Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.3 149
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 165
Pace 67.0 226
Improvement -0.9 220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 127 C C+ C C+ C
Defense C- 213 C- C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 C 59% 146 +3.1 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 111 C+ 39% 129 +0.9 130
Three Pointers 35% 307 C 34% 197 -3.3 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 181 C +0.5 155
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 153
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 161 C+ 1.07 107 C+ 0.34 116
Turnovers C 16.6% 166
Freethrows C+ 0.32 143 C+ 74% 151 C+ 0.23 127
Total Offense C+ +1.5 127

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 279 C- 11.6% 215
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 294 C 5.1% 189
Three Pointers D- 76% 334 C 0.9% 172
Total D- 46% 337 D+ 6.4% 271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 C- 60% 221 +3.9 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 99 D- 43% 337 +2.1 331
Three Pointers 33% 357 B- 32% 104 -4.8 18
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 183 C- +1.1 226
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 225
Second Chance C 30.5% 182 C 1.03 185 C 0.31 187
Turnovers C 17.0% 171
Freethrows C 0.30 175 C+ 72% 131 C+ 0.21 160
Total Defense C- -1.2 213

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 84 B- 13.4% 81
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 37 C+ 5.7% 119
Three Pointers B- 81% 85 C 0.9% 158
Total B+ 47% 22 B 7.5% 51

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 289 16.9 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 290 0.17 172
Improvement +2.5 #76 -3.4 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
10th 50th 90th
Predictive Rating Rank 172 154 137
Conference Record 14 - 6 15 - 5 16 - 4
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 26% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 26% 22%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 415 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 71 @California L 67 - 77 16% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 F+ B A B +4 B- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 169 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  36% 0 - 2 D- -14 D -5 B B- F F+ -9 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 234 Radford W 92 - 59 66% +13  92% 1 - 2 A+ +29 A- +10 A- B B- A+ +18 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 145 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 48% +2  65% 1 - 3 C- -3 D- -7 D+ C+ C+ B +4 A- F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 327 @Stetson W 79 - 62 78% +15  87% 2 - 3 B +9 B- +5 A- B F B+ +5 B- F+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 78 @Butler L 69 - 94 17% -5  43% 2 - 4 D- -14 D- -8 D+ C- C D -5 D- F C
 Wed, Dec 3 196 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 48% -0  47% 2 - 5 0 - 1 C -0 D -6 C D+ C- B+ +6 B+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 228 Green Bay W 86 - 58 75% +12  95% 3 - 5 1 - 1 A +21 B +7 D+ A+ B A+ +16 A D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 173 @Marshall L 74 - 76 43% +1  45% 3 - 6 C +0 B- +5 B- F+ A+ D -5 C F C
 Tue, Dec 16 85 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 36% -8  2% 3 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C- A- C -0 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 244 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 77% +1  47% 4 - 7 C -1 D -4 C+ F D- B- +3 B- A- D+
 Mon, Dec 29 170 Oakland W 88 - 73 65% +14  97% 5 - 7 2 - 1 B+ +11 B +6 A+ C D- B +5 B+ A- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 81% +7  86% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C- -3 C +0 F B+ A- D+ -3 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 323 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 77% +5  82% 7 - 7 4 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 C- A+ F D- -7 D- D+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 252 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 59% +6  73% 8 - 7 5 - 1 C -0 B +6 B D D- D -6 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 170 @Oakland W 94 - 84 42% +17  99% 9 - 7 6 - 1 B+ +12 A +12 A+ D- F C -0 C- A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 196 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 70% +5  90% 10 - 7 7 - 1 B- +5 A+ +21 C A+ A+ F -16 C+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 312 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 88% +0  55% 10 - 8 7 - 2 F -18 D- -7 F B- A F -12 D C F
 Sat, Jan 24 195 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 70% +9  88% 11 - 8 8 - 2 C+ +3 A- +10 B- C A+ D- -7 F C B+
