Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #141
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 #216
Pace 67.1 #247
Improvement +2.1 #73

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #165 C+ C- C C+ C
Defense #128 C+ C C+ B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.20 #131 +1.8 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.84 #94 +1.2 #112
Three Pointers 39% #225 0.99 #205 -1.4 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #144 +1.5 #141
Freethrows 16.6 #223 69% #270 11.4 #253
Second Chance 28.9% #232 1.12 #97 0.32 #158
Turnovers 16.2% #154
Total Offense +0.0 #165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.18 #200 -5.1 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.78 #219 -0.5 #220
Three Pointers 33% #348 0.84 #27 +7.0 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #132 +1.5 #132
Freethrows 17.7 #209 71% #150 12.6 #203
Second Chance 33.4% #286 0.91 #52 0.30 #152
Turnovers 19.2% #61
Total Defense +1.0 #128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #181 1.1% #272
Shot Type Make Effect 2.8% #139 -4% #118
Possession Length 18.2 #271 16.7 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.17 #157
Improvement +1.3 #80 +0.8 #130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 25.6% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 86.6% 91.1% 75.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.3% 91.0%
Conference Champion 36.2% 43.4% 18.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round23.7% 25.4% 19.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 76 @California L 67-77 18%     -6.1   0 - 1 +0.6 -0.2 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 11 173 Toledo L 71-81 69%     -3.8   0 - 2 -14.1 -3.2 -11.4
  Sat, Nov 15 244 Radford W 92-59 71%     13.4   1 - 2 +28.3 +12.6 +14.6
  Sun, Nov 16 130 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 46%     1.9   1 - 3 -2.0 -4.3 +2.5
  Tue, Nov 25 350 @Stetson W 79-62 84%     15.2   2 - 3 +7.2 +8.3 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 50 @Butler L 69-94 12%     -4.5   2 - 4 -11.2 -3.2 -6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 183 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 48%     -0.3   2 - 5 0 - 1 +0.6 -1.1 +1.7
  Sun, Dec 7 287 Green Bay W 86-58 84%     11.8   3 - 5 1 - 1 +18.3 +8.8 +10.5
  Sat, Dec 13 168 @Marshall L 74-76 45%     1.4   3 - 6 +0.2 +10.1 -10.1
  Tue, Dec 16 102 Miami (OH) L 76-83 46%     -8.5   3 - 7 -4.9 -0.9 -3.7
  Mon, Dec 22 207 Eastern Michigan W 70-64 75%     0.6   4 - 7 -0.1 -2.6 +2.7
  Mon, Dec 29 143 Oakland W 88-73 62%     14.1   5 - 7 2 - 1 +12.9 +9.2 +3.5
  Thu, Jan 1 195 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 71%    
  Sun, Jan 4 356 @IU Indianapolis W 89-77 87%    
  Fri, Jan 9 275 @Detroit Mercy W 74-70 66%    
  Sun, Jan 11 143 @Oakland L 78-81 39%    
  Thu, Jan 15 183 Youngstown St. W 73-68 69%    
  Wed, Jan 21 325 Cleveland St. W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 200 Northern Kentucky W 77-70 73%    
  Fri, Jan 30 195 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-73 50%    
  Sun, Feb 1 287 @Green Bay W 74-69 67%    
  Wed, Feb 4 197 @Robert Morris W 71-70 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 217 Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-71 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 275 Detroit Mercy W 77-67 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 325 @Cleveland St. W 80-72 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 356 IU Indianapolis W 92-74 95%    
  Sun, Feb 22 197 Robert Morris W 73-67 71%    
  Wed, Feb 25 217 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-74 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 200 @Northern Kentucky W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 4.6 9.8 10.4 6.8 3.1 0.7 36.2 1st
2nd 0.9 5.0 8.9 5.3 2.0 0.4 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.6 7.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.3 0.3 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.3 4.7 6th
7th 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.8 8.0 12.2 15.3 16.9 15.6 12.5 7.2 3.1 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.1
17-3 94.7% 6.8    6.2 0.6 0.0
16-4 83.8% 10.4    7.8 2.5 0.1
15-5 62.9% 9.8    4.8 4.1 0.9 0.0
14-6 27.1% 4.6    1.0 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.2% 36.2 23.6 9.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 45.5% 45.5% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
18-2 3.1% 45.2% 45.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.7
17-3 7.2% 38.7% 38.7% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 4.4
16-4 12.5% 32.9% 32.9% 13.9 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.4
15-5 15.6% 28.5% 28.5% 14.2 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.4 0.0 11.2
14-6 16.9% 25.5% 25.5% 14.5 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.2 12.6
13-7 15.3% 21.9% 21.9% 14.7 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 11.9
12-8 12.2% 14.5% 14.5% 15.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 10.4
11-9 8.0% 11.4% 11.4% 15.4 0.5 0.4 7.1
10-10 4.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.5
9-11 2.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.2
8-12 1.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.8 7.8 1.9 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.1 20.0 50.0 30.0