Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.1 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +26.3 #7
Pace 74.3 #55
Improvement -4.5 #349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #6 A+ A- A- C D+
Defense #18 A+ A+ A B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #129 1.40 #6 +5.9 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.92 #22 +4.6 #19
Three Pointers 33% #327 1.19 #9 -1.1 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #7 +9.4 #7
Freethrows 17.4 #188 71% #250 12.3 #204
Second Chance 36.6% #34 1.13 #83 0.41 #36
Turnovers 13.5% #26
Total Offense +11.7 #6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #357 1.07 #76 +7.6 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #13 0.66 #54 -1.8 #301
Three Pointers 43% #110 0.85 #24 +2.2 #98
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #11 +8.1 #11
Freethrows 16.6 #148 67% #15 11.1 #282
Second Chance 23.3% #11 0.89 #25 0.21 #6
Turnovers 20.1% #26
Total Defense +8.4 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 -3.7% #9
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 19.9% #2 -12.5% #15
Possession Length 15.0 #24 18.2 #319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #34 0.12 #35
Improvement -0.1 #186 -4.4 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 11.1% 11.9% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 26.2% 27.7% 5.6%
Top 4 Seed 69.4% 71.5% 42.0%
Top 6 Seed 95.1% 95.7% 86.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 99.6%
Average Seed 3.7 3.6 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 89.6% 90.6% 75.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
Second Round92.2% 92.7% 86.6%
Sweet Sixteen60.2% 61.1% 48.1%
Elite Eight31.3% 31.9% 23.7%
Final Four15.4% 15.7% 10.6%
Championship Game7.5% 7.7% 5.2%
National Champion3.5% 3.6% 2.7%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 15 - 2
Quad 28 - 013 - 2
Quad 39 - 023 - 2
Quad 48 - 030 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 334 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 100% +20  1 - 0 +41 +17 B- A+ D- +22 A+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 8 54 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 88% +13  2 - 0 +22 +6 B C+ A+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 43 Creighton W 90 - 63 85% +11  3 - 0 +36 +16 A+ C A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 82 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 83% +7  4 - 0 +22 +8 C B C +14 A+ B+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 323 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99% +34  5 - 0 +59 +27 A+ A+ A- +22 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 14 Alabama W 95 - 85 58% +1  6 - 0 +28 +18 B+ A+ C+ +9 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 112 Maryland W 100 - 61 93% +19  7 - 0 +43 +30 A+ A+ C+ +12 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 30% -25  7 - 1 -15 -6 D+ C- A+ -3 F A+ A
 Fri, Dec 5 25 Kentucky W 94 - 59 67% +21  8 - 1 +51 +29 A+ A A+ +22 A+ A B-
 Sun, Dec 7 350 North Florida W 109 - 58 100% +26  9 - 1 +35 +14 A A+ D+ +16 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 38 UCLA W 82 - 72 75% +2  10 - 1 +23 +21 A+ F A+ +3 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 191 Campbell W 98 - 70 98% +14  11 - 1 +23 +7 A+ C+ D +12 B A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 72 Oregon W 91 - 82 87% +4  12 - 1 +17 +25 A+ B- A+ -7 C D D+
 Sun, Dec 28 286 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98% +22  13 - 1 1 - 0 +36 +23 A+ B- A+ +13 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 222 @San Diego W 99 - 93 96% +10  14 - 1 2 - 0 +6 +14 A- A+ C+ -9 F A- F
 Fri, Jan 2 121 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96% -6  15 - 1 3 - 0 +7 +5 B- C A+ +2 A- C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 130 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 97% +15  16 - 1 4 - 0 +34 +12 A+ A- A+ +22 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 55 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 89% +6  17 - 1 5 - 0 +19 +14 A+ A+ A +4 A A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 136 @Washington St. W 87 - 71 93%
 Sat, Jan 17 121 @Seattle W 82 - 67 92%
 Wed, Jan 21 286 Pepperdine W 90 - 60 100%
 Sat, Jan 24 103 San Francisco W 85 - 67 96%
 Sat, Jan 31 42 St. Mary's W 82 - 71 84%
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @Portland W 91 - 70 97%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @Oregon St. W 85 - 66 96%
 Tue, Feb 10 136 Washington St. W 90 - 68 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 55 @Santa Clara W 85 - 78 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 103 @San Francisco W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 144 Pacific W 88 - 66 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 233 Portland W 94 - 67 99%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 @St. Mary's W 79 - 74 68%
Totals 29 - 2 17 - 1 +20 +12 A+ A- A- +8 A+ A+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.0 18.8 36.7 29.7 89.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 3.6 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 8.3 22.4 36.7 29.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 29.7    29.7
17-1 100.0% 36.7    34.0 2.7
16-2 84.1% 18.8    12.3 6.3 0.2
15-3 48.1% 4.0    1.4 2.2 0.4
14-4 15.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 89.6% 89.6 77.5 11.4 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 29.7% 100.0% 80.4% 19.6% 2.1 9.9 10.5 6.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 36.7% 100.0% 76.5% 23.4% 3.6 1.2 4.3 10.8 13.5 5.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 22.4% 99.9% 67.2% 32.7% 4.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.6 7.8 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 8.3% 99.8% 62.9% 36.9% 5.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-4 2.4% 100.0% 53.5% 46.5% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 97.8% 44.0% 53.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1%
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 73.8% 26.2% 3.7 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.9% 100.0% 1.9 39.0 38.6 18.2 4.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.3% 100.0% 3.0 9.9 20.6 37.9 27.4 3.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 3.0 10.1 24.4 28.2 32.1 4.9 0.3