UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#174
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#142
Pace60.4#344
Improvement+1.6#67

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#229
First Shot-0.5#200
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks-4.0#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement+1.3#70

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#123
First Shot-0.4#181
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#65
Layups/Dunks+4.5#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows+2.0#72
Improvement+0.3#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 10.0% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.0 14.0
.500 or above 69.2% 89.9% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 74.0% 58.1%
Conference Champion 6.1% 11.8% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 1.7% 5.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round6.2% 9.9% 6.1%
Second Round0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 284   N.C. A&T W 57-53 81%     1 - 0 -5.5 -15.2 +9.9
  Nov 12, 2021 232   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 OT 51%     2 - 0 +0.4 -5.2 +5.7
  Nov 15, 2021 306   Coppin St. W 55-48 85%     3 - 0 -4.2 -22.0 +17.8
  Nov 18, 2021 312   Green Bay W 60-58 79%     4 - 0 -6.8 -2.7 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 90-93 OT 36%     4 - 1 +0.3 +7.7 -7.3
  Nov 21, 2021 215   Florida International L 71-74 OT 57%     4 - 2 -5.0 -0.5 -4.5
  Nov 27, 2021 103   Vermont W 54-51 43%     5 - 2 +4.5 -3.8 +9.1
  Nov 30, 2021 289   Elon W 74-61 82%     6 - 2 +3.0 -5.2 +8.3
  Dec 11, 2021 13   @ Tennessee L 54-73 4%    
  Dec 14, 2021 144   @ Towson L 60-65 32%    
  Dec 16, 2021 201   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 29, 2021 296   @ Western Carolina W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 01, 2022 124   Wofford L 63-64 49%    
  Jan 05, 2022 110   Furman L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 227   @ VMI L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 13, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 177   @ Mercer L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 88   Chattanooga L 59-62 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 243   Samford W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 124   @ Wofford L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 227   VMI W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 110   @ Furman L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 10, 2022 238   The Citadel W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 177   Mercer W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 17, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 56-65 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 243   @ Samford W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 27, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. W 62-61 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 3.7 1.1 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.3 4.1 0.9 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 6.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.1 7.8 10.8 13.1 13.9 13.7 11.4 8.4 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.1% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 85.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.1% 2.0    1.0 0.8 0.2
13-5 26.7% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 49.0% 47.1% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7%
16-2 0.5% 32.9% 32.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.5% 25.7% 25.3% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.5%
14-4 3.4% 18.4% 18.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.8
13-5 5.8% 16.1% 16.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.9
12-6 8.4% 12.7% 12.7% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 7.3
11-7 11.4% 8.6% 8.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.4
10-8 13.7% 6.0% 6.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.8
9-9 13.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.3
8-10 13.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.7
7-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
6-12 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
5-13 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 0.5 93.7 0.0%