Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Sun Belt
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#187
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#108
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 10.0% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 60.1% 77.1% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 74.7% 58.9%
Conference Champion 8.3% 12.0% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.5% 3.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.0% 10.0% 5.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 173   @ Massachusetts L 73-77 36%    
  Nov 08, 2025 180   @ Toledo L 75-78 38%    
  Nov 12, 2025 228   Elon W 72-67 67%    
  Nov 15, 2025 46   @ Virginia L 56-73 7%    
  Nov 20, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-65 98%    
  Nov 23, 2025 361   Mercyhurst W 76-59 93%    
  Nov 26, 2025 188   Lipscomb W 72-69 60%    
  Dec 03, 2025 118   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-75 25%    
  Dec 06, 2025 145   @ Ohio L 73-79 31%    
  Dec 10, 2025 156   Western Kentucky W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 13, 2025 191   Wright St. W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 20, 2025 130   @ Troy L 66-73 28%    
  Dec 31, 2025 284   Georgia St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 03, 2026 201   Appalachian St. W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 07, 2026 129   @ James Madison L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 10, 2026 284   @ Georgia St. W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 14, 2026 275   Coastal Carolina W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 17, 2026 129   James Madison L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 22, 2026 348   Louisiana Monroe W 78-65 86%    
  Jan 24, 2026 163   South Alabama W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 28, 2026 193   @ Texas St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 31, 2026 140   @ Arkansas St. L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 04, 2026 281   Southern Miss W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 11, 2026 200   @ Old Dominion L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 14, 2026 249   @ Georgia Southern L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 19, 2026 201   @ Appalachian St. L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 21, 2026 275   @ Coastal Carolina W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 24, 2026 200   Old Dominion W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 27, 2026 249   Georgia Southern W 78-72 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 8.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.5 1.4 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.2 2.1 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.2 1.0 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 1.3 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.4 11.2 11.8 11.1 9.9 8.0 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.8% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 91.0% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 64.9% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.6% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.6% 51.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7%
17-1 0.7% 46.7% 46.1% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1%
16-2 2.0% 38.1% 38.1% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.5% 29.1% 29.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.5
14-4 6.0% 27.3% 27.3% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.4
13-5 8.0% 17.9% 17.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.6
12-6 9.9% 9.4% 9.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.0
11-7 11.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 10.7
10-8 11.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.7
9-9 11.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1
8-10 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-11 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 4.6% 4.6
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 100.0