Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#206
Expected Predictive Rating-16.0#343
Pace75.6#47
Improvement-0.9#253

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#187
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks-2.9#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#346
Freethrows+3.0#27
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#233
First Shot-0.5#190
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#252
Layups/Dunks+1.4#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement-1.0#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 13.2% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 45.3% 55.5% 32.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 84.6% 66.7%
Conference Champion 12.0% 16.2% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 2.5%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 3.9%
First Round9.4% 11.5% 6.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 413 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 114   @ Marshall L 88-96 21%     0 - 1 -1.6 -1.8 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 52-96 2%     0 - 2 -21.5 -16.5 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2021 266   George Washington L 63-74 64%     0 - 3 -16.6 -9.7 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 164   James Madison L 76-78 42%     0 - 4 -1.8 -1.1 -0.6
  Nov 24, 2021 291   Long Beach St. L 76-85 69%     0 - 5 -16.1 -9.0 -6.1
  Dec 02, 2021 275   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 55%    
  Dec 04, 2021 167   @ Cleveland St. L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 15, 2021 165   Akron W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 261   Tennessee Tech W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 22, 2021 63   @ North Carolina St. L 69-81 13%    
  Dec 30, 2021 267   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 300   Green Bay W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 06, 2022 254   Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 336   IUPUI W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 10, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-73 37%    
  Jan 13, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 278   @ Youngstown St. W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 254   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 28, 2022 167   Cleveland St. W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 30, 2022 275   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 228   Detroit Mercy W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 122   Oakland L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 300   @ Green Bay W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 11, 2022 267   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 13, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 18, 2022 122   @ Oakland L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 20, 2022 228   @ Detroit Mercy L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 278   Youngstown St. W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 81-73 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 13 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.9 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 3.6 1.3 0.2 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 3.0 0.9 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.4 7.5 9.7 10.6 11.6 11.2 10.5 8.6 6.1 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
20-2 96.6% 1.2    1.1 0.1
19-3 86.6% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
18-4 69.6% 3.0    2.2 0.7 0.1
17-5 48.1% 2.9    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
16-6 18.6% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-7 6.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-8 1.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 7.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 0.1
21-1 0.3% 48.4% 48.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
20-2 1.2% 37.0% 37.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
19-3 2.5% 36.6% 36.6% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.6
18-4 4.3% 28.1% 28.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 3.1
17-5 6.1% 24.4% 24.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 4.6
16-6 8.6% 18.4% 18.4% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 7.0
15-7 10.5% 13.6% 13.6% 15.8 0.3 1.2 9.1
14-8 11.2% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 1.3 9.9
13-9 11.6% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.5
12-10 10.6% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.0
11-11 9.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.5 9.2
10-12 7.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.3
9-13 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.4
8-14 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-15 2.6% 2.6
6-16 1.4% 1.4
5-17 0.8% 0.8
4-18 0.4% 0.4
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 7.2 89.0 0.0%