Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +2.1 129
Results Rating -0.3 162
Consistency 0.11 21
Pace 71.1 111
Improvement +0.9 155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 174 C+ C- C- C C+
Defense B- 103 B- C B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 C+ 61% 107 +1.8 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 164 C 38% 178 -0.5 209
Three Pointers 41% 175 C 33% 209 -0.3 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 152 C +0.6 141
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 145
Second Chance C 29.7% 200 C- 1.00 220 C- 0.30 210
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 242
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 250
Turnovers C- 17.8% 253
Freethrows C- 0.29 219 B- 75% 85 C 0.22 176
Total Offense C -0.5 174

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 162 B- 9.5% 102
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 321 D+ 6.9% 298
Three Pointers C+ 85% 167 C- 1.1% 235
Total C 55% 200 C 5.6% 185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 D 63% 316 -0.7 148
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 214 C 38% 174 -0.6 140
Three Pointers 46% 41 A 28% 4 -1.5 120
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 141 B- -2.5 78
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 90
Second Chance B- 28.2% 97 D+ 1.09 268 C 0.31 169
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 115
Other Turnovers B+ 8.6% 41
Turnovers B 19.0% 57
Freethrows B 0.26 41 C- 73% 221 B 0.19 51
Total Defense B- +2.7 103

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 37 D- 6.1% 343
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 143 C 5.0% 160
Three Pointers C+ 83% 148 D+ 0.5% 263
Total B- 50% 75 D- 3.3% 338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 162 17.0 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 120 0.21 320
Consistency 0.12 173 0.13 211
Improvement +2.3 75 -1.4 262

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 150 131 114
Results Rating Rank 215 159 135
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 10 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.5
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 21 - 71 - 13
Quad 35 - 36 - 16
Quad 47 - 213 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 300 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 89% +4  72% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -13 F B+ D+ C+ +1 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 265 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 85% +10  77% 1 - 1 B +11 C +1 A+ F F A +10 A A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 132 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 63% -4  18% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ D+ F+ D+ -4 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 96 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 48% -4  10% 2 - 2 C+ +4 C +1 A+ D F+ B- +2 C- B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 103 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 53% -1  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ B- D D -5 C F A
 Fri, Nov 21 193 New Orleans W 85 - 76 75% +4  88% 4 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -2 C- A+ F B+ +6 B C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 280 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 80% +7  44% 5 - 2 A- +16 C- -2 B- C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 332 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 93% +4  72% 5 - 3 F -19 F -12 F A+ F D- -7 C B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 15 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 4% -15  0% 5 - 4 C- -2 F -13 F D- F A+ +12 B A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 157 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 47% -4  19% 5 - 5 C +1 A +12 A+ F+ C+ F -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 122 @UNLV L 72 - 84 36% -4  18% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ B+ C D+ -5 F F B+
 Tue, Dec 30 33 Utah St. L 63 - 72 19% -7  7% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 F -14 D F D- A+ +17 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 73 Nevada L 65 - 66 39% +2  82% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +4 D+ -3 B B F A- +7 B+ C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 221 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 60% +11  97% 6 - 8 1 - 3 A- +15 C- -1 C+ C+ F A+ +17 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 44 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 12% -15  0% 6 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 F -16 D- F D+ A+ +13 A+ F D
