South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.4 291
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 261
Pace 74.2 42
Improvement -1.3 233

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 250 D+ D+ C- A- C+
Defense D 308 D D- C- C+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 77 C- 55% 247 +1.2 137
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 115 D+ 34% 293 -0.7 220
Three Pointers 37% 267 C- 32% 253 -2.9 278
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 153 D+ -2.7 278
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 259
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 255 C- 0.99 231 D+ 0.28 258
Turnovers C- 17.5% 227
Freethrows B+ 0.36 22 B- 75% 84 A- 0.27 19
Total Offense C- -2.8 250

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 288 D+ 13.2% 301
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 335 C 5.4% 211
Three Pointers C- 82% 232 C+ 0.8% 153
Total D 48% 321 D 7.0% 316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 53% 1 D+ 61% 274 +10.5 365
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 299 D- 44% 341 -0.6 143
Three Pointers 30% 363 C 34% 177 -5.7 3
Shot Selection/Accuracy F +1.6 365 D+ +2.5 278
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 316
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 277 F+ 1.20 353 D- 0.39 342
Turnovers C- 15.9% 233
Freethrows B- 0.28 107 D 75% 322 C+ 0.21 152
Total Defense D -4.6 308

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 99 D 6.9% 330
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 72 D- 1.2% 350
Three Pointers D+ 87% 282 C- 0.7% 193
Total B 50% 62 D+ 4.1% 300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 166 16.1 25
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 298 0.20 285
Improvement -2.3 #302 +1.0 #125

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 310 290 261
Conference Record 6 - 10 7 - 9 9 - 7
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6% 11% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 49% 72% 21%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 411 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 198 Utah Tech L 79 - 81 OT 41% -2  21% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 F D+ C- B +4 C- A- B-
 Wed, Nov 5 60 @Creighton L 76 - 92 5% -12  4% 0 - 2 C- -4 C +2 C D D D+ -5 A F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 341 Southern Indiana W 89 - 74 77% +9  84% 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 D- B- F B- +3 A- F C+
 Sun, Nov 16 284 Western Michigan W 83 - 78 60% -3  17% 2 - 2 D+ -5 C +1 D+ C- A+ D -6 F F A
 Thu, Nov 20 49 @Missouri L 68 - 102 3% -14  1% 2 - 3 F -20 D- -6 D+ A F F -12 F F A
 Sun, Nov 23 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 81 84% +8  93% 3 - 3 F+ -17 C- -1 C D F F -16 D- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 347 Air Force W 80 - 63 71% +11  96% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +2 C C F B- +2 A+ B- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 142 Portland St. L 71 - 77 30% -5  16% 4 - 4 D+ -8 D- -8 F A F+ C+ +0 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 6 156 @Northern Colorado L 87 - 89 OT 16% -2  19% 4 - 5 C +1 B- +5 B- C F D+ -4 F D C+
 Tue, Dec 9 104 @Wyoming L 79 - 106 9% -15  0% 4 - 6 F -20 C +1 D+ A D F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 334 Prairie View W 97 - 85 75% +9  82% 5 - 6 C- -2 B- +4 D+ C+ B D- -8 F D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 92 @Kansas St. L 76 - 106 7% -22  1% 5 - 7 F -21 C- -1 D+ D B+ F -18 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 132 @North Dakota St. L 61 - 84 13% -10  35% 5 - 8 0 - 1 F -18 D- -7 D- D F F -14 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 121 @St. Thomas L 86 - 99 11% -15  1% 5 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -7 B +7 A- C- F F -14 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 236 Denver W 82 - 72 49% +2  60% 6 - 9 1 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -3 B F C B+ +6 A D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 360 UMKC W 99 - 83 87% +17  96% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -3 A- +9 B A A- F -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 295 @North Dakota L 80 - 96 40% -11  3% 7 - 10 2 - 3 F -21 C +1 B F B- F -21 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 240 @Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 64 28% -2  27% 8 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +3 F -12 C- F F A+ +15 A C B
