Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.4 #201
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #260
Pace 69.9 #156
Improvement -2.1 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 B C C D- D-
Defense #286 D C C F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.22 #109 -1.2 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #67 0.91 #27 +4.5 #22
Three Pointers 39% #229 1.08 #93 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #91 +3.5 #90
Freethrows 14.8 #304 70% #255 10.4 #307
Second Chance 30.8% #182 1.02 #207 0.32 #174
Turnovers 16.3% #156
Total Offense +1.2 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #150 1.17 #197 -1.1 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #320 0.73 #142 +2.0 #54
Three Pointers 44% #86 1.13 #326 -4.4 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #288 -3.5 #286
Freethrows 22.1 #349 77% #337 17.0 #11
Second Chance 30.5% #171 1.06 #211 0.32 #188
Turnovers 16.9% #163
Total Defense -3.6 #286

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #308 1.5% #300
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #52 5.3% #279
Possession Length 17.0 #150 17.1 #158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #74 0.19 #224
Improvement -1.9 #297 -0.2 #196

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.4% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 55.5% 66.3% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 89.8% 70.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 7.4% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four3.0% 2.5% 3.9%
First Round13.5% 15.4% 10.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Illinois L 70 - 113 2% -31  0 - 1 -19 +3 C- F A+ -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 230 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 66% -3  0 - 2 -8 +12 C A+ C+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 267 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 74% +13  1 - 2 +9 +14 C+ A+ A+ -5 C B C
 Wed, Nov 19 240 @Samford W 77 - 62 47% +9  2 - 2 +13 +3 B A+ F +11 A C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 298 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 79% +0  3 - 2 -6 +10 A+ A- C -17 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 247 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 70% -4  4 - 2 +7 -8 D- D F +14 A B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 159 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 52% -0  4 - 3 -5 +6 B C- B -11 F A A
 Wed, Dec 3 172 @Florida International L 83 - 89 33% -6  4 - 4 -4 +4 C D+ B- -8 C D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 102 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 33% +0  4 - 5 -3 +5 B- B- F -8 A B C
 Sun, Dec 14 48 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 7% -5  4 - 6 -2 -4 C- D B+ +2 A+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 50 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 8% -5  4 - 7 -8 +10 A+ D- F -18 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 1 265 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 52% +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +17 A+ C B- -22 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 279 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 55% +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +13 -1 B+ F F +15 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 180 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 58% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -16 -1 B- C D -15 D F C
 Sat, Jan 10 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 55% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +1 B- D+ B+ -12 F D A
 Thu, Jan 15 202 Queens W 84 - 81 61%
 Sat, Jan 17 320 West Georgia W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Jan 22 180 @Austin Peay L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Jan 24 167 @Lipscomb L 76 - 81 33%
 Thu, Jan 29 279 North Alabama W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 305 @Jacksonville W 73 - 70 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 78 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 294 @Bellarmine W 81 - 79 59%
 Wed, Feb 11 350 North Florida W 92 - 78 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 345 Stetson W 83 - 71 87%
 Thu, Feb 19 305 Jacksonville W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 265 Central Arkansas W 80 - 74 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 350 @North Florida W 89 - 81 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 345 @Stetson W 80 - 74 72%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2 +1 B C C -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.0 0.6 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.4 5.0 1.3 0.1 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 6.1 7.9 2.5 0.2 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 7.2 9.3 3.1 0.3 21.0 4th
5th 0.5 5.2 7.7 2.6 0.1 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 6.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.1 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.3 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.8 9.6 14.9 18.5 19.2 16.3 9.4 3.5 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 87.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 57.1% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.3% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 38.9% 38.9% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 3.5% 27.8% 27.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.5
13-5 9.4% 25.5% 25.5% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.2 7.0
12-6 16.3% 19.8% 19.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.8 13.0
11-7 19.2% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5 0.1 1.4 1.8 16.0
10-8 18.5% 13.4% 13.4% 15.8 0.6 1.9 16.0
9-9 14.9% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4 13.5
8-10 9.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.5 9.1
7-11 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 4.6
6-12 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.1
5-13 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.3 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.1 23.5 45.1 29.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%