Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.3 164
Results Rating -0.9 173
Consistency 0.15 166
Pace 67.1 224
Improvement -2.2 266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 136 C C+ C C+ C
Defense C- 218 C- C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 C+ 59% 141 +3.0 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 106 C 39% 155 +0.8 133
Three Pointers 35% 310 C 34% 202 -3.4 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 184 C +0.4 161
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 159
Second Chance C+ 31.3% 157 C+ 1.06 127 C+ 0.33 121
Turnovers C 16.8% 169
Freethrows C+ 0.31 151 C+ 74% 135 C+ 0.23 131
Total Offense C+ +1.2 136

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 281 C- 11.5% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 286 C 4.9% 178
Three Pointers F+ 74% 343 C 0.8% 165
Total D- 46% 339 D+ 6.3% 264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 41 C- 60% 232 +4.0 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 98 D- 44% 344 +2.2 335
Three Pointers 33% 356 C+ 33% 113 -4.6 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 181 C- +1.4 237
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance C 30.2% 172 C 1.03 188 C 0.31 181
Turnovers C 16.9% 183
Freethrows C 0.30 172 C 72% 193 C 0.22 172
Total Defense C- -1.6 218

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 69 C+ 13.0% 91
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 34 C 5.3% 140
Three Pointers B- 81% 87 C 0.8% 171
Total B+ 46% 21 B 7.2% 61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 286 17.0 128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 287 0.17 175
Consistency 0.11 110 0.11 100
Improvement +1.6 105 -3.8 338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 186 165 143
Results Rating Rank 219 176 121
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22% 23% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round22% 23% 21%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 69 @California L 67 - 77 14% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 F+ B A B +4 B- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Toledo L 71 - 81 61% -4  36% 0 - 2 D- -13 D -5 B B- F F+ -9 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 233 Radford W 92 - 59 64% +13  92% 1 - 2 A+ +29 A- +11 A- B B- A+ +17 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 145 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 45% +2  65% 1 - 3 C- -3 D- -7 D+ C+ C+ B +4 A- F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 326 @Stetson W 79 - 62 76% +15  87% 2 - 3 B +9 B- +5 A B F B+ +5 B- F+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 75 @Butler L 69 - 94 15% -5  43% 2 - 4 D- -14 D- -8 D+ C- C D+ -5 F+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 192 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 45% -0  47% 2 - 5 0 - 1 C +0 D -5 C+ D+ C- B +5 B F A
 Sun, Dec 7 229 Green Bay W 86 - 58 73% +12  95% 3 - 5 1 - 1 A +21 B +7 C- A+ B A+ +15 A D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 178 @Marshall L 74 - 76 41% +1  45% 3 - 6 C -0 B- +5 B- F+ A+ D -5 C F C
 Tue, Dec 16 83 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 34% -8  2% 3 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C- A- C -0 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 249 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 76% +1  47% 4 - 7 C- -2 D -5 C F+ D- B- +3 B- A- D+
 Mon, Dec 29 171 Oakland W 88 - 73 62% +14  97% 5 - 7 2 - 1 B+ +11 B +6 A+ C- D- B+ +5 A- A- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 274 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 80% +7  86% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C- -3 C +0 F B+ A- D+ -3 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 325 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 75% +5  82% 7 - 7 4 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 D+ A+ F D- -7 D- D+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 254 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 56% +6  73% 8 - 7 5 - 1 C +0 B +6 B D D- D -6 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 171 @Oakland W 94 - 84 39% +17  99% 9 - 7 6 - 1 B+ +12 A +12 A+ D- F C -0 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 15 192 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 67% +5  90% 10 - 7 7 - 1 B- +5 A+ +22 C A+ A+ F -17 C F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 315 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 87% +0  55% 10 - 8 7 - 2 F -19 D- -7 F B- A F -12 D C F
 Sat, Jan 24 199 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 68% +9  88% 11 - 8 8 - 2 C+ +3 A- +10 B- C A+ D- -7 F C B
