Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 310
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 317
Pace 72.6 74
Improvement +1.5 130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 291 C- C D- D+ C+
Defense D 303 D+ D F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 D 53% 308 +0.7 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 73 B- 42% 62 +1.5 97
Three Pointers 34% 314 C- 32% 245 -4.2 318
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 172 D+ -2.2 261
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 244
Second Chance C 31.1% 166 C 1.03 175 C 0.32 152
Turnovers D- 20.2% 342
Freethrows C 0.31 183 F 64% 363 D+ 0.20 276
Total Offense D+ -4.5 291

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 235 D- 14.3% 337
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 255 C+ 4.7% 158
Three Pointers D 78% 300 C- 1.0% 218
Total D 48% 319 F+ 7.7% 343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 10 C- 59% 212 +5.3 340
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 215 C- 39% 223 -0.3 167
Three Pointers 34% 346 D+ 36% 275 -2.4 82
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 310 D+ +1.8 253
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 263
Second Chance C- 31.7% 235 D 1.13 316 D 0.36 302
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 351
Freethrows B- 0.27 83 D+ 74% 292 B- 0.20 109
Total Defense D -4.4 303

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 143 D+ 8.5% 277
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 81 C- 3.9% 236
Three Pointers B 79% 55 D+ 0.4% 289
Total B- 51% 80 C- 4.9% 236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 198 16.0 16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 183 0.21 299
Improvement -0.6 #225 +2.2 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 326 308 281
Conference Record 8 - 8 9 - 7 11 - 5
Conference Finish 5 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 9% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 100% 75%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 9% 7%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 412 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0% 0 - 1 F -40 F -20 F D+ F F -16 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 325 New Haven L 67 - 73 68% +1  54% 0 - 2 F -20 F -10 F A+ D+ F -10 F F B-
 Thu, Nov 13 197 @Columbia L 72 - 86 18% -1  57% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 B- F+ F F -10 D F+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 61 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  1% 0 - 4 F -22 C- -1 B- D C+ F -18 D- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 120 @Bradley L 77 - 87 9% +0  46% 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +7 B- D C F -12 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 235 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 23% -2  22% 0 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 A- D F B+ +6 A F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 345 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 53% +5  91% 1 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 D+ C+ B- C -1 B D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 182 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 16% -8  11% 1 - 7 F -18 F -20 F+ D F B +4 C A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 193 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 18% +1  58% 1 - 8 C- -3 D -6 A F F B- +3 B F+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 290 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 56% -0  46% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C -0 C D+ B D -5 F C+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @Boston University L 76 - 88 27% -9  0% 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 B- B- F F -16 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 26 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  0% 2 - 10 D -9 C- -1 B C- D F -11 D C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 316 Albany W 83 - 71 64% +10  88% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 B- +4 D A+ B- D+ -4 B- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 354 @Bryant W 77 - 63 59% +6  86% 4 - 10 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ A- F+ C+ +1 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 65% +6  92% 5 - 10 3 - 0 D+ -8 D- -8 D D F+ C -0 D+ B- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 315 NJIT L 64 - 73 64% -10  2% 5 - 11 3 - 1 F -21 F -16 F D- D- D -5 C A F