 Tue, Jan 13 92 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 47% +7  92% 7 - 9 2 - 4 B+ +13 A- +11 C B- A B- +3 B- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 100 Wyoming W 63 - 60 51% -2  17% 8 - 9 3 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 C+ F A- A +8 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 52 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 14% -11  1% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B- +5 C- -2 C+ C+ F A- +8 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 61 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 36% -5  3% 8 - 11 3 - 6 D+ -5 F+ -9 F F C B- +3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Air Force W 79 - 62 88% +8  86% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +6 C- -2 C+ F C+ A- +8 B B B
 Tue, Feb 3 122 UNLV W 98 - 96 59% -4  17% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ C- D+ D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 73 @Nevada L 59 - 69 20% +2  67% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C +1 D -5 F+ C- A B +5 A+ D- D
 Tue, Feb 10 33 @Utah St. L 78 - 91 8% -10  14% 10 - 13 5 - 8 C+ +4 A- +9 C- A- A+ D -5 B- F D
 Sat, Feb 14 350 Air Force W 93 - 63 95% +17  98% 11 - 13 6 - 8 B+ +13 B +7 C+ A+ B B +5 C+ A- A-
 Tue, Feb 17 100 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 29% -2  38% 11 - 14 6 - 9 C- -2 A+ +15 A- A+ B+ F -18 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 52 New Mexico L 78 - 80 29% +8  76% 11 - 15 6 - 10 B- +6 A- +10 A+ B- B+ D+ -5 C- B+ D+
 Tue, Feb 24 92 @Colorado St. L 70 - 74 26% +4  72% 11 - 16 6 - 11 B- +5 C- -1 B- D D B+ +5 A- D- D+
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Boise St. L 71 - 75 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 221 San Jose St. W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 61 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 76 18%
Totals 12 - 18 7 - 13 +2 C -1 B+ C C+ B- +3 C B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C C C 40% 39% 41% C+ C+ C C- C- C- C- B- C B- D C A B- 34% 19% 46% C B- B- D+ C B B C- B
1.08 61% 38% 33% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 18% .29 75% .22 1.05 63% 38% 28% -3 0 0.97 28% 1.1 .31 19% .26 73% .21
Nov
5		 South Carolina Upstate F F D+ F F 41% 12% 47% B- F C+ A B+ D+ A D+ B+ C+ C- F A- D- 43% 25% 32% C+ D- C- F D- A+ D- B+ D
0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26 0.95 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23
Nov
8		 Long Beach St. C A A A A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F F A+ C A+ A C+ D A+ A 30% 26% 43% C- A B A A- A F D F
1.15 71% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.28 36% 0.6 .21 22% .50 75% .38 0.87 57% 42% 20% -8 -1 0.83 22% 0.9 .19 22% .41 78% .32
Nov
12		 UC San Diego C- D B+ B- C+ 41% 18% 41% C+ C+ B+ F D+ F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B+ F+ 27% 10% 63% B- D- F C+ D- A+ B- A+ A
1.03 50% 44% 35% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28 1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11
Nov
15		 Utah Valley C A- A+ A+ A+ 45% 18% 36% B- A+ F A+ D F+ A D B+ B- C B- D- C- 50% 14% 36% C C- A+ F B C+ F A+ F
1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28 1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27
Nov
18		 Stephen F. Austin B+ A A A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% B A+ B- B- B- D B+ F C- D F+ A- B+ C 41% 23% 36% D C F D F A A+ A+ A+
1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20 1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05
Nov
21		 New Orleans D+ B F+ F D 44% 6% 50% A- C- F+ A+ A+ F A B+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F+ B B D+ C+ A- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35 0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34
Nov
26		 Pepperdine C- A+ F D C+ 44% 7% 48% B B- F A+ C+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 24% 46% B- A+ F A+ C- A+ A A- A+
1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08 0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14
Nov
30		 Cal St. Bakersfield F C- F F F 41% 10% 49% B+ F B+ A+ A+ F D+ A- C D- F F A+ C- 34% 38% 28% B- C A C- B+ F D F F
1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27 1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38
Dec
6		 Arkansas F D D+ F F 42% 12% 46% A- F C+ F D- F C- A C+ A+ F+ B D- C+ 26% 26% 48% A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A
0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18 1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17
Dec
10		 Cal St. Northridge A B+ D A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% B+ A+ D+ F F+ C+ D+ A+ C+ F D- F F F 48% 11% 41% D F B A+ A+ C- A- F D+
1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23 1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22
Dec
20		 UNLV C- F C B+ D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ B- B+ B+ C F B+ F D+ F F D F 42% 11% 47% D- F A+ F F B+ D F F
