Vermont
America East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#157
Pace63.8#297
Improvement+1.3#42

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot+2.3#96
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#318
Layup/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#48
Freethrows-1.2#274
Improvement+0.6#77

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#37
Layups/Dunks-3.6#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#136
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement+0.7#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.3% 43.6% 36.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 97.0% 98.6% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 86.0% 89.9% 70.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 1.3%
First Round42.1% 43.5% 36.3%
Second Round3.3% 3.6% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 79.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 207   Brown W 80-65 71%     1 - 0 +10.5 +5.8 +4.3
  Nov 10, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 53-79 7%     1 - 1 -8.3 -2.8 -8.0
  Nov 13, 2022 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 85-94 2OT 42%     1 - 2 -5.7 +1.0 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2022 44   @ USC L 57-59 13%     1 - 3 +11.2 -7.4 +18.6
  Nov 18, 2022 85   Iona L 50-71 33%     1 - 4 -15.1 -14.7 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2022 92   @ Yale L 44-73 26%     1 - 5 -20.9 -19.7 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2022 155   Ball St. W 78-73 53%     2 - 5 +5.6 +8.9 -3.0
  Nov 26, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington L 66-68 52%     2 - 6 -1.3 -0.4 -1.1
  Nov 27, 2022 165   Long Beach St. L 58-78 54%     2 - 7 -19.8 -16.3 -3.0
  Dec 04, 2022 337   @ Merrimack W 66-43 81%     3 - 7 +15.0 +2.6 +15.0
  Dec 06, 2022 275   @ Dartmouth W 68-52 66%     4 - 7 +12.9 +3.0 +11.6
  Dec 10, 2022 118   @ Colgate W 73-72 34%     5 - 7 +6.4 +6.2 +0.3
  Dec 20, 2022 104   Toledo L 72-84 49%     5 - 8 -10.6 -5.7 -4.9
  Jan 01, 2023 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-61 53%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +13.4 +5.0 +9.9
  Jan 05, 2023 195   Bryant W 74-64 70%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +5.9 -5.8 +11.4
  Jan 08, 2023 272   @ New Hampshire L 60-67 66%     7 - 9 2 - 1 -10.0 -7.2 -3.5
  Jan 11, 2023 177   @ Umass Lowell L 65-80 45%     7 - 10 2 - 2 -12.5 -1.9 -11.6
  Jan 19, 2023 288   Maine W 66-45 84%     8 - 10 3 - 2 +11.5 -1.7 +16.3
  Jan 22, 2023 320   NJIT W 85-69 88%     9 - 10 4 - 2 +4.3 +14.1 -8.6
  Jan 25, 2023 324   @ Binghamton W 80-55 77%     10 - 10 5 - 2 +18.5 +13.7 +7.9
  Jan 28, 2023 217   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-68 73%     11 - 10 6 - 2 +1.0 +0.8 +0.7
  Feb 04, 2023 336   @ Albany W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 08, 2023 288   @ Maine W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 177   Umass Lowell W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 15, 2023 272   New Hampshire W 68-58 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 320   @ NJIT W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 22, 2023 324   Binghamton W 73-60 90%    
  Feb 25, 2023 195   @ Bryant L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 28, 2023 336   Albany W 75-60 92%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.9 15.9 30.5 27.3 10.4 86.0 1st
2nd 0.2 4.7 4.2 0.1 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 8.7 20.1 30.6 27.3 10.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 10.4    10.4
13-3 100.0% 27.3    27.3 0.0
12-4 99.7% 30.5    25.5 5.0 0.0
11-5 79.0% 15.9    5.4 7.9 2.4 0.1
10-6 22.1% 1.9    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 86.0% 86.0 68.6 13.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 10.4% 56.8% 56.8% 13.3 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.1 0.1 4.5
13-3 27.3% 48.9% 48.9% 13.9 0.1 3.5 7.9 1.8 0.0 13.9
12-4 30.6% 41.7% 41.7% 14.3 0.0 0.9 7.0 4.8 0.1 17.8
11-5 20.1% 35.2% 35.2% 14.8 0.1 1.7 5.0 0.3 13.0
10-6 8.7% 28.6% 28.6% 15.3 0.0 1.7 0.7 6.2
9-7 2.5% 24.7% 24.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8
8-8 0.5% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.1 0.4
7-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 42.3% 42.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.8 7.5 18.9 13.4 1.7 57.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 56.8% 13.3 0.1 5.8 29.7 20.4 0.7