Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #152
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #192
Pace 71.7 #105
Improvement +1.8 #90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #233 C C- D C- B
Defense #99 C+ B B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.21 #118 +3.0 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.68 #280 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 42% #164 0.98 #221 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #168 +0.6 #167
Freethrows 16.0 #261 75% #88 12.0 #217
Second Chance 29.8% #215 0.97 #263 0.29 #248
Turnovers 18.6% #299
Total Offense -2.3 #233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.30 #327 -0.6 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.77 #197 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 46% #46 0.83 #11 +1.6 #122
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #125 +1.7 #123
Freethrows 14.6 #53 72% #151 10.5 #311
Second Chance 25.6% #31 1.04 #173 0.27 #53
Turnovers 18.7% #68
Total Defense +2.6 #99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #76 0.1% #170
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #184 -3.3% #123
Possession Length 16.1 #69 16.6 #77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #138 0.22 #315
Improvement -1.3 #265 +3.1 #31

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 10.1% 17.4% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 12.9% 22.0% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 52 - 11
Quad 35 - 57 - 16
Quad 46 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 299 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 85% +4  0 - 1 -12 -11 F A D- -1 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 264 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 81% +10  1 - 1 +11 +3 A+ F F +8 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 109 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 47% -4  1 - 2 -4 -1 B+ F F -3 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 101 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 43% -4  2 - 2 +3 +3 A+ D F -0 C B C
 Tue, Nov 18 108 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 46% -1  3 - 2 +3 +13 A+ B+ F -9 D+ F A
 Fri, Nov 21 245 New Orleans W 85 - 76 78% +4  4 - 2 +1 -3 C A+ F +3 B+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 286 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 76% +7  5 - 2 +16 +3 B- B- A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 293 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 85% +4  5 - 3 -16 -7 F A+ F -8 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 26 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 6% -15  5 - 4 -6 -11 F F F +7 C A+ D
 Wed, Dec 10 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 51% -4  5 - 5 -2 +13 A+ F C -15 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 134 @UNLV L 72 - 84 34% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -8 +3 C C+ B -11 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 28 Utah St. L 63 - 72 14% -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +3 -11 D+ F D +14 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 85 Nevada L 65 - 66 37% +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +3 -3 B- C F +5 A- B A-
 Tue, Jan 6 227 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 53% +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +3 C C F +13 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 11% -15  6 - 9 1 - 4 -6 -16 F F D +11 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 97 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 42% +7  7 - 9 2 - 4 +12 +13 C C+ A +1 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 96 Wyoming L 74 - 76 42%
 Wed, Jan 21 48 @New Mexico L 67 - 81 10%
 Sat, Jan 24 90 Grand Canyon L 69 - 72 39%
 Sat, Jan 31 342 @Air Force W 71 - 62 79%
 Tue, Feb 3 134 UNLV W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @Nevada L 67 - 76 19%
 Tue, Feb 10 28 @Utah St. L 66 - 84 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 342 Air Force W 74 - 59 91%
 Tue, Feb 17 96 @Wyoming L 71 - 79 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 48 New Mexico L 70 - 78 24%
 Tue, Feb 24 97 @Colorado St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 78 Boise St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 227 San Jose St. W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 90 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 75 21%
Totals 12 - 18 7 - 13 +0 -2 C C- D +3 C+ B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 5.6 2.7 0.2 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.6 8.0 5.2 0.5 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.3 9.5 7.8 1.3 0.0 22.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 6.9 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.1 32.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.7 10.0 17.3 21.5 20.0 14.0 7.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 12.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
10-10 7.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
9-11 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
8-12 20.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 20.0
7-13 21.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
6-14 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
5-15 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.5 99.7 0.0%