Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#153
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#145
Pace74.0#81
Improvement+3.4#12

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#189
First Shot+1.6#131
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#319
Layup/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement+2.8#9

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot+2.5#93
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#292
Layups/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#64
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement+0.6#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 36.4% 40.8% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.8% 26.7% 17.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 7.4% 11.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 36 - 68 - 15
Quad 47 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 316 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 85%     0 - 1 -12.3 -12.6 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 8 298 Long Beach St. W 82-62 84%     1 - 1 +9.4 +2.3 +6.7
  Wed, Nov 12 96 UC San Diego L 73-78 40%     1 - 2 -2.6 -1.5 -1.0
  Sat, Nov 15 89 Utah Valley W 75-74 38%     2 - 2 +4.0 +3.9 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 18 139 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 56%     3 - 2 +0.3 +9.7 -9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 205 New Orleans W 85-76 71%     4 - 2 +3.1 +1.3 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 26 264 Pepperdine W 76-53 70%     5 - 2 +17.5 +3.7 +14.2
  Sun, Nov 30 271 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Dec 6 25 @Arkansas L 69-86 5%    
  Wed, Dec 10 220 @Cal St. Northridge W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Dec 20 129 @UNLV L 79-84 31%    
  Tue, Dec 30 35 Utah St. L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 122 Nevada W 75-74 50%    
  Tue, Jan 6 187 @San Jose St. L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 57 @San Diego St. L 69-82 12%    
  Tue, Jan 13 87 Colorado St. L 72-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 117 Wyoming L 75-76 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 101 @New Mexico L 75-83 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 98 Grand Canyon L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 @Air Force W 72-67 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 129 UNLV W 82-81 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 122 @Nevada L 72-78 30%    
  Tue, Feb 10 35 @Utah St. L 69-85 8%    
  Sat, Feb 14 323 Air Force W 75-64 85%    
  Tue, Feb 17 117 @Wyoming L 73-79 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 101 New Mexico L 78-80 44%    
  Tue, Feb 24 87 @Colorado St. L 69-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 61 Boise St. L 68-74 28%    
  Tue, Mar 3 187 San Jose St. W 75-70 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 98 @Grand Canyon L 71-79 23%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 1.9 0.3 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.9 0.3 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.3 4.3 1.0 0.1 17.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 15.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.2 6.9 10.4 12.0 14.0 13.9 11.8 9.4 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 59.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 18.2% 18.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 12.8% 10.8% 2.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2%
14-6 1.2% 5.1% 5.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 11.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4
12-8 4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
11-9 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
10-10 9.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3
9-11 11.8% 0.5% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
8-12 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
7-13 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 10.4% 10.4
4-16 6.9% 6.9
3-17 4.2% 4.2
2-18 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%