Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#164
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#200
Pace71.1#148
Improvement+1.8#50

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#127
First Shot-0.7#191
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#75
Layup/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows-1.6#275
Improvement-1.4#309

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#234
First Shot-3.8#305
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#80
Layups/Dunks-3.0#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows-2.3#305
Improvement+3.3#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 23.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 85.1% 92.5% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 93.5% 88.2%
Conference Champion 28.9% 33.7% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round20.2% 22.6% 17.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 415 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 13 @Illinois L 70-113 3%     0 - 1 -22.0 +1.5 -20.7
  Tue, Nov 11 246 Georgia Southern L 94-95 75%     0 - 2 -8.8 +13.4 -22.2
  Sat, Nov 15 188 Chattanooga W 91-73 65%     1 - 2 +13.2 +14.9 -1.5
  Wed, Nov 19 221 @Samford W 77-62 50%     2 - 2 +14.3 +3.9 +10.7
  Mon, Nov 24 296 Oral Roberts W 93-88 82%     3 - 2 -5.4 +8.0 -13.7
  Tue, Nov 25 213 Rice W 78-63 OT 71%     4 - 2 +8.7 -7.1 +14.0
  Wed, Nov 26 163 Kennesaw St. L 100-102 OT 61%     4 - 3 -5.7 +4.4 -9.7
  Wed, Dec 3 215 @Florida International L 76-77 49%    
  Sun, Dec 7 111 Florida Atlantic L 77-78 46%    
  Sun, Dec 14 101 @New Mexico L 76-84 21%    
  Sat, Dec 20 68 @Central Florida L 77-89 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 317 @Central Arkansas W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 242 @North Alabama W 75-74 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 165 Austin Peay W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 176 Lipscomb W 77-73 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 210 Queens W 83-78 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 311 West Georgia W 81-71 82%    
  Thu, Jan 22 165 @Austin Peay L 73-76 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 176 @Lipscomb L 74-76 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 242 North Alabama W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 269 @Jacksonville W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 294 @Bellarmine W 80-76 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 341 North Florida W 90-77 88%    
  Sat, Feb 14 344 Stetson W 83-69 89%    
  Thu, Feb 19 269 Jacksonville W 76-68 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 317 Central Arkansas W 81-70 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 341 @North Florida W 87-80 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 344 @Stetson W 80-72 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.3 8.2 5.7 2.5 0.6 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.3 7.3 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.5 2.1 0.2 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.3 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.4 6.9 10.6 12.7 14.4 14.7 12.8 9.7 5.9 2.5 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.5    2.4 0.0
16-2 96.7% 5.7    5.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.8% 8.2    6.2 1.9 0.2
14-4 57.0% 7.3    3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 25.6% 3.8    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.3 7.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 65.0% 65.0% 12.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.5% 50.9% 50.9% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2
16-2 5.9% 41.9% 41.9% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.4
15-3 9.7% 35.2% 35.2% 14.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 6.3
14-4 12.8% 28.3% 28.3% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 9.2
13-5 14.7% 23.2% 23.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.5 11.3
12-6 14.4% 18.8% 18.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.8 11.7
11-7 12.7% 13.4% 13.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 11.0
10-8 10.6% 9.8% 9.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.6
9-9 6.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.3
8-10 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.3
7-11 2.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.0 7.5 3.9 79.1 0.0%