 Sat, Jan 24 121 St. Thomas L 78 - 90 25% -2  30% 8 - 11 3 - 4 D- -12 C +1 D C A+ F -14 D F C
 Thu, Jan 29 338 Oral Roberts W 77 - 69 76% +1  56% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D+ -7 D- -6 F C A+ C -1 D A F
 Sat, Jan 31 132 North Dakota St. L 84 - 89 OT 28% -7  4% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ C A F+ -8 F C- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 360 @UMKC W 82 - 75 OT 72% -2  26% 10 - 12 5 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 F D- B C -0 F B B+
 Sat, Feb 7 206 @South Dakota St. W 68 - 67 23% +3  67% 11 - 12 6 - 5 C +1 D- -7 C- F C+ A- +8 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 295 North Dakota L 71 - 72 63% +1  52% 11 - 13 6 - 6 D- -12 F+ -8 F D B D+ -3 C+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 19 236 @Denver L 70 - 90 27% -5  11% 11 - 14 6 - 7 F -21 D- -7 D D F+ F -16 D- B F
 Sat, Feb 21 338 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 77 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 240 Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 80 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 206 South Dakota St. L 77 - 79 44%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -7 C- -3 F+ D+ C+ D -5 C- B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D+ C- D+ 42% 43% 37% C+ D+ D+ C- D+ C- B+ B- A- D D+ D- C D+ 53% 17% 30% F D D+ F+ D- C- B- D C+
1.05 55% 34% 32% -3 0 0.97 28% 1.0 .28 18% .36 75% .27 1.15 61% 44% 34% +3 +2 1.10 33% 1.2 .39 16% .28 75% .27
Nov
3		 Utah Tech F F+ C- F F 49% 24% 27% C- F C D- D+ C- A+ A- A+ B C- F A+ C+ 54% 8% 38% F C- C+ A+ A- B- B A B+
0.96 52% 36% 13% -12 0 0.78 32% 0.9 .27 17% .51 77% .39 0.98 61% 80% 26% 0 +3 1.08 28% 0.6 .16 18% .19 62% .12
Nov
5		 Creighton C C F C C- 54% 20% 25% A C A+ F D D B- D- C D+ C B- A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D+ A F F F A- A F B
1.04 56% 25% 33% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.5 .22 18% .23 64% .15 1.26 63% 36% 22% -4 +1 0.96 54% 1.5 .83 18% .18 91% .17
Nov
12		 Southern Indiana D B- F F F+ 61% 24% 14% C+ D- C B B- F A+ A- A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A 44% 19% 37% D- A- A- F F C+ F F F
1.06 63% 8% 29% -5 +1 0.94 34% 1.1 .37 21% .70 80% .56 0.88 43% 20% 21% -17 +1 0.69 22% 1.6 .34 18% .48 82% .39
Nov
16		 Western Michigan C F A+ C+ D+ 28% 15% 57% D+ D+ D B+ C- A+ B- F C D F D A F 62% 15% 23% F F F F F A A- F B
1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21 1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17
Nov
20		 Missouri D- A- D- F+ D+ 23% 27% 50% D+ D+ B- A+ A F A F C F F+ F F F 68% 13% 19% F F F B F A F F F
0.92 64% 31% 29% -4 -2 0.90 32% 1.3 .39 23% .37 57% .21 1.38 72% 50% 56% +17 +3 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 23% .53 80% .42
Nov
23		 South Carolina St. C- C C+ B- C 55% 15% 30% C+ C A+ F D F A+ F A- F B- C D- C 59% 16% 25% F D- F F F D C- F F
1.16 62% 43% 36% +3 +2 1.13 55% 0.7 .39 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 50% 38% 38% -3 +2 1.00 43% 1.2 .51 18% .33 84% .28
Nov
29		 Air Force C+ B+ A+ F C 45% 20% 35% B- C A+ F C F A+ B- A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 68% 7% 24% F A+ A+ F B- F+ F F F
1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33 0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46
Dec
3		 Portland St. D- F D+ F F 62% 12% 26% A+ F B- A+ A F+ A+ F A+ C+ C A+ D B- 75% 9% 15% F C- A- A A D F C F
0.93 39% 33% 23% -17 +3 0.74 33% 1.3 .43 22% .57 68% .38 1.00 58% 0% 38% -3 +4 1.04 25% 0.8 .19 17% .41 69% .28
Dec
6		 Northern Colorado B- C A+ F B- 58% 23% 19% B- B- C C- C F A A+ A+ D+ F D- F F 47% 17% 36% D F A F D C+ F A+ F+
1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39 1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22
Dec
9		 Wyoming C F B A- C 35% 29% 37% F D+ C A+ A D A+ A- A+ F F+ D- F F 59% 7% 34% F F C- F F D+ C D- C-
1.06 41% 43% 39% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.4 .37 19% .55 76% .41 1.43 67% 50% 47% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 15% .33 81% .27
Dec
13		 Prairie View B- C- A+ F D 52% 19% 29% B- D+ B D C+ B A+ B A+ D- C F C+ D 67% 12% 22% F F F+ D+ D- B A- B- A-
