Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.1 154
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 172
Pace 66.9 235
Improvement -1.6 258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 133 C B- C+ C+ C
Defense C- 212 C- C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 71 C 58% 162 +2.6 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 152 C+ 39% 131 +0.8 131
Three Pointers 35% 298 C- 32% 239 -3.6 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 174 C -0.3 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 182
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 150 B- 1.11 67 B- 0.35 96
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 154
Freethrows C+ 0.31 152 C 73% 165 C+ 0.23 143
Total Offense C+ +1.3 133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 45 C 59% 198 -3.4 301
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 109 D- 44% 339 -2.1 330
Three Pointers 33% 352 C+ 33% 125 +4.4 26
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.1 195 C- +0.9 218
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 220
Second Chance C- 31.2% 209 C 1.03 182 C 0.32 212
Turnovers C 17.4% 154
Freethrows C 0.30 182 C+ 71% 123 C 0.22 168
Total Defense C- -1.3 212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 299 16.9 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 285 0.17 193
Improvement +1.9 #87 -3.6 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 26% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 80% 88% 60%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 26% 21%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 72 @California L 67 - 77 16% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 F+ B+ A B- +4 B- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 165 Toledo L 71 - 81 63% -4  36% 0 - 2 D- -13 D -5 B B- F D- -9 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 235 Radford W 92 - 59 66% +13  92% 1 - 2 A+ +29 A- +10 A- B B- A+ +17 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 147 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 48% +2  65% 1 - 3 C- -3 D- -8 D+ C+ C+ B +5 A- D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 331 @Stetson W 79 - 62 78% +15  87% 2 - 3 B +9 B +6 A- B F B +5 C+ F+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 74 @Butler L 69 - 94 16% -5  43% 2 - 4 F+ -14 D- -8 D+ C- C D+ -5 F+ F+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 196 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 48% -0  47% 2 - 5 0 - 1 C -0 D -6 C D+ C B +6 B F A
 Sun, Dec 7 234 Green Bay W 86 - 58 75% +12  95% 3 - 5 1 - 1 A +21 B +6 D+ A+ B A+ +16 A D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 166 @Marshall L 74 - 76 40% +1  45% 3 - 6 C +1 B +7 B F+ A+ D -6 C F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 86 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 37% -8  2% 3 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C- A- C -1 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 229 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 75% +1  47% 4 - 7 C -1 D -5 C F+ D- B- +4 B- A- D+
 Mon, Dec 29 149 Oakland W 88 - 73 59% +14  97% 5 - 7 2 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C D- B +6 A- A- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 81% +7  86% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C- -3 C +1 F B+ A- D+ -4 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 327 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 77% +5  82% 7 - 7 4 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 D+ A+ F D -7 D C- C
 Fri, Jan 9 260 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 60% +6  73% 8 - 7 5 - 1 C -1 B +6 B D D- D -6 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 149 @Oakland W 94 - 84 36% +17  99% 9 - 7 6 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 A+ D F C+ +1 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 196 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 70% +5  90% 10 - 7 7 - 1 C+ +5 A+ +21 C A+ A+ F -16 C F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 306 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 86% +0  55% 10 - 8 7 - 2 F+ -18 D -5 F B- A F -12 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 24 205 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 71% +9  88% 11 - 8 8 - 2 C+ +2 A- +9 B- C- A+ D -7 F C B
 Fri, Jan 30 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 62% +5  79% 12 - 8 9 - 2 C+ +4 D -5 D- B+ D- A- +8 C+ B D+
