Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#140
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#106
Pace60.2#363
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#146
First Shot-0.7#190
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#90
Layup/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#283
Freethrows-2.6#317
Improvement+2.4#32

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#139
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#126
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#78
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-2.3#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.4% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 83.0% 86.4% 66.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 85.1% 76.2%
Conference Champion 16.5% 17.7% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.7% 13.4% 9.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 338 Loyola Maryland W 67-56 87%     1 - 0 -0.1 -7.9 +8.6
  Sat, Nov 8 8 @Houston L 48-65 3%     1 - 1 +6.0 -8.7 +13.4
  Fri, Nov 14 233 Norfolk St. W 51-41 79%     2 - 1 +3.0 -12.8 +17.5
  Tue, Nov 18 183 @James Madison L 75-81 49%     2 - 2 -4.5 +10.8 -16.1
  Mon, Nov 24 115 Rhode Island W 62-55 43%     3 - 2 +10.2 +1.2 +10.0
  Tue, Nov 25 107 Liberty W 72-69 41%     4 - 2 +6.8 +7.6 -0.5
  Wed, Nov 26 85 UC San Diego L 73-87 31%     4 - 3 -7.5 +9.7 -18.5
  Wed, Dec 3 163 Cornell W 93-80 67%     5 - 3 +9.8 +15.9 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 57 @Central Florida L 61-86 15%     5 - 4 -12.5 -2.3 -12.5
  Tue, Dec 16 17 @Kansas L 49-73 5%     5 - 5 -3.8 -6.7 +0.5
  Mon, Dec 22 269 Sacred Heart W 77-67 83%    
  Mon, Dec 29 121 @William & Mary L 72-77 33%    
  Wed, Dec 31 232 @Hampton W 66-64 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 221 Monmouth W 72-64 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 114 Hofstra W 67-66 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 215 @Northeastern W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 171 College of Charleston W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 285 Drexel W 71-60 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 191 @Elon W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 302 @N.C. A&T W 72-66 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 108 UNC Wilmington W 67-66 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 232 Hampton W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 114 @Hofstra L 64-69 33%    
  Thu, Feb 12 198 Stony Brook W 70-63 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 221 @Monmouth W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 285 @Drexel W 68-63 68%    
  Thu, Feb 26 191 Elon W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 229 Campbell W 74-66 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 198 @Stony Brook W 67-66 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.7 4.7 2.7 0.9 0.2 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.0 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.9 0.3 8.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.4 7.3 10.1 13.2 14.5 14.4 12.6 9.1 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.2% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
15-3 80.3% 4.7    3.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.2% 4.7    2.1 2.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 22.2% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.4 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.3% 53.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 35.5% 35.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.8% 31.6% 31.6% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 5.8% 27.2% 27.2% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.1% 23.2% 23.2% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.0
13-5 12.6% 19.3% 19.3% 13.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 10.2
12-6 14.4% 14.2% 14.2% 13.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.5% 10.1% 10.1% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 13.0
10-8 13.2% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.3
9-9 10.1% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.6
8-10 7.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.0
7-11 4.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 3.3 1.0 0.2 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.7 4.3 8.7 21.7 39.1 26.1