 Fri, Jan 30 274 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 61% +5  79% 12 - 8 9 - 2 C+ +4 D -5 D- B+ D- A +9 C+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 1 229 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 52% +9  100% 13 - 8 10 - 2 B- +7 A +13 C+ C+ A+ D+ -5 C F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 170 @Robert Morris L 66 - 72 39% -5  21% 13 - 9 10 - 3 C- -4 D- -8 F C- B- B +4 D A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 258 Purdue Fort Wayne W 73 - 68 78% +8  91% 14 - 9 11 - 3 C- -3 C+ +2 D+ A D+ D -5 D B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 254 Detroit Mercy L 74 - 77 77% -0  53% 14 - 10 11 - 4 D -11 C- -2 D D+ A- F+ -9 F C- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 315 @Cleveland St. W 102 - 90 72% +10  95% 15 - 10 12 - 4 B- +5 A +12 A+ D D D- -7 F C+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 325 IU Indianapolis W 85 - 73 88% +4  82% 16 - 10 13 - 4 C -1 C -0 B- F D+ C -1 D+ A+ D-
 Sun, Feb 22 170 Robert Morris L 68 - 81 62% -8  0% 16 - 11 13 - 5 F+ -17 D- -8 C- F+ F F+ -9 F B D-
 Wed, Feb 25 258 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 77 46%
Totals 17 - 12 14 - 6 +0 C+ +1 B C C C- -2 C C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C C C 43% 44% 35% C C C+ C+ C+ C C+ C+ C+ C- C- D- C+ C- 44% 23% 33% C C- C C C C C C C
1.10 59% 39% 34% 0 0 1.03 31% 1.1 .33 17% .31 74% .23 1.11 60% 44% 33% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.0 .31 17% .30 72% .23
Nov
6		 California D+ F A+ F F+ 31% 17% 52% C F+ D+ A+ B A C F D B F+ F A+ B 36% 23% 41% C- B- C- A+ A+ C F F+ F
0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16 1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44
Nov
11		 Toledo D A+ C- B A- 36% 26% 38% F+ B D- A+ B- F A- A+ A+ F+ F B F D- 44% 36% 20% B D F F+ F A+ F C+ F+
1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27 1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27
Nov
15		 Radford A- F A+ A+ A 40% 24% 36% D A- C+ A- B B- A+ C- A A+ B A A A 49% 14% 37% D- B+ A- A+ A+ B+ C- A- C+
1.27 40% 50% 61% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.3 .42 17% .45 70% .31 0.81 50% 29% 28% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.2 .05 21% .37 67% .24
Nov
16		 Kent St. D- A B- F C- 37% 28% 35% D- D+ D- A+ C+ C+ D+ F D- B C+ C- A+ A 46% 15% 38% D- A- F C F+ A+ F F+ F
0.98 70% 40% 21% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 15% .30 63% .19 1.03 54% 38% 20% -10 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .45 24% .47 81% .38
Nov
25		 Stetson B- F A A+ A 39% 16% 45% C+ A C+ B+ B F F F F B+ B+ F+ A- B 40% 18% 42% D- B- D F F+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06 0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10
Nov
28		 Butler D- D- C- D- D- 54% 18% 28% A- D+ D+ B- C- C F D F D+ F+ F A- F+ 52% 17% 31% C- F+ C F F C+ D A+ B-
0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03 1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23
Dec
3		 Youngstown St. D C+ A+ F C 56% 19% 26% B+ C+ F A+ D+ C- A+ F C+ B B- B- A A- 52% 14% 34% D- B F F F A F A+ D
0.99 63% 63% 18% +1 +2 1.07 17% 1.6 .27 19% .50 54% .27 1.00 57% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.95 44% 1.2 .53 25% .39 60% .23
Dec
7		 Green Bay B A+ F F D 39% 8% 53% A- C- C A+ A+ B A B+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 16% 27% F A C F D+ A+ C- B C
1.27 80% 25% 22% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.9 .59 12% .42 80% .33 0.86 54% 14% 25% -10 +2 0.87 23% 1.3 .30 27% .36 72% .26
Dec
13		 Marshall B- B D- A+ B 24% 29% 47% D- B- B+ F F+ A+ F D- F D F F B+ C- 25% 27% 48% B C F D+ F C D- F F+
1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07 1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25
Dec
16		 Miami (OH) D+ A- D- F F+ 46% 21% 32% B- D- C+ D- C- A- A+ B A+ C F A+ F F 48% 15% 38% D- F A+ A+ A+ C F A+ D+
1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30 1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28
Dec
22		 Eastern Michigan D B C- F C 49% 18% 33% B- C B- F F+ D- A+ F A+ B- B+ A+ D- A- 57% 19% 25% F B- B+ A+ A- D+ D+ B+ C-
1.03 64% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 32% 0.5 .18 19% .58 63% .36 0.94 50% 20% 38% -6 +2 0.92 23% 0.8 .17 16% .28 69% .19
Dec
29		 Oakland B C C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% B- A+ D+ C+ C- D- A+ B A+ B+ A F+ A- A- 41% 22% 37% B- A- F A+ A- A- F C+ F
1.24 61% 40% 60% +14 +1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 77% .29 1.03 45% 45% 28% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 18% .52 73% .38
Jan
1		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee C F C C- F 47% 28% 26% D F B+ C B+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F+ D+ 35% 41% 24% A+ C B C B- F A B A
1.17 45% 38% 33% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.2 .43 12% .44 84% .37 1.08 47% 41% 38% -1 -3 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 9% .19 64% .12
