Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #102
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #96
Pace 72.9 #79
Improvement +2.0 #78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #103 B B+ D+ C C+
Defense #100 C A- C C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.17 #162 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #242 1.07 #3 +1.5 #98
Three Pointers 44% #122 1.03 #164 +1.9 #124
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #85 +3.6 #84
Freethrows 16.8 #224 74% #156 12.4 #199
Second Chance 33.9% #93 1.15 #66 0.39 #64
Turnovers 17.7% #252
Total Offense +2.7 #103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.04 #49 -0.5 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.68 #78 +2.0 #50
Three Pointers 39% #229 1.11 #299 -1.0 #224
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #165 +0.6 #163
Freethrows 18.5 #240 73% #204 13.5 #123
Second Chance 25.9% #36 0.94 #63 0.24 #32
Turnovers 16.9% #156
Total Defense +2.4 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #130 1.7% #327
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #81 -2.8% #133
Possession Length 15.7 #48 17.8 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #58 0.16 #138
Improvement -2.0 #300 +4.0 #13

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.9% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 94.1% 97.4% 88.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 97.0% 87.5%
Conference Champion 22.7% 29.5% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round12.2% 13.9% 9.4%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 8
Quad 39 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 151 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 77% +2  1 - 0 +2 +2 A F C -0 B- F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 155 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 68% +15  2 - 0 +17 +24 B A+ A- -7 C A+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 95 @Liberty L 68 - 88 36% -15  2 - 1 -11 -0 F A+ D+ -12 F B- C
 Thu, Nov 20 144 Pacific W 82 - 59 75% +11  3 - 1 +21 +14 A+ F F +9 B A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 130 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 63% +7  4 - 1 +13 +12 A+ B- F +1 B+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 86 George Mason L 65 - 74 44% -11  4 - 2 -2 +6 B D- C- -10 F A- F
 Sun, Nov 30 127 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 72% -2  4 - 3 -6 -5 F B- F -1 F A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 201 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 67% -0  5 - 3 +6 +7 F C C- -1 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 309 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  6 - 3 +14 +11 A+ F D- +0 D A+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 42 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 17% -10  6 - 4 +2 +3 D+ A- F +1 B A- B-
 Tue, Dec 23 50 Central Florida L 80 - 85 30% +1  6 - 5 +6 +4 C A+ B +2 B- A C+
 Wed, Dec 31 332 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 95% +27  7 - 5 1 - 0 +26 +20 A+ A- F +2 B B C
 Sun, Jan 4 158 @Tulane L 66 - 69 58% +1  7 - 6 1 - 1 +0 -5 F B F +5 B+ D B-
 Wed, Jan 7 115 @UAB W 76 - 71 44% +7  8 - 6 2 - 1 +12 +2 F A- C +9 A+ B- A
 Sun, Jan 11 83 Memphis W 89 - 78 55% +8  9 - 6 3 - 1 +15 +12 A A+ C +2 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 105 Wichita St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Sun, Jan 18 140 @Temple W 78 - 77 53%
 Wed, Jan 21 158 Tulane W 79 - 71 78%
 Sun, Jan 25 75 @South Florida L 79 - 85 30%
 Thu, Jan 29 83 @Memphis L 73 - 78 32%
 Sun, Feb 1 262 East Carolina W 82 - 68 90%
 Wed, Feb 4 93 Tulsa W 81 - 79 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 247 @Rice W 77 - 70 74%
 Sun, Feb 15 75 South Florida W 82 - 81 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 332 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 69 88%
 Sun, Feb 22 137 @North Texas W 68 - 67 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 140 Temple W 81 - 74 73%
 Sun, Mar 1 170 Charlotte W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 105 @Wichita St. L 73 - 76 40%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +5 +3 B B+ D+ +2 C A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 6.5 8.2 5.0 1.6 0.3 22.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.0 8.1 2.3 0.3 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.0 8.0 1.8 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 7.7 2.4 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.2 4.0 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.8 0.6 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 1.6 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.4 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.3 8.5 13.9 18.1 18.7 16.4 10.6 5.2 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
15-3 94.9% 5.0    4.3 0.7 0.0
14-4 77.6% 8.2    4.7 3.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 39.2% 6.5    1.5 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 6.3% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 12.4 7.0 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.3% 30.9% 25.0% 5.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.8%
16-2 1.6% 30.9% 30.9% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 5.2% 22.9% 22.6% 0.3% 11.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 4.0 0.4%
14-4 10.6% 21.0% 21.0% 11.8 0.6 1.5 0.1 8.4
13-5 16.4% 16.1% 16.1% 12.0 0.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.8
12-6 18.7% 13.6% 13.6% 12.2 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 16.2
11-7 18.1% 9.9% 9.9% 12.4 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.0 16.3
10-8 13.9% 6.0% 6.0% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.1
9-9 8.5% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-10 4.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-11 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 12.1 87.8 0.0%