 Thu, Jan 22 229 Vermont L 68 - 77 42% -5  13% 5 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A- F D- -7 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 232 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 22% -12  0% 5 - 13 3 - 3 F -24 F -17 F F+ C- F+ -9 D+ D D+
 Thu, Jan 29 344 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 53% -3  12% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -16 F C- D+ C+ +1 B- C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 346 Maine W 91 - 77 74% +11  88% 6 - 14 4 - 4 C- -2 A- +11 A A+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 315 @NJIT L 56 - 81 41% -19  3% 6 - 15 4 - 5 F -31 F -19 F D F F -13 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 316 @Albany W 89 - 79 41% +5  74% 7 - 15 5 - 5 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ A+ D- D- -7 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 354 Bryant W 88 - 69 79% +12  99% 8 - 15 6 - 5 C+ +2 A- +11 A- A+ C- D- -7 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 19 344 New Hampshire W 78 - 56 74% +13  94% 9 - 15 7 - 5 B- +6 D+ -3 C+ C- B- A +10 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 21 359 Binghamton W 79 - 69 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 229 @Vermont L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 76 42%
 Tue, Mar 3 346 @Maine W 69 - 68 53%
Totals 11 - 17 9 - 7 -9 D+ -5 F+ D+ C+ D -4 C- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B- C- D+ 44% 48% 34% C+ C- C C C D- C F D+ D C- C- D+ D+ 47% 19% 34% D D+ C- D D F+ B- D+ B-
1.02 53% 42% 32% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.0 .32 20% .31 64% .20 1.15 59% 39% 36% +2 +1 1.07 32% 1.1 .36 13% .27 74% .23
Nov
7		 Connecticut F F F C- F 43% 26% 31% C F D C- D+ F A+ C A+ F F F D- F 61% 7% 32% F F F B- F D D+ F+ D-
0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43 1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26
Nov
10		 New Haven F F B F F 35% 15% 50% C F B A+ A+ D+ A+ B- A+ F C D F F 45% 24% 31% C- F F F+ F B- D+ B+ C-
0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37 1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18
Nov
13		 Columbia D+ D+ F A+ B- 55% 22% 24% B- B- C- F F+ F D- F F+ F B+ F F D 57% 14% 29% D- D F A+ F+ B+ F C+ F
1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34
Nov
16		 Wake Forest C- C A+ D- C+ 45% 15% 40% B B- D D D C+ C- C- C- F D+ F D- D- 41% 14% 45% D D- C- F F F D+ F+ D-
0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21 1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29
Nov
19		 Bradley B+ A+ B+ C- A- 21% 47% 32% F B- C F D C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 30% 36% 34% A+ F F F F C+ F C+ F
1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40 1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33
Nov
22		 St. Peter's F+ A+ B+ F A- 58% 18% 24% B A- B F D F A+ F B B+ A+ D A+ A+ 35% 13% 53% D- A A- F F C- A+ C A+
0.93 73% 43% 22% +5 +2 1.16 41% 0.8 .31 34% .61 55% .34 0.95 37% 43% 24% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.6 .45 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Stonehill C+ C+ F+ F+ D 42% 13% 45% B D+ B- D+ C+ B- A+ F C C A+ A C+ B+ 34% 20% 46% B- B D C D+ F A- F B
1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19 0.93 37% 27% 31% -12 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12
Dec
6		 Massachusetts F F A+ F F 57% 20% 24% B F+ D C- D F A F D- B C+ F+ B C 50% 28% 22% C C D+ A+ A D+ A- D B
0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23 1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19
Dec
13		 Quinnipiac D D- B- A+ A 50% 15% 35% B A F F F F D- F F B- D- A- A+ B 43% 29% 27% C+ B D+ F F+ F+ F B F
0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13 1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29
Dec
16		 Sacred Heart C F A+ A+ C- 46% 11% 44% B C B- F D+ B C- F D- D C- F F F 22% 24% 55% A- F B D C+ C A B+ A+
1.19 46% 67% 44% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .31 12% .25 56% .14 1.12 58% 54% 43% +11 -2 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 19% .19 73% .13
Dec
