VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -15.9 358
Expected Predictive Rating -16.3 356
Pace 68.3 192
Improvement -3.7 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 323 D- D- C C- C+
Defense F 363 F F+ C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 F+ 49% 354 -7.0 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 316 D+ 34% 295 -3.0 320
Three Pointers 55% 4 D- 29% 334 +3.3 72
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 F+ -6.8 356
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 350
Second Chance D 25.6% 312 D- 0.91 329 D- 0.23 335
Turnovers C 16.9% 182
Freethrows C- 0.29 242 C- 71% 231 C- 0.20 246
Total Offense D -6.2 323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 281 F+ 67% 355 +1.2 218
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 250 F 46% 355 +0.6 239
Three Pointers 46% 36 F+ 39% 349 +6.2 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 F +7.6 364
1st FG Attempt F 1.18 362
Second Chance F 39.6% 364 C 1.03 175 F+ 0.41 351
Turnovers C 16.7% 192
Freethrows C 0.31 202 C 72% 188 C 0.22 198
Total Defense F -9.7 363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 331 15.9 12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 337 0.22 332
Improvement -1.8 #286 -1.9 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 90 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 342 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 26% -3  9% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 F D- B+ C+ +1 C- C- D-
 Sun, Nov 9 54 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  18% 1 - 1 F -24 D- -8 B- F F F -14 B- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 312 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 35% -3  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 F+ -9 F A F D+ -5 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 131 @Richmond L 54 - 87 4% -21  0% 1 - 3 F -28 F -17 D- D+ F F -13 F D C
 Sat, Nov 22 327 @Stetson L 80 - 99 21% -9  2% 1 - 4 F -27 B- +5 D D+ A+ F -32 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 201 Buffalo L 70 - 78 11% -1  38% 1 - 5 D -10 D -6 F A- A+ D -5 C- D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 155 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 8% -22  0% 1 - 6 F -33 F -23 F F D F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 55 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  27% 1 - 7 D- -12 F -13 F C- D+ C +0 A- A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 310 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 34% +15  99% 2 - 7 C+ +4 A +14 A- C A+ D- -8 C F C
 Sun, Dec 21 228 @Radford L 90 - 97 9% -2  30% 2 - 8 D+ -8 B+ +9 C A+ C- F -17 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 187 Samford L 58 - 78 15% -4  47% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -25 F -19 F F D+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 30% +8  98% 3 - 9 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -1 B- F+ D- C -1 B+ D- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 141 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 4% -10  1% 3 - 10 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 F+ F A+ D- -8 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 174 @Furman L 48 - 69 6% -10  12% 3 - 11 1 - 3 F -19 F -22 F C- F B- +2 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 165 Mercer L 67 - 77 12% -2  22% 3 - 12 1 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 B- F C- D- -7 B+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 347 The Citadel L 68 - 82 49% -10  4% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -13 F+ F D+ F -17 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 296 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 30% -6  13% 3 - 14 1 - 6 F+ -18 C- -1 F A B+ F -17 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 261 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 11% -12  13% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F -33 F+ -9 F D- B- F -29 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 347 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 28% -12  7% 3 - 16 1 - 8 F -34 F -18 F F D- F -19 F A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Mercer L 81 - 95 5% -4  12% 3 - 17 1 - 9 D- -11 C+ +3 C+ F+ B+ F -14 D- F D
 Wed, Feb 4 223 Wofford L 67 - 81 19% -12  4% 3 - 18 1 - 10 F -20 F -12 D F A- F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 141 East Tennessee St. L 70 - 87 10% -10  5% 3 - 19 1 - 11 F -19 D- -7 D+ C- B F -12 F F A+
 Wed, Feb 11 296 @UNC Greensboro L 71 - 92 15% -15  1% 3 - 20 1 - 12 F -26 F+ -9 D F D- F -17 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 174 Furman L 72 - 90 13% -12  0% 3 - 21 1 - 13 F -22 D -5 C- F A F -16 F F D
 Wed, Feb 18 223 @Wofford L 71 - 86 7%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Western Carolina L 76 - 83 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 187 @Samford L 68 - 85 5%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @Chattanooga L 69 - 80 14%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -16 D -6 F F+ C+ F -10 D- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ D+ D- F+ 31% 25% 55% C+ D- D D- D- C C- C- C- F F+ F F+ F 35% 18% 46% C F F C F+ C C C C
1.00 49% 34% 29% -7 0 0.89 26% 0.9 .23 17% .29 71% .20 1.23 67% 46% 39% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.0 .41 17% .31 72% .21
Nov
7		 Southern Indiana D- F C+ D- F 41% 14% 46% C+ F D- D D- B+ C F+ D+ C+ F+ D- A+ C- 33% 20% 48% C- C- D+ C C- D- B+ F C
1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22 0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19
Nov
9		 Missouri D- F A- B B 6% 17% 77% D+ B- F F F F B+ C B+ F F+ C- A+ B 49% 16% 35% D+ B- F F F D- F D F
