San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#37
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#23
Pace65.7#274
Improvement+1.3#100

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#78
First Shot+3.3#91
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#145
Layup/Dunks+1.7#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement+2.2#32

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#7
First Shot+10.5#1
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#319
Layups/Dunks+9.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#192
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement-1.0#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 8.8% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 17.9% 18.1% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.5% 61.9% 35.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.8% 47.2% 23.0%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 9.4
.500 or above 99.3% 99.3% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.1% 93.7%
Conference Champion 39.6% 39.9% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.9% 7.9% 8.5%
First Round57.7% 58.1% 31.6%
Second Round33.7% 34.0% 14.8%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 13.5% 4.4%
Elite Eight5.5% 5.6% 1.8%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 0.3%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 29 - 7
Quad 37 - 115 - 8
Quad 47 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 102   UC San Diego W 63-58 84%     1 - 0 +6.6 -6.1 +12.9
  Nov 18, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 67-80 28%     1 - 1 +5.2 +1.2 +3.8
  Nov 26, 2024 40   Creighton W 71-53 52%     2 - 1 +29.7 +9.3 +21.7
  Nov 27, 2024 22   Oregon L 68-78 41%     2 - 2 +4.3 +4.5 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 6   Houston W 73-70 OT 27%     3 - 2 +21.4 +17.0 +4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 255   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 90%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.8 +5.1 +12.6
  Dec 07, 2024 312   San Diego W 80-57 99%    
  Dec 11, 2024 185   California Baptist W 75-59 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 109   California W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 28, 2024 52   Utah St. W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 07, 2025 286   Air Force W 74-52 98%    
  Jan 11, 2025 65   @ New Mexico W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 14, 2025 99   Colorado St. W 71-61 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 104   UNLV W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 22, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 71-55 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 48   @ Nevada L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 28, 2025 194   San Jose St. W 75-58 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   Wyoming W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 194   @ San Jose St. W 72-61 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 53   Boise St. W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 81-61 97%    
  Feb 22, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 25, 2025 65   New Mexico W 78-72 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 72-62 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 104   @ UNLV W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 48   Nevada W 68-63 66%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.7 8.8 11.5 8.9 4.8 1.3 39.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 8.7 6.0 2.0 0.2 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.5 1.9 0.2 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 1.2 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.3 7.4 10.3 13.5 15.9 15.3 13.5 9.2 4.8 1.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 100.0% 4.8    4.7 0.1
18-2 97.4% 8.9    8.2 0.8
17-3 85.1% 11.5    8.6 2.8 0.1
16-4 57.7% 8.8    4.3 3.7 0.8 0.0
15-5 23.2% 3.7    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.6% 39.6 28.0 9.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.8% 99.5% 54.4% 45.1% 3.6 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
18-2 9.2% 98.5% 47.7% 50.8% 5.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.2%
17-3 13.5% 93.6% 39.2% 54.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 89.5%
16-4 15.3% 83.0% 32.5% 50.5% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.3 3.1 1.7 0.1 2.6 74.8%
15-5 15.9% 64.7% 24.8% 39.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.6 3.5 0.2 5.6 53.1%
14-6 13.5% 44.0% 19.7% 24.3% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.1 0.2 7.6 30.2%
13-7 10.3% 27.8% 13.3% 14.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.2 7.4 16.7%
12-8 7.4% 17.7% 12.3% 5.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 6.1 6.1%
11-9 4.3% 11.0% 9.8% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 1.4%
10-10 2.7% 8.7% 7.6% 1.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 2.4 1.1%
9-11 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 61.5% 27.6% 33.9% 8.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.2 6.2 8.4 10.7 11.9 1.1 0.0 38.5 46.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.9 40.6 36.2 19.1 3.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 26.4 24.1 26.4 16.1 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 12.9 23.5 30.6 17.6 9.4 5.9