Vermont
America East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#104
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#119
Pace65.2#279
Improvement-1.4#290

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#199
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#187
Layup/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#231
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-0.1#193

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#53
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#34
Layups/Dunks+1.6#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows+2.8#32
Improvement-1.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 43.9% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 97.8% 98.6% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.0% 97.8%
Conference Champion 61.7% 63.3% 52.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round42.6% 43.7% 36.1%
Second Round6.6% 7.0% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 416 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 112   @ Northern Iowa W 71-57 41%     1 - 0 +20.6 -1.0 +21.4
  Nov 13, 2021 51   @ Maryland L 57-68 24%     1 - 1 +0.7 -3.9 +3.7
  Nov 19, 2021 124   Yale W 61-53 67%     2 - 1 +7.7 -7.9 +16.2
  Nov 22, 2021 122   Oakland L 61-63 56%     2 - 2 +0.8 -7.4 +8.2
  Nov 23, 2021 245   Evansville W 58-49 79%     3 - 2 +4.8 -12.1 +17.5
  Nov 24, 2021 172   Appalachian St. W 65-63 67%     4 - 2 +1.8 +4.7 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 173   @ UNC Greensboro L 51-54 56%     4 - 3 -0.4 -7.4 +6.4
  Dec 01, 2021 232   Dartmouth W 66-55 85%    
  Dec 07, 2021 54   @ Providence L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 10, 2021 216   @ Brown W 64-60 64%    
  Dec 19, 2021 149   @ Northeastern W 61-60 51%    
  Dec 22, 2021 113   Colgate W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 02, 2022 297   Albany W 71-56 90%    
  Jan 05, 2022 195   New Hampshire W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 265   @ Hartford W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 12, 2022 219   Stony Brook W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 210   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 19, 2022 256   @ NJIT W 65-59 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 265   Hartford W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 26, 2022 219   @ Stony Brook W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 352   Maine W 70-47 98%    
  Feb 02, 2022 256   NJIT W 68-56 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 207   @ Umass Lowell W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 322   Binghamton W 72-56 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 297   @ Albany W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 16, 2022 195   @ New Hampshire W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 210   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 23, 2022 322   @ Binghamton W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 26, 2022 207   Umass Lowell W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 01, 2022 352   @ Maine W 67-50 93%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 11.3 15.3 15.6 10.8 3.5 61.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.8 5.6 2.2 0.3 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 6.3 9.3 13.0 17.2 17.6 16.0 10.8 3.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
17-1 100.0% 10.8    10.7 0.2
16-2 98.1% 15.6    14.6 1.1 0.0
15-3 87.3% 15.3    11.9 3.3 0.1
14-4 65.8% 11.3    6.7 3.9 0.7 0.0
13-5 32.1% 4.2    1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1
12-6 8.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 61.7% 61.7 48.8 10.7 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.5% 71.1% 68.6% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.0 8.1%
17-1 10.8% 63.9% 63.3% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 3.9 1.8%
16-2 16.0% 55.5% 55.5% 13.2 0.1 1.8 3.8 2.7 0.6 7.1
15-3 17.6% 45.4% 45.4% 13.6 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 9.6
14-4 17.2% 41.7% 41.7% 14.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.7 0.2 10.0
13-5 13.0% 33.4% 33.4% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.2 8.6
12-6 9.3% 28.2% 28.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 6.7
11-7 6.3% 22.6% 22.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 4.9
10-8 3.2% 18.4% 18.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6
9-9 1.9% 11.5% 11.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7
8-10 0.9% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
7-11 0.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.7% 42.6% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 5.8 12.1 13.2 8.1 1.8 57.3 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 7.3 2.0 8.2 10.2 26.5 12.2 10.2 14.3 4.1 6.1 6.1