San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.5 #53
Expected Predictive Rating +8.6 #71
Pace 69.1 #193
Improvement -0.7 #228

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #72 B+ C+ C+ C D+
Defense #39 B+ C B- A C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.35 #28 +3.8 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #62 0.59 #334 +0.3 #156
Three Pointers 34% #309 1.27 #5 +1.0 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #60 +5.1 #59
Freethrows 18.4 #121 74% #137 13.6 #117
Second Chance 34.9% #66 0.98 #252 0.34 #131
Turnovers 17.1% #208
Total Offense +4.6 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #328 1.03 #52 +6.0 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #298 0.59 #24 +2.8 #19
Three Pointers 52% #9 0.95 #110 -3.7 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #49 +5.1 #49
Freethrows 16.2 #139 75% #273 12.1 #170
Second Chance 28.8% #122 0.99 #123 0.29 #105
Turnovers 20.9% #20
Total Defense +6.0 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #282 0% #165
Shot Type Make Effect 11.7% #33 -9.9% #42
Possession Length 16.2 #90 18.0 #301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.14 #68
Improvement -1.3 #277 +0.6 #143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.4% 37.7% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.1% 21.1% 8.9%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 95.5% 97.8% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 97.5% 90.4%
Conference Champion 23.6% 31.2% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.5% 7.6% 4.8%
First Round28.1% 33.8% 19.1%
Second Round11.5% 14.2% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.3% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 26 - 37 - 9
Quad 37 - 214 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 270 Long Beach St. W 77-45 96%     12.5   1 - 0 +22.9 -3.1 +25.5
  Sun, Nov 9 170 Idaho St. W 73-57 90%     11.0   2 - 0 +12.1 +6.9 +7.4
  Tue, Nov 18 131 Troy L 107-108 2OT 86%     -3.2   2 - 1 -2.1 +9.9 -11.7
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 7%     -17.7   2 - 2 -12.5 -8.3 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 56 Oregon W 97-80 54%     10.1   3 - 2 +26.6 +27.2 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 26 27 Baylor L 81-91 33%     -4.1   3 - 3 +5.0 +10.9 -5.8
  Wed, Dec 3 88 Utah Valley W 77-66 75%     5.9   4 - 3 +14.6 +7.8 +6.8
  Wed, Dec 10 223 Lamar W 89-71 94%     10.5   5 - 3 +11.4 +8.5 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 17 324 Air Force W 81-58 97%     8.3   6 - 3 1 - 0 +10.2 +12.3 +0.0
  Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45-68 12%     -4.6   6 - 4 +0.6 -10.6 +8.6
  Tue, Dec 30 196 @San Jose St. W 81-68 82%     4.4   7 - 4 2 - 0 +13.8 +4.1 +9.1
  Sat, Jan 3 51 Boise St. W 70-67 61%    
  Tue, Jan 6 78 @Nevada W 72-71 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 181 Fresno St. W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 103 @Wyoming W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 69 New Mexico W 77-72 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 89 @Grand Canyon W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 132 @UNLV W 80-74 69%    
  Wed, Jan 28 99 Colorado St. W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 37 @Utah St. L 71-77 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 103 Wyoming W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 324 @Air Force W 75-58 95%    
  Sat, Feb 14 78 Nevada W 75-69 72%    
  Tue, Feb 17 89 Grand Canyon W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 99 @Colorado St. W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 37 Utah St. W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 69 @New Mexico L 74-75 48%    
  Tue, Mar 3 51 @Boise St. L 67-70 39%    
  Fri, Mar 6 132 UNLV W 83-71 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.4 6.9 6.1 3.6 1.3 0.2 23.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.3 7.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.6 6.1 1.9 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 5.1 5.3 1.4 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.5 1.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 12.2 15.1 16.0 14.3 10.9 7.1 3.7 1.3 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 98.1% 3.6    3.4 0.2
17-3 86.6% 6.1    4.8 1.3 0.1
16-4 63.7% 6.9    3.9 2.7 0.3
15-5 30.5% 4.4    1.2 2.2 0.9 0.1
14-6 6.7% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 14.9 6.7 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 98.5% 37.7% 60.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5%
18-2 3.7% 85.5% 37.0% 48.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 77.0%
17-3 7.1% 74.0% 33.5% 40.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.0 1.8 60.9%
16-4 10.9% 57.8% 30.2% 27.6% 10.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 0.0 4.6 39.5%
15-5 14.3% 40.4% 22.0% 18.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.4 0.1 8.5 23.6%
14-6 16.0% 28.2% 20.0% 8.2% 10.8 0.2 0.9 3.2 0.2 11.5 10.3%
13-7 15.1% 17.4% 13.4% 3.9% 10.9 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.2 12.5 4.5%
12-8 12.2% 10.9% 10.3% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 1.1 0.2 10.8 0.7%
11-9 8.7% 7.3% 6.9% 0.3% 11.3 0.5 0.2 8.0 0.4%
10-10 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2
9-11 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
8-12 1.5% 4.8% 4.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.2% 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.4% 18.2% 13.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.8 14.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.6 16.1%