 Fri, Jan 30 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 63% +5  79% 12 - 8 9 - 2 C+ +4 D -5 D- B+ D- A +9 C+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 1 228 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 54% +9  100% 13 - 8 10 - 2 B- +7 A +13 C+ C A+ D+ -4 C F C
 Wed, Feb 4 177 @Robert Morris L 66 - 72 44% -5  21% 13 - 9 10 - 3 C- -4 F+ -8 F C- B- B +4 D A D
 Sat, Feb 7 259 Purdue Fort Wayne W 73 - 68 80% +8  91% 14 - 9 11 - 3 C- -4 C+ +2 D+ A- D+ D -5 D- B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 252 Detroit Mercy L 74 - 77 79% -0  53% 14 - 10 11 - 4 D -11 D+ -2 D D+ A- F+ -9 F C- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 312 @Cleveland St. W 102 - 90 74% +10  95% 15 - 10 12 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A+ D D- D- -7 F C+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 323 IU Indianapolis W 85 - 73 89% +4  82% 16 - 10 13 - 4 C -1 C -0 B- F D+ C -1 D+ A+ D-
 Sun, Feb 22 177 Robert Morris W 75 - 71 66%
 Wed, Feb 25 259 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 74 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 195 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 77 48%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +0 C+ +2 D C C C- -1 C C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ C C 43% 44% 35% C C C+ C+ C+ C C+ C+ C+ C- C- D- B- C- 44% 23% 33% C C- C C C C C C+ C+
1.11 59% 39% 34% 0 0 1.03 31% 1.1 .34 17% .32 74% .23 1.10 60% 43% 32% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.0 .31 17% .30 72% .23
Nov
6		 California D+ F A+ F F+ 31% 17% 52% C F+ D+ A+ B A C F D+ B F+ F A+ B 36% 23% 41% C- B- D+ A+ A+ C F F+ F
0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16 1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44
Nov
11		 Toledo D A+ D+ B- A- 36% 26% 38% F+ B D- A+ B- F A- A+ A+ F+ F B F D- 44% 36% 20% B D F F+ F A+ F B- F+
1.07 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 29% .32 87% .27 1.22 70% 38% 44% +8 -1 1.16 46% 1.2 .54 23% .37 74% .27
Nov
15		 Radford A- F A+ A+ A 40% 24% 36% D A- C+ A- B B- A+ C- A A+ B+ A A- A 49% 14% 37% D- B+ A- A+ A+ B+ C- A- C+
1.27 40% 50% 61% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.3 .42 17% .45 70% .31 0.81 50% 29% 28% -9 +2 0.88 23% 0.2 .05 21% .37 67% .24
Nov
16		 Kent St. D- A B- F C- 37% 28% 35% D- D+ D- A+ C+ C+ D+ F D- B C+ C- A+ A 46% 15% 38% D- A- F C F+ A+ F F+ F
0.98 70% 40% 21% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 15% .30 63% .19 1.03 54% 38% 20% -10 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .45 24% .47 81% .38
Nov
25		 Stetson B- F A A+ A 39% 16% 45% C+ A- C+ B+ B F F F F B+ B+ F+ A- B 40% 18% 42% D- B- D F+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06 0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10
Nov
28		 Butler D- D C D- D- 54% 18% 28% A- D+ D+ B- C- C F D+ F D F+ F A- F+ 52% 17% 31% C- D- C F F C D A+ B-
0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03 1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23
Dec
3		 Youngstown St. D C+ A+ F C- 56% 19% 26% B+ C F A+ D+ C- A+ F C+ B+ C+ B A A- 52% 14% 34% D- B+ F F F A F A+ D
0.99 63% 63% 18% +1 +2 1.07 17% 1.6 .27 19% .50 54% .27 1.00 57% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.95 44% 1.2 .53 25% .39 60% .23
Dec
7		 Green Bay B A+ F F D 39% 8% 53% A D+ C A+ A+ B A A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 16% 27% F+ A C+ F D+ A+ C- B- C
1.27 80% 25% 22% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.9 .59 12% .42 80% .33 0.86 54% 14% 25% -10 +2 0.87 23% 1.3 .30 27% .36 72% .26
Dec
13		 Marshall B- B F+ A+ B 24% 29% 47% D- B- B+ F F+ A+ F D- F D F F+ B+ C 25% 27% 48% B C F D+ F C D- F F+
1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07 1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25
Dec
16		 Miami (OH) D+ A- D- F F+ 46% 21% 32% B- D- C+ D- C- A- A+ B A+ C F A+ F F 48% 15% 38% D- F A+ A+ A+ C F A+ D+
1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30 1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28
Dec
22		 Eastern Michigan D B+ C- F C 49% 18% 33% B C+ C+ F F D- A+ F A+ B- B+ A+ D- A- 57% 19% 25% F B- B+ A A- D+ D+ B C-
1.03 64% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 32% 0.5 .18 19% .58 63% .36 0.94 50% 20% 38% -6 +2 0.92 23% 0.8 .17 16% .28 69% .19
Dec
29		 Oakland B C C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% B A+ D+ C+ C D- A+ B A+ B A F+ A- A- 41% 22% 37% B- B+ F+ A+ A- A- F C+ F
1.24 61% 40% 60% +14 +1 1.31 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 77% .29 1.03 45% 45% 28% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 18% .52 73% .38
Jan
1		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee C F C C- F 47% 28% 26% D F B+ C B+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C- F+ D+ 35% 41% 24% A+ C B C B- F A B A
