St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#161
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#107
Pace69.2#161
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#234
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 24.3% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 81.7% 83.9% 61.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 87.1% 76.8%
Conference Champion 32.3% 33.6% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.7% 3.7%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 3.1%
First Round23.6% 24.6% 14.5%
Second Round1.5% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 416 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 58-84 9%     0 - 1 -11.6 -1.7 -12.0
  Nov 08, 2025 343   Army W 80-66 90%    
  Nov 10, 2025 146   @ Washington St. L 76-80 36%    
  Nov 13, 2025 319   Green Bay W 82-71 85%    
  Nov 15, 2025 238   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 21, 2025 184   Northern Colorado W 76-75 55%    
  Nov 22, 2025 340   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-67 82%    
  Nov 23, 2025 280   @ Portland W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 03, 2025 210   @ Montana St. L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 06, 2025 283   Weber St. W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 13, 2025 179   @ UNC Asheville L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 20, 2025 271   UC Riverside W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 03, 2026 327   Denver W 82-70 85%    
  Jan 07, 2026 301   South Dakota W 88-78 81%    
  Jan 10, 2026 315   @ Oral Roberts W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 15, 2026 316   @ North Dakota W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 17, 2026 198   @ North Dakota St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2026 147   South Dakota St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 301   @ South Dakota W 85-81 64%    
  Jan 29, 2026 316   North Dakota W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 01, 2026 298   UMKC W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 04, 2026 147   @ South Dakota St. L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 07, 2026 315   Oral Roberts W 80-69 82%    
  Feb 12, 2026 190   @ Nebraska Omaha L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 14, 2026 298   @ UMKC W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 21, 2026 327   @ Denver W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 26, 2026 198   North Dakota St. W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 28, 2026 190   Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.3 8.9 8.0 4.5 1.5 32.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.4 7.7 6.6 2.6 0.5 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.9 5.8 8.5 11.0 12.9 14.3 13.4 11.5 8.4 4.5 1.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-1 100.0% 4.5    4.4 0.1
14-2 94.5% 8.0    6.9 1.0 0.0
13-3 77.0% 8.9    6.2 2.5 0.1
12-4 46.8% 6.3    2.9 2.6 0.7 0.0
11-5 19.8% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 32.3% 32.3 22.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 60.7% 60.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-1 4.5% 53.2% 53.2% 12.7 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-2 8.4% 46.9% 46.9% 13.3 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.5
13-3 11.5% 36.9% 36.9% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.2 7.3
12-4 13.4% 29.5% 29.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 9.5
11-5 14.3% 23.1% 23.1% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 11.0
10-6 12.9% 15.9% 15.9% 16.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 10.8
9-7 11.0% 11.8% 11.8% 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 9.7
8-8 8.5% 8.8% 8.8% 18.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.8
7-9 5.8% 6.0% 6.0% 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.5
6-10 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.5 0.0 0.1 3.8
5-11 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
4-12 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.9 6.6 5.6 3.9 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.3 4.2 4.2 25.0 4.2 20.8 37.5 4.2