Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#172
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#115
Pace80.4#12
Improvement+1.3#80

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#186
First Shot-3.7#282
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#37
Layup/Dunks-2.7#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement-0.4#222

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#176
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#100
Layups/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#126
Freethrows+0.7#137
Improvement+1.6#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 14.4% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 75.2% 83.5% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 84.0% 75.5%
Conference Champion 15.5% 18.4% 11.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round11.8% 14.4% 8.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 207 @Ohio W 89-85 45%     1 - 0 +4.0 +9.0 -5.3
  Fri, Nov 7 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 30%     1 - 1 -20.7 -8.1 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 239 @Missouri St. W 86-85 52%     2 - 1 -0.6 +3.1 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 19 30 @St. Mary's L 72-85 6%     2 - 2 +3.4 +9.6 -6.4
  Fri, Nov 21 42 @SMU L 69-100 7%     2 - 3 -16.1 -6.1 -6.1
  Mon, Nov 24 222 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 70%     3 - 3 +4.3 -2.1 +5.9
  Fri, Nov 28 155 North Dakota St. W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Dec 2 184 Texas Arlington W 78-75 62%    
  Sat, Dec 6 248 @Arkansas Little Rock W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Dec 13 213 @Rice L 75-76 47%    
  Wed, Dec 17 203 @Texas St. L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Dec 20 237 @Southern Miss W 79-78 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 147 James Madison W 81-79 56%    
  Wed, Jan 7 131 Troy L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 203 Texas St. W 76-71 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 180 @South Alabama L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 @Troy L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Jan 22 246 @Georgia Southern W 83-82 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 337 @Georgia St. W 81-74 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 216 Old Dominion W 81-76 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 183 Marshall W 84-81 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 253 @Coastal Carolina W 80-79 53%    
  Wed, Feb 11 361 Louisiana Monroe W 90-74 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 180 South Alabama W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Feb 19 304 @Louisiana W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 87-77 81%    
  Tue, Feb 24 237 Southern Miss W 82-76 70%    
  Fri, Feb 27 304 Louisiana W 79-69 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 15.5 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.7 1.3 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.6 2.0 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.7 8.1 11.4 12.3 13.5 12.9 11.6 8.7 5.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.2% 2.8    2.5 0.3
15-3 78.9% 4.5    3.0 1.3 0.2
14-4 50.9% 4.4    1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 18.0% 2.1    0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.2 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 35.7% 35.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 43.9% 43.9% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.0% 42.9% 42.9% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.7% 36.5% 36.5% 13.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6
14-4 8.7% 30.4% 30.4% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.1
13-5 11.6% 20.5% 20.5% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 9.2
12-6 12.9% 10.3% 10.3% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.6
11-7 13.5% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.6
10-8 12.3% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.8
9-9 11.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-10 8.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.1
7-11 5.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.1% 3.1
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.0 2.7 0.4 88.2 0.0%