St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#38
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#21
Pace64.8#301
Improvement-1.9#306

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#70
First Shot+2.9#100
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#61
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#224
Freethrows+4.2#12
Improvement-2.1#323

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#20
First Shot+3.7#60
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#11
Layups/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#45
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+0.2#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 7.0% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.1% 58.3% 37.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.7% 50.5% 29.5%
Average Seed 9.4 9.1 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.5% 98.8%
Conference Champion 11.6% 13.4% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.7% 15.6% 13.7%
First Round42.5% 51.3% 31.9%
Second Round21.5% 26.8% 15.1%
Sweet Sixteen6.1% 7.7% 4.1%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.8% 1.6%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Neutral) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 310 - 117 - 7
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 136 St. Thomas W 84-58 89%     1 - 0 +24.6 +16.8 +9.8
  Fri, Nov 7 225 Chattanooga W 87-66 95%     2 - 0 +14.3 +12.0 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 11 175 Ohio W 90-60 93%     3 - 0 +26.0 +14.6 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 14 146 North Texas W 80-49 90%     4 - 0 +28.8 +12.8 +17.5
  Wed, Nov 19 153 Arkansas St. W 85-72 91%     5 - 0 +10.4 +12.0 -1.4
  Wed, Nov 26 98 Wichita St. W 70-65 76%     6 - 0 +10.0 +1.5 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 27 64 Virginia Tech W 77-66 64%     7 - 0 +19.5 +10.1 +9.8
  Fri, Nov 28 11 Vanderbilt L 71-96 28%     7 - 1 -6.7 +2.1 -7.9
  Sun, Dec 7 128 @Davidson W 70-61 75%     8 - 1 +14.1 +6.2 +8.8
  Sun, Dec 14 46 Boise St. W 67-66 55%    
  Fri, Dec 19 118 Florida Atlantic W 79-67 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 92 Northern Iowa W 68-58 81%    
  Sun, Dec 28 134 @Loyola Marymount W 71-63 76%    
  Tue, Dec 30 293 @Pepperdine W 75-58 94%    
  Fri, Jan 2 269 Portland W 82-61 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 119 Seattle W 74-62 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 165 Washington St. W 81-65 92%    
  Tue, Jan 13 96 @San Francisco W 71-67 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 73 @Santa Clara W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Jan 21 157 Oregon St. W 74-59 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 269 @Portland W 79-64 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 5 @Gonzaga L 67-80 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 246 San Diego W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Feb 7 96 San Francisco W 74-64 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 293 Pepperdine W 78-55 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 129 @Pacific W 72-65 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 119 @Seattle W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 165 @Washington St. W 78-68 81%    
  Wed, Feb 25 73 Santa Clara W 76-68 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 5 Gonzaga L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.7 4.2 0.7 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 11.0 18.0 17.0 7.2 56.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.6 6.4 2.3 0.3 18.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.8 7.2 12.3 17.8 20.6 19.0 11.8 4.2 0.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 4.2    2.6 1.6
16-2 39.3% 4.7    1.6 3.0 0.1
15-3 9.2% 1.8    0.4 1.1 0.2
14-4 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 5.3 5.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 99.5% 39.6% 59.9% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
17-1 4.2% 95.1% 28.8% 66.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 93.1%
16-2 11.8% 84.9% 23.3% 61.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.8 80.3%
15-3 19.0% 70.6% 19.2% 51.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 3.5 0.1 5.6 63.6%
14-4 20.6% 53.4% 14.8% 38.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 5.1 0.1 9.6 45.3%
13-5 17.8% 36.0% 10.3% 25.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.1 0.2 11.4 28.6%
12-6 12.3% 20.2% 6.6% 13.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.1 9.9 14.5%
11-7 7.2% 11.0% 4.6% 6.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 6.4 6.8%
10-8 3.8% 5.4% 3.4% 2.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6 2.1%
9-9 1.6% 3.9% 3.1% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.8%
8-10 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.1% 14.1% 35.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.1 4.5 7.2 12.4 16.4 0.6 50.9 40.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 8.9 28.9 37.8 22.2 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 98.2% 4.2 3.6 3.6 19.6 35.7 21.4 7.1 7.1