Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #277
Pace 60.4 #359
Improvement +0.6 #147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 B+ C C- D+ C
Defense #355 F C F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.20 #128 -2.6 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #256 0.80 #119 -1.0 #224
Three Pointers 50% #23 1.18 #15 +8.8 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.2 #50
Freethrows 15.4 #285 71% #230 11.0 #275
Second Chance 26.8% #287 1.14 #70 0.31 #203
Turnovers 17.2% #221
Total Offense +2.1 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.23 #269 -1.9 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #199 0.91 #344 -1.3 #279
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.20 #356 -3.7 #317
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #350 -6.9 #350
Freethrows 17.5 #196 74% #236 12.9 #165
Second Chance 30.6% #174 1.07 #222 0.33 #195
Turnovers 12.2% #360
Total Defense -7.6 #355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #183 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.0% #45 13.1% #355
Possession Length 19.5 #351 17.4 #205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.15 #97
Improvement +1.6 #88 -1.1 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.7% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 40.2% 46.7% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 84.0% 61.5%
Conference Champion 10.2% 12.4% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.1% 4.5%
First Four6.6% 6.7% 6.3%
First Round9.4% 10.4% 6.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 413 - 915 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 236 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 34% -2  1 - 0 -0 -4 D D+ F +4 A+ C C
 Fri, Nov 7 63 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 6% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 D- A F
 Wed, Nov 12 248 Brown W 90 - 77 60% +14  2 - 1 +5 +26 A+ A+ F -20 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 241 Merrimack L 79 - 91 58% -10  2 - 2 -20 +10 A+ C B+ -31 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 163 @Columbia L 49 - 54 23% -12  2 - 3 -3 -14 F C A+ +11 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 162 Harvard W 75 - 74 31% -2  3 - 3 +1 +10 A+ C F -9 F C- C-
 Tue, Nov 25 99 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -1 +25 A+ B A+ -27 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 179 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 25% +2  3 - 5 -7 +0 B C- F -9 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 335 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 60% +6  3 - 6 -14 -0 D A- D -13 F D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 341 Maine L 59 - 69 80% -7  3 - 7 -24 -9 F B F -17 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 204 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 29% -9  3 - 8 -13 -4 D D- D- -9 D A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 284 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 67% +9  4 - 8 +2 +16 A+ A+ F -13 F D F
 Wed, Dec 31 200 @Navy L 77 - 82 28% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -4 +10 B+ F A+ -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 239 American L 62 - 64 58% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -9 -2 F B A+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 326 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 56% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +9 +13 A+ D C- -3 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 330 Army W 100 - 91 78% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +21 A+ D F -26 F F F
 Wed, Jan 14 313 Lehigh W 75 - 69 73%
 Sat, Jan 17 336 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 73 60%
 Wed, Jan 21 326 Lafayette W 76 - 68 76%
 Sat, Jan 24 215 @Colgate L 71 - 76 30%
 Wed, Jan 28 200 Navy L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 318 @Bucknell W 71 - 70 54%
 Mon, Feb 2 310 @Holy Cross W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 336 Loyola Maryland W 79 - 70 78%
 Wed, Feb 11 330 @Army W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 318 Bucknell W 74 - 67 74%
 Mon, Feb 16 215 Colgate W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 313 @Lehigh W 72 - 71 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 310 Holy Cross W 74 - 68 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 @American L 71 - 75 36%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 8 -5 +2 B+ C C- -8 F C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 3.0 1.1 0.2 10.2 1st
2nd 0.5 3.8 7.1 4.0 0.9 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.9 8.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.7 9.2 4.5 0.6 0.0 19.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 7.0 3.0 0.3 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 2.7 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.3 0.3 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.3 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 6.5 11.0 15.3 17.8 17.3 13.9 8.2 3.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-3 95.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 77.3% 3.0    1.8 1.0 0.1
13-5 41.8% 3.4    1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-6 15.0% 2.1    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 4.6 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 31.9% 31.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.2% 28.2% 28.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9
14-4 3.9% 26.8% 26.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.9
13-5 8.2% 21.0% 21.0% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 6.4
12-6 13.9% 19.6% 19.6% 15.8 0.4 2.3 11.2
11-7 17.3% 14.2% 14.2% 15.9 0.2 2.3 14.9
10-8 17.8% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 15.8
9-9 15.3% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.4 14.0
8-10 11.0% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.7 10.4
7-11 6.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 6.2
6-12 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-13 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 15.8 87.4 0.0%