Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +3.0 119
Results Rating +2.4 124
Consistency 0.13 97
Pace 73.3 57
Improvement +0.9 152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 138 C+ C C- B B+
Defense C+ 118 C+ B- C+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 73 B- 61% 99 +3.6 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 333 D 34% 314 -4.2 353
Three Pointers 47% 63 C 34% 185 +2.8 88
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 20 C +0.6 144
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 109
Second Chance C 29.9% 195 C 1.02 185 C 0.31 187
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 192
Other Turnovers C- 7.9% 253
Turnovers C- 17.4% 222
Freethrows B 0.35 48 C 72% 194 B 0.25 64
Total Offense C+ +1.0 138

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 156 C- 11.5% 215
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 121 F 10.6% 359
Three Pointers C+ 85% 160 D- 1.7% 336
Total B- 60% 80 D 6.8% 311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 178 C+ 57% 146 -0.3 166
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 80 C+ 37% 134 +0.9 265
Three Pointers 37% 277 C+ 33% 148 -2.1 88
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 107 C+ -1.2 135
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 126
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 112 C+ 0.99 124 B- 0.29 103
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 142
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 122
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 123
Freethrows D+ 0.34 290 C 72% 149 D+ 0.25 278
Total Defense C+ +2.0 118

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 149 C- 10.4% 195
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 257 D+ 3.6% 258
Three Pointers C 84% 183 C- 0.7% 212
Total C+ 54% 150 C- 5.1% 206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 55 17.5 216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 67 0.21 303
Consistency 0.12 142 0.10 33
Improvement -1.4 263 +2.3 64

