Xavier
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#37
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#27
Pace70.2#157
Improvement+1.4#69

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#60
First Shot+4.7#45
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#192
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#74
Freethrows-1.0#248
Improvement+1.7#34

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#36
First Shot+9.7#6
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#336
Layups/Dunks+1.3#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#4
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
Freethrows+3.5#14
Improvement-0.3#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 11.9% 12.2% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 26.3% 26.7% 8.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.1% 71.5% 46.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.6% 69.1% 44.6%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 92.2% 92.6% 73.2%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 73.7% 53.1%
Conference Champion 8.2% 8.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 2.0% 2.6%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 5.7%
First Round68.1% 68.6% 42.8%
Second Round38.7% 39.0% 20.1%
Sweet Sixteen14.8% 15.0% 4.6%
Elite Eight6.0% 6.0% 1.5%
Final Four2.4% 2.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 36 - 117 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 185   Niagara W 63-60 91%     1 - 0 -1.2 -10.4 +9.3
  Nov 12, 2021 137   Kent St. W 73-59 86%     2 - 0 +13.0 +1.8 +11.8
  Nov 18, 2021 29   Ohio St. W 71-65 54%     3 - 0 +15.7 +1.4 +14.4
  Nov 21, 2021 251   Norfolk St. W 88-48 95%     4 - 0 +32.2 +5.0 +23.6
  Nov 24, 2021 58   Iowa St. L 70-82 62%     4 - 1 -4.2 +2.0 -6.1
  Nov 26, 2021 27   Virginia Tech W 59-58 41%     5 - 1 +14.2 +1.4 +13.0
  Dec 01, 2021 302   Central Michigan W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 05, 2021 33   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-71 36%    
  Dec 08, 2021 213   Ball St. W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 11, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 15, 2021 133   Morehead St. W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 71   Marquette W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 21, 2021 8   @ Villanova L 64-74 19%    
  Dec 28, 2021 15   Connecticut L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 04, 2022 134   @ Georgetown W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 07, 2022 103   @ Butler W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 12, 2022 8   Villanova L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 83   Creighton W 74-67 76%    
  Jan 19, 2022 85   @ DePaul W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 23, 2022 71   @ Marquette W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 26, 2022 54   Providence W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 83   @ Creighton W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 02, 2022 103   Butler W 69-59 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 85   DePaul W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 09, 2022 28   @ Seton Hall L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 16, 2022 61   St. John's W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 15   @ Connecticut L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 23, 2022 54   @ Providence L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 28   Seton Hall W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 02, 2022 61   @ St. John's W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 134   Georgetown W 77-65 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.3 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.0 4.3 1.5 0.1 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.9 5.7 3.2 0.6 0.1 16.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.5 5.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 3.0 4.9 7.1 9.2 11.5 12.4 12.1 12.0 10.0 7.4 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 97.2% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 81.0% 1.9    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 53.2% 2.2    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.4% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.8 2.5 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.1 0.0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.8 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.6 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.4% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.0% 99.7% 12.6% 87.1% 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.7%
13-7 12.0% 99.3% 9.5% 89.8% 7.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 12.1% 94.5% 6.6% 87.9% 8.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 94.1%
11-9 12.4% 86.1% 5.6% 80.6% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 85.3%
10-10 11.5% 66.6% 3.3% 63.3% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.9 65.5%
9-11 9.2% 34.8% 2.2% 32.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 6.0 33.4%
8-12 7.1% 9.8% 0.4% 9.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 6.4 9.4%
7-13 4.9% 3.3% 1.0% 2.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 2.3%
6-14 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.1% 7.8% 63.2% 7.3 1.1 2.3 3.7 4.9 6.1 8.3 9.8 10.3 8.8 7.7 5.6 2.3 0.1 0.0 28.9 68.6%