 Sun, Feb 1 234 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 54% +9  100% 13 - 8 10 - 2 B- +7 A +12 C C+ A+ D+ -4 C F C
 Wed, Feb 4 194 @Robert Morris L 66 - 72 47% -5  21% 13 - 9 10 - 3 D+ -5 F+ -9 F C- B- B- +3 D A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 253 Purdue Fort Wayne W 73 - 68 78% +8  91% 14 - 9 11 - 3 C- -3 C+ +2 C- A- C- D+ -5 D- B B
 Thu, Feb 12 260 Detroit Mercy L 74 - 77 80% -0  53% 14 - 10 11 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 D D+ B+ F+ -9 F C- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 306 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 77 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 327 IU Indianapolis W 90 - 76 90%
 Sun, Feb 22 194 Robert Morris W 75 - 70 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 253 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 74 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 205 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 77 49%
Totals 17 - 12 14 - 6 +0 F +1 A+ C C C- -1 C- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ C- C 43% 22% 35% C C C+ B- B- C+ C+ C C+ C- C D- C+ C- 44% 23% 33% C- C- C- C C C C C+ C
1.11 58% 39% 32% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .31 73% .23 1.10 59% 44% 33% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .32 17% .30 71% .22
Nov
6		 California D+ F A+ F F+ 31% 17% 52% C- F+ D+ A+ B+ A C F D B- F+ F A+ B- 36% 23% 41% C- B- C- A+ A+ C F F+ F
0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16 1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44
Nov
11		 Toledo D A+ D+ B A- 36% 26% 38% F+ B D- A+ B- F A- A+ A+ D- F B F D- 44% 36% 20% B D F F+ F A+ F B- F+
1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27 1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27
Nov
15		 Radford A- F A+ A+ A 40% 24% 36% D A- C A- B B- A+ C- A A+ B A A- A 49% 14% 37% D- B+ A- A+ A+ B+ C- A- C+
1.27 40% 50% 61% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.3 .42 17% .45 70% .31 0.81 50% 29% 28% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.2 .05 21% .37 67% .24
Nov
16		 Kent St. D- A B- F C- 37% 28% 35% D- D+ D- A+ C+ C+ C- F D B C+ C- A+ A 46% 15% 38% D- A- F C+ D- A F F+ F
0.98 70% 40% 21% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 15% .30 63% .19 1.03 54% 38% 20% -10 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .45 24% .47 81% .38
Nov
25		 Stetson B F A A+ A 39% 16% 45% C+ A- C+ B+ B F F F F B B+ F+ B+ B- 40% 18% 42% D- C+ D F F+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06 0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10
Nov
28		 Butler D- D C D- D 54% 18% 28% A- D+ D+ B- C- C F D F D+ F+ F B+ F+ 52% 17% 31% C- F+ C+ F F+ C D A+ B-
0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03 1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23
Dec
3		 Youngstown St. D C+ A+ F C- 56% 19% 26% A- C F A+ D+ C A+ F C B C+ B A A- 52% 14% 34% D- B F F F A F A+ D-
0.99 63% 63% 18% +1 +2 1.07 17% 1.6 .27 19% .50 54% .27 1.00 57% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.95 44% 1.2 .53 25% .39 60% .23
Dec
7		 Green Bay B A+ F F D- 39% 8% 53% A- D+ C A+ A+ B A A A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 58% 16% 27% F+ A C+ F D+ A+ C B- C+
1.27 80% 25% 22% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.9 .59 12% .42 80% .33 0.86 54% 14% 25% -10 +2 0.87 23% 1.3 .30 27% .36 72% .26
Dec
13		 Marshall B B F+ A+ B+ 24% 29% 47% D- B A- F F+ A+ F D F D F F B+ C- 25% 27% 48% B- C F+ D+ F+ C- D- F F+
1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07 1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25
Dec
16		 Miami (OH) D+ A- D- F F+ 46% 21% 32% B- D- C+ D C- A- A+ B A+ C F A+ F F 48% 15% 38% D- F A+ A+ A+ C F A+ D+
1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30 1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28
Dec
22		 Eastern Michigan D B+ C- F C 49% 18% 33% B C B- F F+ D- A+ F A+ B- B+ A+ D- A- 57% 19% 25% F B- B+ A A- D+ D+ B C-
1.03 64% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 32% 0.5 .18 19% .58 63% .36 0.94 50% 20% 38% -6 +2 0.92 23% 0.8 .17 16% .28 69% .19
Dec
29		 Oakland B C C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% B A+ C- B- C D- A+ B A+ B A F+ A- A- 41% 22% 37% B- A- F A+ A- A- F C+ F
1.24 61% 40% 60% +14 +1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 77% .29 1.03 45% 45% 28% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 18% .52 73% .38
Jan
