San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#52
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#68
Pace63.9#306
Improvement-1.2#269

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#137
First Shot+1.0#158
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#167
Layup/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#331
Freethrows+3.5#21
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#13
First Shot+10.4#5
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#313
Layups/Dunks+4.5#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#48
Freethrows+2.6#36
Improvement+0.4#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.1% 35.5% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.4% 21.6% 10.1%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.6
.500 or above 95.7% 96.7% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 91.7% 85.1%
Conference Champion 21.1% 21.9% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four6.2% 6.5% 3.5%
First Round31.0% 32.3% 19.5%
Second Round13.5% 14.3% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.6% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 9
Quad 38 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 136   UC Riverside W 66-53 82%     1 - 0 +12.1 -2.9 +15.5
  Nov 12, 2021 27   @ BYU L 60-66 25%     1 - 1 +10.0 -1.7 +11.4
  Nov 18, 2021 105   Arizona St. W 65-63 76%     2 - 1 +3.4 -3.3 +6.8
  Nov 20, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 68-62 92%     3 - 1 -0.7 -3.5 +3.0
  Nov 25, 2021 147   Georgetown W 73-56 76%     4 - 1 +18.5 +1.0 +17.8
  Nov 26, 2021 14   USC L 43-58 26%     4 - 2 +0.5 -12.6 +10.0
  Nov 30, 2021 286   Long Beach St. W 72-47 95%     5 - 2 +15.1 -10.0 +23.9
  Dec 04, 2021 21   @ Michigan L 58-72 23%     5 - 3 +2.8 -4.2 +6.7
  Dec 08, 2021 205   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-57 90%    
  Dec 17, 2021 41   St. Mary's L 57-58 46%    
  Dec 22, 2021 198   UC San Diego W 72-59 89%    
  Jan 01, 2022 168   @ UNLV W 65-59 71%    
  Jan 05, 2022 112   Fresno St. W 63-55 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 93   Nevada W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 11, 2022 80   @ Wyoming L 63-64 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 200   @ New Mexico W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 18, 2022 168   UNLV W 68-56 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 78   Boise St. W 63-58 68%    
  Jan 26, 2022 50   @ Utah St. L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 31, 2022 200   New Mexico W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 04, 2022 32   @ Colorado St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 09, 2022 267   @ San Jose St. W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 246   Air Force W 66-50 93%    
  Feb 15, 2022 50   Utah St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 112   @ Fresno St. W 60-58 58%    
  Feb 22, 2022 78   @ Boise St. L 60-61 47%    
  Feb 25, 2022 267   San Jose St. W 73-55 94%    
  Mar 01, 2022 32   Colorado St. W 69-68 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 93   @ Nevada W 69-68 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.7 6.7 4.2 1.6 0.3 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 8.1 6.0 1.9 0.2 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.7 7.8 11.0 14.1 15.6 15.0 12.5 8.6 4.4 1.6 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.1
16-2 95.0% 4.2    3.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 77.7% 6.7    4.4 2.1 0.2
14-4 45.5% 5.7    2.4 2.6 0.7 0.1
13-5 14.9% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 12.7 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.3% 51.1% 48.2% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
17-1 1.6% 97.7% 41.3% 56.3% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.0%
16-2 4.4% 91.7% 36.6% 55.1% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 86.8%
15-3 8.6% 79.7% 30.6% 49.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.7 70.8%
14-4 12.5% 60.3% 25.7% 34.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 46.6%
13-5 15.0% 41.8% 21.0% 20.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.1 8.8 26.3%
12-6 15.6% 24.7% 16.2% 8.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.8 10.1%
11-7 14.1% 12.8% 10.3% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.3 2.8%
10-8 11.0% 9.1% 8.5% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.7%
9-9 7.8% 6.5% 6.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.1%
8-10 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.1% 17.1% 16.9% 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.7 4.1 5.7 9.2 6.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 65.9 20.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 28.6 25.7 22.9 20.0 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 8.3 4.2 12.5 29.2 20.8 25.0