St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +14.1 #37
Pace 64.2 #303
Improvement -3.0 #310

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #61 B- B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense #41 B+ B+ D+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #77 1.18 #149 +2.6 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.72 #227 -0.8 #220
Three Pointers 38% #238 1.16 #23 +1.4 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #85 +3.2 #85
Freethrows 0.33 #98 82% #1 0.27 #22
Second Chance 37.7% #18 1.10 #106 0.41 #34
Turnovers 15.7% #131
Total Offense +5.8 #61

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.00 #24 +2.7 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #51 0.75 #167 -1.8 #315
Three Pointers 36% #321 0.86 #21 +5.7 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #25 +6.6 #25
Freethrows 0.24 #24 75% #320 0.18 #34
Second Chance 24.3% #17 1.00 #108 0.24 #26
Turnovers 14.6% #291
Total Defense +6.1 #41

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #132 -1.2% #81
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #92 -11.8% #22
Possession Length 18.1 #250 18.0 #280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #214 0.19 #249
Improvement -1.5 #259 -1.5 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 3.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.8% 61.4% 37.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.4% 50.8% 27.1%
Average Seed 10.2 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.0% 39.1% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.1% 17.8% 16.9%
First Round32.5% 52.8% 28.9%
Second Round12.8% 22.0% 11.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 4.8% 2.6%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.5% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 15.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 312 - 018 - 7
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 127 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 88% +11  1 - 0 +25 +17 A C- B- +10 B- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 257 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 96% +12  2 - 0 +13 +13 A+ D- F +1 C B A-
 Tue, Nov 11 214 Ohio W 90 - 60 94% +15  3 - 0 +24 +15 B- A+ B+ +9 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 14 140 North Texas W 80 - 49 89% +23  4 - 0 +29 +15 C- A+ D +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 151 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 90% +7  5 - 0 +11 +11 B- A+ F -0 B+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 74% +3  6 - 0 +10 +1 F B- B+ +9 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 60 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 60% +8  7 - 0 +20 +12 A A D- +9 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 25% -13  7 - 1 -6 +4 B+ C D- -9 B- F D-
 Sun, Dec 7 133 @Davidson W 70 - 61 76% +1  8 - 1 +14 +7 B- B C +8 A A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 59 Boise St. L 67 - 68 59% -6  8 - 2 +8 +1 F+ C+ B- +8 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 102 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 82% +10  9 - 2 +15 +9 C+ B+ C +5 A+ B- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 108 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 85% -2  10 - 2 +6 +4 F A+ C +3 B B- C-
 Sun, Dec 28 155 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 79% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +24 A+ A+ A+ -15 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 280 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 B C C +17 A+ C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 204 Portland W 78 - 57 94% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +15 +10 A C C+ +7 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 123 Seattle W 93 - 76 87% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +17 +33 A+ A+ A+ -15 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 138 Washington St. W 88 - 82 89% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +4 +11 B+ F+ F -7 D- B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 98 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 63% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +18 A- A+ D+ +5 B- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 50 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 44% -7  16 - 3 6 - 1 +6 -11 F C C+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 194 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  17 - 3 7 - 1 +25 +14 B- A+ A- +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 204 @Portland W 75 - 69 86% +4  18 - 3 8 - 1 +6 +8 A- D- D+ -2 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Gonzaga L 69 - 80 15%
 Wed, Feb 4 212 San Diego W 84 - 66 95%
 Sat, Feb 7 98 San Francisco W 74 - 64 81%
 Wed, Feb 11 280 Pepperdine W 80 - 58 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 131 @Pacific W 73 - 66 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 123 @Seattle W 69 - 63 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 138 @Washington St. W 78 - 70 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 50 Santa Clara W 76 - 72 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 11 Gonzaga L 72 - 77 33%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +6 B- B+ C+ +6 B+ B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.5 1.7 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.1 19.0 23.3 4.8 54.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.9 13.5 11.0 2.0 35.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.0 19.6 30.1 27.1 11.3 1.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7
16-2 57.5% 6.5    1.8 4.3 0.4
15-3 6.4% 1.7    0.2 1.1 0.5
14-4 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 3.6 5.4 0.9



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.7% 88.2% 34.1% 54.1% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 82.1%
16-2 11.3% 73.7% 26.3% 47.4% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 2.2 3.0 64.3%
15-3 27.1% 51.5% 17.6% 33.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.3 7.2 0.0 13.1 41.1%
14-4 30.1% 36.7% 13.3% 23.4% 10.6 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.8 0.1 19.1 27.0%
13-5 19.6% 23.8% 9.9% 13.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 0.1 14.9 15.4%
12-6 8.0% 15.5% 8.0% 7.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 6.8 8.1%
11-7 2.0% 6.9% 4.9% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 2.2%
10-8 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.3 3.8%
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.8% 15.0% 25.8% 10.2 59.2 30.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 6.1 0.9 11.5 17.7 32.7 23.0 8.8 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 83.3% 8.8 2.4 10.1 20.8 23.2 19.6 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 78.0% 9.1 2.0 6.0 14.0 28.0 18.0 10.0