Yale
Ivy League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#92
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#115
Pace66.0#246
Improvement-1.2#318

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#107
First Shot+2.3#97
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#159
Layup/Dunks+3.6#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#126
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement+0.3#136

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#95
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#14
Layups/Dunks+0.8#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-1.5#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.3% 38.6% 33.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 98.9% 90.6%
Conference Champion 24.7% 34.0% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.3% 38.6% 33.2%
Second Round6.6% 7.4% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 18 - 6
Quad 48 - 217 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 161   Eastern Washington W 74-60 69%     1 - 0 +14.3 +0.0 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 80-51 97%     2 - 0 +11.8 +4.9 +8.4
  Nov 14, 2022 134   @ Hawaii W 62-59 OT 53%     3 - 0 +7.6 -8.6 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2022 146   Vermont W 73-44 74%     4 - 0 +27.5 +7.9 +22.8
  Nov 27, 2022 61   @ Colorado L 62-65 28%     4 - 1 +8.3 +0.7 +7.5
  Nov 30, 2022 269   Howard W 86-40 89%     5 - 1 +37.7 +15.8 +25.6
  Dec 03, 2022 313   @ Stony Brook W 77-72 84%     6 - 1 -0.4 +8.0 -8.0
  Dec 06, 2022 86   @ Butler L 61-71 38%     6 - 2 -1.5 -2.9 +0.8
  Dec 10, 2022 32   @ Kentucky L 59-69 18%     6 - 3 +5.0 +1.9 +1.5
  Dec 12, 2022 232   @ Fairfield W 77-64 73%     7 - 3 +12.1 +13.3 +0.1
  Dec 22, 2022 351   @ Monmouth W 76-44 92%     8 - 3 +22.0 +1.0 +20.8
  Dec 31, 2022 346   @ Columbia L 60-62 91%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -11.3 -12.9 +1.5
  Jan 06, 2023 275   Dartmouth L 77-81 90%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -12.6 -5.5 -6.7
  Jan 07, 2023 157   Harvard W 58-54 77%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +1.7 -10.2 +12.1
  Jan 13, 2023 105   @ Cornell L 82-94 45%     9 - 6 1 - 3 -5.3 +4.5 -9.4
  Jan 16, 2023 207   Brown W 81-78 82%     10 - 6 2 - 3 -1.5 +4.2 -5.9
  Jan 21, 2023 148   Penn W 70-63 75%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +5.3 +3.8 +2.6
  Jan 28, 2023 115   Princeton W 87-65 69%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +22.2 +28.4 -2.3
  Feb 03, 2023 157   @ Harvard W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 275   @ Dartmouth W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 346   Columbia W 79-59 97%    
  Feb 17, 2023 148   @ Penn W 72-70 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 115   @ Princeton L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 105   Cornell W 80-76 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 207   @ Brown W 69-65 65%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.0 13.5 6.2 24.7 1st
2nd 0.0 3.8 17.9 6.4 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 16.4 7.3 0.2 25.7 3rd
4th 0.2 7.0 5.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.1 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.4 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.7 4.0 13.3 25.5 30.3 20.0 6.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 6.2    4.9 1.3
10-4 67.3% 13.5    4.7 7.2 1.5
9-5 16.6% 5.0    0.2 1.5 2.4 0.9 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 9.8 10.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 6.2% 49.7% 49.5% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.1 0.4%
10-4 20.0% 43.2% 43.2% 12.7 0.2 2.9 4.7 0.8 0.0 11.4
9-5 30.3% 38.2% 38.2% 13.1 0.0 1.6 6.6 3.2 0.1 18.7
8-6 25.5% 32.5% 32.5% 13.5 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.9 0.3 17.2
7-7 13.3% 27.2% 27.2% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 9.7
6-8 4.0% 24.5% 24.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 3.0
5-9 0.7% 15.9% 15.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
4-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.8 6.7 16.5 10.6 1.7 0.1 63.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.2% 49.7% 12.0 0.1 10.4 27.5 11.1 0.7