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 139 119 103
Results Rating Rank 171 123 102
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 9 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.1 12.7
.500 or above 82% 100% 80%
.500 or above in Conference 80% 100% 79%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 23 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 58 - 14
Quad 48 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 335 Niagara W 83 - 63 94% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +5 C -0 A+ C- F B+ +5 B+ B B+
 Fri, Nov 7 284 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 88% +7  91% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B- +4 F A- A C- -3 B+ C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 199 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 78% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +1 F -13 D F F+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Villanova L 77 - 87 9% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 A+ D F+ C- -3 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 19 319 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 93% +12  99% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 B A+ F D+ -3 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 288 Northeastern L 86 - 93 84% -3  2% 4 - 2 D- -15 F+ -10 C+ F F D+ -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 139 William & Mary L 79 - 83 67% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 D A+ F C -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 219 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 81% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B +7 A F+ C D+ -4 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 68 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 20% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C C- -3 C D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @Nevada L 75 - 78 22% -5  21% 5 - 5 B- +8 B+ +8 C- A D C+ +0 A- F+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 343 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ C+ B- A- +8 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 110 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 36% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +9 C B- B B- +3 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 30% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -5 B +6 A+ F+ C- F -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 126 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 39% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C -1 B+ +9 A B D F+ -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 77 Dayton L 65 - 71 44% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C -1 C- -1 C F A- C -1 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 153 @Fordham W 74 - 63 49% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +3 B D+ D A+ +11 A B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 25 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +9 C +1 D A+ D A- +8 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 75% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B- +8 D+ -4 C+ F+ D+ A+ +12 A+ B D
 Wed, Jan 28 133 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 66% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -9 C -0 B+ F B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 131 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 65% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 B+ +14 B+ +8 A- B- C- A- +7 B- B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 109 @George Mason W 71 - 65 36% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +4 D+ A+ B- A +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 78 George Washington W 88 - 86 44% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +6 A +14 B+ C- A+ D- -8 D D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 133 @St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 44% +7  89% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B +10 C+ +3 C- F+ A+ B+ +7 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 18 212 La Salle W 62 - 61 80% +5  73% 14 - 10 8 - 5 D+ -5 F -14 C F F A +9 B- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 77 @Dayton L 66 - 78 23% -6  5% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 B- +4 D A+ B D -6 B F F
 Wed, Feb 25 110 Davidson L 56 - 67 59% -8  13% 14 - 12 8 - 7 D -10 F -14 F D- A B- +3 A- B C
 Sat, Feb 28 25 @Saint Louis L 73 - 89 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 131 @Rhode Island L 72 - 74 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 130 Richmond W 80 - 76 65%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3 C+ +1 A C B+ C+ +2 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D C C 43% 23% 47% B+ C+ C C C C- B C B C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ 39% 24% 37% C+ C+ C+ C+ B- C+ D+ C D+
1.10 61% 34% 34% +1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .31 17% .35 72% .25 1.06 57% 37% 33% -1 0 0.99 29% 1.0 .29 18% .34 72% .25
Nov
3		 Niagara C A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A+ D- A C- F F+ C D- B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 47% 23% 30% B- B+ B- A B B+ F F+ F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B A- A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B+ F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B- F D- 52% 12% 37% A- D F D+ F F+ A F C- A+ A D+ C+ B+ 32% 21% 47% B+ B+ C- A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D F+ A+ D- A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C+ F A F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland C+ A+ F C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B B B+ A A+ F A+ B- A+ D+ D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A F C+ D+ F+ A D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F+ C- A- A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C F F B- D- C D+ F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D- F D+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A+ F F+ 40% 4% 56% A- D A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A-
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B D+ A+ A+ A 38% 11% 51% B+ A B+ F F+ C A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B+ 36% 13% 52% D+ B D C D+ F B- F+ C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ F+ D A+ C+ C B F C C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F D+ F+ B- F C-
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B+ D A D- D 42% 4% 54% A+ C- A C A D B A+ A+ C+ A+ D D+ A- 43% 40% 17% A A- C+ F F+ D+ F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ C+ B- D B C- A- C+ C- D+ D- 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C 31% 17% 52% B- C B- B- B- B C+ A+ A- B- C+ A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A A+ D+ A F A F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ F A F F+ A- C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B+ B A+ C- A 35% 18% 47% B A B+ C B D C+ A+ B+ F+ C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D A C+ F+ F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C B- D- D+ 39% 11% 50% A C D F F A- A+ B- A+ C B A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C- A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C+ C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B D- B+ D+ D A+ C- A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D- A+ B C+ C- A+ C+
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C D+ F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D A+ A- A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% C+ A A- F D+ A F A+ D-
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F B+ C 43% 15% 43% B+ C+ F B+ F+ D+ A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A+ F B D D+ F+ D-
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -11 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F B+ A F C- F+ B F F F 43% 29% 29% C F A+ F A F F D F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ D+ F A+ A- 41% 2% 56% A A- B C- B- C- A- A+ A+ A- D+ A+ D C+ 29% 22% 49% A B- A- B- B+ C+ C+ A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- F+ F B D 39% 20% 41% B- D+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A F A+ F+ D- 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B+ F C- A+ A+ B+ A+ D- D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ D+ A+ D F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33
Feb
14		 St. Bonaventure C+ C F C+ C- 39% 12% 49% B C- F+ D+ F+ A+ D+ F D- B+ C- C- A+ B 41% 43% 16% A+ B+ B D C B+ F B F
1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17 1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29
Feb
18		 La Salle F A A+ F D+ 48% 10% 43% A- C F F F F A+ C A+ A A+ C- C B- 38% 22% 40% C- B- C+ A B+ A+ D A+ B-
0.90 70% 75% 17% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.8 .15 26% .43 68% .29 0.88 41% 40% 33% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .26 26% .37 58% .21
Feb
21		 Dayton B- C- F A D 34% 27% 39% C- D B+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ D A+ F B+ B 45% 16% 39% C B F F F F F C+ F
1.03 53% 8% 41% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.2 .44 20% .47 75% .35 1.21 45% 71% 29% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.5 .52 12% .57 75% .43
Feb
25		 Davidson F F+ D- F F 55% 6% 40% A+ F D- D- D- A D- C- D B- C A+ A- A+ 49% 13% 38% F A- D+ A B C F D+ F
0.85 48% 33% 19% -15 +3 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 14% .25 64% .16 1.02 59% 17% 29% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .28 17% .40 68% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 1.3 1.2 2.4 4th
5th 2.8 17.0 1.1 20.9 5th
6th 0.1 17.2 10.0 0.0 27.4 6th
7th 2.7 26.9 1.6 31.2 7th
8th 9.0 0.9 9.9 8th
9th 7.8 7.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 19.8 47.8 29.8 2.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
10-8 29.8% 1.1% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 29.5
9-9 47.8% 1.0% 1.0% 12.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 47.4
8-10 19.8% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.6 99.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 11.8%