UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.1 298
Results Rating -6.6 271
Consistency 0.13 77
Pace 68.8 172
Improvement +1.1 145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 182 C- D+ B- B D+
Defense D- 351 D- C- D- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 266 C- 56% 216 -2.3 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 137 C- 37% 219 +1.1 119
Three Pointers 40% 204 C 34% 201 -0.7 208
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 277 C- -1.3 222
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 234
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 291 C- 1.01 216 D+ 0.27 280
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 139
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 90
Turnovers B- 15.6% 104
Freethrows B+ 0.36 22 D+ 69% 272 B 0.25 74
Total Offense C -0.7 182

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 317 D+ 12.3% 263
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 171 D+ 6.6% 283
Three Pointers D 77% 321 C+ 0.7% 147
Total D 48% 322 D+ 6.3% 259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 D 63% 311 -0.3 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 D+ 41% 275 +0.4 222
Three Pointers 45% 71 F+ 39% 359 +5.4 350
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 129 F+ +5.5 353
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 337
Second Chance C 30.5% 189 D+ 1.10 282 C- 0.34 246
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 315
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 346
Turnovers D- 13.4% 343
Freethrows B 0.26 63 C+ 72% 143 B 0.19 65
Total Defense D- -7.4 351

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 63 D- 6.5% 337
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 166 D+ 3.2% 287
Three Pointers B 79% 49 D 0.1% 343
Total C+ 52% 116 D- 3.0% 350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 172 16.6 65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.16 139
Consistency 0.14 295 0.13 263
Improvement +2.5 70 -1.4 260

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 311 299 279
Results Rating Rank 291 275 248
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Samford (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 410 - 812 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 97 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 7% -7  40% 0 - 1 F -20 F -15 F+ F F+ C- -2 D- F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 225 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 44% -1  34% 0 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 A F C+ F -11 C B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 27 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 2% -15  6% 0 - 3 F -28 D- -8 F D+ C- F -18 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 166 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 33% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -9 F -16 D- F B- A- +7 A- C C
 Thu, Nov 20 200 @Queens L 94 - 101 20% -8  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 A+ +16 B- B A+ F -23 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 205 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 30% -9  6% 1 - 5 C+ +4 F -10 D F+ F A+ +13 A A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 268 Delaware L 60 - 73 43% -1  37% 1 - 6 F -19 F -14 F F C D- -7 F A C-
 Wed, Nov 26 86 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 9% +1  54% 1 - 7 C- -4 D -5 F+ A F C+ +1 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 229 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 34% -0  53% 1 - 8 D -9 B +6 A+ C D+ F -16 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 248 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 28% +2  72% 2 - 8 C+ +2 B+ +8 D A+ B- D -5 C- F A
 Tue, Dec 16 276 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 55% -6  3% 2 - 9 F+ -15 F -11 F C- A D+ -5 C+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 1 283 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 57% +1  50% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -5 C- -0 C+ C+ F D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 195 Samford W 89 - 82 38% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +16 C+ A- A+ F -13 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 227 @Wofford L 85 - 97 24% -11  6% 4 - 10 2 - 1 D- -13 B+ +8 C+ B+ B F -21 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 135 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 12% -10  6% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F -21 F -15 F B- F D -6 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 349 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 79% -4  