Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.7 #147
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #156
Pace 67.3 #224
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #126 C B- C C+ C
Defense #197 C C C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.16 #172 +2.4 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #148 0.80 #114 +1.1 #117
Three Pointers 35% #301 1.02 #187 -2.8 #284
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #154 +0.6 #152
Freethrows 0.31 #162 73% #157 0.23 #152
Second Chance 30.7% #177 1.19 #35 0.36 #83
Turnovers 16.4% #176
Total Offense +1.6 #126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.16 #182 -3.7 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.87 #329 -1.7 #311
Three Pointers 33% #353 0.94 #77 +5.2 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #187 -0.2 #189
Freethrows 0.30 #174 70% #64 0.21 #141
Second Chance 31.5% #225 1.01 #133 0.32 #184
Turnovers 17.0% #145
Total Defense -0.9 #197

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #179 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #154 -0.1% #182
Possession Length 18.4 #283 17.0 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #278 0.17 #166
Improvement +3.0 #46 -3.2 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 28.1% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 59.4% 68.9% 44.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round26.5% 28.1% 24.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 415 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 68 @California L 67 - 77 16% -6  0 - 1 +1 +1 D- B+ A+ -0 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 163 Toledo L 71 - 81 66% -4  0 - 2 -13 -3 B- B- F -11 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 243 Radford W 92 - 59 69% +13  1 - 2 +28 +12 A- B- C +15 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 144 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 49% +2  1 - 3 -3 -5 D+ C C +2 A- D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 325 @Stetson W 79 - 62 77% +15  2 - 3 +10 +9 A- B F +2 C+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 61 @Butler L 69 - 94 14% -5  2 - 4 -13 -4 C C- D+ -7 D- D C-
 Wed, Dec 3 224 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 55% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -2 -4 C D+ C +2 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 251 Green Bay W 86 - 58 80% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +8 D+ A+ B- +12 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 165 @Marshall L 74 - 76 43% +1  3 - 6 +1 +10 B D- A+ -10 C D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 93 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 41% -8  3 - 7 -4 -1 D C- B+ -3 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 240 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 78% +1  4 - 7 -1 -3 C F+ D- +1 B- B+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 132 Oakland W 88 - 73 58% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +14 +9 A+ C D- +4 A- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 1 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 79% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 +5 F+ B+ A- -6 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 81% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -4 +6 D+ A+ F -10 D C C+
 Fri, Jan 9 278 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 66% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +7 B D+ F+ -9 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 132 @Oakland W 94 - 84 35% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +15 +15 A+ D F -1 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 224 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 76% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +3 +24 C A+ A+ -20 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 311 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 88% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -18 -3 F C+ A- -15 D- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 191 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 71% +9  11 - 8 8 - 2 +3 +11 C+ C A+ -8 F C+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 60% +5  12 - 8 9 - 2 +5 -1 D B+ F+ +6 C+ B C
 Sun, Feb 1 251 @Green Bay W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Feb 4 208 @Robert Morris W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 225 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79 - 72 76%
 Thu, Feb 12 278 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 72 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 311 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 77 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 IU Indianapolis W 90 - 75 92%
 Sun, Feb 22 208 Robert Morris W 76 - 69 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 225 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 75 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 191 @Northern Kentucky L 77 - 78 49%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +1 +2 C B- C -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.7 14.5 20.9 14.3 4.2 59.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.1 12.5 10.9 3.5 34.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.2 18.1 25.4 24.5 14.3 4.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-3 100.0% 14.3    12.2 2.0
16-4 85.6% 20.9    13.8 7.1 0.0
15-5 56.9% 14.5    7.0 7.2 0.3
14-6 26.1% 4.7    1.3 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-7 8.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 59.4% 59.4 38.7 19.4 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.2% 39.5% 39.5% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5
17-3 14.3% 33.3% 33.3% 13.5 0.3 2.3 2.0 0.2 9.5
16-4 24.5% 30.2% 30.2% 13.9 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.3 0.0 17.1
15-5 25.4% 24.6% 24.6% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.0 0.1 19.2
14-6 18.1% 22.2% 22.2% 14.5 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.1 14.1
13-7 9.2% 19.8% 19.8% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 7.4
12-8 3.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.9
11-9 0.8% 12.4% 12.4% 15.4 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-10 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 14.0 73.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 12.7 1.2 40.4 49.7 8.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%