Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -13.5 350
Results Rating -12.8 343
Consistency 0.14 120
Pace 65.6 261
Improvement -5.2 348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 351 C- D F D B-
Defense D 319 D C D C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 95 C 57% 194 +1.5 117
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 233 F+ 30% 360 -3.0 318
Three Pointers 42% 159 D+ 32% 266 -0.7 205
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 79 D+ -2.8 278
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 241
Second Chance F+ 22.9% 347 C+ 1.08 109 D 0.25 318
Opponents' Steals D- 11.6% 336
Other Turnovers F 9.5% 352
Turnovers F 21.1% 359
Freethrows C- 0.30 208 F 64% 361 D 0.19 297
Total Offense D- -8.3 351

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 138 D 13.2% 308
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 169 F+ 9.1% 348
Three Pointers A- 94% 10 C+ 0.8% 153
Total B 61% 63 D- 7.3% 333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 D 64% 321 +0.2 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 D 43% 326 +1.5 306
Three Pointers 42% 122 D 37% 302 +2.6 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 102 D- +4.7 341
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 321
Second Chance C 29.7% 159 C- 1.07 236 C 0.32 205
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.3% 273
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 280
Turnovers D 14.8% 295
Freethrows C 0.31 205 C+ 71% 113 C 0.22 188
Total Defense D -5.2 319

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 198 D+ 8.2% 292
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 254 C+ 5.6% 118
Three Pointers C 83% 157 C- 0.6% 234
Total C 56% 201 D+ 4.4% 277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 354 15.6 2
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 305 0.19 254
Consistency 0.12 185 0.13 207
Improvement -0.5 212 -4.7 353

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 355 350 342
Results Rating Rank 346 343 327
Conference Record 0 - 20 0 - 20 1 - 19
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 7
Quad 20 - 90 - 16
Quad 30 - 90 - 24
Quad 43 - 43 - 29


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 62 @Belmont L 63 - 79 2% -4  29% 0 - 1 C- -4 D -6 A+ C- F C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 167 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 17% -10  0% 0 - 2 F -23 F -24 D- D F C+ +1 D- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 218 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 24% -0  51% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -4 D+ C+ C- D -6 C- D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 87 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 7% -10  0% 0 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F+ D C- C -1 D B+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 314 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 45% -2  11% 1 - 4 D -10 F -10 C A+ F C -0 C+ A D+
 Fri, Nov 21 260 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 31% +8  98% 2 - 4 B- +5 B- +4 D- A B- B- +2 C+ C+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 326 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 50% +2  59% 3 - 4 C -0 C+ +3 A D C D -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 26 168 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 18% -5  17% 3 - 5 F -22 F -18 F+ C- F D- -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 285 South Dakota L 63 - 80 27% -11  2% 3 - 6 F -24 F -15 F F D+ F+ -10 F+ D B+
 Wed, Dec 3 118 Pacific L 65 - 80 11% -9  4% 3 - 7 F+ -15 C +0 C+ B+ D- F -17 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 146 @Navy L 56 - 61 6% +0  55% 3 - 8 C -1 F+ -9 F+ D C A- +7 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 44 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  17% 3 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -8 C- -1 C+ B D+ F+ -9 D F C