21		 Boston University C C+ A+ B- B- 47% 19% 34% B- B- C A- B- F A+ F C F F F F F 47% 20% 33% C- F D F F D+ F C+ F+
1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20 1.35 76% 67% 47% +21 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26
Dec
29		 Iowa C- B F A- B 50% 20% 30% B B B- F+ C- D B+ F D- F F+ F B- D 60% 15% 25% F D C B- C+ F+ F+ F F
0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18 1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38
Jan
3		 Albany B- C- C- D- D 53% 22% 25% C+ D A+ B- A+ B- D+ D- D D+ C+ A+ B B+ 54% 15% 31% F B- C F F D- C+ B+ B-
1.24 56% 36% 31% -3 +1 0.98 50% 1.3 .64 13% .29 71% .21 1.06 55% 25% 29% -6 +2 0.94 31% 1.3 .40 16% .23 62% .14
Jan
8		 Bryant C+ A- C+ D+ B- 50% 26% 24% D C+ C A+ A- F+ C+ D+ C C+ B D C D 31% 20% 49% B+ D+ B C- C+ F A A A+
1.19 68% 38% 33% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.3 .46 17% .32 71% .22 0.97 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 14% .16 67% .11
Jan
10		 Binghamton D- F B A+ D+ 40% 24% 36% D D F A+ D F+ A+ D- A+ C C A+ D C- 57% 16% 27% F D+ C A- B- D+ B- A B+
1.06 44% 45% 44% +2 0 1.04 19% 1.5 .28 16% .52 67% .34 0.98 55% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .34 68% .23
Jan
15		 NJIT F F D+ F F 47% 24% 29% C F D D- D- D- A C A- D A- F B+ C+ 44% 17% 39% F C B A+ A F F+ F F
0.91 46% 33% 27% -10 0 0.82 30% 0.9 .28 17% .43 72% .31 1.04 46% 56% 29% -6 +1 0.93 22% 0.6 .12 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
22		 Vermont F+ F+ F+ C+ F+ 23% 35% 42% F F B- A A- F D A- C- D- C+ F D- D- 46% 18% 37% D D- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22 1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12
Jan
24		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% C F D+ F F+ C- F+ D+ F+ F+ D+ C+ C D+ 50% 21% 29% F+ D+ C- F+ D D+ F+ F F
0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10 1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33
Jan
29		 New Hampshire F F A- F F 47% 31% 22% D F D B- C- D+ F F F C+ C A+ A B 51% 13% 36% D- B- A- F C+ F+ D+ D+ D+
0.88 46% 47% 17% -9 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 16% .22 62% .14 0.95 56% 0% 26% -10 +2 0.85 20% 1.1 .22 14% .29 71% .20
Jan
31		 Maine A- C A+ A- B+ 66% 8% 26% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F D A+ B+ F F A+ B- F 61% 9% 30% F F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C-
1.28 61% 75% 38% +6 +4 1.22 63% 1.2 .74 25% .28 93% .26 1.08 68% 20% 29% +2 +3 1.13 3% 0.0 .00 10% .30 74% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 NJIT F F C F F 42% 29% 29% D- F B- F D F A+ F A F F A+ B D- 41% 16% 43% F F+ D- F F F A+ A A+
0.82 30% 36% 14% -21 -1 0.58 37% 0.8 .28 21% .52 61% .31 1.19 78% 11% 29% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.2 .36 7% .21 62% .13
Feb
7		 Albany A- B+ D- A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D B+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ D- A+ D- B F B- C 49% 20% 31% D+ C A- F F F F B+ F
1.28 67% 31% 50% +8 0 1.17 38% 1.6 .62 17% .54 71% .38 1.14 52% 50% 31% -2 +1 1.00 25% 1.6 .41 10% .42 62% .26
Feb
12		 Bryant A- D+ A+ A+ A- 50% 17% 33% C+ A- A A+ A+ C- B+ F C+ D- B+ A+ D+ C- 37% 12% 51% C- C- F F F D+ D+ A C
1.35 54% 75% 44% +9 +1 1.23 45% 1.3 .58 14% .36 65% .23 1.06 47% 17% 35% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.4 .52 20% .29 67% .19
Feb
19		 New Hampshire D+ C C+ D- C- 59% 9% 31% A+ C+ F+ A C- B- D+ F F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% D- A+ C C C F A+ F A+
1.11 59% 40% 29% -1 +3 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 13% .29 61% .18 0.79 31% 33% 24% -20 +2 0.67 25% 0.9 .23 14% .08 100% .08



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 10.4 1.7 12.7 3rd
4th 1.0 20.2 39.0 14.0 74.2 4th
5th 3.1 5.1 1.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 4.2 25.4 40.6 24.8 5.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.2
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 5.0% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.2
10-6 24.8% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 2.9 21.9
9-7 40.6% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 3.5 37.0
8-8 25.4% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.6 23.7
7-9 4.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 4.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 16.0 90.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 2.6%