UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.1 300
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 275
Pace 67.7 208
Improvement -0.3 202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 205 D+ D+ B- B D+
Defense D- 340 D- C- F+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 270 D+ 55% 263 -3.0 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 101 D+ 35% 272 +0.8 133
Three Pointers 40% 199 C- 33% 231 -1.1 222
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 279 D+ -2.6 267
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 280
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 272 C 1.02 184 D+ 0.28 257
Turnovers B- 15.8% 113
Freethrows B+ 0.37 23 D+ 69% 277 B 0.25 68
Total Offense C- -1.5 205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 D+ 62% 287 +0.2 172
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 204 C- 39% 215 +0.1 178
Three Pointers 45% 73 F+ 39% 353 -5.3 352
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 150 D- +4.9 341
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 326
Second Chance C 30.6% 189 C- 1.07 255 C- 0.33 229
Turnovers F+ 13.2% 347
Freethrows B 0.26 58 C+ 71% 108 B 0.19 54
Total Defense D- -6.7 340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 206 16.8 91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 317 0.16 152
Improvement +1.3 #118 -1.6 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 48% 73% 30%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 100 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 7% -7  40% 0 - 1 F -21 F -16 F+ F F+ C -1 D- D- A-
 Sat, Nov 8 220 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 42% -1  34% 0 - 2 D -8 C+ +3 A F C+ F+ -11 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 27 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 2% -15  6% 0 - 3 F -28 D- -8 F C- C- F -17 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 151 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 31% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -9 F -15 F+ F B B+ +7 A- C C
 Thu, Nov 20 216 @Queens L 94 - 101 22% -8  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +16 B- B A+ F -23 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 194 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 29% -9  6% 1 - 5 C+ +4 F -11 D F F A+ +14 A A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 273 Delaware L 60 - 73 43% -1  37% 1 - 6 F -19 F -13 F F C D- -8 F A D+
 Wed, Nov 26 86 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  54% 1 - 7 C- -5 D -6 F+ A F C+ +1 C+ A D+
 Tue, Dec 2 208 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 30% -0  53% 1 - 8 D+ -8 B +6 A C C- F -14 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 251 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 28% +2  72% 2 - 8 C+ +2 B+ +8 D A+ B- D -6 D+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 16 285 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 58% -6  3% 2 - 9 F+ -16 F -11 F C- A- D -6 C C F+
 Thu, Jan 1 283 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 57% +1  50% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -5 C +0 C+ C F+ D+ -5 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 195 Samford W 89 - 82 39% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +15 B- B+ A+ F -13 D- F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 212 @Wofford L 85 - 97 22% -11  6% 4 - 10 2 - 1 D- -12 B+ +8 B- B B F -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 129 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 11% -10  6% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F -21 F -15 F B- F D -5 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 346 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 76% -4  24% 5 - 11 3 - 2 D- -12 F -13 F F B- C+ +1 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 173 Mercer L 92 - 102 33% -12  1% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 B+ +9 B+ F+ A+ F -22 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 360 @VMI W 85 - 78 67% +6  82% 6 - 12 4 - 3 D+ -6 B +7 D D+ A+ F -12 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 177 Furman L 66 - 89 34% -5  4% 6 - 13 4 - 4 F -27 D+ -4 C- D C+ F -25 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 173 @Mercer L 77 - 95 16% -14  13% 6 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -16 C- -1 F B- A+ F -14 D- F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 346 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 55% -2  22% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -14 F -12 F C- F+ C- -2 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 264 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 52% +0  34% 7 - 15 5 - 6 D+ -6 C+ +3 D+ B D D- -8 D- B- D
 Sun, Feb 8 177 @Furman W 67 - 64 17% +4  79% 8 - 15 6 - 6 B- +5 C +1 B F C+ B +4 B+ B- D
 Wed, Feb 11 360 VMI W 92 - 71 84% +15  90% 9 - 15 7 - 6 C+ +2 B +7 B F+ A- D+ -4 F B- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 212 Wofford L 78 - 80 42%
 Wed, Feb 18 264 @Western Carolina L 77 - 82 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 129 East Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 283 @Chattanooga L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 195 @Samford L 73 - 82 20%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -8 F -1 A+ D+ D+ D- -7 C- D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D+ C- D+ 35% 24% 40% D+ D+ D+ C D+ B- B+ D+ B D- D+ C- F+ D- 36% 20% 45% C D- C C- C- F+ B C+ B
1.07 55% 35% 33% -3 -1 0.95 27% 1.0 .28 16% .37 69% .25 1.18 62% 39% 39% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.1 .33 13% .26 71% .26
Nov
4		 Kansas St. F D F F+ F 47% 20% 33% B F+ F+ F+ F F+ B F C- C C+ F F D- 41% 19% 40% C+ D- C F D- A- D- A+ C+
0.80 50% 18% 28% -11 +1 0.82 24% 1.0 .24 23% .32 60% .19 1.16 58% 45% 48% +10 0 1.22 34% 1.3 .44 20% .31 55% .17
Nov
8		 Elon C+ D C+ A+ A 30% 19% 51% C- A D+ F F C+ A+ F B+ F+ B- A+ F C 38% 16% 47% B+ C+ F A+ B+ F F C+ F
1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25 1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
