St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#135
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#139
Pace69.4#187
Improvement+4.1#11

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#129
First Shot+6.7#32
After Offensive Rebound-5.2#365
Layup/Dunks+9.9#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#68
Freethrows-1.9#299
Improvement+2.8#23

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#152
First Shot-0.8#195
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#104
Layups/Dunks-2.8#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement+1.4#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.8% 36.0% 27.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 98.2% 90.6%
Conference Champion 48.7% 52.0% 28.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round34.8% 35.9% 27.4%
Second Round2.0% 2.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 6
Quad 417 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 44 @St. Mary's L 58-84 12%     0 - 1 -11.3 -1.4 -11.9
  Sat, Nov 8 331 Army W 83-76 91%     1 - 1 -6.3 +5.3 -11.5
  Mon, Nov 10 149 @Washington St. L 71-81 42%     1 - 2 -6.2 +1.1 -7.5
  Thu, Nov 13 283 Green Bay W 80-61 85%     2 - 2 +9.4 -0.3 +9.7
  Sat, Nov 15 215 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 58%     3 - 2 +11.5 +4.0 +6.5
  Fri, Nov 21 171 Northern Colorado W 73-72 59%     4 - 2 +0.3 -3.9 +4.3
  Sat, Nov 22 242 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 73%     4 - 3 -12.7 -2.0 -10.0
  Sun, Nov 23 256 @Portland W 76-66 65%     5 - 3 +7.7 +1.4 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 168 @Montana St. L 74-82 47%     5 - 4 -5.6 +5.6 -11.5
  Sun, Dec 7 223 Weber St. W 88-65 79%     6 - 4 +16.2 +10.3 +5.8
  Sat, Dec 13 232 @UNC Asheville W 80-59 62%     7 - 4 +19.6 +10.3 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 20 272 UC Riverside W 92-78 84%     8 - 4 +5.0 +14.7 -9.6
  Sun, Jan 4 290 Denver W 86-75 86%    
  Wed, Jan 7 291 South Dakota W 88-76 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 303 @Oral Roberts W 79-72 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 333 @North Dakota W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 155 @North Dakota St. L 74-76 44%    
  Thu, Jan 22 172 South Dakota St. W 79-74 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 291 @South Dakota W 85-79 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 333 North Dakota W 82-67 92%    
  Sun, Feb 1 343 UMKC W 81-65 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 172 @South Dakota St. L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 303 Oral Roberts W 82-69 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 221 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 343 @UMKC W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 290 @Denver W 83-78 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 155 North Dakota St. W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 221 Nebraska Omaha W 80-71 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 9.2 14.5 13.2 7.0 1.9 48.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.5 8.8 3.6 0.5 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.8 4.3 1.0 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 15.6 19.0 18.1 13.8 7.0 1.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
15-1 100.0% 7.0    6.9 0.1
14-2 96.0% 13.2    11.7 1.5 0.0
13-3 79.8% 14.5    9.8 4.3 0.3
12-4 48.5% 9.2    4.1 4.1 1.0 0.1
11-5 16.8% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.7% 48.7 35.0 11.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.9% 59.1% 59.1% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-1 7.0% 52.3% 52.3% 12.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.3
14-2 13.8% 47.4% 47.4% 13.4 0.5 3.2 2.6 0.2 7.2
13-3 18.1% 41.6% 41.6% 13.8 0.2 2.3 4.2 0.9 10.6
12-4 19.0% 35.7% 35.7% 14.1 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.7 0.1 12.2
11-5 15.6% 28.6% 28.6% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.9 0.1 11.1
10-6 11.1% 23.4% 23.4% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 8.5
9-7 6.9% 18.2% 18.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 5.6
8-8 3.8% 14.6% 14.6% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.2
7-9 1.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.5
6-10 0.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-11 0.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.8% 34.8% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 2.3 9.4 14.6 7.2 1.0 65.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.9 0.3 25.5 60.3 13.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%