1.22 56% 56% 29% 0 +1 1.04 42% 1.0 .42 16% .66 77% .51 1.07 55% 57% 31% -1 +3 1.07 29% 1.1 .31 18% .28 72% .20
Dec
20		 Kansas St. C- C- F A+ D+ 49% 23% 28% B- D+ D- B- D B+ B- F D F F F F F 60% 3% 36% F F F F F C- C+ D+ C
1.01 54% 0% 44% -7 0 0.89 27% 1.3 .33 16% .31 55% .17 1.40 71% 50% 48% +16 +4 1.41 41% 1.3 .52 16% .25 75% .19
Dec
31		 North Dakota St. D- F A- A- D 25% 30% 45% F D- C- F D F B+ A+ A F F F A+ F+ 40% 19% 40% D- F+ F F F F+ D+ A- C
0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27 1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20
Jan
7		 St. Thomas B C- B- A+ A 38% 20% 42% D+ A- C D+ C- F B- A+ A F F C+ F F 54% 11% 36% D F B- F F D D+ F+ D
1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28 1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25
Jan
10		 Denver D+ B C A B 49% 15% 36% B- B F F F C B B- B B+ A- F A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D A C+ F D C+ A F B+
1.17 65% 38% 42% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.4 .09 13% .36 73% .26 1.02 45% 57% 22% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.4 .39 16% .22 85% .19
Jan
15		 UMKC A- D- A+ A+ B 46% 13% 41% B- B C A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ F D- B- D F 48% 20% 33% F F C- B C+ F C- A+ B-
1.30 52% 57% 45% +7 +2 1.19 38% 1.3 .50 13% .38 84% .32 1.09 62% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.8 .22 10% .26 56% .15
Jan
17		 North Dakota C C+ F A+ B 44% 10% 46% C+ B F F F B- B A+ A+ F F C C F 52% 18% 30% C- F F F F F A+ A+ A+
1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35 1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06
Jan
21		 Nebraska Omaha F A- F C C- 30% 17% 52% C- C- F A+ F F A B- A A+ F C- A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% D A C+ D C B F A+ C-
0.94 71% 25% 33% +1 0 1.04 11% 1.3 .14 24% .38 76% .29 0.89 70% 40% 6% -9 +1 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Jan
24		 St. Thomas C C F D D 46% 17% 37% C+ D F A+ C A+ A+ B A+ F D F D- D 45% 8% 47% D+ D F C- F C F F F
1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30 1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34
Jan
29		 Oral Roberts D- F+ F F F 67% 8% 25% A F F+ A+ C A+ A+ D A+ C A F F+ D 53% 24% 24% C D B A+ A F B A- B+
1.09 47% 25% 25% -12 +4 0.85 26% 1.5 .38 7% .56 68% .38 0.97 41% 62% 38% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.6 .13 14% .25 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Dakota St. C+ B A+ C- C 35% 13% 52% B- C+ F A+ C A A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D F F 50% 13% 38% F F C+ D- C- A- A F B+
1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32 1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15
Feb
4		 UMKC D- D F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F F A D- B A+ A+ A+ C F A C- F 47% 32% 21% C- F A+ D- B B+ B C- B
1.02 54% 13% 27% -10 +1 0.85 23% 1.3 .29 15% .51 80% .41 0.93 70% 28% 33% +2 -1 1.05 18% 1.0 .18 22% .21 69% .14
Feb
7		 South Dakota St. D- F+ C B C 30% 19% 51% C- C- F D F C+ F F F A- A D+ F C 40% 35% 25% A+ B- A+ B- A+ D+ A F B
0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13 0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15
Feb
11		 North Dakota F+ A D F F 54% 6% 40% A- F C- D- D B F+ B+ D D+ A F A- B+ 71% 8% 21% F C+ F D F D- A- C+ B+
1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24 1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19
Feb
19		 Denver D- A+ F F D+ 38% 26% 36% D- D F A+ D F+ A+ C- A+ F B C F F 30% 41% 30% A D- D- A+ B F F F F
1.07 87% 10% 29% +1 -1 1.03 19% 1.6 .31 17% .65 69% .44 1.38 50% 41% 56% +9 -3 1.13 35% 0.8 .29 6% .41 92% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 15.4 13.0 28.5 4th
5th 4.3 17.0 21.3 5th
6th 0.5 18.5 3.8 22.8 6th
7th 13.2 14.2 27.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 13.7 37.1 36.3 13.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 13.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 12.6
8-8 36.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 35.4
7-9 37.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.6 36.5
6-10 13.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.9 98.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.6 0.8 35.9 63.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%
Lose Out 11.5%