UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 300
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 277
Pace 68.0 199
Improvement +0.3 176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 175 D+ D+ B- B D+
Defense D- 351 D- C- D- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 C- 55% 243 -2.5 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 132 C- 36% 236 +0.9 128
Three Pointers 40% 202 C 33% 211 -0.8 209
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 269 C- -1.7 238
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 253
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 280 C- 1.00 220 D+ 0.27 272
Turnovers B- 15.6% 103
Freethrows A- 0.37 18 D+ 69% 281 B 0.26 55
Total Offense C -0.7 175

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 308 C- 12.0% 248
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 159 D+ 6.8% 293
Three Pointers D- 77% 325 C+ 0.8% 152
Total D 49% 317 C- 6.3% 250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 D 63% 307 -0.1 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 194 C- 40% 248 +0.2 205
Three Pointers 45% 73 F+ 39% 354 +5.1 350
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 138 D- +5.2 351
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 332
Second Chance C- 31.1% 210 D+ 1.10 285 C- 0.34 256
Turnovers D- 13.3% 343
Freethrows B- 0.27 69 C+ 71% 110 B- 0.19 65
Total Defense D- -7.3 351

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 75 D 6.8% 333
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 154 D+ 3.4% 269
Three Pointers B 79% 50 D 0.1% 332
Total C+ 53% 125 D- 3.1% 345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 208 16.8 97
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 311 0.16 156
Improvement +2.3 #83 -2.0 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 61% 100% 47%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 92 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 7% -7  40% 0 - 1 F -20 F -15 D- F F+ C -1 D- D- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 204 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 41% -1  34% 0 - 2 D+ -8 C+ +3 A F C+ F -11 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 24 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 1% -15  6% 0 - 3 F -27 D- -7 F D+ C- F -17 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 154 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 31% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -9 F -15 D- F B B+ +7 B+ C C
 Thu, Nov 20 203 @Queens L 94 - 101 22% -8  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +16 B- B A+ F -23 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 196 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 29% -9  6% 1 - 5 C+ +4 F -11 D F+ F A+ +14 A A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 261 Delaware L 60 - 73 41% -1  37% 1 - 6 F -19 F -13 F F C D- -7 F A C-
 Wed, Nov 26 86 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  54% 1 - 7 C- -4 D -6 F+ A F C+ +2 C+ A D+
 Tue, Dec 2 226 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 33% -0  53% 1 - 8 D -9 B +7 A+ C C- F -16 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 241 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 26% +2  72% 2 - 8 C+ +3 B+ +8 D A+ B- D -5 C- F A
 Tue, Dec 16 290 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 59% -6  3% 2 - 9 F+ -16 F -11 F C- A D -6 C C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 282 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 58% +1  50% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 C+ C F D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 186 Samford W 89 - 82 38% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +16 B- A- A+ F -14 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 230 @Wofford L 85 - 97 25% -11  6% 4 - 10 2 - 1 D- -13 B+ +7 B- B B F -20 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 131 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 12% -10  6% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F -21 F -14 F B- F D -6 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 342 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 76% -4  24% 5 - 11 3 - 2 D- -12 F -12 F F+ B- C +0 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Mercer L 92 - 102 35% -12  1% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F -22 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 358 @VMI W 85 - 78 67% +6  82% 6 - 12 4 - 3 D+ -6 B +7 D D+ A+ F -12 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 179 Furman L 66 - 89 36% -5  4% 6 - 13 4 - 4 F -27 D+ -4 C- D+ C+ F -26 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 175 @Mercer L 77 - 95 17% -14  13% 6 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -16 C- -2 F B- A F -13 D F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 342 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 55% -2  22% 6 - 15 4 - 6 D- -14 F -12 F C- D- C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 253 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 51% +0  34% 7 - 15 5 - 6 D+ -5 C+ +3 D+ B D D- -8 D- B D
 Sun, Feb 8 179 @Furman W 67 - 64 18% +4  79% 8 - 15 6 - 6 C+ +5 C +1 B F C B +4 B+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 358 VMI W 92 - 71 84% +15  90% 9 - 15 7 - 6 C+ +2 B +7 B- F+ A- D+ -4 F B- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 230 Wofford W 99 - 89 45% +12  99% 10 - 15 8 - 6 C+ +3 A+ +17 A+ F A+ F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 253 @Western Carolina L 77 - 91 29% -6  11% 10 - 16 8 - 7 F+ -16 D+ -2 B F D+ F -14 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 72 - 79 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 282 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 @Samford L 74 - 83 20%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -8 C -1 B- C- D+ D- -7 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C- C C- 36% 41% 40% D+ D+ D+ C- D+ B- A- D+ B D- D C- F+ D- 35% 20% 45% C+ D- C- D+ C- D- B- C+ B-
1.08 55% 36% 33% -2 -1 0.97 27% 1.0 .27 16% .37 69% .26 1.19 63% 40% 39% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 13% .27 71% .26
Nov
4		 Kansas St. F D F F+ F 47% 20% 33% B D- F+ F+ F F+ B- F C- C C+ F F F+ 41% 19% 40% C+ D- C- F D- B+ D- A+ B-
0.80 50% 18% 28% -11 +1 0.82 24% 1.0 .24 23% .32 60% .19 1.16 58% 45% 48% +10 0 1.22 34% 1.3 .44 20% .31 55% .17
Nov
8		 Elon C+ D C+ A+ A 30% 19% 51% C- A D+ F F C+ A+ F B+ F B- A+ F C 38% 16% 47% B+ C+ F A+ B+ F F C F
1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25 1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
12		 North Carolina St. D- F C+ F F 26% 21% 54% D- F F+ A- D+ C- A+ D A+ F D+ B F D 38% 15% 48% C D B F F F C C- C-
0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45 1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26
Nov
15		 Austin Peay F C- C- F+ D- 35% 22% 43% D+ D- F F+ F B A F+ B B+ B- A+ A- A- 39% 22% 39% C+ B+ C+ C C C B A+ A-
0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25 0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16
Nov
20		 Queens A+ B A+ D+ C+ 58% 12% 30% A- B- D- A+ B A+ A+ F+ A+ F D+ C- F F 36% 9% 55% D+ F F B D- F F+ F F
1.38 66% 50% 33% +5 +3 1.18 27% 1.6 .42 6% .56 67% .37 1.49 65% 40% 48% +15 +1 1.34 40% 1.0 .40 9% .37 87% .32
Nov
23		 Youngstown St. F A+ B F C 22% 45% 33% F D D- F F+ F B+ F+ C+ A+ B C+ B+ A- 23% 30% 47% A+ A A- A+ A+ D+ A C- A-
0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27 0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13
Nov
25		 Delaware F F+ F B- D- 4% 43% 53% F F F F F C A+ B- A+ D- F D+ F F 14% 38% 48% A+ F C+ A+ A C- A A+ A+
0.94 50% 25% 36% -4 -5 0.83 21% 0.6 .13 14% .40 82% .33 1.14 86% 42% 54% +20 -4 1.34 19% 0.4 .07 17% .15 50% .08
Nov
26		 Miami (OH) D D- C F+ F 33% 22% 46% C- F+ C+ A+ A F A+ C+ A+ C+ F C- B+ B- 33% 9% 58% D+ C+ B- A+ A D+ C+ C- C+
0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35 1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24
Dec
2		 UNC Asheville B A+ C- A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D- A+ D- A C C- A B- A F B- F F F 35% 35% 31% D F C+ F F F D D+ D
1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28 1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 East Carolina B+ C A- F D 35% 31% 35% D D B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D F A A+ C 42% 14% 44% F C- F F F A B+ A A-
1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36 1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18
Dec
16		 N.C. A&T F F D- D F 26% 28% 46% F F B- F+ C- A C F D- D D- A C+ C- 28% 28% 44% B- C F A+ C+ F+ B F C
