Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#239
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Pace63.8#318
Improvement-1.9#308

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#235
First Shot-1.7#219
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks-5.1#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#38
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement-3.3#358

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#241
First Shot-4.0#310
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#46
Layups/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#240
Freethrows-3.1#339
Improvement+1.3#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 40.5% 59.9% 34.1%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 42.8% 32.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 7.8% 12.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round1.6% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 335 Maine W 71-60 81%     1 - 0 -2.8 -4.0 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 78 @Yale L 79-86 9%     1 - 1 +3.4 +13.8 -11.1
  Thu, Nov 20 222 Brown W 80-70 59%     2 - 1 +3.4 +11.4 -7.6
  Mon, Nov 24 138 Pacific L 58-86 29%     2 - 2 -26.7 -10.8 -17.2
  Tue, Nov 25 259 Bethune-Cookman W 61-54 54%     3 - 2 +1.5 -7.8 +10.0
  Fri, Nov 28 145 @Loyola Marymount W 71-68 21%     4 - 2 +7.0 +6.1 +1.0
  Sat, Dec 6 140 @Duquesne L 75-84 21%     4 - 3 -4.7 +4.7 -9.6
  Tue, Dec 9 133 Columbia W 77-73 OT 38%     5 - 3 +2.7 -5.4 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 13 326 Central Michigan W 78-55 79%     6 - 3 +10.2 +5.4 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 306 Albany L 55-71 74%     6 - 4 -27.2 -19.5 -8.9
  Sun, Dec 21 163 @Marist L 62-69 25%    
  Mon, Dec 29 227 @Hampton L 65-68 38%    
  Wed, Dec 31 120 @William & Mary L 71-81 17%    
  Sat, Jan 3 304 N.C. A&T W 74-68 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 287 @Drexel L 66-67 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 108 UNC Wilmington L 66-71 32%    
  Thu, Jan 15 115 Hofstra L 66-71 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 185 College of Charleston W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 212 @Northeastern L 67-71 36%    
  Thu, Jan 29 229 @Campbell L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 180 @Elon L 71-77 29%    
  Thu, Feb 5 237 Monmouth W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 212 Northeastern W 70-68 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 137 @Towson L 61-70 22%    
  Mon, Feb 16 287 Drexel W 69-64 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 227 Hampton W 68-65 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 237 @Monmouth L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 115 @Hofstra L 63-74 16%    
  Tue, Mar 3 137 Towson L 64-67 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.0 2.2 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.2 0.9 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.6 1.7 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 2.7 0.3 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 7.0 10.1 13.1 14.3 14.7 11.8 9.7 6.5 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.5% 0.1    0.1
15-3 77.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 53.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 19.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 42.9% 42.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 9.0% 9.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 13.2% 13.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.1% 9.3% 9.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-6 3.7% 5.7% 5.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-7 6.5% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
10-8 9.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4
9-9 11.8% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6
8-10 14.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.6
7-11 14.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.2
6-12 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 98.3 0.0%