St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#57
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#77
Pace81.3#6
Improvement+2.2#30

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#27
First Shot+4.2#72
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#58
Layup/Dunks+0.3#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#104
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#330
Layups/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#76
Freethrows+0.3#173
Improvement+2.4#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.9% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 8.1% 11.0% 4.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.5% 43.1% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.7% 40.2% 23.0%
Average Seed 8.3 8.1 8.8
.500 or above 65.1% 75.6% 51.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 48.1% 35.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.2% 3.7%
First Four5.5% 5.8% 5.1%
First Round32.8% 40.2% 23.2%
Second Round17.0% 21.5% 11.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 7.3% 3.6%
Elite Eight2.3% 3.0% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 48 - 12
Quad 34 - 212 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 90-74 94%     1 - 0 +7.8 +17.1 -9.0
  Nov 13, 2023 55   Michigan L 73-89 60%     1 - 1 -9.6 -0.8 -8.4
  Nov 16, 2023 77   North Texas W 53-52 59%     2 - 1 +7.8 -7.6 +15.5
  Nov 17, 2023 70   Dayton L 81-88 55%     2 - 2 +0.8 +8.3 -7.3
  Nov 19, 2023 40   Utah W 91-82 43%     3 - 2 +19.9 +15.8 +3.3
  Nov 25, 2023 334   Holy Cross W 91-45 97%     4 - 2 +31.7 +12.9 +20.6
  Dec 01, 2023 102   @ West Virginia W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 06, 2023 243   Sacred Heart W 90-74 93%    
  Dec 10, 2023 107   Boston College W 82-77 68%    
  Dec 16, 2023 172   Fordham W 84-72 87%    
  Dec 20, 2023 43   Xavier W 84-83 55%    
  Dec 23, 2023 5   @ Connecticut L 73-86 12%    
  Dec 30, 2023 106   Hofstra W 84-76 77%    
  Jan 02, 2024 50   Butler W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 06, 2024 16   @ Villanova L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 10, 2024 47   Providence W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 13, 2024 15   @ Creighton L 76-85 20%    
  Jan 16, 2024 74   @ Seton Hall L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 20, 2024 6   Marquette L 79-85 29%    
  Jan 24, 2024 16   Villanova L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 31, 2024 43   @ Xavier L 81-86 34%    
  Feb 03, 2024 5   Connecticut L 76-83 28%    
  Feb 06, 2024 182   DePaul W 86-73 88%    
  Feb 10, 2024 6   @ Marquette L 76-88 14%    
  Feb 13, 2024 47   @ Providence L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 18, 2024 74   Seton Hall W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 21, 2024 142   @ Georgetown W 87-82 66%    
  Feb 25, 2024 15   Creighton L 79-82 39%    
  Feb 28, 2024 50   @ Butler L 79-83 37%    
  Mar 05, 2024 182   @ DePaul W 83-76 73%    
  Mar 09, 2024 142   Georgetown W 90-79 82%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.1 5.5 6.0 2.4 0.4 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.7 5.1 1.9 0.3 16.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.7 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 6.1 8.5 11.2 13.1 13.4 12.0 10.7 8.1 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 81.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 39.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.8% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.3% 99.1% 11.1% 88.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
13-7 5.4% 96.9% 8.3% 88.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.6%
12-8 8.1% 88.7% 7.1% 81.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 87.9%
11-9 10.7% 71.9% 5.6% 66.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.0 70.2%
10-10 12.0% 47.4% 4.4% 43.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 45.0%
9-11 13.4% 17.4% 3.2% 14.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.1 14.7%
8-12 13.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.5 1.4%
7-13 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
6-14 8.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
5-15 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.0
4-16 3.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-17 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.5% 4.2% 31.3% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.5 5.4 6.0 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 64.5 32.7%