VMI
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#335
Expected Predictive Rating-14.6#351
Pace68.9#161
Improvement+0.2#162

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#276
First Shot-1.9#250
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#278
Layup/Dunks-3.7#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#22
Freethrows-3.2#357
Improvement-1.0#321

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#351
First Shot-5.8#338
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#307
Layups/Dunks+1.3#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#358
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement+1.3#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.6% 98.7% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 111 - 14
Quad 43 - 104 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 125   @ Richmond L 48-69 8%     0 - 1 -15.9 -18.5 +1.6
  Nov 13, 2022 123   @ Davidson L 71-75 8%     0 - 2 +1.4 +2.9 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2022 181   @ Longwood L 58-90 12%     0 - 3 -29.7 -11.6 -18.9
  Nov 19, 2022 238   SIU Edwardsville L 67-93 26%     0 - 4 -29.9 -9.4 -18.9
  Nov 20, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson L 89-93 40%     0 - 5 -12.0 +4.4 -16.2
  Nov 29, 2022 330   @ Presbyterian L 57-72 38%     0 - 6 -22.3 -18.3 -4.2
  Dec 03, 2022 212   Navy W 80-72 29%     1 - 6 +3.2 +11.5 -7.7
  Dec 10, 2022 178   Radford W 77-74 24%     2 - 6 +0.0 +5.4 -5.4
  Dec 13, 2022 236   @ American L 61-69 19%     2 - 7 -9.1 -1.3 -9.3
  Dec 22, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 77-80 OT 9%     2 - 8 +1.7 -2.8 +5.0
  Dec 29, 2022 87   @ Furman L 62-85 5%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -14.5 -10.3 -3.9
  Dec 31, 2022 223   East Tennessee St. L 50-64 32%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -19.7 -19.6 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2023 145   @ Samford L 78-87 9%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -4.9 +7.9 -13.3
  Jan 07, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 11%     2 - 12 0 - 4 -4.1 +6.4 -10.8
  Jan 11, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro L 57-72 19%     2 - 13 0 - 5 -16.0 -5.3 -12.4
  Jan 14, 2023 215   @ Wofford L 67-86 15%     2 - 14 0 - 6 -18.5 -1.9 -18.6
  Jan 19, 2023 228   Mercer L 61-69 33%     2 - 15 0 - 7 -13.9 -10.0 -4.5
  Jan 21, 2023 301   The Citadel L 52-60 50%     2 - 16 0 - 8 -18.5 -20.1 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 50-62 9%     2 - 17 0 - 9 -7.6 -12.7 +4.3
  Jan 28, 2023 260   Western Carolina L 65-71 41%     2 - 18 0 - 10 -14.1 -12.2 -2.0
  Feb 02, 2023 301   @ The Citadel L 71-76 30%    
  Feb 04, 2023 228   @ Mercer L 65-75 17%    
  Feb 08, 2023 87   Furman L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 10, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-75 16%    
  Feb 15, 2023 164   Chattanooga L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 18, 2023 145   Samford L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 22, 2023 215   Wofford L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 25, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina L 70-78 22%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 2 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 16.6 30.8 28.2 16.2 5.4 0.7 0.0 97.9 10th
Total 16.6 30.8 28.2 16.2 6.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
2-16 28.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.2
1-17 30.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.8
0-18 16.6% 16.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.6%