ C- A+ F F D- 36% 12% 52% C- D C A+ A+ B- D F F
1.38 93% 69% 52% +31 -2 1.60 40% 1.1 .45 21% .16 89% .14 1.14 39% 50% 46% +4 +1 1.12 35% 0.7 .25 18% .38 82% .31
Nov
26		 Baylor B+ A D- A B+ 31% 27% 42% A- A- F C+ D- B+ B- A B+ D- D- F+ D+ D+ 43% 12% 45% F D- A B A D F C F
1.15 71% 33% 39% +6 -1 1.11 19% 1.0 .19 14% .28 82% .23 1.29 71% 50% 36% +9 +1 1.22 30% 1.0 .30 13% .49 73% .36
Dec
3		 Utah Valley B- A- F B- B- 35% 35% 29% F C B+ A- A B A+ A- A+ A D A+ D B- 31% 16% 53% A B B+ B- B+ A+ C B- C
1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38 0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20
Dec
10		 Lamar B- A+ D A+ A- 31% 37% 31% F B B D C+ C A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F D+ 15% 25% 60% C D+ A+ B- A A+ F D- F
1.17 75% 32% 44% +8 -3 1.12 36% 0.9 .33 17% .49 74% .36 0.93 38% 15% 44% 0 -2 0.98 24% 0.9 .22 24% .34 75% .26
Dec
17		 Air Force B+ B- F+ A C+ 47% 18% 35% B+ B- A A- A+ D F+ C- D- C+ B+ C+ B B 35% 8% 58% D B- C+ F D- B D+ F F+
1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17 0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25
Dec
20		 Arizona F B+ F F F 30% 44% 26% D- F C+ F D- A+ A B+ A+ A+ A- F A- A+ 24% 31% 44% A A+ F A+ C+ B+ F A- F
0.72 60% 18% 8% -18 -4 0.58 24% 0.4 .10 13% .35 74% .25 1.08 55% 50% 30% 0 -2 0.98 53% 0.7 .37 17% .52 67% .35
Dec
30		 San Jose St. C D+ D+ A+ B 46% 30% 24% D- B- B A- A F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C C- C- A+ F F F
1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33 0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40
Jan
3		 Boise St. B C- A A+ A- 44% 24% 32% B- A- C- A+ A- B- A+ D A C+ D- C+ B- C+ 30% 15% 55% B+ B- B A+ A+ B D F F
1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26 1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34
Jan
6		 Nevada B+ A+ A F B 32% 32% 36% F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ D+ B- A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 29% 51% A A+ C+ F D- C+ C+ F D
1.14 71% 50% 19% 0 -2 0.98 40% 1.6 .63 20% .37 68% .25 1.06 60% 20% 27% -10 -2 0.76 33% 1.3 .44 14% .36 90% .33
Jan
10		 Fresno St. D- C F F F 34% 20% 46% C- F C+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D- A+ A+ A B+ A+ 26% 19% 54% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F A+
0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14 0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12
Jan
14		 Wyoming B D- A+ A+ B 50% 17% 33% C+ B F A+ D+ A F A+ F A+ A+ A+ B A+ 32% 4% 64% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C- A C+
1.12 50% 56% 41% +3 +1 1.10 17% 1.2 .20 12% .24 79% .19 0.87 38% 0% 31% -11 +2 0.84 24% 0.6 .13 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
17		 New Mexico C+ A+ C- A- A+ 22% 47% 31% F A- D+ C C- C- A+ C+ A+ A D- A+ D+ A- 28% 19% 54% A A- A F C+ A+ D B C-
1.06 91% 38% 38% +8 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35 1.01 67% 0% 38% -1 0 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25
Jan
21		 Grand Canyon C+ C- B+ F D+ 35% 37% 28% D- D+ B- D+ C+ A- C A+ B A A+ A+ F B- 40% 18% 42% C- B- A A+ A+ A+ F D+ F
0.98 53% 45% 13% -8 -2 0.81 29% 1.0 .29 14% .31 84% .26 0.99 39% 13% 47% -4 0 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 24% .52 79% .41
Jan
24		 UNLV A- A+ F A+ A+ 30% 40% 30% F A+ F A F D+ A+ A+ A+ A- F B- C F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D A C+ B+ B+ D A+ B
