Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+19.9#9
Pace83.8#8
Improvement+0.1#164

Offense
Total Offense+12.8#2
First Shot+12.5#1
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+5.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#3
Freethrows+2.2#66
Improvement+0.5#130

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#34
First Shot+4.5#55
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#81
Layups/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#142
Freethrows+3.1#28
Improvement-0.4#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 4.1% 1.8%
#1 Seed 18.6% 20.4% 10.3%
Top 2 Seed 40.9% 43.9% 27.1%
Top 4 Seed 73.4% 76.4% 60.0%
Top 6 Seed 89.4% 91.5% 79.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.9% 98.6% 94.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.4% 98.2% 93.9%
Average Seed 3.4 3.2 4.1
.500 or above 98.9% 99.3% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 93.8% 88.3%
Conference Champion 29.6% 31.1% 22.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 2.2%
First Round97.5% 98.3% 93.8%
Second Round87.4% 88.9% 80.5%
Sweet Sixteen57.4% 59.6% 47.6%
Elite Eight31.7% 33.4% 24.0%
Final Four15.9% 17.0% 11.0%
Championship Game7.6% 8.2% 4.7%
National Champion3.2% 3.5% 1.7%

Next Game: Clemson (Home) - 82.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 26 - 117 - 9
Quad 35 - 022 - 9
Quad 42 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 319 North Dakota W 91-62 99%     1 - 0 +17.5 +8.8 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 8 15 @St. John's W 103-96 43%     2 - 0 +27.7 +20.9 +5.7
  Thu, Nov 13 3 Purdue L 80-87 49%     2 - 1 +12.2 +14.5 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 19 13 Illinois W 90-86 54%     3 - 1 +22.0 +14.7 +6.9
  Mon, Nov 24 6 Gonzaga L 85-95 48%     3 - 2 +9.6 +14.2 -3.8
  Tue, Nov 25 129 UNLV W 115-76 93%     4 - 2 +41.1 +28.8 +7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 93 Maryland W 105-72 89%     5 - 2 +38.6 +26.7 +9.1
  Wed, Dec 3 38 Clemson W 85-75 82%    
  Sun, Dec 7 231 Texas San Antonio W 98-72 99%    
  Fri, Dec 12 11 Arizona W 88-87 50%    
  Wed, Dec 17 81 South Florida W 99-84 92%    
  Sun, Dec 21 163 Kennesaw St. W 102-82 96%    
  Mon, Dec 29 69 Yale W 94-80 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 Kentucky W 90-86 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 19 @Vanderbilt L 89-90 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 36 Texas W 90-81 80%    
  Tue, Jan 13 84 @Mississippi St. W 90-81 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 52 @Oklahoma W 91-85 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 14 Tennessee W 86-82 65%    
  Tue, Jan 27 33 Missouri W 92-83 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 17 @Florida L 88-89 45%    
  Tue, Feb 3 60 Texas A&M W 96-83 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 23 @Auburn W 88-87 53%    
  Wed, Feb 11 49 @Mississippi W 86-80 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 88 South Carolina W 90-74 92%    
  Tue, Feb 17 25 Arkansas W 91-83 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 40 @LSU W 90-86 64%    
  Wed, Feb 25 84 Mississippi St. W 93-78 91%    
  Sat, Feb 28 14 @Tennessee L 83-85 44%    
  Tue, Mar 3 34 @Georgia W 96-93 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 23 Auburn W 91-84 73%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.0 8.9 6.8 3.1 0.8 29.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 6.8 5.8 2.0 0.3 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.5 4.1 4.4 0.9 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 1.9 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.4 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.8 9.3 12.2 14.8 15.0 13.9 11.0 7.1 3.1 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 96.3% 6.8    5.9 0.9 0.0
15-3 80.9% 8.9    5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 50.4% 7.0    2.6 3.1 1.2 0.1
13-5 18.8% 2.8    0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 18.6 8.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.1% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.1% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.4 4.5 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.0% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.7 4.9 4.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.9% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.1 3.8 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.7 1.7 4.9 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.8% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.4 0.6 2.6 5.2 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
11-7 12.2% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.2 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.7 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
10-8 9.3% 99.9% 5.8% 94.0% 5.2 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 5.8% 99.1% 4.6% 94.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
8-10 3.7% 92.7% 3.6% 89.1% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 92.5%
7-11 2.0% 70.3% 1.5% 68.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 69.9%
6-12 1.0% 34.8% 2.0% 32.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 33.4%
5-13 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.3%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.9% 20.0% 77.9% 3.4 18.6 22.3 18.8 13.7 9.9 6.1 3.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 97.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 76.2 23.8