Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #302
Pace 66.1 #269
Improvement -0.9 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #138 A F C- B A-
Defense #360 F D D+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #38 1.35 #20 +8.0 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #329 0.73 #203 -3.1 #323
Three Pointers 43% #151 1.08 #97 +2.3 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #25 +7.2 #22
Freethrows 19.2 #96 75% #116 14.4 #75
Second Chance 17.9% #365 1.09 #127 0.20 #362
Turnovers 17.6% #241
Total Offense +0.8 #138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.41 #364 +0.3 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #254 0.80 #257 +0.6 #153
Three Pointers 51% #12 1.22 #362 -10.3 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #362 -9.4 #362
Freethrows 17.0 #172 71% #132 12.1 #202
Second Chance 34.9% #318 1.05 #198 0.37 #290
Turnovers 15.3% #255
Total Defense -8.5 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #22 -0.4% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #38 18.9% #364
Possession Length 18.6 #305 16.7 #93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.13 #49
Improvement +0.0 #179 -0.9 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 9.9% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.2% 42.8% 17.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 5.0% 13.9%
First Four1.8% 2.6% 1.7%
First Round1.5% 2.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 410 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 23 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  0 - 1 -26 -10 B F F -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 5% -11  0 - 2 -16 +2 C- C+ C -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 228 Wofford L 86 - 94 46% -8  0 - 3 -15 +7 B B+ A+ -21 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 71 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 5% -9  0 - 4 +4 +13 A+ F F -9 F F A
 Mon, Nov 24 358 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 66% +5  1 - 4 +0 +0 C F B- +2 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 301 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 51% -1  2 - 4 -3 +7 A+ F D+ -10 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 89 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 6% -13  2 - 5 -3 +2 A+ F C- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 179 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 38% -6  2 - 6 -8 +0 B+ F F -9 F B F
 Wed, Dec 17 267 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 55% -1  3 - 6 +6 +4 B- F D- +3 A+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 25 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  3 - 7 +5 +26 A+ A+ C- -22 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 320 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 45% -6  3 - 8 0 - 1 -8 +11 A+ F A -19 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 202 @Queens L 76 - 98 21% -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -21 -3 A+ F F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 265 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 54% -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -3 +2 A+ F B- -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 279 North Alabama L 73 - 82 58% -1  4 - 10 1 - 3 -19 +7 A D C+ -27 F C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 167 @Lipscomb L 74 - 84 17%
 Sat, Jan 17 253 @Eastern Kentucky L 76 - 81 30%
 Thu, Jan 22 305 @Jacksonville L 70 - 72 41%
 Sat, Jan 24 350 @North Florida W 86 - 84 59%
 Wed, Jan 28 320 West Georgia W 80 - 75 67%
 Sat, Jan 31 202 Queens L 82 - 84 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 345 Stetson W 81 - 74 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 79 - 81 41%
 Thu, Feb 12 265 @Central Arkansas L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 180 @Austin Peay L 71 - 80 20%
 Wed, Feb 18 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 81 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 78 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 279 @North Alabama L 73 - 77 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 180 Austin Peay L 74 - 77 39%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8 +1 A F C- -9 F D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.6 0.4 6.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 4.5 0.9 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 6.4 2.3 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 7.1 4.3 0.4 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 6.7 6.3 1.0 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 5.6 7.2 1.6 0.1 15.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 5.3 5.8 1.9 0.1 14.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.0 6.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.5 13.4 17.6 18.0 15.3 11.0 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 34.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.1% 11.7% 11.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.0
11-7 3.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.1
10-8 6.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.0
9-9 11.0% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.6 10.5
8-10 15.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 14.9
7-11 18.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 17.7
6-12 17.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 17.4
5-13 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
4-14 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%