1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40 1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22
Jan
28		 Colorado St. B A+ D A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A A+ D- B+ F A- A A A+ F A- A+ A+ 8% 25% 68% A+ A+ C A B+ A+ C+ A- B-
1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27 0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23
Jan
31		 Utah St. D- F+ A+ F C- 38% 19% 42% B- C F F F A D+ A- C A+ A F A+ A+ 50% 7% 43% D- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ C
0.88 45% 60% 27% -5 0 0.92 16% 0.7 .11 17% .29 78% .22 0.94 50% 50% 25% -9 +3 0.89 38% 0.6 .23 24% .40 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Wyoming C- A C F D 30% 30% 40% F F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ B- A 29% 16% 56% A- A B- B+ B+ A F C F
1.07 69% 38% 18% -6 -2 0.86 39% 1.4 .54 15% .63 64% .40 0.94 38% 43% 32% -7 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .28 21% .49 77% .38
Feb
7		 Air Force A- A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 33% 31% D- A F A F+ A+ F C+ F A+ C- A+ C C 39% 14% 48% C- C A+ A+ A+ A+ B D+ B-
1.25 86% 53% 33% +14 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16 0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17
Feb
14		 Nevada B- F A+ D C 27% 20% 52% D+ C C+ A+ A B- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 15% 29% 56% A+ A+ F+ D+ F+ A+ F B- F+
1.13 42% 56% 30% -4 -1 0.93 29% 1.6 .46 16% .34 94% .32 0.91 33% 25% 26% -14 -3 0.68 41% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35
Feb
17		 Grand Canyon D- F+ F F F 34% 38% 28% F+ F B A+ A+ C C A+ B+ B- B A B+ A 40% 31% 29% A A A- F F B- F+ D+ F+
0.88 44% 25% 20% -15 -3 0.66 31% 1.4 .44 18% .31 89% .27 1.02 53% 27% 29% -8 -1 0.83 27% 1.8 .48 18% .39 78% .31
Feb
21		 Colorado St. C+ F D B- F 36% 27% 38% C- F A F B- D A+ A+ A+ C- B+ A+ D+ B+ 27% 2% 71% D- B C+ F F B- F D- F
1.09 38% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.9 .36 18% .43 83% .36 1.23 55% 0% 38% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.7 .52 19% .53 83% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 10.7 8.9 20.2 1st
2nd 1.4 23.3 18.9 43.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 14.9 14.2 29.5 3rd
4th 1.4 4.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.9 0.4 1.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.6 20.8 38.1 29.6 8.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 8.9    4.6 4.3
15-5 36.2% 10.7    1.3 6.5 2.9
14-6 1.7% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 20.2% 20.2 5.9 10.8 3.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 8.9% 72.9% 25.2% 47.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.0 2.4 63.8%
15-5 29.6% 57.4% 21.1% 36.3% 10.3 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.3 7.6 0.1 12.6 46.0%
14-6 38.1% 43.2% 17.3% 26.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.2 11.0 0.4 21.6 31.4%
13-7 20.8% 24.8% 12.7% 12.1% 10.9 0.1 0.8 4.0 0.3 15.6 13.9%
12-8 2.6% 15.0% 11.0% 4.0% 11.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2 4.5%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.5% 18.0% 27.5% 10.3 54.5 33.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 8.1 1.1 5.6 23.1 32.7 26.9 9.0 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 73.4% 9.6 0.3 1.5 7.9 19.7 31.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 61.3% 9.9 0.2 4.6 12.4 28.2 15.5 0.4
Lose Out 0.2%