Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #169
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #158
Pace 67.7 #225
Improvement +1.5 #104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #95 B+ B- C+ C A+
Defense #307 D D+ C- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.22 #114 +5.8 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.69 #263 -4.9 #360
Three Pointers 46% #90 1.11 #54 +4.7 #38
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #48 +5.6 #47
Freethrows 18.0 #147 69% #288 12.4 #197
Second Chance 33.7% #97 1.06 #162 0.36 #99
Turnovers 15.6% #120
Total Offense +3.4 #95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.08 #87 +3.2 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.83 #295 +1.0 #122
Three Pointers 48% #31 1.17 #349 -7.3 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #282 -3.0 #275
Freethrows 16.5 #139 70% #98 11.6 #236
Second Chance 32.9% #270 1.10 #260 0.36 #280
Turnovers 15.5% #248
Total Defense -4.3 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.4% #5 0.5% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #83 6.1% #292
Possession Length 17.3 #170 17.6 #243
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #197 0.17 #162
Improvement -1.3 #264 +2.8 #42

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 8.4% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 77.2% 86.9% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 85.7% 64.5%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.0% 8.4% 5.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 410 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 288 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 63% +1  1 - 0 -2 +9 C+ D- A+ -12 F A D+
 Wed, Nov 12 171 @Marshall L 89 - 96 39% -6  1 - 1 -5 +9 B+ B A- -14 F F C
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  2 - 1 -8 +6 A+ B F -15 F D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 35 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 6% -10  2 - 2 -10 +3 A+ D- F -12 D+ F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 223 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 48% +17  3 - 2 +35 +30 C A+ A+ +10 B+ A C-
 Sat, Nov 29 153 Mercer L 84 - 91 57% -1  3 - 3 -10 +1 D D+ F -10 C- A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 147 Furman L 88 - 97 56% +1  3 - 4 -11 +12 B C+ A+ -23 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 228 @Wofford W 73 - 52 49% +21  4 - 4 +20 +9 A+ F D- +15 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 331 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 88% -4  5 - 4 -8 +6 C+ F A+ -13 D+ D F
 Wed, Dec 17 116 Richmond W 73 - 70 46% -2  6 - 4 +3 +3 A+ F F +0 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 64 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 12% +6  6 - 5 +11 +14 A+ A+ F -4 B+ F A
 Mon, Dec 29 236 Northeastern W 103 - 91 73% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +5 +21 A+ A+ D -17 F D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 155 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 57% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +2 C C A+ -9 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 302 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 67% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 -0 -4 F C+ C +4 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 191 Campbell W 83 - 82 65% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -4 +10 A- A+ B+ -14 F A F
 Thu, Jan 15 236 @Northeastern W 81 - 80 51%
 Sat, Jan 17 110 @Hofstra L 70 - 78 22%
 Thu, Jan 22 166 Towson W 73 - 70 60%
 Sat, Jan 24 155 @College of Charleston L 76 - 80 35%
 Thu, Jan 29 138 William & Mary W 83 - 82 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 274 Stony Brook W 76 - 67 79%
 Thu, Feb 5 242 @Hampton W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 238 Drexel W 74 - 67 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 118 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 138 @William & Mary L 80 - 85 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 302 N.C. A&T W 83 - 73 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 166 @Towson L 70 - 73 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 @Monmouth L 73 - 75 42%
 Tue, Mar 3 118 UNC Wilmington L 74 - 75 48%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1 +3 B+ B- C+ -4 D D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.8 5.1 6.1 2.2 0.2 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.1 7.4 2.5 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 8.0 2.9 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 6.8 3.9 0.3 12.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.4 4.8 0.7 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 4.7 1.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.6 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.3 7.6 12.3 16.7 18.3 16.4 12.2 7.1 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 89.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 79.5% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.5% 1.4    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.2% 26.8% 26.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9
14-4 3.3% 22.1% 22.1% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
13-5 7.1% 17.2% 17.2% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 5.8
12-6 12.2% 12.0% 12.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.7
11-7 16.4% 9.1% 9.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 14.9
10-8 18.3% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 17.4
9-9 16.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 16.2
8-10 12.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.1
7-11 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.5
6-12 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 13.9 93.0 0.0%