Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#97
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#68
Pace72.6#94
Improvement-0.4#204

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#116
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#31
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement+0.4#144

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#78
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#1
Layups/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#58
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement-0.8#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 12.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.3% 12.2% 3.3%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 45.2% 71.1% 42.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.4% 37.7% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 6.1% 15.0%
First Four2.2% 4.9% 1.8%
First Round3.3% 9.9% 2.5%
Second Round1.1% 3.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 15
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 46 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 157 Marist W 66-62 78%     1 - 0 +1.2 -1.3 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 6 312 Le Moyne W 74-69 94%     2 - 0 -6.8 -6.7 +0.0
  Mon, Nov 10 86 Santa Clara L 68-87 57%     2 - 1 -15.4 -5.3 -9.7
  Fri, Nov 14 18 @Iowa L 62-81 10%     2 - 2 +0.5 -1.6 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 18 217 Old Dominion W 99-69 87%     3 - 2 +23.5 +16.9 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 21 22 Georgia L 77-78 16%     3 - 3 +14.9 +8.1 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 23 62 West Virginia W 78-68 39%     4 - 3 +18.5 +13.0 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 87%     5 - 3 +14.4 +9.3 +3.8
  Mon, Dec 1 361 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +3.5 +5.7 -4.4
  Fri, Dec 5 67 Cincinnati W 79-74 51%     7 - 3 +10.2 +10.2 -0.2
  Fri, Dec 12 254 Missouri St. W 75-57 90%     8 - 3 +9.8 +7.3 +4.3
  Wed, Dec 17 36 Creighton L 57-98 33%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -30.8 -14.0 -14.7
  Sat, Dec 20 99 @Georgetown W 80-77 39%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +11.4 +5.5 +5.7
  Wed, Dec 31 7 Connecticut L 64-77 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 115 @DePaul L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 105 @Marquette L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 78 Providence W 83-82 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 50 Butler L 77-79 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 36 @Creighton L 69-80 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 19 St. John's L 73-81 23%    
  Wed, Jan 28 54 @Seton Hall L 66-73 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 115 DePaul W 75-70 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 7 @Connecticut L 61-80 4%    
  Mon, Feb 9 19 @St. John's L 70-84 11%    
  Sat, Feb 14 105 Marquette W 78-74 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 32 Villanova L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 50 @Butler L 74-82 24%    
  Tue, Feb 24 78 @Providence L 80-85 34%    
  Sat, Feb 28 99 Georgetown W 78-75 61%    
  Tue, Mar 3 54 Seton Hall L 69-70 47%    
  Sat, Mar 7 32 @Villanova L 64-75 15%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.6 7.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.3 7.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 18.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 4.4 6.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.6 1.1 0.1 7.7 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.7 7.3 11.3 15.5 16.5 15.5 11.6 8.4 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 14.3% 0.0    0.0
15-5 13.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 91.9% 5.4% 86.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4%
14-6 0.4% 85.0% 1.8% 83.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.7%
13-7 1.0% 67.5% 2.2% 65.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 66.8%
12-8 2.3% 46.1% 2.1% 44.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3 45.0%
11-9 5.1% 24.8% 1.6% 23.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 3.8 23.6%
10-10 8.4% 9.6% 0.6% 9.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 7.6 9.1%
9-11 11.6% 1.8% 0.5% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.4 1.4%
8-12 15.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0%
7-13 16.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 16.5
6-14 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5
5-15 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.3
4-16 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 7.3
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 0.4% 4.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.4 4.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%