Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #305
Pace 67.4 #220
Improvement +4.5 #28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D+ C C- D D+
Defense #273 C- F C- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #160 1.11 #236 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #57 0.80 #110 +3.2 #43
Three Pointers 33% #325 0.84 #355 -6.8 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #304 -4.0 #305
Freethrows 0.27 #293 70% #265 0.19 #303
Second Chance 27.5% #272 1.09 #92 0.30 #206
Turnovers 17.4% #224
Total Offense -4.5 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 1.20 #236 -3.7 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #283 0.71 #92 +1.7 #57
Three Pointers 39% #238 1.03 #203 +0.7 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #222 -1.3 #220
Freethrows 0.34 #307 69% #52 0.24 #268
Second Chance 35.0% #324 1.22 #355 0.43 #359
Turnovers 15.8% #232
Total Defense -3.1 #273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #290 1.5% #313
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #295 1.1% #206
Possession Length 18.4 #294 16.7 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.21 #303
Improvement -0.3 #200 +4.8 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 5.1% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 11.2% 29.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 46 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 36% +12  1 - 0 +12 +16 A+ C F+ -2 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 8 121 @Bradley L 54 - 85 11% -14  1 - 1 -25 -16 F D D -10 F C C
 Thu, Nov 13 196 South Alabama L 64 - 66 30% -3  1 - 2 -4 +0 F+ B- C -5 A- F C
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 88% +13  2 - 2 +3 -1 F B C+ +4 A+ F F+
 Thu, Nov 20 190 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 40% -13  2 - 3 -29 -9 D- A F -21 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 96 @Marquette L 71 - 85 7% -5  2 - 4 -5 +1 D F A+ -7 F+ C C-
 Tue, Dec 2 279 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 35% -2  2 - 5 -15 +0 C+ C D- -16 C F F
 Sun, Dec 7 24 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 1% -23  2 - 6 -23 +3 B C D- -26 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 219 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 24% -16  2 - 7 -23 -13 F D+ B+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 308 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 43% +10  2 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +3 D A+ D -10 C+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  2 - 9 -10 -3 D D- A- -9 F A- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 200 Ohio L 64 - 80 42% -5  2 - 10 0 - 2 -22 -18 F+ F D -2 B C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 160 Toledo L 75 - 78 33% +5  2 - 11 0 - 3 -6 -2 D+ D A+ -4 B+ C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 61 @Akron L 69 - 82 4% -10  2 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -2 C+ F F +1 F+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 144 Kent St. W 87 - 85 30% +1  3 - 12 1 - 4 -0 +10 D A+ A+ -10 B+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 13 92 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 7% -17  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -10 D- F F+ -20 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 298 Ball St. L 67 - 68 63% -5  3 - 14 1 - 6 -12 +2 B D+ D+ -15 F+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 275 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 34% -3  3 - 15 1 - 7 -15 -10 F C D- -6 B- D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 237 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 48% +9  4 - 15 2 - 7 +28 +18 A+ C A- +7 C C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 151 Bowling Green W 62 - 59 31% -4  5 - 15 3 - 7 +0 -11 F A C +12 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 171 @Massachusetts L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 305 @Louisiana L 65 - 67 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 308 Northern Illinois W 73 - 69 64%
 Tue, Feb 17 237 @Eastern Michigan L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 275 Western Michigan W 76 - 74 57%
 Tue, Feb 24 144 @Kent St. L 71 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 @Buffalo L 71 - 79 23%
 Tue, Mar 3 61 Akron L 72 - 86 10%
 Fri, Mar 6 298 @Ball St. L 67 - 70 40%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -8 -5 D+ C C- -3 C- F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.6 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 2.5 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 1.5 6.6 1.7 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 1.0 10.9 5.8 0.2 17.8 9th
10th 0.1 7.1 11.2 0.8 19.3 10th
11th 2.4 13.1 3.1 0.0 18.7 11th
12th 0.3 9.3 6.3 0.2 16.0 12th
13th 4.4 6.3 0.8 0.0 11.4 13th
Total 4.6 18.0 28.3 27.0 15.0 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 1.2% 1.2
8-10 5.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
6-12 27.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.9
5-13 28.3% 28.3
4-14 18.0% 18.0
3-15 4.6% 4.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%