Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#190
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#147
Pace67.2#253
Improvement+2.9#14

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#107
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#47
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#98
Freethrows-1.2#251
Improvement+0.7#105

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#325
First Shot-4.1#314
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#206
Layups/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#338
Freethrows+0.9#131
Improvement+2.2#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 7.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 54.5% 63.5% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 59.3% 44.4%
Conference Champion 6.2% 7.4% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 5.0% 8.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.0% 7.2% 3.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 75 - 12
Quad 411 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 287 @UNC Greensboro W 92-90 OT 58%     1 - 0 -1.8 +11.9 -13.8
  Wed, Nov 12 183 @Marshall L 89-96 38%     1 - 1 -5.7 +9.7 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 15 356 Gardner-Webb W 95-84 90%     2 - 1 -5.0 +8.2 -14.1
  Thu, Nov 20 44 @Miami (FL) L 72-99 7%     2 - 2 -12.2 +4.2 -15.2
  Mon, Nov 24 279 @Appalachian St. W 88-53 56%     3 - 2 +31.6 +26.6 +10.2
  Sat, Nov 29 206 Mercer W 83-79 65%    
  Wed, Dec 3 160 Furman W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Dec 6 225 @Wofford L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Dec 13 280 Northern Illinois W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Dec 17 115 Richmond L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Dec 20 63 @Virginia Tech L 71-84 11%    
  Mon, Dec 29 200 Northeastern W 77-73 63%    
  Wed, Dec 31 151 College of Charleston W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 313 @N.C. A&T W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 219 Campbell W 80-75 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 200 @Northeastern L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 162 @Hofstra L 72-76 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 128 Towson L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 151 @College of Charleston L 73-78 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 130 William & Mary L 83-84 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 251 Stony Brook W 76-70 70%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 @Hampton L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 262 Drexel W 74-67 72%    
  Thu, Feb 12 113 @UNC Wilmington L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 130 @William & Mary L 80-87 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 313 N.C. A&T W 81-72 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 128 @Towson L 67-74 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 201 @Monmouth L 73-75 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 113 UNC Wilmington L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 4.2 1.5 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.9 0.3 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.5 3.2 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.7 2.4 0.3 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 6.3 9.1 11.1 12.4 13.1 12.2 9.8 8.0 5.5 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.2% 0.7    0.7 0.0
15-3 89.8% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 61.6% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.4% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 38.6% 38.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 33.0% 33.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.7% 25.3% 25.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
14-4 2.9% 21.8% 21.8% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
13-5 5.5% 17.2% 17.2% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 8.0% 14.5% 14.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 6.8
11-7 9.8% 10.3% 10.3% 14.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.8
10-8 12.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.5
9-9 13.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.7
8-10 12.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.2
7-11 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 94.0 0.0%