Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#76
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#48
Pace66.9#252
Improvement-3.1#341

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#26
First Shot+7.5#23
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#113
Layup/Dunks+4.7#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+2.5#49
Improvement-2.3#335

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot-2.8#275
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#62
Layups/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#294
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement-0.9#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 1.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.9% 63.7% 56.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.0 11.2 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.5% 98.9%
Conference Champion 75.7% 83.3% 74.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round56.9% 63.3% 56.1%
Second Round11.3% 16.0% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.2% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 412 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 203 @Navy W 97-68 75%     1 - 0 +29.3 +18.6 +8.5
  Tue, Nov 11 160 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 66%     2 - 0 +40.0 +25.1 +14.1
  Sat, Nov 15 246 Stony Brook W 86-79 91%     3 - 0 -0.9 +18.3 -18.5
  Tue, Nov 18 119 Rhode Island L 77-86 75%     3 - 1 -8.9 +8.8 -18.2
  Fri, Nov 21 283 Green Bay W 73-67 90%     4 - 1 -0.6 +4.2 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 23 169 College of Charleston W 74-63 77%     5 - 1 +10.4 +6.0 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 59 Akron W 97-94 44%     6 - 1 +11.9 +29.0 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 30 178 @Vermont W 77-74 71%     7 - 1 +4.7 +12.2 -7.1
  Sun, Dec 7 200 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 88%     8 - 1 +8.6 +10.0 -0.4
  Wed, Dec 10 310 Albany W 93-82 92%     9 - 1 +2.4 +11.0 -9.1
  Mon, Dec 29 15 @Alabama L 82-95 11%    
  Mon, Jan 5 226 @Brown W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 248 @Princeton W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 159 Cornell W 92-82 83%    
  Mon, Jan 19 142 Columbia W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 240 @Penn W 84-75 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 247 Dartmouth W 87-72 92%    
  Sat, Jan 31 192 Harvard W 80-68 87%    
  Fri, Feb 6 226 Brown W 78-64 90%    
  Mon, Feb 9 265 @Howard W 81-71 82%    
  Fri, Feb 13 247 @Dartmouth W 84-75 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 192 @Harvard W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 240 Penn W 87-72 91%    
  Fri, Feb 27 159 @Cornell W 89-85 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 142 @Columbia W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 248 Princeton W 81-66 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 7.4 17.0 22.4 18.7 8.6 75.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.6 5.8 3.3 0.6 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.4 8.4 13.7 20.4 23.1 18.7 8.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 8.6    8.6
13-1 100.0% 18.7    18.4 0.2
12-2 97.2% 22.4    20.2 2.3 0.0
11-3 83.6% 17.0    12.2 4.6 0.3
10-4 53.9% 7.4    3.2 3.3 0.8 0.0
9-5 18.8% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 75.7% 75.7 62.8 11.0 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 8.6% 73.9% 72.7% 1.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.3 1.7 0.1 2.2 4.4%
13-1 18.7% 68.8% 68.4% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.7 7.2 0.8 0.0 5.8 1.1%
12-2 23.1% 61.7% 61.7% 12.0 0.0 2.2 9.7 2.2 0.1 8.8
11-3 20.4% 55.8% 55.8% 12.3 0.6 7.3 3.4 0.1 0.0 9.0
10-4 13.7% 48.8% 48.8% 12.5 0.1 3.5 2.8 0.4 7.0
9-5 8.4% 44.3% 44.3% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.7
8-6 4.4% 34.2% 34.2% 13.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9
7-7 1.8% 13.0% 13.0% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
6-8 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.7
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 56.9% 56.8% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 11.0 31.0 12.2 1.2 0.0 43.1 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 8.5 0.4 1.9 5.9 11.5 13.0 13.3 17.4 17.0 17.4 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 21.2% 10.8 3.8 17.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 15.8% 10.7 5.3 10.5