24% 5 - 11 3 - 2 D- -13 F -13 F F B C -0 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Mercer L 92 - 102 36% -12  1% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F -22 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 359 @VMI W 85 - 78 70% +6  82% 6 - 12 4 - 3 D+ -6 B +7 D D+ A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 172 Furman L 66 - 89 34% -5  4% 6 - 13 4 - 4 F -27 D+ -4 C- D+ C F -26 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 183 @Mercer L 77 - 95 18% -14  13% 6 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -3 F B- A F -13 D F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 349 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 59% -2  22% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -15 F -12 F C- D- D+ -3 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 242 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 49% +0  34% 7 - 15 5 - 6 C- -5 C+ +3 D+ B+ D- D- -8 D- B D
 Sun, Feb 8 172 @Furman W 67 - 64 17% +4  79% 8 - 15 6 - 6 B- +5 C +1 B F C B +4 B B D+
 Wed, Feb 11 359 VMI W 92 - 71 85% +15  90% 9 - 15 7 - 6 C +2 B +7 B D- A- D -5 F B- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 227 Wofford W 99 - 89 45% +12  99% 10 - 15 8 - 6 C+ +3 A+ +17 A+ F A+ F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 242 @Western Carolina L 77 - 91 27% -6  11% 10 - 16 8 - 7 F+ -16 C- -2 B F D+ F -14 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 135 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 87 26% -4  23% 10 - 17 8 - 8 D- -13 C+ +2 A- B C- F -16 F D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 283 @Chattanooga W 85 - 80 34% +7  98% 11 - 17 9 - 8 C +1 C- -0 C- F C+ C+ +1 C- C D
 Sat, Feb 28 195 @Samford L 74 - 83 20%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -8 C -1 B- C- D+ D- -7 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C- C C- 36% 41% 40% D+ C- D+ C- D+ B- B+ D+ B D- D D+ F+ F+ 35% 20% 45% C+ D- C D+ C- D- B C+ B
1.08 56% 37% 34% -1 -1 0.98 26% 1.0 .27 16% .36 69% .25 1.19 63% 41% 39% +6 0 1.13 31% 1.1 .34 13% .26 72% .26
Nov
4		 Kansas St. F D F F+ F 47% 20% 33% B- F+ F+ F+ F F+ B- F D+ C- C+ F F F+ 41% 19% 40% C+ D- C- F F+ A- D- A+ B-
0.80 50% 18% 28% -11 +1 0.82 24% 1.0 .24 23% .32 60% .19 1.16 58% 45% 48% +10 0 1.22 34% 1.3 .44 20% .31 55% .17
Nov
8		 Elon C+ D- C+ A+ A 30% 19% 51% C- A D+ F F C+ A+ F B+ F B- A+ F C- 38% 16% 47% B+ C F A+ B+ F F C+ F
1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25 1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
12		 North Carolina St. D- F C+ F F 26% 21% 54% D- F D- B+ D+ C- A+ D- A+ F D+ B- F D- 38% 15% 48% C+ D B F F F C C- C-
0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45 1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26
Nov
15		 Austin Peay F C- C- F+ D- 35% 22% 43% D+ D- F F+ F B- A F B A- B- A+ A- A- 39% 22% 39% B- A- C+ C- C C B A+ A
0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 0 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25 0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16
Nov
20		 Queens A+ B A D+ C+ 58% 12% 30% A B- D- A+ B A+ A+ F+ A+ F D+ C- F F 36% 9% 55% D F F B D- F D- F F
1.38 66% 50% 33% +5 +3 1.18 27% 1.6 .42 6% .56 67% .37 1.49 65% 40% 48% +15 +1 1.34 40% 1.0 .40 9% .37 87% .32
Nov
23		 Youngstown St. F A+ B F C 22% 45% 33% F D D- F F+ F B+ F+ B- A+ B C+ B+ A- 23% 30% 47% A+ A A- A+ A+ D+ A C- A-
0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27 0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13
Nov
25		 Delaware F F+ F B- D- 4% 43% 53% F F F F F C A+ C+ A+ D- F D+ F F 14% 38% 48% A+ F C+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 50% 25% 36% -4 -5 0.83 21% 0.6 .13 14% .40 82% .33 1.14 86% 42% 54% +20 -4 1.34 19% 0.4 .07 17% .15 50% .08
Nov
26		 Miami (OH) D D C+ F+ F+ 33% 22% 46% C- F+ C+ A+ A F A+ C+ A+ C+ F C- B C+ 33% 9% 58% D C+ B A+ A+ C- C+ D+ C
0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35 1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24
Dec
2		 UNC Asheville B A+ C A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D- A+ D- A C D+ A B- A F B- F F F 35% 35% 31% D+ F B- F F F D- D+ D-
1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28 1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 East Carolina B+ C A- F D 35% 31% 35% D D B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D F A A+ C 42% 14% 44% F C- F F F A B+ A A
1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36 1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18
Dec
16		 N.C. A&T F F D- D F 26% 28% 46% F+ F B- F C- A C+ F D- D+ D- A C+ C 28% 28% 44% B- C+ F A+ C+ D- B- F C
1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17 1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
