Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.5 #15
Expected Predictive Rating +18.5 #17
Pace 68.2 #201
Improvement +2.6 #76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #27 B+ B+ B+ B- C
Defense #13 A+ A- D A B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.38 #9 +5.2 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.74 #196 +0.4 #161
Three Pointers 38% #240 1.12 #48 +0.6 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #33 +6.1 #33
Freethrows 0.32 #126 76% #54 0.24 #87
Second Chance 32.0% #141 1.26 #6 0.40 #37
Turnovers 13.4% #22
Total Offense +9.1 #27

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 0.96 #14 +7.0 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.59 #6 +1.2 #97
Three Pointers 46% #47 0.80 #3 +2.4 #90
1st FG Attempt 0.81 #3 +10.6 #3
Freethrows 0.22 #12 67% #12 0.15 #8
Second Chance 26.2% #44 0.81 #6 0.21 #8
Turnovers 14.5% #308
Total Defense +9.4 #13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #208 -1.4% #67
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.2% #27 -19.6% #3
Possession Length 16.3 #83 18.5 #334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #78 0.10 #13
Improvement +3.9 #18 -1.3 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 9.8% 16.0% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 53.3% 69.1% 41.6%
Top 6 Seed 90.1% 96.5% 85.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 4.4 3.9 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 6.4% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round88.0% 91.7% 85.2%
Sweet Sixteen49.8% 56.4% 44.9%
Elite Eight22.0% 25.6% 19.3%
Final Four9.5% 11.3% 8.2%
Championship Game4.1% 4.9% 3.5%
National Champion1.7% 2.2% 1.3%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 86 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 28 - 016 - 10
Quad 33 - 020 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 254 Green Bay W 94 - 51 98% +23  1 - 0 +35 +21 A+ D A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 29 @North Carolina L 74 - 87 52% -2  1 - 1 +5 +7 A A- F -2 D- A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 197 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77 - 46 98% +19  2 - 1 +26 +3 A+ C+ F +22 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 214 Princeton W 76 - 57 98% +6  3 - 1 +13 -0 C+ D F +13 A+ B- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 3 Duke L 66 - 78 31% -3  3 - 2 +12 +9 C+ A+ A+ +2 A B D-
 Mon, Nov 24 82 Notre Dame W 71 - 61 86% +6  4 - 2 +17 +6 B- B+ C+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 68 Syracuse W 71 - 60 83% +7  5 - 2 +19 +7 C+ A+ F+ +13 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 19 Tennessee W 81 - 76 54% -3  6 - 2 +23 +18 B B A+ +4 A- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 7 Connecticut L 56 - 61 52% +2  6 - 3 +13 -0 C D- B+ +13 A+ C A-
 Sun, Dec 7 54 Missouri W 80 - 60 86% +8  7 - 3 +27 +14 B- A+ A- +14 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 21 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 OT 46% +1  8 - 3 +20 +7 B- D A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 154 Towson W 73 - 49 97% +14  9 - 3 +21 +8 C- A+ B- +15 A+ B- C
 Mon, Dec 22 116 Davidson W 90 - 61 95% +20  10 - 3 +29 +14 A+ A+ D +14 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 48 @Central Florida L 75 - 81 65% -2  10 - 4 0 - 1 +9 +8 D+ A- C+ +1 A B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 47 TCU W 104 - 100 OT 82% -4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +13 +18 A B+ A+ -6 D+ D B+
 Sat, Jan 10 58 @West Virginia L 75 - 86 72% -1  11 - 5 1 - 2 +1 +14 B- B A+ -14 F+ D+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 5 Iowa St. W 84 - 63 51% +15  12 - 5 2 - 2 +39 +27 A+ B- A+ +14 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 16 44 Baylor W 80 - 62 82% +11  13 - 5 3 - 2 +27 +14 A D- A+ +13 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 83 @Colorado W 75 - 69 80% +4  14 - 5 4 - 2 +16 +7 C A D+ +9 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 24 85 @Kansas St. W 86 - 62 80% +5  15 - 5 5 - 2 +34 +24 B A+ B+ +11 A+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 14 BYU W 90 - 82 61% +13  16 - 5 6 - 2 +24 +24 A+ D+ A+ -0 B A+ F+
 Mon, Feb 2 18 @Texas Tech L 75 - 77 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 104 Utah W 86 - 69 95%
 Mon, Feb 9 2 Arizona L 76 - 79 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 5 @Iowa St. L 71 - 77 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 56 @Oklahoma St. W 83 - 77 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 53 Cincinnati W 75 - 64 86%
 Mon, Feb 23 4 Houston L 69 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 2 @Arizona L 73 - 82 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 76 @Arizona St. W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 Kansas St. W 86 - 71 92%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18 +9 B+ B+ B+ +9 A+ A- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.4 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 6.5 1.5 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 11.1 3.7 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 12.1 7.7 0.2 22.3 4th
5th 1.3 8.8 9.9 0.8 20.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 4.5 8.1 1.8 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.7 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.3 10.5 21.2 27.1 22.0 11.4 3.5 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 57.4% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 9.0% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 18.8% 81.3% 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.2 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.4% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.9 0.9 2.9 4.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.0% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.6 0.4 2.2 7.7 8.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 27.1% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 4.4 0.1 0.7 4.6 9.3 8.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 21.2% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 5.3 0.1 1.0 3.7 7.4 6.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.5% 99.9% 3.2% 96.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.8 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 3.3% 99.6% 2.8% 96.7% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-10 0.6% 96.4% 0.9% 95.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.3%
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 8.5% 91.5% 4.4 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 12.0 68.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 33.3 56.7 10.0