Seton Hall
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#17
Pace73.6#73
Improvement-0.6#235

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#33
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#72
Layup/Dunks+0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#133
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement+0.5#134

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#19
First Shot+5.3#39
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#54
Layups/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#5
Freethrows+0.2#180
Improvement-1.1#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
#1 Seed 4.2% 6.1% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 11.0% 15.4% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 31.2% 40.3% 21.5%
Top 6 Seed 53.2% 64.2% 41.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.0% 93.3% 82.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.6% 91.7% 79.6%
Average Seed 5.8 5.2 6.5
.500 or above 97.5% 99.1% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 92.2% 86.3%
Conference Champion 18.6% 22.1% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four3.3% 2.0% 4.6%
First Round86.3% 92.3% 79.9%
Second Round59.0% 66.1% 51.4%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 34.3% 22.8%
Elite Eight12.8% 15.9% 9.4%
Final Four5.4% 7.0% 3.5%
Championship Game2.2% 3.0% 1.4%
National Champion0.9% 1.3% 0.5%

Next Game: Texas (Home) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 37 - 119 - 10
Quad 43 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 326   Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-49 98%     1 - 0 +30.8 +2.2 +24.7
  Nov 14, 2021 135   Yale W 80-44 90%     2 - 0 +35.2 +0.2 +32.3
  Nov 16, 2021 21   @ Michigan W 67-65 37%     3 - 0 +18.8 +4.8 +14.0
  Nov 22, 2021 22   Ohio St. L 76-79 49%     3 - 1 +10.7 +10.0 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2021 121   California W 62-59 83%     4 - 1 +6.0 -3.2 +9.4
  Nov 28, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 84-70 99%     5 - 1 -3.1 +1.8 -5.1
  Dec 01, 2021 120   Wagner W 85-63 89%     6 - 1 +22.3 +5.5 +15.0
  Dec 09, 2021 12   Texas W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 12, 2021 102   Rutgers W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 97   Iona W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 20, 2021 79   St. John's W 84-74 82%    
  Dec 23, 2021 90   @ DePaul W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 29, 2021 47   @ Providence W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 01, 2022 7   Villanova L 69-70 44%    
  Jan 04, 2022 107   @ Butler W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 23   Connecticut W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 15, 2022 67   @ Marquette W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 18, 2022 47   Providence W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 79   @ St. John's W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 26, 2022 67   Marquette W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 01, 2022 147   @ Georgetown W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 04, 2022 75   Creighton W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 35   Xavier W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 7   @ Villanova L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 16, 2022 23   @ Connecticut L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 90   DePaul W 81-70 82%    
  Feb 23, 2022 107   Butler W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 35   @ Xavier L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 147   Georgetown W 82-67 91%    
  Mar 05, 2022 75   @ Creighton W 74-71 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 5.0 4.8 3.0 1.1 0.2 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.8 7.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.4 7.1 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.0 5.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.0 4.9 7.3 9.7 12.5 13.8 13.5 12.4 9.6 6.0 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 95.3% 3.0    2.6 0.4
17-3 80.1% 4.8    3.5 1.3 0.0
16-4 52.0% 5.0    2.8 1.9 0.3
15-5 25.8% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.1% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 11.6 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.8% 45.2% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.0% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 2.4 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.6% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 3.3 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 23.1% 76.8% 4.2 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.6 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.5% 99.8% 18.3% 81.5% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.6 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 13.8% 99.1% 13.4% 85.7% 6.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 3.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 12.5% 96.0% 9.7% 86.2% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 95.6%
11-9 9.7% 88.6% 8.1% 80.4% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.1 87.5%
10-10 7.3% 72.0% 6.6% 65.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.0 70.0%
9-11 4.9% 40.8% 4.1% 36.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.9 38.3%
8-12 3.0% 13.4% 2.2% 11.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 11.4%
7-13 1.5% 2.9% 0.9% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.0%
6-14 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.5%
5-15 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 88.0% 16.3% 71.7% 5.8 4.2 6.8 9.5 10.7 11.0 11.1 9.9 8.4 6.7 4.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 85.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3