Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#153
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Pace67.4#239
Improvement-0.3#195

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#174
First Shot-1.4#208
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#111
Layup/Dunks+0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#139
First Shot+1.2#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#229
Layups/Dunks-7.1#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#3
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement-0.5#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 21.7% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 77.2% 85.8% 66.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 95.8% 85.5%
Conference Champion 21.1% 30.7% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round18.6% 21.5% 14.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 414 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 65 @California L 67-77 15%     0 - 1 +1.3 +0.2 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 170 Toledo L 71-81 65%     0 - 2 -13.7 -3.1 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 261 Radford W 92-59 72%     1 - 2 +27.5 +11.6 +14.7
  Sun, Nov 16 124 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 42%     1 - 3 -1.6 -4.4 +3.0
  Tue, Nov 25 349 @Stetson W 79-62 82%     2 - 3 +7.6 +8.4 +0.6
  Fri, Nov 28 50 @Butler L 69-94 12%     2 - 4 -11.7 -2.8 -7.1
  Wed, Dec 3 163 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 41%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.6 -0.8 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 283 Green Bay W 86-58 83%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +18.4 +8.8 +10.6
  Sat, Dec 13 161 @Marshall L 74-76 40%     3 - 6 +0.9 +10.7 -10.0
  Tue, Dec 16 106 Miami (OH) L 76-83 46%     3 - 7 -5.7 -0.8 -4.7
  Mon, Dec 22 216 Eastern Michigan W 70-64 75%     4 - 7 -0.5 -2.7 +2.3
  Mon, Dec 29 137 Oakland W 80-78 56%    
  Thu, Jan 1 210 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-71 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 354 @IU Indianapolis W 89-78 85%    
  Fri, Jan 9 296 @Detroit Mercy W 75-70 66%    
  Sun, Jan 11 137 @Oakland L 77-81 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 163 Youngstown St. W 72-68 63%    
  Wed, Jan 21 334 Cleveland St. W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 208 Northern Kentucky W 77-70 73%    
  Fri, Jan 30 210 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-74 52%    
  Sun, Feb 1 283 @Green Bay W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 4 185 @Robert Morris L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Feb 12 296 Detroit Mercy W 78-67 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 334 @Cleveland St. W 80-72 76%    
  Thu, Feb 19 354 IU Indianapolis W 92-75 94%    
  Sun, Feb 22 185 Robert Morris W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 199 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 208 @Northern Kentucky W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.5 5.4 6.4 4.3 1.8 0.4 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.6 6.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.6 4.6 0.9 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 3.8 0.5 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.6 0.3 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.3 11.0 13.9 16.0 15.2 12.3 8.7 4.6 1.8 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 99.8% 1.8    1.7 0.1
17-3 93.5% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 73.6% 6.4    4.2 2.0 0.2
15-5 43.8% 5.4    2.2 2.4 0.8 0.1
14-6 16.2% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 12.9 6.0 1.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 52.9% 52.9% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.8% 44.3% 44.3% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0
17-3 4.6% 36.9% 36.9% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.9
16-4 8.7% 33.1% 33.1% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.8
15-5 12.3% 26.1% 26.1% 14.2 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.0 9.1
14-6 15.2% 22.8% 22.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.2 11.8
13-7 16.0% 16.6% 16.6% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.3 13.3
12-8 13.9% 13.3% 13.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 12.0
11-9 11.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 9.8
10-10 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.8
9-11 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.3
8-12 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.4
7-13 1.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.5 6.5 2.5 81.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 40.6 54.7 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%