0.90 0% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.3 .05 22% .34 75% .26 1.40 72% 38% 22% +1 +1 1.06 50% 1.8 .88 15% .54 71% .39
Nov
15		 Jacksonville F+ F B- C F+ 35% 24% 41% D F C A+ A F F A+ F D+ F B C- F 40% 13% 47% D- F F F F A+ A- A+ A+
1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17 1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11
Nov
19		 Richmond F D+ A+ F F+ 26% 9% 65% A- D- D B- D+ F A+ F C- F C- F F F 30% 26% 44% C- F D- C D C A A+ A+
0.82 55% 50% 25% -8 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20 1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16
Nov
22		 Stetson B- C- D+ C- D 36% 15% 49% C+ D C- D D+ A+ D+ F+ D F F F F F 17% 13% 70% C F F F F D- A+ B- A+
1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17 1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11
Nov
24		 Buffalo D D+ B F F 30% 17% 53% D+ F B- A A- A+ A- D B+ D B+ F F+ C+ 45% 5% 50% F C- D D+ D B- F C- F
1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24 1.17 50% 50% 40% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51
Nov
26		 Bowling Green F F F F F 40% 5% 56% A- F C+ F F D A+ A- A+ F F F F+ F 42% 17% 42% B- F F B F A+ C+ C C+
0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47 1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22
Nov
29		 Central Florida F F F F F 27% 12% 61% C+ F A F C- D+ A C- A- C F A+ A+ A 36% 24% 41% B- A- F A+ A D- C+ F C-
0.84 38% 17% 27% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27 1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
9		 Loyola Maryland A C A+ A A- 35% 13% 52% B- A- C C C A+ C- D- D+ D- A+ F D+ C 47% 16% 38% D+ C F D- F C F A+ D-
1.37 61% 71% 41% +11 +1 1.25 32% 1.2 .39 8% .28 69% .19 1.12 43% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .45 18% .44 52% .23
Dec
21		 Radford B+ C- B+ B C+ 38% 19% 44% D+ C C- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F 39% 11% 50% D F F F F B- F F F
1.23 56% 44% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.9 .57 19% .47 89% .42 1.33 65% 60% 45% +14 +1 1.32 40% 1.3 .52 19% .68 80% .54
Jan
1		 Samford F A- D F F 17% 31% 52% F+ F D+ F F D+ F C F D- F A+ F F 31% 25% 44% B F D+ A+ A+ D+ F A D+
0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16 1.16 93% 17% 43% +12 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27
Jan
3		 Chattanooga C- A+ B- C- B- 24% 11% 65% C B- C F F+ D- A+ C- A+ C D A- A+ B+ 33% 27% 41% B B+ C- F D- B- F F F
1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36 1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35
Jan
7		 East Tennessee St. D+ D+ A- F F+ 42% 13% 44% C+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ F A- D- F F D- F 43% 23% 34% B- F A- F C- C- C- D+ D+
1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28 1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27
Jan
10		 Furman F F F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C D+ C- F C+ D C B- C+ D- C+ C+ 24% 15% 61% B+ C+ F C- F A+ F A+ D
0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18 1.05 60% 50% 32% 0 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22
Jan
15		 Mercer D- C+ D- A- B- 23% 17% 60% D+ B- D+ F F C- F C F D- F D+ A+ A 47% 11% 42% F B+ F C- F A F C F
1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06 1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35
Jan
17		 The Citadel F F+ F C F 47% 2% 51% A F+ F C- F D+ A+ D- A+ F B F F F 47% 9% 44% F F D- A+ A- C+ F F F
1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32 1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49
Jan
21		 UNC Greensboro C- F+ A+ F F 27% 13% 60% C+ F C- A+ A B+ A+ F B F A F F F+ 43% 28% 30% C D- F+ D+ F+ F F C F
1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22 1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38
Jan
24		 Western Carolina F+ C+ F C- F 27% 14% 59% C F F A+ D- B- F A F F D+ F F F 41% 11% 48% F+ F F D- F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10 1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02
Jan
29		 The Citadel F F F D F 36% 14% 50% C- F F F F D- F A+ D- F F A- F F 13% 15% 73% B+ F F A+ A- F+ C- A+ A-
0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15 1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
31		 Mercer C+ C D- C+ C 25% 5% 69% B- C+ F C+ F+ B+ C A- B- F D F A- D 38% 9% 53% F D- F F F D F C- F
1.11 57% 33% 37% +3 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21 1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Wofford F C- D- C- D 42% 17% 40% C- D F F F A- C+ D C F+ F A F F 27% 22% 51% A F A- A+ A+ D- F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 21% 0.4 .08 12% .32 74% .23 1.20 79% 27% 42% +10 -1 1.20 22% 0.5 .11 12% .40 75% .30
Feb
7		 East Tennessee St. D- F A+ C- D 39% 6% 56% B+ D+ F A+ C- B D+ D- D F C- F F F 20% 31% 49% A+ F F D- F A+ B+ F B-
0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19 1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22
Feb
11		 UNC Greensboro F+ D+ F C+ F+ 38% 7% 55% A- D F D+ F D- F A F F F F D F 16% 20% 64% B F D C D+ D B+ D B-
1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12 1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -2 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23
Feb
14		 Furman D F A B- D 28% 4% 69% A- C- F F F A A- A+ A+ F F F D F 26% 8% 66% C+ F C F F D D- F F
1.01 33% 50% 35% -5 +1 0.94 21% 0.6 .12 10% .31 85% .27 1.27 85% 100% 36% +14 +1 1.32 30% 1.3 .40 17% .34 75% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 58.0 33.7 7.6 0.6 0.0 99.9 10th
Total 58.0 33.7 7.6 0.7 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 7.6% 7.6
2-16 33.7% 33.7
1-17 58.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 58.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 47.3%