Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #219
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #165
Pace 63.2 #322
Improvement +2.6 #75

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 C D C- D- C+
Defense #233 C- B- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 0.98 #348 -5.1 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #261 0.85 #56 -0.7 #215
Three Pointers 48% #38 1.10 #68 +5.8 #28
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #177 +0.0 #178
Freethrows 0.25 #330 70% #255 0.17 #336
Second Chance 29.3% #223 0.86 #347 0.25 #302
Turnovers 17.5% #234
Total Offense -1.8 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.20 #247 -0.5 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.64 #21 +1.5 #68
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.11 #319 -2.9 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #242 -1.9 #242
Freethrows 0.30 #171 72% #189 0.21 #167
Second Chance 31.0% #194 0.91 #44 0.28 #97
Turnovers 15.3% #262
Total Defense -1.5 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #159 0.2% #184
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #181 3.6% #249
Possession Length 18.7 #321 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #343 0.17 #194
Improvement +1.1 #125 +1.5 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 84.8% 93.7% 71.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 93.0% 69.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.7% 4.5% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 76 - 10
Quad 410 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 346 Maine W 71 - 60 86% +6  1 - 0 -4 -4 D F A+ +1 B- B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 79 @Yale L 79 - 86 11% -7  1 - 1 +3 +15 A+ B- D- -13 F+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 20 280 Brown W 80 - 70 73% +9  2 - 1 +0 +11 B B+ A- -10 F D C
 Mon, Nov 24 124 Pacific L 58 - 86 29% -17  2 - 2 -26 -11 F+ D- D -16 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 235 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 53% -2  3 - 2 +3 -6 D- D- F +10 A+ A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 169 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 30% +6  4 - 2 +5 +4 B- D+ B- +1 C+ D- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 120 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 20% -8  4 - 3 -3 +6 C- C A+ -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 182 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 55% +8  5 - 3 -1 -8 F+ B+ F +7 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 294 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 76% +16  6 - 3 +12 +8 A+ A+ F +7 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 315 Albany L 55 - 71 81% -8  6 - 4 -29 -20 F F A- -10 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 164 @Marist L 51 - 70 28% -13  6 - 5 -16 -13 F F C- -5 C D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 251 @Hampton L 59 - 62 46% +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -5 -8 B- F F +2 C D C-
 Wed, Dec 31 149 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 25% -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -15 -10 F+ F C -7 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 281 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 74% +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 +9 B+ C- C+ -17 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 205 @Drexel L 37 - 56 36% -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -19 -24 F C B- +1 A- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 117 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 37% +8  7 - 9 1 - 4 -4 +3 C- A+ D+ -7 F+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 15 126 Hofstra W 76 - 71 41% +6  8 - 9 2 - 4 +4 +15 A+ C B -10 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 152 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 48% +3  9 - 9 3 - 4 +3 +17 A+ D A- -14 C- F F+
 Thu, Jan 22 256 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 47% +9  10 - 9 4 - 4 +13 +16 A+ C- F+ -4 B+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 212 @Campbell W 81 - 69 38% +3  11 - 9 5 - 4 +12 +10 A F B- +3 C B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 194 @Elon W 72 - 68 34% +6  12 - 9 6 - 4 +5 -2 D+ C D- +7 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 206 Monmouth W 69 - 66 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 Northeastern W 79 - 74 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Towson L 62 - 68 28%
 Mon, Feb 16 205 Drexel W 65 - 63 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 Hampton W 69 - 64 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 206 @Monmouth L 66 - 69 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 126 @Hofstra L 65 - 73 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 154 Towson L 64 - 65 48%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 -2 C D C- -2 C- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.0 0.2 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 11.3 5.1 0.5 0.0 20.7 3rd
4th 0.8 10.4 5.6 0.2 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 4.2 9.0 0.9 14.1 5th
6th 0.4 9.1 2.9 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 6.6 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.3 5.0 1.4 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 1.3 3.2 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 0.7 2.5 10th
11th 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.6 4.1 11.9 22.2 26.4 20.4 10.9 3.1 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 39.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 8.5% 8.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.1% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
12-6 10.9% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 10.0
11-7 20.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 19.2
10-8 26.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 25.6
9-9 22.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 21.9
8-10 11.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 11.8
7-11 4.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.4 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.4%