St. Thomas
Summit League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#323
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#274
Pace66.0#261
Improvement+1.0#103

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#142
First Shot+1.0#155
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks-6.5#339
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+14.6#1
Freethrows-3.8#348
Improvement-1.7#308

Defense
Total Defense-10.8#357
First Shot-10.5#358
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#204
Layups/Dunks-4.3#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#337
Freethrows+1.2#123
Improvement+2.7#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 4.7% 9.7% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 13.6% 18.1% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 16.3% 23.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 48 - 99 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. L 72-77 64%     0 - 1 -18.5 -2.3 -16.4
  Nov 13, 2021 337   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 91-73 50%     1 - 1 +8.2 +12.2 -4.3
  Nov 15, 2021 235   @ Fordham L 78-84 20%     1 - 2 -7.0 +8.6 -15.6
  Nov 19, 2021 236   @ Youngstown St. L 75-79 20%     1 - 3 -5.0 +2.3 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2021 221   Niagara W 76-67 24%     2 - 3 +6.5 +14.4 -6.4
  Nov 21, 2021 324   SIU Edwardsville W 86-73 50%     3 - 3 +3.1 +15.0 -11.0
  Nov 27, 2021 199   @ Seattle L 64-81 14%     3 - 4 -15.4 -5.1 -11.3
  Dec 05, 2021 72   @ Drake L 64-74 4%     3 - 5 +0.0 +1.4 -2.4
  Dec 11, 2021 192   Montana St. L 72-78 30%    
  Dec 20, 2021 336   @ Nebraska Omaha L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 318   @ Denver L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 159   Western Illinois L 76-83 24%    
  Jan 06, 2022 166   Oral Roberts L 76-83 26%    
  Jan 08, 2022 223   UMKC L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 194   @ North Dakota St. L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 15, 2022 332   @ North Dakota L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 20, 2022 68   South Dakota St. L 77-91 10%    
  Jan 22, 2022 245   South Dakota L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 159   @ Western Illinois L 73-86 11%    
  Feb 03, 2022 223   @ UMKC L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 05, 2022 166   @ Oral Roberts L 73-86 12%    
  Feb 10, 2022 332   North Dakota W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 194   North Dakota St. L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 245   @ South Dakota L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 68   @ South Dakota St. L 74-94 4%    
  Feb 24, 2022 318   Denver W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 336   Nebraska Omaha W 78-72 70%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.2 7.7 6.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 20.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.6 8.5 5.9 1.5 0.1 21.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.1 7.5 3.8 0.7 0.1 18.5 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.3 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.7 10th
Total 0.4 2.0 5.5 9.9 14.1 15.8 15.8 13.0 9.8 6.7 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 32.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.3
12-6 0.9% 0.9
11-7 1.9% 1.9
10-8 3.7% 3.7
9-9 6.7% 6.7
8-10 9.8% 9.8
7-11 13.0% 13.0
6-12 15.8% 15.8
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 5.5% 5.5
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%