Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#111
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#85
Pace68.6#219
Improvement+2.1#38

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#76
First Shot+4.3#64
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#186
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#95
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement+0.7#106

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#181
First Shot-2.1#247
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#99
Layups/Dunks+1.0#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#224
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement+1.4#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 75.3% 83.1% 62.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.8% 73.1% 61.5%
Conference Champion 9.1% 10.8% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.8% 3.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round7.8% 9.0% 5.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 53 - 7
Quad 38 - 411 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 127 Boston College W 83-78 OT 66%     1 - 0 +4.2 +2.2 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 8 151 College of Charleston W 94-77 64%     2 - 0 +16.9 +24.3 -6.7
  Sun, Nov 9 97 @Liberty L 68-88 32%     2 - 1 -11.7 -0.5 -11.9
  Thu, Nov 20 144 Pacific W 82-59 72%     3 - 1 +20.5 +14.2 +8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 114 Loyola Marymount W 76-65 51%     4 - 1 +14.2 +13.6 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 25 74 George Mason L 65-74 34%     4 - 2 -1.3 +7.6 -10.4
  Sun, Nov 30 119 St. Bonaventure W 74-71 63%    
  Sun, Dec 7 164 @Florida Gulf Coast W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Dec 13 325 Albany W 82-67 92%    
  Fri, Dec 19 30 @St. Mary's L 64-77 12%    
  Wed, Dec 31 231 Texas San Antonio W 82-71 84%    
  Sun, Jan 4 152 @Tulane W 78-77 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 107 @UAB L 77-81 37%    
  Sun, Jan 11 70 Memphis L 77-78 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 92 Wichita St. W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Jan 18 148 @Temple W 80-79 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 152 Tulane W 81-74 73%    
  Sun, Jan 25 81 @South Florida L 78-85 28%    
  Thu, Jan 29 70 @Memphis L 74-81 25%    
  Sun, Feb 1 259 East Carolina W 82-70 86%    
  Wed, Feb 4 91 Tulsa W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Feb 11 213 @Rice W 74-70 64%    
  Sun, Feb 15 81 South Florida L 81-82 49%    
  Wed, Feb 18 231 @Texas San Antonio W 79-74 66%    
  Sun, Feb 22 123 @North Texas L 67-69 41%    
  Wed, Feb 25 148 Temple W 82-76 72%    
  Sun, Mar 1 196 Charlotte W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Mar 7 92 @Wichita St. L 73-78 33%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.5 2.4 0.2 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.4 3.0 0.3 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.5 4.1 0.5 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.6 0.9 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.0 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.1 11.1 12.9 13.5 12.9 11.2 8.1 5.6 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.6% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.5% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 83.0% 2.5    1.7 0.8 0.0
14-4 51.9% 2.9    1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.2% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 4.8 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 51.0% 30.6% 20.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 29.4%
16-2 1.2% 41.2% 35.4% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 8.9%
15-3 3.0% 27.3% 25.7% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 2.1%
14-4 5.6% 21.6% 21.4% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 4.4 0.3%
13-5 8.1% 15.5% 15.5% 11.9 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.9
12-6 11.2% 12.3% 12.2% 0.1% 12.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.8 0.1%
11-7 12.9% 8.8% 8.8% 12.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.8
10-8 13.5% 5.0% 5.0% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 12.8
9-9 12.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-10 11.1% 1.8% 1.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.9
7-11 8.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0
6-12 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.6% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 92.1 0.3%