1		 Chattanooga C- C A+ F+ C+ 40% 19% 40% C C+ A F C+ F A+ D A+ D+ F F C F 25% 15% 60% C- F B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38 1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09
Jan
3		 Samford A+ F D+ A+ B 32% 44% 24% F C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ F F A- B D- 31% 14% 55% D+ D- F D F F D A+ C+
1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35 1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24
Jan
7		 Wofford B+ F+ F A+ B- 44% 19% 37% C- C+ C+ A B+ B B+ F C F A F F+ D+ 39% 14% 46% C D+ F+ F F F F+ C- F+
1.23 48% 30% 53% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 13% .35 67% .23 1.40 45% 50% 38% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.8 .60 6% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 East Tennessee St. F F F D- F 43% 18% 39% C F B D+ B- F A+ C+ A+ D F C C F 53% 17% 30% D- F A+ F B+ F A+ C+ A+
0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37 1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09
Jan
15		 The Citadel F B+ D+ F F 44% 27% 29% D- F B- F F B B- F F+ C B+ B- D- D 28% 17% 56% C+ D+ B+ A A- C- A- F B-
1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15 0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16
Jan
17		 Mercer B+ A- C A B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ F D F+ A+ A D+ A- F F C F F 40% 19% 42% D+ F F F F A- F C F
1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25 1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51
Jan
21		 VMI B F B A+ D 43% 28% 30% D+ D D C+ D+ A+ A+ D A+ F B- F B D 27% 13% 60% C+ D+ D F F F F A+ D+
1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38 1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22
Jan
23		 Furman D+ A+ F F D+ 40% 13% 47% B+ C- F+ A- D+ C A C+ A F F A+ F F 36% 15% 49% C+ F A+ F C+ F A F C+
1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24 1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19
Jan
29		 Mercer D+ C F F F 38% 18% 45% C+ F C- B+ B- A C+ D C F C A- F+ D 26% 12% 62% D+ D D+ F F F+ C+ B- C+
1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20 1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 The Citadel F A- F F F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D B- C- D- A+ F B D+ F C D- F 23% 26% 51% A F+ C A+ A+ F D- C+ D
0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23 1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21
Feb
4		 Western Carolina C+ F B- A+ D 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A+ D B+ D- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D- F 28% 26% 45% A D- D A B D F B+ D
1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44 1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
8		 Furman C F B A+ B 44% 19% 38% B- B F+ F F C A+ D+ A B A- F+ A A 59% 9% 33% F B B- B- B D+ D F F+
1.06 33% 44% 56% +2 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24 1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25
Feb
11		 VMI B A+ A+ B- B+ 16% 20% 64% D- B F+ C- D- A- C+ C C+ D D+ A+ D- F+ 38% 7% 55% F+ F B+ D B- C- A+ F+ A+
1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23 1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12
Feb
14		 Wofford A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% D A+ F+ D- F A+ A+ C- A+ F F F B- F 39% 18% 43% B- F F D- F C- F B F
1.41 55% 64% 53% +15 0 1.32 21% 1.0 .21 4% .57 76% .43 1.27 70% 56% 32% +6 0 1.16 43% 1.1 .49 14% .47 68% .32
Feb
18		 Western Carolina C- B A C+ B- 51% 12% 37% A B F+ F F D+ B- D- C F D+ D- F F 29% 25% 46% A- F A F F D- F+ F+ F
1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24 1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28
Feb
21		 East Tennessee St. C+ A+ C- B A 33% 26% 41% F+ A- C- A+ B C- C- F D F F F F F 36% 24% 40% B+ F B- F D+ B- A- F B-
1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19 1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22
Feb
26		 Chattanooga C- D B B- C 36% 21% 43% C- C- F D- F C+ B- A B+ C+ B- F C+ C- 22% 19% 59% B- C- C+ C- C D C D+ C
1.11 52% 42% 36% 0 0 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 80% .30 1.04 54% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 13% .27 78% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 4.6 4.6 3rd
4th 10.1 10.1 4th
5th 5.1 5.1 5th
6th 43.0 43.0 6th
7th 37.3 37.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 80.3 19.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 19.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 19.3
9-9 80.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 1.3 79.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8%
Lose Out 40.0%