1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18 1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34
Dec
30		 Utah St. F B- D+ F D 33% 24% 43% C- D D- F F D- B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B A A- 51% 12% 37% C- B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ B D
0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31 0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27
Jan
3		 Nevada D+ C C- B- B- 50% 18% 32% B+ B B+ D+ B F F A+ D- A- B- A B+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ B+ A+ F C+ B- B+ A+ A
1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18 1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
6		 San Jose St. C- C+ A D+ C 48% 17% 35% C+ C+ A- F+ C+ F C D C- A+ F A+ A- B 20% 26% 54% C+ B A+ B- A+ B- A+ B A+
1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21 0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10
Jan
10		 San Diego St. F F D- D- D- 26% 19% 54% C D- F F F D+ F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% D A+ B- F F D A+ C+ A+
0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12 0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14
Jan
13		 Colorado St. A- C F B C 37% 22% 41% C+ C B- B- B- A A+ A+ A+ B- F F A- B- 31% 16% 53% B- B- B- A+ A+ C A B- A
1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41 1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Wyoming D+ C A+ F C 57% 12% 31% A- C+ B+ F F A- A+ D+ A A D B+ A+ B 42% 24% 33% A B D A+ A+ A+ A- F C+
1.04 58% 60% 23% -2 +2 1.02 32% 0.3 .09 13% .51 67% .34 0.99 63% 36% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.4 .15 23% .26 92% .24
Jan
21		 New Mexico C- D- B C C 29% 19% 52% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C A A+ A+ 41% 11% 48% C A+ B- F F D A A+ A+
0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39 1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Grand Canyon F+ F C F F 29% 27% 44% D+ F C- F F C A+ B+ A+ B- D+ B- A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ F F+ F C F C F
0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -1 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37 1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34
Jan
31		 Air Force C- C B B+ C+ 28% 20% 52% C- C+ F+ F F C+ D+ F+ D- A- B A+ C B 40% 15% 45% C B C+ A B B A+ D- A
1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18 0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 UNLV B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A+ F+ A C- D+ A+ C+ A+ D- F F D F 32% 23% 45% B+ F F B+ C- A+ F C F
1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50 1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41
Feb
7		 Nevada D F C+ F F+ 27% 20% 53% D+ F+ F A+ C- A D+ B C- B C+ A- A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ C+ F D- D F+ C D-
0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22 1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34
Feb
10		 Utah St. A- A- F D C- 33% 23% 44% C- C- B+ A- A- A+ A- A- A D C+ A+ D B- 37% 6% 57% C- B- B+ F F D C+ F C-
1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30 1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
14		 Air Force B A A+ D- B 28% 28% 43% D- C+ C A+ A+ B A+ C A+ B F+ B+ B- C 24% 22% 53% A+ C+ B+ A+ A- A- B- F D+
1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34 0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Wyoming A+ C+ F+ A+ A- 47% 21% 32% C- A- A A A+ B+ B+ C+ B F C+ F F F 38% 12% 50% C F D F F D A+ D- A+
1.26 59% 30% 47% +5 +1 1.13 35% 1.2 .42 14% .43 71% .30 1.41 55% 83% 42% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.5 .60 14% .20 82% .16
Feb
21		 New Mexico A- A+ A C A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ B+ D+ B- B+ F F F D+ C+ F F+ C- 55% 15% 31% D+ C- B B B+ D+ A F B
1.16 75% 50% 32% +8 0 1.17 33% 0.9 .30 16% .16 56% .09 1.19 57% 50% 41% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.9 .23 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
24		 Colorado St. C- D B+ A B 25% 35% 39% F B- C- D- D D F B D- B+ D D B+ A- 24% 24% 51% A+ A- C F D- D+ B- C B-
1.05 54% 44% 40% +5 -3 1.06 25% 1.0 .25 18% .20 73% .15 1.11 67% 42% 32% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.4 .44 17% .31 76% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 1.0 1.0 7th
8th 3.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 8.4 22.4 2.2 33.0 9th
10th 11.2 40.2 11.7 63.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.2 48.6 34.1 6.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 34.1% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 34.0
7-13 48.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 48.5
6-14 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.1 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 7.8%