IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.0	#288
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#327
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.8	#254

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.2	#305

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.1	14.8

.500 or above	20.8%	27.8%	9.7%
.500 or above in Conference	25.3%	30.5%	17.0%
Conference Champion	1.4%	1.8%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	17.3%	13.6%	23.3%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 7	11 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	290	Maine	W	66-63	62%
Nov 15, 2025	92	@ Yale	L	61-77	7%
Nov 20, 2025	168	Brown	L	64-67	39%
Nov 24, 2025	219	Pacific	L	66-70	37%
Nov 28, 2025	136	@ Loyola Marymount	L	62-74	15%
Dec 06, 2025	115	@ Duquesne	L	59-72	12%
Dec 09, 2025	265	Columbia	W	75-74	55%
Dec 13, 2025	299	Central Michigan	W	69-66	62%
Dec 17, 2025	302	Albany	W	71-67	63%
Dec 21, 2025	237	@ Marist	L	58-64	31%
Dec 29, 2025	236	@ Hampton	L	63-69	31%
Dec 31, 2025	229	@ William & Mary	L	71-77	30%
Jan 03, 2026	351	N.C. A&T	W	74-66	76%
Jan 08, 2026	227	@ Drexel	L	59-65	30%
Jan 10, 2026	118	UNC Wilmington	L	64-71	28%
Jan 15, 2026	178	Hofstra	L	61-64	41%
Jan 17, 2026	123	College of Charleston	L	69-75	30%
Jan 22, 2026	226	@ Northeastern	L	65-71	29%
Jan 29, 2026	203	@ Campbell	L	62-70	26%
Jan 31, 2026	228	@ Elon	L	64-70	30%
Feb 05, 2026	211	Monmouth	L	68-69	47%
Feb 07, 2026	226	Northeastern	L	68-69	48%
Feb 12, 2026	131	@ Towson	L	59-71	16%
Feb 16, 2026	227	Drexel	L	62-63	49%
Feb 21, 2026	236	Hampton	W	66-65	50%
Feb 26, 2026	211	@ Monmouth	L	65-72	28%
Feb 28, 2026	178	@ Hofstra	L	58-67	24%
Mar 03, 2026	131	Towson	L	62-68	31%
Projected Record						10 - 18	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0				2.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.1	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0					3.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.2	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.0						4.2	4th
5th									0.0	1.3	2.3	1.2	0.1	0.0							5.0	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	2.9	1.7	0.2	0.0								6.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.8	3.2	2.7	0.4	0.0									7.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	3.1	3.8	0.9	0.0										8.5	8th
9th					0.0	0.5	3.3	4.8	1.5	0.1											10.2	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.6	3.0	5.0	2.3	0.2												11.1	10th
11th			0.1	1.1	3.9	5.3	2.9	0.4													13.7	11th
12th		0.4	2.5	4.9	5.4	2.6	0.4	0.0													16.2	12th
13th	0.9	2.4	3.6	2.6	1.1	0.2	0.0														10.8	13th

Total	0.9	2.9	6.1	8.6	11.0	11.7	12.2	11.5	9.8	8.1	5.9	4.6	3.1	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	87.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
15-3	70.8%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.4%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	15.6%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		49.7%	49.7%		11.5											0.0			0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		25.2%	25.2%		11.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
16-2	0.2%		26.8%	26.8%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2
15-3	0.5%		18.9%	18.9%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4
14-4	1.0%		15.9%	15.9%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.8
13-5	1.7%		12.7%	12.7%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.5
12-6	3.1%		5.9%	5.9%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.0
11-7	4.6%		4.5%	4.5%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.4
10-8	5.9%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	5.8
9-9	8.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.0
8-10	9.8%		0.7%	0.7%		17.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7
7-11	11.5%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	11.5
6-12	12.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
5-13	11.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
4-14	11.0%																							11.0
3-15	8.6%																							8.6
2-16	6.1%																							6.1
1-17	2.9%																							2.9
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	14.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%