Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.3 #77
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #50
Pace 66.8 #250
Improvement -2.8 #320

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #32 B+ B+ A A- B-
Defense #196 C- B- C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.11 #232 +2.9 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.87 #49 +1.2 #111
Three Pointers 34% #311 1.27 #4 +1.0 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #57 +5.2 #57
Freethrows 19.2 #89 79% #27 15.1 #44
Second Chance 32.9% #114 1.30 #6 0.43 #27
Turnovers 13.8% #37
Total Offense +8.0 #32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.18 #201 +1.4 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #203 0.78 #228 -0.1 #199
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.06 #245 -3.0 #295
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.7 #235
Freethrows 16.5 #143 69% #70 11.4 #112
Second Chance 31.0% #187 1.08 #233 0.34 #218
Turnovers 15.4% #261
Total Defense -0.6 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #116 -0.2% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #56 3.6% #248
Possession Length 17.6 #204 17.9 #282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #341 0.15 #105
Improvement -3.7 #351 +0.9 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.1% 59.4% 53.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.2%
Conference Champion 80.4% 84.5% 64.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round58.0% 59.3% 53.0%
Second Round11.3% 12.2% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 39 - 311 - 4
Quad 412 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 206 @Navy W 97-68 75%     13.7   1 - 0 +29.3 +18.3 +8.8
  Tue, Nov 11 160 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 67%     17.9   2 - 0 +39.7 +25.2 +13.8
  Sat, Nov 15 261 Stony Brook W 86-79 92%     6.7   3 - 0 -1.7 +17.8 -18.8
  Tue, Nov 18 131 Rhode Island L 77-86 79%     -0.1   3 - 1 -10.1 +10.0 -20.6
  Fri, Nov 21 248 Green Bay W 73-67 87%     6.2   4 - 1 +0.9 +5.0 -3.3
  Sun, Nov 23 150 College of Charleston W 74-63 75%     8.7   5 - 1 +11.3 +6.9 +5.3
  Mon, Nov 24 64 Akron W 97-94 45%     5.6   6 - 1 +11.7 +29.6 -17.7
  Sun, Nov 30 183 @Vermont W 77-74 71%     2.8   7 - 1 +4.5 +12.2 -7.3
  Sun, Dec 7 207 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 88%     3.9   8 - 1 +8.3 +10.6 -1.3
  Wed, Dec 10 324 Albany W 93-82 94%     6.0   9 - 1 +1.1 +9.9 -9.2
  Mon, Dec 29 12 @Alabama L 78-102 10%     -18.7   9 - 2 -2.4 +12.6 -15.4
  Mon, Jan 5 239 @Brown W 70-53 80%     2.9   10 - 2 1 - 0 +15.4 +1.4 +14.0
  Sat, Jan 10 238 @Princeton W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 166 Cornell W 95-84 85%    
  Mon, Jan 19 138 Columbia W 83-74 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 217 @Penn W 84-76 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 230 Dartmouth W 87-73 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 193 Harvard W 80-67 88%    
  Fri, Feb 6 239 Brown W 78-63 92%    
  Mon, Feb 9 277 @Howard W 80-69 84%    
  Fri, Feb 13 230 @Dartmouth W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 193 @Harvard W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 217 Penn W 87-73 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 166 @Cornell W 92-87 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 138 @Columbia W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 238 Princeton W 81-66 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 7.8 17.5 23.6 20.4 9.5 80.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.5 2.9 0.5 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 7.2 13.6 20.4 24.2 20.4 9.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 9.5    9.5
13-1 100.0% 20.4    20.1 0.3
12-2 97.8% 23.6    21.5 2.1 0.0
11-3 85.8% 17.5    13.0 4.4 0.2
10-4 57.2% 7.8    3.6 3.4 0.7 0.0
9-5 22.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 80.4% 80.4 67.9 10.9 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 9.5% 72.4% 71.7% 0.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 4.0 0.9 0.0 2.6 2.4%
13-1 20.4% 67.9% 67.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.1 5.7 7.5 0.5 6.5 0.4%
12-2 24.2% 61.6% 61.6% 0.0% 12.0 2.2 10.7 2.0 0.0 9.3 0.0%
11-3 20.4% 55.2% 55.2% 12.2 0.6 7.5 3.0 0.2 9.1
10-4 13.6% 49.8% 49.8% 12.5 0.1 3.7 2.8 0.2 6.8
9-5 7.2% 44.8% 44.8% 12.7 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.3 4.0
8-6 3.0% 37.4% 37.4% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
7-7 1.3% 12.4% 12.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
6-8 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.4
5-9 0.1% 0.1
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 58.1% 58.0% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 12.6 31.9 10.6 0.9 0.0 41.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 100.0% 10.5 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.9 10.0 14.1 58.7 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 3.4% 11.0 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 0.9% 10.7 0.3 0.6