Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#326
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#319
Pace67.4#241
Improvement-4.8#360

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#290
First Shot-6.4#341
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#59
Layup/Dunks+0.7#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#349
Freethrows-2.9#324
Improvement-2.1#328

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#338
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds-5.0#363
Layups/Dunks-1.8#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#204
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement-2.7#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 11.4% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.2% 18.6% 49.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 46 - 77 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 225 Appalachian St. W 82-66 39%     1 - 0 +9.2 +13.6 -3.2
  Sat, Nov 8 114 @Bradley L 54-85 7%     1 - 1 -24.6 -13.3 -12.0
  Thu, Nov 13 186 South Alabama L 64-66 22%     1 - 2 -3.8 -0.8 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82-59 80%     2 - 2 +4.4 +0.2 +4.0
  Thu, Nov 20 195 Northern Kentucky L 66-90 33%     2 - 3 -29.3 -7.6 -22.2
  Sat, Nov 22 99 @Marquette L 71-85 6%     2 - 4 -6.0 +1.6 -7.4
  Tue, Dec 2 289 @Loyola Chicago L 72-83 29%     2 - 5 -15.0 -1.0 -14.6
  Sun, Dec 7 34 @Saint Louis L 65-107 2%     2 - 6 -25.8 +0.8 -27.1
  Sat, Dec 13 239 @Stony Brook L 55-78 21%     2 - 7 -24.4 -13.2 -13.3
  Sat, Dec 20 323 @Northern Illinois L 73-76 39%    
  Mon, Dec 22 43 @Wisconsin L 64-89 1%    
  Tue, Dec 30 177 Ohio L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 167 Toledo L 74-80 29%    
  Tue, Jan 6 66 @Akron L 72-93 2%    
  Sat, Jan 10 132 Kent St. L 76-85 22%    
  Tue, Jan 13 103 @Miami (OH) L 68-85 6%    
  Tue, Jan 20 307 Ball St. W 69-68 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 249 @Western Michigan L 70-78 24%    
  Tue, Jan 27 224 Eastern Michigan L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 125 Bowling Green L 68-77 20%    
  Tue, Feb 3 154 @Massachusetts L 70-83 11%    
  Sat, Feb 14 323 Northern Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 224 @Eastern Michigan L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 249 Western Michigan L 73-75 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 132 @Kent St. L 73-88 9%    
  Sat, Feb 28 209 @Buffalo L 70-80 19%    
  Tue, Mar 3 66 Akron L 75-90 8%    
  Fri, Mar 6 307 @Ball St. L 66-71 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.3 0.3 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.7 5.7 1.5 0.1 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 5.2 7.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 16.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.8 6.8 8.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 20.9 12th
13th 1.4 5.0 8.4 7.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 25.1 13th
Total 1.4 5.1 10.2 15.0 16.9 16.6 13.2 9.6 6.1 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3
14-4 36.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 12.9% 12.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 3.3% 3.3
8-10 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
7-11 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 13.2% 13.2
5-13 16.6% 16.6
4-14 16.9% 16.9
3-15 15.0% 15.0
2-16 10.2% 10.2
1-17 5.1% 5.1
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%