 Tue, Dec 30 100 Wyoming L 56 - 68 8% -5  7% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D -10 F -18 C F F A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 122 @UNLV L 39 - 67 5% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -22 F -33 F F D A +9 A+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 6 33 Utah St. L 62 - 99 2% -20  0% 3 - 12 0 - 4 F -26 D -6 C- C+ B- F -22 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 52 New Mexico L 49 - 91 3% -21  5% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -34 F -21 C+ F F F -14 D C+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 221 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 11% -4  10% 3 - 14 0 - 6 D -8 D- -7 D+ D- F C- -2 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 73 Nevada L 66 - 81 5% -10  21% 3 - 15 0 - 7 D -10 D -6 A F D- D+ -5 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 92 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 3% -17  2% 3 - 16 0 - 8 F -20 F -18 F F F D+ -4 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 68 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3% 3 - 17 0 - 9 F -30 F+ -10 C- D F+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 129 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 12% -8  3% 3 - 18 0 - 10 F -18 F -13 D+ F F D+ -4 D A F+
 Tue, Feb 3 61 @Grand Canyon L 57 - 81 2% -21  0% 3 - 19 0 - 11 D- -12 D- -8 D+ B F D+ -5 F C- D
 Sat, Feb 7 44 San Diego St. L 54 - 88 3% -20  9% 3 - 20 0 - 12 F -25 F -14 B F F F -11 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 92 Colorado St. L 74 - 91 7% -8  14% 3 - 21 0 - 13 D- -14 C+ +2 A+ F F F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 129 @Fresno St. L 63 - 93 5% -17  0% 3 - 22 0 - 14 F -25 F -11 C- F F F -13 D- F F
 Tue, Feb 17 52 @New Mexico L 61 - 98 1% -18  1% 3 - 23 0 - 15 F -23 D- -7 D F B F -15 F F+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 122 UNLV L 66 - 91 11% -6  18% 3 - 24 0 - 16 F -25 F -11 F B+ F+ F -15 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 24 221 San Jose St. L 80 - 86 25% -3  24% 3 - 25 0 - 17 D- -12 C+ +3 B- C B+ F -16 F C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 28 100 @Wyoming L 60 - 82 2%
 Tue, Mar 3 61 Grand Canyon L 58 - 78 3%
 Sat, Mar 7 73 @Nevada L 57 - 81 1%
Totals 3 - 28 0 - 20 -14 D- -8 F D+ B- D -5 D+ F D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C F+ D+ D+ 42% 33% 42% B- C- F+ C+ D F C- F D D D D D D- 35% 22% 42% C+ D C C- C D C C+ C
0.97 57% 30% 32% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.1 .25 21% .30 64% .19 1.16 64% 43% 37% +5 0 1.11 30% 1.1 .32 15% .31 71% .21
Nov
3		 Belmont D A+ B B A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ B- D- C- F F+ B- D- C+ F A+ A A- 48% 10% 42% D+ B+ B- A+ A+ F F F F
0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16 1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36
Nov
8		 Austin Peay F B- F B- D- 32% 18% 50% C- D- B+ F D F A+ F F+ C+ D- F B- F 30% 23% 47% A- D- C A+ B+ A+ F A+ F
0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16 1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31
Nov
11		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C F B+ D 53% 19% 28% C+ D+ B- C- C+ C- A+ F B D B B+ F D 41% 37% 22% A C- F A D C+ F A+ F
1.04 56% 11% 38% -4 +1 0.96 38% 1.0 .38 19% .44 60% .27 1.10 53% 33% 56% +3 -2 1.05 50% 0.8 .39 22% .65 54% .35
Nov
15		 Miami (OH) F F A+ D- F 48% 15% 37% A- F+ F A+ D C- A+ F B+ C B F F F+ 26% 20% 54% B+ D F A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+
0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25 1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05
Nov
19		 Alabama St. F D+ F A- C- 38% 8% 54% B C F+ A+ A+ F A+ F B C C C A C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ A+ C+ A D+ D- F F
0.99 57% 0% 40% +1 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30 0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 SIU Edwardsville B- F A+ D F 40% 14% 47% B+ D- C+ A+ A B- A+ C A+ B- D+ C- A+ C+ 32% 34% 34% B C+ B D C+ C+ F C F
1.12 35% 50% 30% -10 +1 0.84 33% 1.4 .47 15% .56 73% .41 0.92 60% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 19% .43 67% .29
Nov
23		 IU Indianapolis C+ B+ A+ A+ A 53% 5% 42% B+ A F A+ D C F A F D D+ A- B B- 37% 17% 46% D- C+ D+ F F C F C- F
1.24 69% 67% 43% +13 +3 1.35 26% 1.4 .37 19% .27 82% .22 1.08 64% 30% 30% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.3 .40 16% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Northern Colorado F A+ F F D 31% 38% 31% F F+ F+ A+ C- F F+ F F D- F+ F F F 35% 16% 49% C F A+ B- A+ D A A+ A
0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16 1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
29		 South Dakota F F+ F F F 68% 7% 24% A F F A+ F D+ A+ C A+ F+ F F A+ F 45% 20% 35% C F+ F A+ D B+ F B- F+
0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46 1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33
Dec
3		 Pacific C A C F+ C+ 33% 21% 46% B C+ C- A+ B+ D- A+ F A+ F F F B+ D- 34% 38% 28% A+ C- F F F F F F F
1.07 69% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 23% 1.4 .33 18% .64 59% .38 1.31 69% 50% 31% +7 -3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 12% .37 90% .33