1		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee C F C C- F 47% 28% 26% D F B+ C B+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F+ D+ 35% 41% 24% A+ C B C- B- F A B A-
1.17 45% 38% 33% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.2 .43 12% .44 84% .37 1.08 47% 41% 38% -1 -3 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 9% .19 64% .12
Jan
4		 IU Indianapolis C+ F+ A+ A D 62% 5% 32% A D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F F F+ 35% 33% 33% A- D F A- C- C C- A C
1.21 52% 50% 42% +1 +4 1.11 38% 2.2 .83 25% .50 80% .40 1.15 42% 56% 44% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.9 .32 16% .20 64% .12
Jan
9		 Detroit Mercy B C+ D- A+ B 47% 20% 33% C B F+ B- D D- A+ A+ A+ D F+ D+ A+ C- 34% 42% 25% C+ C F F F D+ F B- F
1.19 61% 30% 44% +5 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39 1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38
Jan
11		 Oakland A B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% D- A+ B+ F D F B- A+ A+ C+ C D C D+ 40% 31% 29% A C A+ F+ A- F F B- F
1.28 68% 59% 53% +20 -2 1.38 42% 0.6 .25 25% .27 100% .27 1.15 57% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.3 .24 8% .48 72% .34
Jan
15		 Youngstown St. A+ A F A+ C+ 46% 42% 12% F C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F D+ C+ 39% 10% 51% D+ C F+ F F F+ C+ F+ C-
1.42 74% 24% 50% +4 -2 1.06 52% 1.3 .69 11% .48 86% .41 1.27 47% 60% 36% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.6 .58 15% .25 79% .20
Jan
21		 Cleveland St. D F+ A+ F F 45% 20% 36% C+ F F+ A+ B- A C F D F C+ B- F D 44% 12% 44% F+ D- A+ F C F D+ F F
1.14 52% 82% 15% -4 +1 0.95 30% 1.5 .45 10% .29 67% .19 1.23 55% 33% 45% +6 +2 1.16 15% 1.8 .26 13% .37 91% .33
Jan
24		 Northern Kentucky A- B+ D- B B- 51% 20% 29% B- B- B+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D F F A+ F 44% 20% 36% C+ F B- D C B C+ B- C+
1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48 1.14 77% 70% 22% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20
Jan
30		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D A F F F+ 47% 8% 45% B+ D- C A+ B+ D- B+ F D+ A- C- F A+ B 43% 14% 43% F C+ C A B D+ A- A+ A+
1.04 72% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 30% 1.5 .43 19% .39 57% .22 0.95 58% 50% 21% -7 +1 0.91 32% 0.9 .27 14% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Green Bay A A+ F C- C+ 33% 20% 47% C C B- C- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C F C- 48% 23% 30% C+ C F+ F+ F C F F F
1.31 80% 22% 33% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 8% .48 89% .43 1.18 48% 40% 46% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.3 .37 16% .49 85% .41
Feb
4		 Robert Morris F+ F F D- F 55% 12% 33% A- F B+ F C- B- C F D B- D+ A+ F D 41% 22% 37% C- D A+ F A D+ B- A+ B+
0.96 46% 17% 29% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.8 .27 15% .38 68% .26 1.05 59% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 18% 1.5 .27 16% .21 58% .12
Feb
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ A C+ F C- 44% 19% 37% C- C- A+ D+ A- C- A+ F A D+ C- F C+ F+ 32% 23% 45% A- D- C- A+ B B C- D- D+
1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28 1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19
Feb
12		 Detroit Mercy D+ D+ A+ F D 44% 19% 37% C D C D- D+ B+ D+ A- C F+ D- F D+ F 33% 46% 21% B+ F D+ C+ C- C- A+ F A-
1.12 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25 1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.3 26.2 32.8 14.0 79.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 9.9 6.5 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 3.9 16.2 32.7 32.8 14.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 14.0    14.0
15-5 100.0% 32.8    25.8 7.0
14-6 80.0% 26.2    12.5 13.4 0.2
13-7 38.8% 6.3    0.8 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0
12-8 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 79.5% 79.5 53.2 23.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 14.0% 30.8% 30.8% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.7 0.1 9.7
15-5 32.8% 27.1% 27.1% 14.1 0.0 1.5 5.2 2.2 0.0 23.9
14-6 32.7% 22.5% 22.5% 14.5 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.3 0.3 25.3
13-7 16.2% 18.8% 18.8% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.3 13.2
12-8 3.9% 15.6% 15.6% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.3
11-9 0.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 14.2 75.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 13.4 0.1 7.2 51.4 39.9 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%
Lose Out 0.1%