Queens
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #174
Pace 70.7 #132
Improvement +0.5 #164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 B- C+ C C B-
Defense #311 D C D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.23 #104 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #317 0.84 #61 -1.9 #277
Three Pointers 48% #45 1.01 #193 +3.4 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #100 +2.7 #102
Freethrows 0.30 #199 76% #74 0.23 #155
Second Chance 30.5% #187 1.12 #91 0.34 #130
Turnovers 16.2% #163
Total Offense +2.9 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #41 1.18 #205 -3.8 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #284 0.77 #200 +1.2 #102
Three Pointers 39% #246 1.15 #335 -1.3 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 0.33 #269 72% #148 0.23 #259
Second Chance 34.1% #310 0.97 #77 0.33 #212
Turnovers 14.1% #316
Total Defense -4.8 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #70 1.7% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #117 5.8% #286
Possession Length 16.2 #73 18.1 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #191 0.18 #224
Improvement -2.1 #299 +2.6 #47

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 22.6% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 94.9% 97.6% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 42.3% 50.2% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round20.9% 22.4% 17.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 418 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 125 Winthrop L 74 - 81 35% -2  0 - 1 -5 -1 D B F -4 A- F C-
 Sat, Nov 8 34 @Villanova L 74 - 94 5% -12  0 - 2 -3 +11 A+ F F+ -14 C+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 115 @Duquesne L 81 - 87 OT 22% -9  0 - 3 +0 -4 C F D +5 C+ A- C
 Sat, Nov 15 278 Sacred Heart W 81 - 64 77% +13  1 - 3 +7 +2 B+ C- F +6 B- A+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 305 UNC Greensboro W 101 - 94 82% +8  2 - 3 -4 +22 A+ B- A- -27 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 159 @Furman L 79 - 90 31% -11  2 - 4 -8 +17 C+ A- A+ -26 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 28 21 @Virginia L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 5 -5 +11 C A+ D -18 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 107 - 74 95% +14  3 - 5 +12 +19 A+ B+ C -9 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 359 South Carolina St. W 102 - 78 92% +19  4 - 5 +6 +19 B C A+ -13 D- F D+
 Sun, Dec 14 66 @Wake Forest L 73 - 111 11% -19  4 - 6 -26 +5 B D+ B -30 F D C-
 Tue, Dec 16 19 @Arkansas L 80 - 108 3% -20  4 - 7 -8 +4 B- C+ F -9 D F A
 Mon, Dec 29 26 @Auburn L 65 - 106 4% -30  4 - 8 -22 -5 F C+ C- -16 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 260 Eastern Kentucky W 91 - 89 73% +1  5 - 8 1 - 0 -6 +11 C A- A+ -18 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Bellarmine W 98 - 76 81% +10  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +12 B- B- C- -1 F+ A- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 284 @Jacksonville W 77 - 51 59% +15  7 - 8 3 - 0 +22 +9 A+ F D+ +15 A C- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 348 @North Florida W 89 - 82 76% +2  8 - 8 4 - 0 -2 +3 D+ B C -5 D+ C F
 Thu, Jan 15 234 @Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 74 47% +6  9 - 8 5 - 0 +10 +8 D+ C A+ +2 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 329 @Stetson W 87 - 81 71% +8  10 - 8 6 - 0 -2 +11 C+ D A+ -12 F+ D+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 330 North Alabama W 87 - 62 86% +10  11 - 8 7 - 0 +11 +9 B B D- +3 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 328 @West Georgia L 66 - 74 70% -4  11 - 9 7 - 1 -15 -8 F B- F+ -8 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 233 Central Arkansas W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 302 @Bellarmine W 84 - 81 62%
 Thu, Feb 5 284 Jacksonville W 78 - 70 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 348 North Florida W 96 - 83 89%
 Wed, Feb 11 177 Austin Peay W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 Lipscomb W 82 - 80 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 330 @North Alabama W 82 - 76 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 328 West Georgia W 86 - 74 86%
 Wed, Feb 25 260 @Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 81 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 @Central Arkansas L 78 - 79 47%
Totals 18 - 12 14 - 4 -2 +3 B- C+ C -5 D C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.0 10.3 15.9 10.4 2.5 42.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 10.7 11.6 3.5 0.1 29.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.4 7.8 7.3 1.9 0.1 19.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.2 0.3 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.8 13.7 21.3 23.8 19.5 10.6 2.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5
16-2 98.6% 10.4    9.0 1.4 0.0
15-3 81.5% 15.9    9.7 5.6 0.6
14-4 43.4% 10.3    3.6 5.0 1.6 0.1
13-5 13.9% 3.0    0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.3% 42.3 25.2 13.5 3.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.5% 34.8% 34.8% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.6
16-2 10.6% 32.1% 32.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.0 7.2
15-3 19.5% 25.9% 25.9% 14.7 0.1 1.6 3.0 0.3 14.4
14-4 23.8% 22.4% 22.4% 15.0 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.0 18.5
13-5 21.3% 17.8% 17.8% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.1 17.5
12-6 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 15.4 0.1 0.9 0.9 11.9
11-7 5.8% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 5.2
10-8 2.2% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0
9-9 0.5% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 14.8 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.4 7.6 49.7 42.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%