Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.3 #342
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #334
Pace 62.5 #344
Improvement -2.6 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 D+ D F D+ B
Defense #255 C- C C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #56 1.16 #183 +2.9 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #267 0.57 #353 -3.0 #320
Three Pointers 40% #201 0.90 #310 -2.9 #282
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #255 -3.0 #255
Freethrows 19.0 #105 61% #363 11.5 #252
Second Chance 22.8% #351 1.13 #81 0.26 #294
Turnovers 20.3% #351
Total Offense -8.7 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #241 1.24 #274 -0.2 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #132 0.78 #224 -0.8 #241
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.00 #162 +0.0 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #216 -1.1 #218
Freethrows 16.5 #142 73% #187 12.0 #215
Second Chance 31.5% #213 1.05 #193 0.33 #204
Turnovers 15.7% #230
Total Defense -2.6 #255

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #66 -0.6% #117
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #294 2.7% #235
Possession Length 19.8 #357 15.8 #17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.18 #196
Improvement -2.4 #318 -0.1 #193

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.3% 86.0% 96.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 90 - 13
Quad 31 - 91 - 23
Quad 44 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 79 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  0 - 1 -6 -3 A+ C- F -3 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 180 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 26% -10  0 - 2 -25 -20 D D- F -4 F B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 219 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 31% -0  0 - 3 -10 -3 D C C- -7 C- C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 84 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 9% -10  0 - 4 -11 -9 F D C- -3 D A- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 306 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 51% -2  1 - 4 -9 -10 C- A+ F +0 C+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 278 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 44% +8  2 - 4 +4 +4 F A B +1 C B- C
 Sun, Nov 23 353 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 69% +2  3 - 4 -3 +4 A+ F C -9 C F C
 Wed, Nov 26 174 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 24% -5  3 - 5 -22 -16 F D+ F -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 282 South Dakota L 63 - 80 33% -11  3 - 6 -24 -14 F F D -10 F C B
 Wed, Dec 3 144 Pacific L 65 - 80 19% -9  3 - 7 -17 +1 C+ B F -20 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 200 @Navy L 56 - 61 13% +0  3 - 8 -4 -8 F F C +3 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 52 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 2% -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -10 -1 C B- F -10 D F C
 Tue, Dec 30 96 Wyoming L 56 - 68 10% -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -10 -16 C F F +6 A+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 134 @UNLV L 39 - 67 8% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -24 -28 F F D+ +3 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 28 Utah St. L 62 - 99 3% -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -25 -3 C+ C B -24 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 48 New Mexico L 49 - 91 5% -21  3 - 13 0 - 5 -34 -18 B+ F F -17 D B D
 Tue, Jan 13 227 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 16% -4  3 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -3 D F F -6 C- C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 85 Nevada L 59 - 74 8%
 Tue, Jan 20 97 @Colorado St. L 56 - 76 3%
 Sat, Jan 24 78 @Boise St. L 54 - 76 2%
 Sat, Jan 31 152 Fresno St. L 62 - 71 21%
 Tue, Feb 3 90 @Grand Canyon L 55 - 76 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 52 San Diego St. L 57 - 76 4%
 Tue, Feb 10 97 Colorado St. L 59 - 73 11%
 Sat, Feb 14 152 @Fresno St. L 59 - 74 9%
 Tue, Feb 17 48 @New Mexico L 56 - 81 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 134 UNLV L 65 - 75 18%
 Tue, Feb 24 227 San Jose St. L 64 - 69 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 96 @Wyoming L 59 - 79 3%
 Tue, Mar 3 90 Grand Canyon L 58 - 73 9%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 @Nevada L 56 - 77 3%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -11 -9 D+ D F -3 C- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.9 3.8 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 27.5 35.6 18.6 5.9 0.9 0.1 88.6 12th
Total 27.5 36.5 22.3 9.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 9.7% 9.7
2-18 22.3% 22.3
1-19 36.5% 36.5
0-20 27.5% 27.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 26.6%