1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17 1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
1		 Chattanooga C- C A+ F+ C+ 40% 19% 40% C C+ A- F C F A+ D- A+ D+ F F C F 25% 15% 60% C- F B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38 1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09
Jan
3		 Samford A+ F D+ A+ B+ 32% 44% 24% F B- C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ F F A- B D- 31% 14% 55% D+ D- F D- F F D A+ C+
1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35 1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24
Jan
7		 Wofford B+ F+ F A+ B- 44% 19% 37% C- B- C+ A- B B B+ F C F A F D- D+ 39% 14% 46% C D+ F+ F F F F+ C- F+
1.23 48% 30% 53% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 13% .35 67% .23 1.40 45% 50% 38% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.8 .60 6% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 East Tennessee St. F F F D- F 43% 18% 39% C F B C- B- F A+ C+ A+ D F C C F 53% 17% 30% D- F A+ F B+ F A+ C+ A+
0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37 1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09
Jan
15		 The Citadel F B+ D+ F F 44% 27% 29% D- F B- F F+ B- B- F D- C B+ B- D- D 28% 17% 56% C D+ B+ A A- C- A- F B-
1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15 0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16
Jan
17		 Mercer B+ A- C A B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ F D F+ A+ A C- A F F C- F F 40% 19% 42% D+ F F F F A- F C F
1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25 1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51
Jan
21		 VMI B F B- A+ D 43% 28% 30% D+ D D- B- D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F B- F B D 27% 13% 60% C+ D+ D F F F F A+ C-
1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38 1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22
Jan
23		 Furman D+ A+ F F D+ 40% 13% 47% B+ C- F+ A- D+ C+ A C A- F F A+ F F 36% 15% 49% C+ F A+ F C F A F C
1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24 1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19
Jan
29		 Mercer C- C F F F 38% 18% 45% C F C- A- B- A B- D+ C+ F C- A- F+ D 26% 12% 62% D+ D D+ F F F+ C B- C+
1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20 1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 The Citadel F B+ F F F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D+ B- C- D- A+ F B C- F C D- F 23% 26% 51% A F+ C A+ A+ F D- B D+
0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23 1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21
Feb
4		 Western Carolina C+ F B- A+ D 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A D B D A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D- F 28% 26% 45% A D- D+ A B D F B- D-
1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44 1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
8		 Furman C F B A+ B 44% 19% 38% B B F+ F F C A+ D A- B A- D- A- A 59% 9% 33% F B+ B- B- B- D+ D F F+
1.06 33% 44% 56% +3 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24 1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25
Feb
11		 VMI B A+ A+ B- B+ 16% 20% 64% F+ B- F C- F+ A- C C+ C+ D+ D+ A+ D- F+ 38% 7% 55% F+ F B+ D+ B- C- A+ F+ A+
1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23 1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12
Feb
14		 Wofford A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% D A+ F D- F A+ A+ C- A+ F F F B- F 39% 18% 43% C+ F F F+ F C- F B F
1.41 55% 64% 53% +15 0 1.32 21% 1.0 .21 4% .57 76% .43 1.27 70% 56% 32% +6 0 1.16 43% 1.1 .49 14% .47 68% .32
Feb
18		 Western Carolina D+ B A C+ B- 51% 12% 37% A B F+ F F D+ B- F+ C F D+ F+ F F 29% 25% 46% A- F A F F D- F F F
1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24 1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 0.9 2nd
3rd 1.5 1.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.4 7.6 0.2 8.2 4th
5th 0.1 10.9 6.1 17.0 5th
6th 16.8 28.2 1.3 46.2 6th
7th 22.5 2.6 25.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 39.4 42.0 16.4 2.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.1
10-8 16.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.5 15.9
9-9 42.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.9 41.1
8-10 39.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 39.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 17.6%