Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #99
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #66
Pace 73.5 #70
Improvement -0.3 #203

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #119 C+ D- D A+ D
Defense #83 C B- A B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.27 #73 -2.8 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #110 0.74 #191 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 45% #100 1.05 #139 +3.0 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.3 #144
Freethrows 14.2 #317 71% #231 10.1 #308
Second Chance 27.7% #259 0.94 #288 0.26 #290
Turnovers 11.8% #3
Total Offense +2.1 #119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.20 #218 -1.7 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.73 #163 -2.2 #324
Three Pointers 33% #350 1.05 #231 +3.6 #55
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #191 -0.3 #193
Freethrows 15.6 #104 70% #104 11.0 #84
Second Chance 25.6% #37 0.88 #28 0.23 #21
Turnovers 18.1% #105
Total Defense +3.4 #83

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2% #300 -1.4% #71
Shot Type Make % Effect 4.7% #111 2% #215
Possession Length 15.5 #47 17.5 #231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #37 0.15 #97
Improvement +0.6 #138 -1.0 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.6% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.7% 4.2% 1.5%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.5
.500 or above 38.5% 54.3% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 21.5% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 5.9% 21.5%
First Four1.6% 2.4% 1.0%
First Round2.0% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 25 - 56 - 15
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 46 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 156 Marist W 66-62 79%     -2.7   1 - 0 +1.1 -0.8 +2.1
  Thu, Nov 6 309 Le Moyne W 74-69 94%     4.0   2 - 0 -6.7 -5.8 -0.8
  Mon, Nov 10 66 Santa Clara L 68-87 50%     -14.7   2 - 1 -13.5 -5.7 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 19 @Iowa L 62-81 10%     -9.9   2 - 2 +0.6 -1.8 +2.5
  Tue, Nov 18 242 Old Dominion W 99-69 89%     19.7   3 - 2 +22.3 +16.3 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 21 21 Georgia L 77-78 16%     -4.0   3 - 3 +15.2 +8.3 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 23 64 West Virginia W 78-68 37%     2.9   4 - 3 +18.7 +13.0 +6.0
  Fri, Nov 28 211 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 86%     11.8   5 - 3 +14.8 +8.3 +5.1
  Mon, Dec 1 361 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     12.9   6 - 3 +3.4 +5.7 -4.4
  Fri, Dec 5 58 Cincinnati W 79-74 47%     3.6   7 - 3 +11.3 +10.5 +0.5
  Fri, Dec 12 225 Missouri St. W 75-57 87%     6.9   8 - 3 +11.3 +9.0 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 17 38 Creighton L 57-98 32%     -21.3   8 - 4 0 - 1 -30.9 -14.6 -14.2
  Sat, Dec 20 102 @Georgetown W 80-77 39%     -2.2   9 - 4 1 - 1 +11.3 +4.7 +6.4
  Wed, Dec 31 5 Connecticut L 67-90 11%     -17.6   9 - 5 1 - 2 -3.8 +2.3 -5.3
  Sat, Jan 3 107 @DePaul L 72-74 43%    
  Wed, Jan 7 108 @Marquette L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 80 Providence W 84-83 54%    
  Wed, Jan 14 50 Butler L 78-80 41%    
  Wed, Jan 21 38 @Creighton L 70-81 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 18 St. John's L 74-83 20%    
  Wed, Jan 28 54 @Seton Hall L 67-74 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 107 DePaul W 75-71 64%    
  Tue, Feb 3 5 @Connecticut L 62-82 4%    
  Mon, Feb 9 18 @St. John's L 71-86 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 108 Marquette W 79-75 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 34 Villanova L 68-73 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 50 @Butler L 75-83 22%    
  Tue, Feb 24 80 @Providence L 81-86 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 102 Georgetown W 79-76 61%    
  Tue, Mar 3 54 Seton Hall L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 34 @Villanova L 65-76 15%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.6 7.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 18.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 6.6 8.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 6.1 7.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.5 5.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.6 1.0 0.1 7.8 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 3.9 8.4 14.0 17.0 17.3 14.5 10.3 6.8 3.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 7.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.6% 55.7% 1.6% 54.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 55.0%
12-8 1.6% 39.8% 2.5% 37.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0 38.2%
11-9 3.8% 24.1% 1.3% 22.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.9 23.1%
10-10 6.8% 8.8% 0.3% 8.5% 10.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.2 8.6%
9-11 10.3% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.1 1.3%
8-12 14.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.1%
7-13 17.3% 17.3
6-14 17.0% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 16.9
5-15 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 14.0
4-16 8.4% 8.4
3-17 3.9% 3.9
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 0.3% 2.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1 2.7%