VMI
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#227
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#256
Pace67.7#221
Improvement+2.4#38

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#128
First Shot+0.8#165
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#138
Layup/Dunks-4.4#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#12
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+2.0#34

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#313
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#290
Layups/Dunks+3.6#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#321
Freethrows+1.8#89
Improvement+0.4#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.9% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 20.9% 28.2% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 35.5% 25.4%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 12.4% 19.3%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round2.2% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 47 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 276   @ Presbyterian L 72-73 OT 50%     0 - 1 -4.2 +0.7 -5.0
  Nov 20, 2021 241   @ Marist L 74-78 OT 42%     0 - 2 -5.3 -3.3 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2021 276   Presbyterian L 54-59 61%     0 - 3 -11.2 -13.7 +1.9
  Nov 25, 2021 338   Central Arkansas W 73-67 82%     1 - 3 -6.9 -7.3 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2021 282   @ New Orleans L 71-79 51%     1 - 4 -11.5 -3.4 -8.3
  Dec 03, 2021 269   @ Portland W 90-82 48%     2 - 4 +5.2 +15.1 -9.9
  Dec 05, 2021 199   @ Seattle W 89-82 32%     3 - 4 +8.6 +8.9 -0.8
  Dec 11, 2021 216   Gardner-Webb W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 14, 2021 51   @ Wake Forest L 67-82 8%    
  Dec 22, 2021 333   @ Hampton W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 29, 2021 124   @ Wofford L 67-76 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 110   Furman L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 05, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-74 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 174   UNC Greensboro W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 13, 2022 177   @ Mercer L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 238   @ The Citadel L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 20, 2022 243   Samford W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 88   Chattanooga L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 26, 2022 110   @ Furman L 70-80 18%    
  Jan 29, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 02, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 04, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 10, 2022 177   Mercer W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 238   The Citadel W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 17, 2022 243   @ Samford L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 62-74 14%    
  Feb 23, 2022 124   Wofford L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 296   @ Western Carolina W 77-76 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.7 6.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 4.9 2.2 0.3 14.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 9.4 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.9 8.4 11.3 13.6 13.8 13.3 11.0 8.3 5.4 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 93.8% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-4 60.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 35.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.4% 20.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 26.2% 26.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 15.3% 15.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.8% 13.4% 13.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 3.4% 9.2% 9.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.1
11-7 5.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
10-8 8.3% 4.2% 4.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.9
9-9 11.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.6
8-10 13.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 13.0
7-11 13.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 13.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.3
4-14 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
3-15 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-16 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%