Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#83
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#40
Pace70.8#160
Improvement+1.0#97

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#62
First Shot+5.7#43
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#189
Layup/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#79
Freethrows+3.0#39
Improvement+2.7#14

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot+2.2#102
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#235
Layups/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement-1.7#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 2.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 22.8% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.2% 22.6% 10.8%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.4
.500 or above 43.7% 59.4% 34.2%
.500 or above in Conference 18.7% 24.0% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 10.9% 16.5%
First Four4.6% 5.9% 3.7%
First Round12.8% 19.3% 8.8%
Second Round5.3% 8.7% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Neutral) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 47 - 16
Quad 34 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 331 Southern Utah W 81-64 96%     1 - 0 +4.3 -1.4 +5.1
  Sun, Nov 9 281 Utah Tech W 81-66 93%     2 - 0 +5.5 +4.4 +0.8
  Fri, Nov 14 6 Gonzaga L 65-77 18%     2 - 1 +4.6 +0.3 +4.2
  Mon, Nov 17 337 Georgia St. W 75-62 96%     3 - 1 -0.7 -3.4 +2.5
  Thu, Nov 20 110 @Hawaii W 83-76 51%     4 - 1 +13.5 +10.6 +2.5
  Mon, Nov 24 36 Texas W 87-86 29%     5 - 1 +13.5 +12.6 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 157 Washington St. W 100-94 76%     6 - 1 +5.7 +21.8 -16.2
  Wed, Nov 26 31 USC L 75-88 27%     6 - 2 +0.4 +11.7 -12.0
  Sat, Dec 6 52 Oklahoma L 78-81 38%    
  Tue, Dec 9 249 Northern Arizona W 84-69 91%    
  Sat, Dec 13 59 Santa Clara L 76-78 42%    
  Wed, Dec 17 32 @UCLA L 68-77 18%    
  Sun, Dec 21 169 Oregon St. W 78-67 85%    
  Sat, Jan 3 72 Colorado W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Jan 7 7 @BYU L 69-85 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 54 Kansas St. W 84-83 51%    
  Wed, Jan 14 11 @Arizona L 71-86 10%    
  Sun, Jan 18 5 @Houston L 62-78 8%    
  Wed, Jan 21 71 West Virginia W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 65 Cincinnati W 76-75 55%    
  Tue, Jan 27 68 @Central Florida L 81-85 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 11 Arizona L 74-83 21%    
  Wed, Feb 4 125 @Utah W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 72 @Colorado L 77-81 36%    
  Tue, Feb 10 46 Oklahoma St. L 84-85 47%    
  Tue, Feb 17 24 Texas Tech L 74-79 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 28 @Baylor L 75-85 19%    
  Tue, Feb 24 51 @TCU L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 125 Utah W 82-75 74%    
  Tue, Mar 3 18 Kansas L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Iowa St. L 69-85 8%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.8 0.2 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.7 1.4 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.7 3.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 3.8 5.4 1.0 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 2.3 6.2 2.4 0.1 11.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.0 0.3 11.6 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 11.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.7 16th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.6 7.4 11.5 14.5 16.0 14.8 11.9 8.0 5.4 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 44.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 28.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 5.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 93.9% 1.4% 92.6% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.8%
11-7 3.0% 90.2% 1.6% 88.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 90.1%
10-8 5.4% 71.5% 0.3% 71.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.6 71.4%
9-9 8.0% 48.9% 0.5% 48.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.1 4.1 48.6%
8-10 11.9% 17.3% 0.1% 17.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.1 9.9 17.2%
7-11 14.8% 3.7% 0.1% 3.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.3 3.5%
6-12 16.0% 0.6% 0.6% 11.1 0.1 0.0 16.0 0.6%
5-13 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 14.4 0.1%
4-14 11.5% 11.5
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 15.4% 0.2% 15.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 2.4 2.6 3.7 3.8 0.3 84.6 15.2%