Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.1 #14
Expected Predictive Rating +17.9 #20
Pace 81.9 #6
Improvement -1.8 #275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #2 A+ A- A+ B- B+
Defense #65 A- B+ D B+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #240 1.30 #57 +1.2 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #354 1.18 #1 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 55% #7 1.12 #48 +9.8 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #15 +8.7 #15
Freethrows 18.1 #141 77% #56 13.9 #108
Second Chance 35.8% #48 1.14 #77 0.41 #40
Turnovers 11.7% #2
Total Offense +13.7 #2

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 0.95 #10 +5.8 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #21 0.74 #151 -2.7 #344
Three Pointers 37% #284 0.97 #119 +2.8 #82
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #29 +5.9 #29
Freethrows 15.5 #93 65% #6 10.2 #324
Second Chance 28.6% #105 0.91 #41 0.26 #48
Turnovers 14.8% #292
Total Defense +4.4 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #37 -2.4% #28
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.1% #17 -9.4% #37
Possession Length 14.2 #5 18.0 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #31 0.14 #77
Improvement -1.2 #258 -0.6 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.8% 3.7% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.9% 13.6% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 53.0% 60.2% 37.5%
Top 6 Seed 85.0% 89.8% 75.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.4% 97.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.3% 96.9%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 95.0% 82.7%
Conference Champion 9.5% 12.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 2.0%
First Round98.4% 99.2% 96.5%
Second Round84.4% 87.3% 78.1%
Sweet Sixteen47.3% 50.6% 40.5%
Elite Eight20.9% 23.0% 16.5%
Final Four9.1% 10.2% 6.7%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.7%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 1.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 9
Quad 26 - 216 - 11
Quad 35 - 020 - 11
Quad 42 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 319 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  1 - 0 +17 +6 B+ F C +9 C A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 8 15 @St. John's W 103 - 96 41% +5  2 - 0 +27 +23 A+ A A+ +4 C+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 3 Purdue L 80 - 87 47% -2  2 - 1 +12 +15 A+ D A+ -3 A B C+
 Wed, Nov 19 8 Illinois W 90 - 86 40% +1  3 - 1 +25 +16 A+ A+ C +8 A A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 10 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 42% -1  3 - 2 +10 +13 A+ B- A- -2 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 134 UNLV W 115 - 76 93% +16  4 - 2 +40 +31 A+ A A +6 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 112 Maryland W 105 - 72 90% +20  5 - 2 +37 +27 A+ A+ B +7 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 33 Clemson W 90 - 84 75% +9  6 - 2 +17 +22 A+ A+ A+ -5 B A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 332 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  7 - 2 +28 +11 D+ B- A+ +13 B- A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 28% -7  7 - 3 +3 +9 A+ F D -4 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 75 South Florida W 104 - 93 89% +8  8 - 3 +16 +21 A A+ A- -6 A F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 159 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 94% +18  9 - 3 +11 +9 C- B- A+ +1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 94 Yale W 102 - 78 91% +19  10 - 3 +27 +28 B A+ A+ -1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 25 Kentucky W 89 - 74 70% +11  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +21 A+ A- A- +6 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 9 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 30% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 +17 +14 D A+ A +4 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 41 Texas L 88 - 92 80% -5  11 - 5 1 - 2 +5 +14 A- B- A+ -9 B- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 66 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 74% +5  12 - 5 2 - 2 +26 +21 A B+ A+ +4 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Oklahoma W 90 - 85 68%
 Sat, Jan 24 20 Tennessee W 85 - 80 67%
 Tue, Jan 27 53 Missouri W 93 - 82 85%
 Sun, Feb 1 12 @Florida L 85 - 90 33%
 Tue, Feb 3 40 Texas A&M W 96 - 88 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Auburn L 89 - 90 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 65 @Mississippi W 86 - 79 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 69 South Carolina W 89 - 76 89%
 Tue, Feb 17 26 Arkansas W 96 - 90 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 44 @LSU W 89 - 86 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 66 Mississippi St. W 93 - 80 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 20 @Tennessee L 82 - 83 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 23 @Georgia L 96 - 97 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 Auburn W 93 - 87 70%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +18 +14 A+ A- A+ +4 A- B+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 3.6 2.5 0.7 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 8.1 5.0 0.7 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.6 5.0 0.6 14.6 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 6.0 1.0 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.8 2.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 3.1 0.2 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.3 0.7 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.2 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 5.5 10.2 15.4 19.6 18.3 15.2 8.4 3.4 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 91.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 75.0% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.1
14-4 42.8% 3.6    1.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.5% 2.4    0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.0 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.4% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.4% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.6 0.9 2.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.2% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 3.2 0.5 2.6 6.3 4.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 18.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.9 0.1 0.9 5.4 7.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.6% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 4.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 6.3 7.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 15.4% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 5.4 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.5 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 10.2% 99.9% 5.2% 94.6% 6.3 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 5.5% 97.5% 3.6% 93.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 97.4%
7-11 2.3% 85.2% 1.9% 83.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 84.9%
6-12 0.8% 40.5% 2.4% 38.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 39.0%
5-13 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.9%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.7% 13.1% 85.6% 4.6 1.3 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 50.0 41.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 40.0 46.7 13.3