VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.8 #335
Expected Predictive Rating -11.3 #325
Pace 69.3 #188
Improvement +1.9 #86

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #291 F C D C+ C
Defense #346 F C F C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #354 0.98 #340 -7.9 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.78 #149 -1.6 #250
Three Pointers 55% #7 0.82 #343 +1.6 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #351 -7.8 #352
Freethrows 17.1 #205 71% #243 12.1 #207
Second Chance 28.2% #247 0.94 #287 0.27 #284
Turnovers 15.8% #130
Total Offense -4.2 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.35 #345 -3.3 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.80 #241 +0.0 #195
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.11 #304 -3.0 #293
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -6.3 #341
Freethrows 17.1 #180 73% #222 12.6 #194
Second Chance 39.1% #361 1.04 #194 0.41 #340
Turnovers 16.1% #212
Total Defense -6.5 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 0.3% #182
Shot Type Make % Effect -15.2% #357 12.1% #344
Possession Length 18.6 #308 15.4 #8
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #333 0.26 #356
Improvement +1.3 #91 +0.6 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.6% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 9.1% 25.9% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 9.7% 23.2%
First Four0.4% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 329 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 37%     -3.1   1 - 0 -3.3 -4.1 +0.4
  Sun, Nov 9 56 @Missouri L 68-106 3%     -11.4   1 - 1 -25.6 -6.3 -16.5
  Sat, Nov 15 316 Jacksonville L 67-69 55%     -3.1   1 - 2 -14.0 -7.5 -6.6
  Wed, Nov 19 119 @Richmond L 54-87 7%     -20.5   1 - 3 -27.0 -14.0 -15.0
  Sat, Nov 22 350 @Stetson L 80-99 45%     -8.7   1 - 4 -28.5 +6.8 -36.4
  Mon, Nov 24 180 Buffalo L 70-78 19%     -1.3   1 - 5 -9.3 -2.8 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 26 127 Bowling Green L 48-81 12%     -22.0   1 - 6 -30.7 -20.2 -12.2
  Sat, Nov 29 48 @Central Florida L 57-82 2%     -9.0   1 - 7 -10.7 -9.4 -2.0
  Tue, Dec 9 344 Loyola Maryland W 86-70 65%     14.7   2 - 7 +1.1 +13.4 -10.4
  Sun, Dec 21 243 @Radford L 90-97 20%     -1.7   2 - 8 -8.8 +11.2 -19.7
  Thu, Jan 1 226 Samford L 58-78 34%     -4.5   2 - 9 0 - 1 -26.6 -16.9 -10.6
  Sat, Jan 3 261 Chattanooga W 79-71 43%     8.2   3 - 9 1 - 1 -0.9 +1.2 -2.0
  Wed, Jan 7 131 @East Tennessee St. L 66-82 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 155 @Furman L 67-81 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 172 Mercer L 75-82 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 358 The Citadel W 77-70 73%    
  Wed, Jan 21 280 UNC Greensboro L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 284 @Western Carolina L 74-81 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 358 @The Citadel W 74-73 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 172 @Mercer L 72-85 12%    
  Wed, Feb 4 220 Wofford L 74-78 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 131 East Tennessee St. L 69-79 19%    
  Wed, Feb 11 280 @UNC Greensboro L 72-79 25%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 Furman L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 220 @Wofford L 71-81 17%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Western Carolina L 77-78 47%    
  Thu, Feb 26 226 @Samford L 71-81 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 261 @Chattanooga L 71-79 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.5 3.2 5.8 3.0 0.3 12.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.4 9.3 4.7 0.7 0.0 22.8 8th
9th 1.1 5.4 11.5 11.4 5.1 0.9 0.0 35.4 9th
10th 1.0 3.7 4.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 13.1 10th
Total 1.0 4.8 10.4 15.8 19.0 17.8 13.3 8.7 5.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 15.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.3
9-9 5.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.1
8-10 8.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.6
7-11 13.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.3
6-12 17.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.8
5-13 19.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.0
4-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 10.4% 10.4
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%