VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.3#332
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#335
Pace68.8#204
Improvement+2.1#64

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#251
First Shot-3.3#270
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks-6.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#87
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement+3.4#11

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#352
First Shot-1.7#226
After Offensive Rebounds-5.6#365
Layups/Dunks-0.8#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#260
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement-1.3#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.8% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 21.4% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 27.4% 16.1% 34.2%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 339 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 42%     1 - 0 -4.4 -4.7 +0.0
  Sun, Nov 9 60 @Missouri L 68-106 3%     1 - 1 -26.2 -6.6 -16.8
  Sat, Nov 15 317 Jacksonville L 67-69 57%     1 - 2 -14.1 -7.7 -6.6
  Wed, Nov 19 104 @Richmond L 54-87 6%     1 - 3 -25.5 -11.5 -16.0
  Sat, Nov 22 349 @Stetson L 80-99 46%     1 - 4 -28.4 +7.4 -36.8
  Mon, Nov 24 196 Buffalo L 70-78 22%     1 - 5 -10.3 -3.2 -7.6
  Wed, Nov 26 117 Bowling Green L 48-81 11%     1 - 6 -29.8 -18.3 -13.2
  Sat, Nov 29 49 @Central Florida L 57-82 2%     1 - 7 -11.6 -9.7 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 9 329 Loyola Maryland W 86-70 60%     2 - 7 +3.0 +14.5 -9.6
  Sun, Dec 21 261 @Radford L 90-97 23%     2 - 8 -9.5 +10.3 -19.6
  Thu, Jan 1 227 Samford L 75-78 37%    
  Sat, Jan 3 235 Chattanooga L 73-76 39%    
  Wed, Jan 7 141 @East Tennessee St. L 68-83 9%    
  Sat, Jan 10 148 @Furman L 68-82 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 174 Mercer L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 355 The Citadel W 77-71 72%    
  Wed, Jan 21 294 UNC Greensboro L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 299 @Western Carolina L 75-81 30%    
  Thu, Jan 29 355 @The Citadel W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 174 @Mercer L 73-85 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 220 Wofford L 73-77 38%    
  Sat, Feb 7 141 East Tennessee St. L 71-80 22%    
  Wed, Feb 11 294 @UNC Greensboro L 73-79 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 148 Furman L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Feb 18 220 @Wofford L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 299 Western Carolina W 78-77 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 227 @Samford L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 235 @Chattanooga L 70-79 21%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 1.7 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.9 6.0 2.7 0.3 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 7.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 20.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 5.2 9.1 8.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 27.0 9th
10th 0.5 2.5 5.0 5.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 17.8 10th
Total 0.5 2.6 6.2 11.0 14.4 16.0 15.1 12.5 9.2 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 73.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 24.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 13.0% 13.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
11-7 1.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
10-8 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 6.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-10 9.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-11 12.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.4
6-12 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 16.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
3-15 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
2-16 6.2% 6.2
1-17 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%