IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+0.0	#154
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.8	#175

Pace	60.9	#353
Improvement	+0.6	#158

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#228	D	C-	C	D+	D-
Defense	#109	C+	B	C-	B-	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	34%	#298	1.12	#218	-3.0	#285
2 Pt. Jumpers	30%	#27	0.81	#94	+4.6	#17
Three Pointers	35%	#305	0.85	#350	-5.8	#338
1st FG Attempt			0.93	#309	-4.2	#310
Freethrows	0.27	#281	70%	#257	0.19	#286
Second Chance	35.7%	#45	0.83	#358	0.30	#218
Turnovers					16.6%	#167
Total Offense					-2.1	#228

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	37%	#218	1.14	#152	+1.0	#136
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#177	0.84	#308	-0.9	#255
Three Pointers	42%	#147	0.90	#43	+1.9	#112
1st FG Attempt			0.98	#109	+2.0	#110
Freethrows	0.27	#79	71%	#129	0.19	#83
Second Chance	26.0%	#38	1.00	#135	0.26	#52
Turnovers					15.9%	#228
Total Defense					+2.1	#109

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-3.1%	#335	-0.1%	#152
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-5.4%	#272	-3.9%	#99
Possession Length	18.3	#288	18.0	#299
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.15	#222	0.14	#78
Improvement	+0.6	#149	+0.0	#189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.8%	10.6%	6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.6	14.2

.500 or above	68.6%	85.9%	60.5%
.500 or above in Conference	63.4%	83.6%	54.0%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	7.8%	10.6%	6.5%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 7	6 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 4	16 - 15

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	318 Loyola Maryland	W	67 - 56	82%	+4	1 - 0		+1	-7	F+	F+	C	+9	A	A+	D+
Sat, Nov 8	4 @Houston	L	48 - 65	2%	-9	1 - 1		+8	-9	C-	D+	D-	+16	A-	A	A+
Fri, Nov 14	306 Norfolk St.	W	51 - 41	86%	-1	2 - 1		-2	-17	F	F	A-	+17	A+	D	F
Tue, Nov 18	204 @James Madison	L	75 - 81	49%	-3	2 - 2		-6	+11	C-	B-	C+	-17	F	A+	F
Mon, Nov 24	111 Rhode Island	W	62 - 55	36%	+2	3 - 2		+11	+1	D+	D-	B	+10	A+	F	A-
Tue, Nov 25	89 Liberty	W	72 - 69	28%	-1	4 - 2		+9	+7	C	A+	B-	+2	A-	C	D-
Wed, Nov 26	136 UC San Diego	L	73 - 87	45%	-13	4 - 3		-13	+9	D+	C+	B	-23	F	C	F
Wed, Dec 3	174 Cornell	W	93 - 80	66%	+3	5 - 3		+9	+13	B+	A+	D+	-4	D+	A+	C
Sun, Dec 7	48 @Central Florida	L	61 - 86	9%	-17	5 - 4		-10	-1	C-	A-	F	-12	C	F	C-
Tue, Dec 16	15 @Kansas	L	49 - 73	3%	-14	5 - 5		-3	-8	F+	C+	D	+3	A+	F	C+
Mon, Dec 22	269 Sacred Heart	W	72 - 47	80%	+9	6 - 5		+16	-2	B-	F	D+	+20	A+	B-	A
Mon, Dec 29	149 @William & Mary	L	70 - 84	36%	-8	6 - 6	0 - 1	-10	-1	C	F	B+	-9	F	A+	F
Wed, Dec 31	251 @Hampton	L	62 - 63	59%	-1	6 - 7	0 - 2	-3	-0	F	C	B-	-3	C	C-	B-
Sat, Jan 3	206 Monmouth	L	48 - 62	72%	-7	6 - 8	0 - 3	-20	-20	F	F	B-	-1	C	B-	A+
Thu, Jan 8	126 Hofstra	L	67 - 78	53%	-7	6 - 9	0 - 4	-12	-5	D-	C	F	-8	B	F+	F
Sat, Jan 10	256 @Northeastern	W	87 - 78	59%	+6	7 - 9	1 - 4	+7	+12	A	A+	F	-5	C-	B+	F
Thu, Jan 15	152 College of Charleston	W	61 - 52	60%	+9	8 - 9	2 - 4	+6	-11	F	B-	D-	+18	A+	B	A+
Mon, Jan 19	205 Drexel	W	59 - 58	71%	-7	9 - 9	3 - 4	-5	-7	F	B	C	+2	D	A	C+
Thu, Jan 22	194 @Elon	W	72 - 59	47%	+5	10 - 9	4 - 4	+14	+10	F	A+	A+	+6	A-	B-	A
Sat, Jan 24	281 @N.C. A&T	L	73 - 80	64%	-4	10 - 10	4 - 5	-11	-3	D+	F	D-	-7	F	A	C+
Thu, Jan 29	117 UNC Wilmington	L	73 - 82	49%	-3	10 - 11	4 - 6	-9	+6	B	F	A+	-16	F	B	F
Sat, Jan 31	251 Hampton	W	82 - 50	78%	+18	11 - 11	5 - 6	+24	+12	A+	F	B+	+13	A	A+	F+
Sat, Feb 7	126 @Hofstra	L	64 - 69	32%
Thu, Feb 12	219 Stony Brook	W	68 - 62	72%
Sat, Feb 14	206 @Monmouth	L	64 - 65	50%
Sat, Feb 21	205 @Drexel	L	61 - 62	49%
Thu, Feb 26	194 Elon	W	73 - 68	69%
Sat, Feb 28	212 Campbell	W	75 - 69	72%
Tue, Mar 3	219 @Stony Brook	W	65 - 64	52%
Totals						15 - 14	9 - 9	+0	-2	D	C-	C	+2	C+	B	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.1							0.1	1st
2nd											0.1	1.3	1.0							2.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	3.3	6.0	1.2							10.5	3rd
4th										0.8	9.3	2.6	0.0							12.7	4th
5th									0.0	5.0	7.5	0.3								12.8	5th
6th									0.7	11.5	2.5									14.7	6th
7th								0.1	4.7	8.5	0.2									13.5	7th
8th							0.0	1.0	9.5	2.1	0.0									12.5	8th
9th							0.1	3.8	5.9	0.1										9.9	9th
10th						0.1	1.1	4.7	1.1											7.0	10th
11th						0.2	1.7	1.5	0.1											3.5	11th
12th						0.1	0.2	0.0												0.4	12th
13th							0.0													0.0	13th

Total						0.4	3.1	11.1	22.0	28.0	23.0	10.2	2.3								Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6	2.2%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6	2.3%	18.2%	18.2%		12.7												0.2	0.2	0.0			1.9
11-7	10.2%	15.0%	15.0%		13.2												0.2	0.8	0.5	0.0		8.6
10-8	23.0%	10.6%	10.6%		13.6												0.1	1.0	1.2	0.2		20.5
9-9	28.0%	6.6%	6.6%		14.2													0.3	1.0	0.6	0.0	26.1
8-10	22.0%	4.7%	4.7%		15.0														0.1	0.8	0.1	21.0
7-11	11.1%	4.3%	4.3%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.2	10.6
6-12	3.1%	2.2%	2.2%		15.9															0.0	0.1	3.1
5-13	0.4%	1.2%	1.2%		16.0																0.0	0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	7.8%	7.8%	0.0%	13.9																	92.2	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	12	13	14
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	12.7	36.9	58.3	4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.6%
Lose Out	0.2%