Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#183
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#221
Pace60.5#352
Improvement+1.5#85

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#258
First Shot-1.3#213
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#288
Layup/Dunks-3.7#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#40
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+1.5#70

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#106
First Shot+0.9#143
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#103
Layups/Dunks-1.5#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement-0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 24.7% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 78.7% 90.6% 75.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 92.3% 87.7%
Conference Champion 26.2% 33.0% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four2.1% 1.3% 2.4%
First Round18.7% 24.2% 17.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 6
Quad 414 - 718 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 124   @ UAB W 67-62 27%     1 - 0 +10.2 +0.7 +10.1
  Nov 06, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 43-94 2%     1 - 1 -27.6 -22.1 -5.7
  Nov 09, 2024 222   @ Merrimack L 51-65 47%     1 - 2 -14.3 -12.3 -3.3
  Nov 15, 2024 274   @ Iona L 59-62 58%     1 - 3 -6.2 -10.8 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 331   Buffalo W 78-67 86%     2 - 3 -1.8 +4.1 -5.0
  Nov 23, 2024 213   Delaware W 75-71 55%     3 - 3 +1.5 +0.4 +1.2
  Nov 24, 2024 283   Fairfield L 66-67 70%     3 - 4 -7.4 -2.9 -4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 152   Northeastern W 68-64 56%     4 - 4 +1.5 -2.3 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2024 164   Brown L 53-60 60%     4 - 5 -10.6 -9.9 -2.3
  Dec 07, 2024 107   @ Yale L 64-72 22%    
  Dec 15, 2024 246   @ Colgate W 63-62 52%    
  Dec 18, 2024 198   Miami (OH) W 66-62 63%    
  Dec 21, 2024 319   @ Dartmouth W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 350   @ New Hampshire W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 154   @ Umass Lowell L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 176   @ Bryant L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 322   Binghamton W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 347   NJIT W 69-55 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 322   @ Binghamton W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 211   Maine W 63-59 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 237   @ Albany L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 350   New Hampshire W 71-56 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 211   @ Maine L 60-62 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 176   Bryant W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 154   Umass Lowell W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 347   @ NJIT W 66-58 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 296   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 237   Albany W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.6 8.6 5.6 2.5 0.5 26.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.5 7.1 2.4 0.2 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.1 5.1 1.0 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.2 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.3 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.7 9.4 13.0 15.7 16.2 14.7 11.0 5.8 2.5 0.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
14-2 96.4% 5.6    4.9 0.7
13-3 78.5% 8.6    5.6 2.8 0.2
12-4 44.8% 6.6    2.6 3.0 1.0 0.1
11-5 13.2% 2.1    0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 26.2% 26.2 16.4 7.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 52.5% 52.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.5% 44.5% 44.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.4
14-2 5.8% 38.0% 38.0% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.6
13-3 11.0% 32.3% 32.3% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.2 7.5
12-4 14.7% 27.0% 27.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.6 10.7
11-5 16.2% 20.7% 20.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.0 12.8
10-6 15.7% 14.9% 14.9% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.3 13.4
9-7 13.0% 11.6% 11.6% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 11.5
8-8 9.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 8.5
7-9 5.7% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.3
6-10 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-11 1.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 1.6
4-12 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.7 7.3 5.4 80.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.7 34.8 56.5 8.7