1.17 45% 38% 33% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.2 .43 12% .44 84% .37 1.08 47% 41% 38% -1 -3 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 9% .19 64% .12
Jan
4		 IU Indianapolis B- F+ A+ A D 62% 5% 32% A C- C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ D- A+ F F F+ 35% 33% 33% B+ D- F B+ D+ C C- A C
1.21 52% 50% 42% +1 +4 1.11 38% 2.2 .83 25% .50 80% .40 1.15 42% 56% 44% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.9 .32 16% .20 64% .12
Jan
9		 Detroit Mercy B C+ F+ A+ B 47% 20% 33% C- B D- C+ D D- A+ A+ A+ D F C- A+ C- 34% 42% 25% B- C F F F D+ F B- F
1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39 1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38
Jan
11		 Oakland A B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 32% 32% D- A+ B+ F D- F B A+ A+ C C D C D+ 40% 31% 29% A C- A+ F A- F F B F
1.28 68% 59% 53% +20 -2 1.38 42% 0.6 .25 25% .27 100% .27 1.15 57% 44% 33% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.3 .24 8% .48 72% .34
Jan
15		 Youngstown St. A+ A F A+ C+ 46% 42% 12% F C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F D+ C+ 39% 10% 51% D+ C+ F+ F F F+ C+ F+ C
1.42 74% 24% 50% +4 -2 1.06 52% 1.3 .69 11% .48 86% .41 1.27 47% 60% 36% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.6 .58 15% .25 79% .20
Jan
21		 Cleveland St. D- F A+ F F 45% 20% 36% C+ F D- A+ B- A C- F D- F C+ B- F D 44% 12% 44% F+ D A+ F C F D F F
1.14 52% 82% 15% -4 +1 0.95 30% 1.5 .45 10% .29 67% .19 1.23 55% 33% 45% +5 +2 1.16 15% 1.8 .26 13% .37 91% .33
Jan
24		 Northern Kentucky A- B+ D- B B- 51% 20% 29% B- B- B+ F C A+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F A+ F 44% 20% 36% C+ F B- D C B+ C+ B- C+
1.25 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .37 14% .60 81% .48 1.14 77% 70% 22% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 20% .28 69% .20
Jan
30		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D A F F F 47% 8% 45% B+ D- C A+ B+ D- B+ F D+ A C- F A+ B 43% 14% 43% F C+ C A B+ D+ A A+ A+
1.04 72% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 30% 1.5 .43 19% .39 57% .22 0.95 58% 50% 21% -7 +1 0.91 32% 0.9 .27 14% .19 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Green Bay A A+ F C- C+ 33% 20% 47% C C+ B- D+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A- C F C 48% 23% 30% C+ C F+ F+ F C F F F
1.31 80% 22% 33% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 8% .48 89% .43 1.18 48% 40% 46% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.3 .37 16% .49 85% .41
Feb
4		 Robert Morris F+ F F D- F 55% 12% 33% A- F B+ F C- B- C F D B C- A+ F D 41% 22% 37% C- D A+ F A D B- A B
0.96 46% 17% 29% -11 +2 0.84 35% 0.8 .27 15% .38 68% .26 1.05 59% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 18% 1.5 .27 16% .21 58% .12
Feb
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ A C+ F D+ 44% 19% 37% C- D+ A+ D+ A- D+ A+ F A D C- F C+ F 32% 23% 45% A- D- D+ A+ B- B C- F+ D+
1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28 1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19
Feb
12		 Detroit Mercy D+ D+ A+ F D 44% 19% 37% C- D C F+ D+ A- D+ A- C F+ F+ F D+ F 33% 46% 21% B+ F D+ C+ C- C- A+ F A
1.12 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25 1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14
Feb
15		 Cleveland St. A A F A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% B A+ C F+ D D- A+ C- A+ D- F B F F 36% 21% 43% C+ F A F C+ F A+ F A+
1.37 75% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.54 38% 0.9 .33 18% .47 76% .36 1.21 77% 31% 42% +11 0 1.23 18% 1.3 .24 13% .19 83% .16
Feb
19		 IU Indianapolis C C+ A+ A- B 54% 24% 22% D+ B- C F F D+ A A+ A+ C F F A+ D 38% 29% 33% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ D- D F+ D-
1.19 64% 55% 40% +9 +1 1.22 37% 0.6 .22 21% .48 85% .41 1.02 71% 50% 22% +3 -1 1.05 17% 0.8 .13 13% .22 79% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 7.7 30.0 41.6 20.7 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.7 30.0 41.6 20.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 20.7    20.7
15-5 100.0% 41.6    41.6
14-6 100.0% 30.0    30.0
13-7 100.0% 7.7    1.0 3.4 2.6 0.6
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 93.4 3.4 2.6 0.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 20.7% 29.1% 29.1% 13.5 0.3 2.7 2.8 0.3 14.6
15-5 41.6% 25.2% 25.2% 14.2 0.0 1.3 6.2 3.0 0.1 31.1
14-6 30.0% 21.4% 21.4% 14.5 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.2 23.6
13-7 7.7% 21.3% 21.3% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 6.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 14.1 75.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 13.5 4.3 45.3 45.9 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.9%
Lose Out 2.5%