12		 North Carolina St. D- F C F F 26% 21% 54% D- F D- B+ C- C- A+ D- A+ F D+ B- F D 38% 15% 48% C D B F F F C C- C-
0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45 1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26
Nov
15		 Austin Peay F C- C- F+ F+ 35% 22% 43% D+ F+ F D F B A D- B+ B+ B- A+ B+ A- 39% 22% 39% C+ A- C+ C C C B- A+ B+
0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25 0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16
Nov
20		 Queens A+ B A+ D+ C+ 58% 12% 30% A B- D- A+ B A+ A+ F A+ F D C- F F 36% 9% 55% D F F B- D- F F+ F F
1.38 66% 50% 33% +6 +3 1.18 27% 1.6 .42 6% .56 67% .37 1.49 65% 40% 48% +15 +1 1.34 40% 1.0 .40 9% .37 87% .32
Nov
23		 Youngstown St. F A+ B F C 22% 45% 33% F D F+ F F F B F+ C+ A+ B C+ B+ B+ 23% 30% 47% A+ A A A+ A+ D+ A- C- A-
0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27 0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13
Nov
25		 Delaware F F+ F B- D- 4% 43% 53% F F F F F C A+ B- A+ D- F D+ F F 14% 38% 48% A+ F B- A+ A D+ A A+ A+
0.94 50% 25% 36% -4 -5 0.83 21% 0.6 .13 14% .40 82% .33 1.14 86% 42% 54% +20 -4 1.34 19% 0.4 .07 17% .15 50% .08
Nov
26		 Miami (OH) D D- C F+ F+ 33% 22% 46% C- F+ C A+ A F A+ C A+ C+ F C- B B- 33% 9% 58% D+ C+ B A+ A D+ C+ C- C+
0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35 1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24
Dec
2		 UNC Asheville B A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D- A D- A C C- A- B A- F B- F F F 35% 35% 31% D F C+ F F F D+ D+ D
1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28 1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 East Carolina B+ C+ A- F D 35% 31% 35% D- D B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D F A- A+ C- 42% 14% 44% F D+ F F F A- B+ A A-
1.18 59% 47% 24% -2 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36 1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18
Dec
16		 N.C. A&T F F D- D F 26% 28% 46% F F B- F+ C- A- C F D- D D- A C+ C 28% 28% 44% B- C F A+ C F+ B F C
1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17 1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
1		 Chattanooga C C A+ D- B- 40% 19% 40% C C+ A- F C F+ A+ D- A+ D+ F F C F 25% 15% 60% C F B A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38 1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09
Jan
3		 Samford A+ F D A+ B 32% 44% 24% F B- C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F A B D- 31% 14% 55% D+ D- F+ D- F F+ D A C
1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35 1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24
Jan
7		 Wofford B+ F+ F A+ B- 44% 19% 37% C- B- C+ A- B B B+ F C F A- F D- D+ 39% 14% 46% C D+ F+ F F F F+ C- F+
1.23 48% 30% 53% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 13% .35 67% .23 1.40 45% 50% 38% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.8 .60 6% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 43% 18% 39% C F B C- B- F A+ C+ A+ D F C C F 53% 17% 30% D- F A+ F B+ F+ A+ C+ A+
0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37 1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09
Jan
15		 The Citadel F B+ D+ F F 44% 27% 29% D- F B- F F B- B- F D- C+ A- B- D- D+ 28% 17% 56% C+ D+ A- A- A- C- A F B-
1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15 0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16
Jan
17		 Mercer B+ B+ C A B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ F+ D+ F+ A+ A C A F F C- F F 40% 19% 42% D+ F F F F A- F C+ F
1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25 1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51
Jan
21		 VMI B F B A+ D 43% 28% 30% D+ D D- B- D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F B- F B D 27% 13% 60% C+ D+ D F F F F A+ D+
1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38 1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22
Jan
23		 Furman D+ A+ F F D+ 40% 13% 47% B+ C- F B D C+ A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 15% 49% C+ F A+ F C F A- F C
1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24 1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19
Jan
29		 Mercer C- C F F F 38% 18% 45% C F C A- B- A+ B- C- C+ F C- A- F+ D- 26% 12% 62% D+ D- D+ F F F+ C B C+
1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20 1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 The Citadel F B+ F F F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D+ C+ C- F+ A+ F B C- F C D- F 23% 26% 51% A F+ C+ A+ A+ F D- B D+
0.97 71% 25% 22% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23 1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21
Feb
4		 Western Carolina C+ F B A+ D 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A D B D A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D- F 28% 26% 45% A D- D+ A- B- D F C+ D-
1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44 1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
8		 Furman C F B A+ B 44% 19% 38% B B F+ F F C+ A+ D A B A- D- A A 59% 9% 33% F B+ B- B- B- D D F F+
1.06 33% 44% 56% +3 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24 1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25
Feb
11		 VMI B A+ A+ B- B+ 16% 20% 64% F+ B F C- F+ A- C+ C+ C+ D+ D+ A+ D- F+ 38% 7% 55% F+ F A- D+ B- D+ A+ F A
1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -2 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23 1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.1 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 6.4 1.1 9.5 4th
5th 1.1 11.3 5.4 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 1.4 21.8 16.4 0.9 40.5 6th
7th 8.4 11.2 0.5 20.1 7th
8th 6.7 0.9 7.6 8th
9th 0.6 0.6 9th
10th 10th
Total 17.1 35.0 30.2 14.0 3.4 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 9.7% 9.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-8 14.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.7
9-9 30.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 29.6
8-10 35.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.4 34.6
7-11 17.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.1%