Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #84
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 #75
Pace 74.3 #45
Improvement +1.5 #120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #88 B- D+ A D D
Defense #88 C B+ C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.29 #59 -2.9 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.80 #112 +1.6 #94
Three Pointers 46% #71 1.08 #81 +4.3 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #89 +3.0 #90
Freethrows 0.25 #329 72% #191 0.18 #325
Second Chance 27.0% #282 0.98 #242 0.26 #282
Turnovers 12.3% #6
Total Offense +3.5 #88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.15 #155 -0.8 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #53 0.80 #253 -2.3 #336
Three Pointers 34% #345 1.02 #183 +3.4 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.3 #169
Freethrows 0.27 #93 69% #37 0.19 #60
Second Chance 26.3% #47 0.90 #35 0.24 #27
Turnovers 17.7% #120
Total Defense +3.2 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #304 -1.0% #93
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.0% #63 0.4% #198
Possession Length 15.3 #25 17.8 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #24 0.14 #84
Improvement +2.1 #78 -0.6 #224

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 7.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 6.4% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 10.9
.500 or above 37.2% 71.9% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 17.2% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 4.3% 18.7%
First Four0.9% 4.6% 0.7%
First Round1.0% 4.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 25 - 66 - 16
Quad 34 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Marist W 66 - 62 83% +4  1 - 0 +1 -1 F C- B +2 F+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 296 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 94% +4  2 - 0 -6 -2 B F D+ -3 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 46 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 42% -15  2 - 1 -10 -3 F B A- -7 C D- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Iowa L 62 - 81 13% -10  2 - 2 +0 -1 D- C A+ +1 D A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 243 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 90% +20  3 - 2 +22 +17 B+ A+ B +3 B- C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 34 Georgia L 77 - 78 24% -4  3 - 3 +13 +7 C C A+ +6 A- B+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 58 West Virginia W 78 - 68 40% +3  4 - 3 +19 +15 A+ D B+ +5 A- A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 197 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 87% +12  5 - 3 +16 +10 B F+ A+ +4 B A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 1 358 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  6 - 3 +5 +5 D+ D+ A+ -3 C- C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 53 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 48% +4  7 - 3 +12 +11 A- F A+ +1 A+ D- D-
 Fri, Dec 12 183 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 85% +7  8 - 3 +13 +8 B D- A+ +8 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 57 Creighton L 57 - 98 51% -21  8 - 4 0 - 1 -35 -18 D- F F+ -14 F A- B
 Sat, Dec 20 77 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 36% -2  9 - 4 1 - 1 +13 +7 B+ D D +6 C+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 7 Connecticut L 67 - 90 15% -18  9 - 5 1 - 2 -5 +2 B F+ A -6 D- B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 95 @DePaul L 77 - 86 42% -3  9 - 6 1 - 3 -0 +12 B+ C A+ -12 D- C D-
 Wed, Jan 7 96 @Marquette L 65 - 66 42% -5  9 - 7 1 - 4 +8 -4 C F D +12 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 67 Providence W 97 - 84 55% +11  10 - 7 2 - 4 +18 +10 B+ D A+ +6 A- A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 66 Butler W 89 - 75 55% +11  11 - 7 3 - 4 +19 +14 B A- A +5 A C B
 Wed, Jan 21 57 @Creighton L 93 - 94 29% -1  11 - 8 3 - 5 +11 +20 A+ C B+ -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 20 St. John's L 83 - 88 23% +3  11 - 9 3 - 6 +9 +10 A+ F A+ +0 C+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 52 @Seton Hall L 68 - 86 27% +2  11 - 10 3 - 7 -5 +4 B+ B- D- -8 C B- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 95 DePaul W 68 - 66 65% -7  12 - 10 4 - 7 +5 +5 B+ F+ A- -0 C- B- C
 Tue, Feb 3 7 @Connecticut L 65 - 82 5%
 Mon, Feb 9 20 @St. John's L 74 - 88 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 96 Marquette W 81 - 77 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 32 Villanova L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 66 @Butler L 78 - 83 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 67 @Providence L 85 - 90 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 77 Georgetown W 77 - 75 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 Seton Hall L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 32 @Villanova L 67 - 78 17%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7 +3 B- D+ A +3 C B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.6 1.6 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 8.4 4.8 0.4 14.9 6th
7th 0.3 8.1 8.7 0.8 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.0 4.4 12.5 2.1 0.0 19.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 11.4 4.9 0.1 17.9 9th
10th 0.3 6.1 6.7 0.4 13.5 10th
11th 2.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 6.5 11th
Total 2.3 11.4 23.4 27.2 20.7 10.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 71.4% 14.3% 57.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
11-9 0.7% 37.1% 2.1% 35.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 35.8%
10-10 3.5% 14.9% 1.0% 13.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 14.1%
9-11 10.8% 4.1% 1.3% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 10.4 2.8%
8-12 20.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.5 0.2%
7-13 27.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 27.1
6-14 23.4% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3
5-15 11.4% 11.4
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 0.4% 1.2% 10.8 98.5 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%