Dec
7		 Navy F+ D C+ F F+ 27% 21% 52% C F+ F A+ D C C+ F D A- B+ A D+ B+ 42% 29% 29% C+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F A- F C-
0.88 54% 40% 24% -9 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15 0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25
Dec
17		 San Diego St. C- D C D+ C 35% 8% 58% A C+ D- A+ B D+ C+ B- B- F+ D+ B- F D+ 47% 18% 35% F D F D- F C A- A A
0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25 1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17
Dec
30		 Wyoming F A+ F F C- 60% 12% 28% A C F F F F B- F D- A- A A+ C- A+ 32% 12% 56% B- A+ C F F A+ F F F
0.82 73% 20% 8% -4 +3 1.00 14% 0.5 .07 28% .40 55% .22 0.99 46% 0% 35% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 29% .55 89% .49
Jan
3		 UNLV F F F F F 52% 8% 40% A F F D F D F F F A C+ B+ A+ A+ 50% 22% 28% C- A+ F+ F F C+ C- A+ B+
0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11 1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20
Jan
6		 Utah St. D C+ F C D+ 41% 20% 39% B C- F A+ C+ B- B B- B F C D- D- C 43% 13% 43% C+ C F F F F+ B A- B+
0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26 1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 New Mexico F C A+ F C 48% 15% 38% A C+ F+ F F F A F D F D- F D+ D 31% 9% 60% C+ D F A+ C+ D+ B F C+
0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17 1.32 67% 60% 37% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22
Jan
13		 San Jose St. D- B- F C+ D+ 36% 17% 48% C- D+ D+ F+ D- F B B+ B+ C- D+ C+ D C- 36% 26% 38% D D+ B+ F C- C- F C F
1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27 1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34
Jan
17		 Nevada D A- F A+ A+ 21% 21% 58% D A F F F D- F A+ F D+ F D F F 40% 27% 33% C F B- A+ A A+ C- F F
0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11 1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36
Jan
20		 Colorado St. F A+ D F F 29% 13% 58% B F F F F F D A- D+ D+ F C D+ D+ 40% 17% 44% C- D+ A+ C- A F F+ A+ C
0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18 1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25
Jan
24		 Boise St. F+ F A B C- 34% 23% 43% C+ C- F+ B+ D F+ D F F+ F D B- F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F F F F F F A- D
0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12 1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Fresno St. F D- F C+ D 40% 15% 45% B D+ D- F F F F+ D+ F+ D+ C F+ F+ F+ 28% 20% 52% B+ D A B+ A F+ C+ A+ B+
0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13 1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
3		 Grand Canyon D- F A+ F D 40% 19% 40% B+ D+ D+ A+ B F F A+ C- D+ F D- D+ F 48% 13% 38% F+ F C- C C- D D+ A+ A+
0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22 1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17
Feb
7		 San Diego St. F B- F C B- 39% 14% 48% B+ B F F+ F F D- F+ F+ F F F B- F 36% 33% 31% B- F A+ D- A+ F A+ B+ A+
0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17 1.25 86% 53% 33% +14 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16
Feb
10		 Colorado St. C+ A F A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% B+ A+ D- F F F A+ F C F F F F F 20% 20% 61% A F A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19 1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51
Feb
14		 Fresno St. F B F C- C 24% 22% 53% D C- F F F F C+ A B F F F B F 28% 28% 43% A+ D- C+ F F F F B F
0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22 1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 New Mexico D- C+ A+ F D 23% 17% 60% C+ D F C+ F B B+ F C F D F F F 44% 2% 54% F+ F F B+ F+ C+ F A+ D+
0.86 58% 56% 23% -7 -1 0.87 13% 1.0 .13 17% .32 63% .20 1.39 64% 100% 52% +18 +3 1.44 45% 0.9 .39 16% .40 63% .25
Feb
21		 UNLV F F F C- F 51% 20% 29% B F C+ A B+ F+ F A F F F F F F 29% 40% 31% A+ F A+ F A+ F A+ F A+
0.96 46% 20% 33% -10 +1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 22% .19 80% .15 1.32 71% 61% 50% +20 -3 1.36 12% 1.3 .15 6% .20 77% .15
Feb
24		 San Jose St. C+ B- F C C 55% 8% 37% A B- D+ B+ C B+ A+ F B F F B+ F F 16% 39% 45% A+ F B D+ C+ D- D F F
1.21 67% 25% 33% +3 +3 1.14 31% 1.3 .41 15% .39 64% .25 1.30 75% 32% 55% +14 -4 1.22 29% 1.1 .32 12% .33 89% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 93.9 6.0 0.2 100.0 12th
Total 93.9 6.0 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 6.0% 6.0
0-20 93.9% 93.9
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 92.6%