Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.5 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #101
Pace 80.2 #12
Improvement +1.1 #123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 D+ A D- B C+
Defense #158 C- B D C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.20 #124 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #264 0.67 #290 -2.2 #290
Three Pointers 46% #80 0.89 #320 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #242 -2.4 #242
Freethrows 18.6 #119 77% #59 14.3 #81
Second Chance 37.8% #25 1.13 #82 0.43 #28
Turnovers 18.8% #310
Total Offense +1.3 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #219 1.24 #278 -0.9 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #78 0.74 #152 -1.2 #273
Three Pointers 38% #249 1.07 #253 +0.3 #169
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #244 -1.9 #242
Freethrows 17.9 #213 69% #58 12.4 #186
Second Chance 24.9% #22 1.08 #244 0.27 #65
Turnovers 14.4% #311
Total Defense +0.2 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #133 -1.1% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #263 4.7% #271
Possession Length 14.9 #21 17.0 #139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #129 0.19 #230
Improvement +0.2 #169 +0.9 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 32.1% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 44.4% 57.6% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.1% 32.1% 21.9%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 412 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 178 @Ohio W 89 - 85 50% -2  1 - 0 +6 +10 C A+ F -5 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 29% -16  1 - 1 -18 -5 F C F -11 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 192 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 52% -7  2 - 1 +2 +4 D A F -2 D+ B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 42 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 11% -7  2 - 2 +2 +7 C- A+ C+ -5 D+ D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 30 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  2 - 3 -13 -7 D- A+ F -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 203 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 75% +7  3 - 3 +6 -4 C- D- F +9 A+ A- B
 Fri, Nov 28 148 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 64% -1  4 - 3 +3 +1 D- B- A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 154 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 66% +10  5 - 3 +17 +9 B C D+ +8 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 283 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 70% +8  6 - 3 +8 +13 C A- B -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 247 @Rice L 76 - 77 63% +7  6 - 4 -3 +3 C+ D- C -6 D B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 261 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 66% +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +13 A A+ F +3 B- B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 210 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 55% +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +7 +19 F A+ A+ -13 F C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 213 James Madison L 74 - 78 76% +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -10 -4 F D C+ -5 F A- A
 Wed, Jan 7 125 Troy W 86 - 74 60% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +11 +7 B- A F +4 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Texas St. W 83 - 82 83% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 -8 -1 F C F -7 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 190 @South Alabama W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Jan 17 125 @Troy L 78 - 81 37%
 Thu, Jan 22 230 @Georgia Southern W 87 - 85 58%
 Sat, Jan 24 290 @Georgia St. W 82 - 76 71%
 Wed, Jan 28 244 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 171 Marshall W 85 - 80 70%
 Wed, Feb 4 268 @Coastal Carolina W 81 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 131 Bowling Green W 82 - 79 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 354 Louisiana Monroe W 93 - 75 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 South Alabama W 77 - 71 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 315 @Louisiana W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 90 - 78 86%
 Tue, Feb 24 210 Southern Miss W 82 - 75 75%
 Fri, Feb 27 315 Louisiana W 80 - 66 89%
Totals 20 - 9 13 - 5 +1 +1 D+ A D- +0 C- B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.7 13.6 14.2 7.9 2.1 44.4 1st
2nd 0.5 5.1 11.3 7.1 1.9 0.1 26.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 6.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 2.6 0.2 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.3 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 9.6 15.6 20.6 21.2 16.1 8.0 2.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1
16-2 98.6% 7.9    7.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 88.2% 14.2    10.9 3.2 0.1
14-4 64.2% 13.6    7.1 5.5 1.0 0.0
13-5 27.8% 5.7    1.3 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.4% 44.4 28.8 11.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.1% 56.4% 56.4% 12.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.9
16-2 8.0% 43.4% 43.4% 12.8 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.5
15-3 16.1% 39.1% 39.1% 13.3 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.1 0.2 9.8
14-4 21.2% 33.5% 33.5% 13.5 0.4 3.0 3.4 0.4 14.1
13-5 20.6% 25.8% 25.8% 13.8 0.1 1.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 15.3
12-6 15.6% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 12.9
11-7 9.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.7
10-8 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
9-9 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 13.4 72.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 11.8 25.3 64.5 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%