California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#67
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#36
Pace70.4#167
Improvement+0.3#153

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#64
First Shot+6.7#30
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#280
Layup/Dunks-0.3#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#16
Freethrows-0.7#214
Improvement+0.4#136

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#88
First Shot+5.1#43
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#301
Layups/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+3.3#19
Improvement-0.2#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.0% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.9% 27.5% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.4% 26.9% 14.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.4
.500 or above 88.5% 92.1% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 43.2% 45.6% 33.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 5.2% 7.8%
First Four6.9% 7.3% 5.0%
First Round21.1% 23.4% 12.2%
Second Round9.1% 10.4% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 35 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 94%     1 - 0 +18.1 +6.8 +10.2
  Thu, Nov 6 146 Wright St. W 77-67 85%     2 - 0 +7.3 +3.9 +3.4
  Mon, Nov 10 324 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 96%     3 - 0 +16.3 +5.8 +7.9
  Thu, Nov 13 54 @Kansas St. L 96-99 34%     3 - 1 +9.7 +18.0 -8.0
  Tue, Nov 18 275 Presbyterian W 67-57 94%     4 - 1 +0.8 +5.3 -2.3
  Fri, Nov 21 272 Sacramento St. W 91-67 94%     5 - 1 +15.0 +7.9 +5.5
  Tue, Nov 25 32 UCLA W 80-72 31%     6 - 1 +21.4 +13.8 +7.5
  Tue, Dec 2 125 Utah W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Dec 6 144 Pacific W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Dec 13 285 Northwestern St. W 81-63 95%    
  Fri, Dec 19 360 Morgan St. W 90-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 134 Columbia W 80-71 81%    
  Tue, Dec 30 9 Louisville L 75-83 24%    
  Fri, Jan 2 66 Notre Dame W 73-70 59%    
  Wed, Jan 7 39 @Virginia L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 63 @Virginia Tech L 75-78 39%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 70-81 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 North Carolina L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 95 @Stanford L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 55 @Florida St. L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 44 @Miami (FL) L 74-80 28%    
  Wed, Feb 4 104 Georgia Tech W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 38 Clemson L 71-72 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 64 @Syracuse L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 127 @Boston College W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 95 Stanford W 81-75 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 42 SMU L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 99 Pittsburgh W 75-69 71%    
  Wed, Mar 4 104 @Georgia Tech W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Mar 7 37 @Wake Forest L 73-80 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.5 4.1 2.5 0.2 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.1 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.2 3.0 4.1 0.5 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.3 1.5 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.4 0.3 7.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.9 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.1 0.2 6.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.9 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.5 8.6 11.2 13.7 13.0 13.0 10.9 8.4 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 79.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 47.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
14-4 16.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.5% 98.0% 3.7% 94.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
13-5 3.1% 93.5% 4.1% 89.4% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 93.2%
12-6 5.3% 86.2% 2.4% 83.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.7 85.9%
11-7 8.4% 66.3% 1.4% 64.9% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.8 65.8%
10-8 10.9% 47.2% 0.6% 46.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 1.9 0.1 5.7 46.9%
9-9 13.0% 23.0% 0.4% 22.6% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.1 10.0 22.7%
8-10 13.0% 7.7% 0.3% 7.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 12.0 7.4%
7-11 13.7% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.4 2.0%
6-12 11.2% 11.2
5-13 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 5.5% 5.5
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 24.9% 0.8% 24.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 3.3 4.8 6.3 5.8 0.3 75.1 24.4%