Jan
4		 IU Indianapolis B- F+ A+ A D 62% 5% 32% A D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ D- A+ F F F+ 35% 33% 33% B+ D- F B+ D+ C C- A C
1.21 52% 50% 42% +1 +4 1.11 38% 2.2 .83 25% .50 80% .40 1.15 42% 56% 44% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.9 .32 16% .20 64% .12
Jan
9		 Detroit Mercy B C+ F+ A+ B 47% 20% 33% C- B D- C+ D D- A+ A+ A+ D F D+ A+ C- 34% 42% 25% B- C F F F D+ F B- F
1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39 1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38
Jan
11		 Oakland A B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% D- A+ B+ F D- F B A+ A+ C C D- C D+ 40% 31% 29% A C- A+ F+ A F F B- F
1.28 68% 59% 53% +19 -2 1.38 42% 0.6 .25 25% .27 100% .27 1.15 57% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.3 .24 8% .48 72% .34
Jan
15		 Youngstown St. A+ A+ F A+ B- 46% 42% 12% F C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F D+ C+ 39% 10% 51% D+ C F+ F F F+ C+ F C
1.42 74% 24% 50% +4 -2 1.06 52% 1.3 .69 11% .48 86% .41 1.27 47% 60% 36% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.6 .58 15% .25 79% .20
Jan
21		 Cleveland St. D- F A+ F F 45% 20% 36% C F D- A+ B- A C- F D- F C+ B- F D 44% 12% 44% F D A+ F C F D F F
1.14 52% 82% 15% -4 +1 0.95 30% 1.5 .45 10% .29 67% .19 1.23 55% 33% 45% +5 +2 1.16 15% 1.8 .26 13% .37 91% .33
Jan
24		 Northern Kentucky A- B+ D- B+ B- 51% 20% 29% B- B- B+ F C A+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F A+ F 44% 20% 36% C+ F B- D C B C C+ C+
1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48 1.14 77% 70% 22% +8 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20
Jan
30		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D A F F F 47% 8% 45% B+ D- C A+ B+ D- B+ F D+ A C- F A+ B 43% 14% 43% F C+ C A+ B+ D+ A A+ A+
1.04 72% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 30% 1.5 .43 19% .39 57% .22 0.95 58% 50% 21% -7 +1 0.91 32% 0.9 .27 14% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Green Bay A A+ F C- C+ 33% 20% 47% C C+ B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C F C 48% 23% 30% C+ C F+ F+ F C- F F F
1.31 80% 22% 33% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 8% .48 89% .43 1.18 48% 40% 46% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.3 .37 16% .49 85% .41
Feb
4		 Robert Morris D- F F D- F 55% 12% 33% A- F B+ F C- B- C F D B C- A+ F D 41% 22% 37% C- D A+ F A D+ B- A+ B+
0.96 46% 17% 29% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.8 .27 15% .38 68% .26 1.05 59% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 18% 1.5 .27 16% .21 58% .12
Feb
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ A C+ F D+ 44% 19% 37% C- D+ A+ D+ A D+ A+ F A D C- F C+ F+ 32% 23% 45% A- D D+ A+ B- B C F D+
1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28 1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19
Feb
12		 Detroit Mercy C- D+ A+ F D 44% 19% 37% C- D C F+ D+ A- D+ A- C F+ F+ F D+ F 33% 46% 21% A- F D+ C C- C- A+ F A
1.12 54% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25 1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14
Feb
15		 Cleveland St. A A F A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% B A+ C F+ D D A+ C A+ D- F B F F 36% 21% 43% C+ F A F C+ F A+ F A+
1.37 75% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.54 38% 0.9 .33 18% .47 76% .36 1.21 77% 31% 42% +11 0 1.23 18% 1.3 .24 13% .19 83% .16
Feb
19		 IU Indianapolis C C+ A+ A- B 54% 24% 22% D+ B- C F F D+ A A+ A+ C F F A+ D 38% 29% 33% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ D- D F+ D-
1.19 64% 55% 40% +9 +1 1.22 37% 0.6 .22 21% .48 85% .41 1.02 71% 50% 22% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.8 .13 13% .22 79% .18
Feb
22		 Robert Morris D- A F D C 41% 27% 33% D C- C- F F+ F D- A+ C- F+ D F+ F F 42% 26% 32% C+ F A+ F B D- D- F F
1.01 70% 23% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 21% .32 88% .28 1.20 62% 46% 44% +8 0 1.18 25% 1.3 .33 15% .30 94% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 24.0 49.2 26.8 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 24.0 49.2 26.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 26.8    26.8
14-6 100.0% 49.2    49.2
13-7 100.0% 24.0    2.0 13.0 9.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 78.0 13.0 9.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 26.8% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 20.3
14-6 49.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.0 0.5 4.8 5.4 0.2 38.2
13-7 24.0% 18.5% 18.5% 14.8 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.4 19.6
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 14.4 78.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 13.9 0.7 22.5 61.7 15.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2%
Lose Out 8.7%