South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#343
Expected Predictive Rating-14.1#348
Pace78.1#18
Improvement-2.2#312

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#302
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#340
Layup/Dunks+0.7#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#276
Freethrows-1.1#251
Improvement-2.5#340

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#356
First Shot-7.1#355
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks-2.5#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#284
Freethrows-1.1#258
Improvement+0.4#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 5.6% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 69.8% 63.6% 71.4%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 91 - 15
Quad 44 - 105 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 72   @ North Carolina St. L 66-97 3%     0 - 1 -20.2 -5.5 -12.6
  Nov 08, 2024 129   @ Virginia Tech L 74-93 7%     0 - 2 -14.3 +2.2 -16.0
  Nov 13, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 80-85 4%     0 - 3 +4.0 +11.9 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington L 85-89 18%     0 - 4 -5.7 +1.7 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 76-87 8%     0 - 5 -6.6 -0.4 -5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 290   Queens L 74-98 32%     0 - 6 -30.7 -6.9 -22.2
  Nov 26, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 77-110 2%     0 - 7 -19.7 -0.6 -15.1
  Nov 30, 2024 272   @ Coastal Carolina L 51-73 21%     0 - 8 -25.0 -19.6 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 263   @ Western Carolina L 75-84 20%    
  Dec 14, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 64-87 2%    
  Dec 18, 2024 303   South Carolina St. L 77-78 45%    
  Dec 21, 2024 229   Youngstown St. L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 02, 2025 179   @ Winthrop L 74-88 11%    
  Jan 08, 2025 248   Presbyterian L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 189   Radford L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 15, 2025 193   @ UNC Asheville L 73-86 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 221   @ Gardner-Webb L 74-85 15%    
  Jan 22, 2025 141   High Point L 75-85 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 202   @ Longwood L 71-84 12%    
  Jan 29, 2025 276   Charleston Southern L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 189   @ Radford L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 05, 2025 248   @ Presbyterian L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   Winthrop L 77-85 25%    
  Feb 12, 2025 193   UNC Asheville L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   Gardner-Webb L 77-82 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   @ Charleston Southern L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 141   @ High Point L 72-88 8%    
  Mar 01, 2025 202   Longwood L 74-81 28%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 3 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.8 8.2 5.5 1.2 0.0 21.2 8th
9th 5.2 13.0 17.3 13.9 6.8 1.3 0.0 57.6 9th
Total 5.2 13.1 18.6 18.9 16.5 11.7 7.7 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 84.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 28.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.1% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-7 1.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-8 2.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 2.1
7-9 4.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.4
6-10 7.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.6
5-11 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
4-12 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
3-13 18.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.9
2-14 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
1-15 13.1% 13.1
0-16 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%