Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #153
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #149
Pace 71.7 #99
Improvement -2.3 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 C B- D+ D D
Defense #166 C+ C+ C D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #354 1.29 #60 -3.2 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #83 0.71 #255 +1.2 #107
Three Pointers 45% #102 1.05 #120 +2.8 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #145 +0.9 #144
Freethrows 0.25 #327 74% #115 0.19 #308
Second Chance 32.8% #118 1.11 #73 0.36 #76
Turnovers 18.5% #274
Total Offense +0.3 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #297 1.15 #169 +2.3 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.75 #178 -1.0 #268
Three Pointers 42% #144 0.99 #141 +0.0 #183
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #131 +1.3 #132
Freethrows 0.36 #315 71% #115 0.25 #302
Second Chance 32.5% #266 0.88 #26 0.29 #115
Turnovers 16.9% #184
Total Defense -0.1 #166

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 -1.2% #77
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #104 -1.4% #154
Possession Length 15.8 #47 17.8 #278
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.18 #220
Improvement -1.2 #252 -1.1 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 19.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 98.3% 90.5%
Conference Champion 15.5% 18.3% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.6% 19.2% 11.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 412 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 43% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 B+ C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 159 @Toledo W 85 - 73 39% -1  2 - 0 +15 +10 A+ D D+ +5 B- B+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 193 Elon W 96 - 89 70% +6  3 - 0 +2 +9 B+ A+ D+ -8 C C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 25 @Virginia L 78 - 104 5% -20  3 - 1 -7 +7 C- A+ D- -12 C- D+ D-
 Thu, Nov 20 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 89% +5  4 - 1 +14 +10 A+ F C+ +2 A- C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 301 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 85% +5  5 - 1 -2 +0 B+ F+ C -1 B+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 179 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 66% -17  5 - 2 -27 -15 F C+ F+ -10 F A B
 Wed, Dec 3 117 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 28% -1  5 - 3 +5 +7 C- A+ F+ -2 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 197 @Ohio L 81 - 88 48% -6  5 - 4 -6 +5 C- B C+ -12 D C+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 157 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 62% +7  6 - 4 +13 +6 D+ A- A+ +7 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 145 Wright St. W 76 - 74 58% -1  7 - 4 -0 +9 C+ A- C -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 141 @Troy L 63 - 70 34% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -3 -8 F D+ D +5 A B+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 269 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 81% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +3 C+ A D- -8 D D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 173 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 66% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +3 +15 A+ F+ B+ -12 D D- C-
 Wed, Jan 7 205 @James Madison W 66 - 64 49% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +2 +0 F B+ B+ +2 A- C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 269 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 62% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 -3 D C+ F -7 B F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 238 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 77% -5  10 - 7 3 - 3 -9 +9 A- D+ A- -18 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 205 James Madison W 77 - 72 71% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 -1 +1 D B+ F -2 B- F+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 360 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 94% +28  12 - 7 5 - 3 +37 +27 A+ A+ D+ +7 A+ C- D+
 Wed, Jan 28 259 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 60% -4  12 - 8 5 - 4 -7 -3 D F+ A+ -4 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 168 @Arkansas St. W 70 - 61 42% +4  13 - 8 6 - 4 +11 +5 C- B F+ +7 A+ A- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 251 Southern Miss W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 90 Miami (OH) L 80 - 83 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 243 @Old Dominion W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 260 @Georgia Southern W 82 - 79 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 196 South Alabama W 73 - 68 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 173 @Appalachian St. L 68 - 70 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 238 @Coastal Carolina W 75 - 73 56%
 Tue, Feb 24 243 Old Dominion W 80 - 72 77%
 Fri, Feb 27 260 Georgia Southern W 85 - 76 79%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 7 +0 +0 C B- D+ +0 C+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 8.0 3.7 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 4.1 14.5 6.1 0.5 25.3 2nd
3rd 1.1 11.9 6.2 0.3 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 5.0 8.3 0.5 13.8 4th
5th 0.4 8.0 1.3 9.7 5th
6th 1.9 3.6 0.1 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 3.7 0.7 4.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 1.0 0.5 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.0 18.3 26.0 24.7 14.3 4.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 87.3% 3.7    2.4 1.3 0.0
13-5 55.6% 8.0    2.7 4.1 1.2 0.0
12-6 14.2% 3.5    0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1
11-7 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 5.4 6.5 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.2% 40.8% 40.8% 13.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.5
13-5 14.3% 34.9% 34.9% 13.5 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.3 9.3
12-6 24.7% 23.1% 23.1% 13.8 0.0 1.8 3.0 0.9 19.0
11-7 26.0% 13.6% 13.6% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.8 0.0 22.5
10-8 18.3% 6.9% 6.9% 14.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 17.1
9-9 9.0% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.7
8-10 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 13.7 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.7 39.2 50.6 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%