Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#294
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#245
Pace66.1#274
Improvement+2.5#24

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#157
First Shot+2.9#91
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#332
Layup/Dunks+5.9#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
Freethrows+0.3#154
Improvement+0.9#86

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#359
First Shot-7.1#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#218
Layups/Dunks-1.1#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#340
Freethrows-1.2#260
Improvement+1.6#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 4.3% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 16.0% 25.8% 10.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.0% 45.0% 34.1%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 8.6% 13.7%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round2.6% 3.7% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 410 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 34 @Georgia L 59-104 2%     0 - 1 -28.9 -11.6 -13.5
  Sat, Nov 8 54 @Kansas St. L 71-98 4%     0 - 2 -14.3 +2.2 -16.1
  Sat, Nov 15 225 Wofford L 86-94 48%     0 - 3 -14.8 +7.6 -22.4
  Wed, Nov 19 66 @Notre Dame L 79-86 5%     0 - 4 +4.5 +12.7 -8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 358 @The Citadel W 70-58 63%     1 - 4 +1.2 +0.5 +2.6
  Tue, Nov 25 276 Houston Christian W 74-69 46%     2 - 4 -1.3 +9.3 -9.9
  Sat, Nov 29 280 @Northern Illinois L 75-79 36%    
  Sat, Dec 6 118 @Murray St. L 76-89 10%    
  Sat, Dec 13 198 Northern Kentucky L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Dec 17 188 Chattanooga L 74-77 40%    
  Tue, Dec 23 16 @Kentucky L 65-93 0.4%   
  Thu, Jan 1 311 @West Georgia L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Jan 3 210 @Queens L 76-83 25%    
  Thu, Jan 8 317 Central Arkansas W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 242 North Alabama W 75-74 51%    
  Thu, Jan 15 176 @Lipscomb L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 269 @Jacksonville L 69-74 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 341 @North Florida W 83-82 52%    
  Wed, Jan 28 311 West Georgia W 77-73 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 210 Queens L 79-80 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 344 Stetson W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 164 Florida Gulf Coast L 76-80 37%    
  Thu, Feb 12 317 @Central Arkansas L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 165 @Austin Peay L 68-78 21%    
  Thu, Feb 19 176 Lipscomb L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 258 Eastern Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Wed, Feb 25 242 @North Alabama L 71-77 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 165 Austin Peay L 71-75 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.3 1.9 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 3.8 0.5 11.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.2 1.0 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.1 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 9.8 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.8 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.3 7.1 9.7 12.3 12.4 13.3 11.9 9.5 7.2 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 93.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 54.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
12-6 6.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 20.6% 20.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.5% 29.1% 29.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.4% 16.8% 16.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.3
12-6 4.6% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.2
11-7 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.7
10-8 9.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 9.1
9-9 11.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.4
8-10 13.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.0
7-11 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.3
6-12 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.3
5-13 9.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%