Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+24.3#5
Pace74.3#75
Improvement-1.5#296

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#13
First Shot+7.6#23
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#49
Layup/Dunks+8.6#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#255
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement+1.2#66

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#7
First Shot+7.4#14
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#65
Layups/Dunks+6.6#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#182
Freethrows+1.0#124
Improvement-2.7#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.1% 0.7%
#1 Seed 11.9% 16.1% 6.5%
Top 2 Seed 27.6% 35.5% 17.3%
Top 4 Seed 60.3% 70.0% 47.6%
Top 6 Seed 82.6% 89.0% 74.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.6% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.3% 98.8% 95.6%
Average Seed 4.2 3.6 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 81.2% 83.9% 77.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.3%
First Round98.7% 99.5% 97.7%
Second Round86.3% 89.6% 81.9%
Sweet Sixteen55.6% 60.5% 49.1%
Elite Eight30.1% 34.5% 24.5%
Final Four15.5% 18.2% 12.0%
Championship Game7.8% 9.4% 5.7%
National Champion3.6% 4.5% 2.4%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 3
Quad 27 - 112 - 4
Quad 38 - 020 - 4
Quad 49 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 307 Texas Southern W 98-43 99%     1 - 0 +44.1 +16.6 +25.6
  Sat, Nov 8 52 Oklahoma W 83-68 87%     2 - 0 +22.2 +6.5 +15.0
  Tue, Nov 11 45 Creighton W 90-63 86%     3 - 0 +35.1 +16.8 +17.2
  Fri, Nov 14 83 @Arizona St. W 77-65 82%     4 - 0 +21.9 +7.4 +14.5
  Mon, Nov 17 331 Southern Utah W 122-50 99%     5 - 0 +59.3 +24.9 +24.0
  Mon, Nov 24 10 Alabama W 95-85 52%     6 - 0 +29.0 +20.2 +8.0
  Tue, Nov 25 93 Maryland W 100-61 90%     7 - 0 +44.6 +30.5 +14.1
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 28%     7 - 1 -14.3 -5.6 -3.4
  Fri, Dec 5 16 Kentucky W 81-79 57%    
  Sun, Dec 7 341 North Florida W 101-67 100.0%   
  Sat, Dec 13 32 UCLA W 75-69 71%    
  Wed, Dec 17 219 Campbell W 92-66 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 80 Oregon W 82-70 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 264 @Pepperdine W 87-65 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 247 @San Diego W 91-70 97%    
  Fri, Jan 2 116 Seattle W 84-65 96%    
  Sun, Jan 4 114 Loyola Marymount W 82-63 96%    
  Thu, Jan 8 59 Santa Clara W 84-71 88%    
  Thu, Jan 15 157 @Washington St. W 90-73 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 116 @Seattle W 81-68 88%    
  Wed, Jan 21 264 Pepperdine W 90-62 99%    
  Sat, Jan 24 77 San Francisco W 84-69 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 30 St. Mary's W 76-67 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 274 @Portland W 89-66 98%    
  Sat, Feb 7 169 @Oregon St. W 81-63 94%    
  Tue, Feb 10 157 Washington St. W 93-70 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 59 @Santa Clara W 81-74 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 77 @San Francisco W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 144 Pacific W 86-64 97%    
  Wed, Feb 25 274 Portland W 92-63 99%    
  Sat, Feb 28 30 @St. Mary's W 73-70 61%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 8.0 22.0 29.2 20.4 81.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.1 6.3 3.2 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 7.0 14.4 25.1 29.2 20.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 20.4    20.4
17-1 100.0% 29.2    27.5 1.7
16-2 87.4% 22.0    16.3 5.6 0.1
15-3 55.6% 8.0    4.0 3.5 0.5
14-4 24.0% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-5 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 81.2% 81.2 68.6 11.5 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 20.4% 100.0% 76.5% 23.5% 2.0 8.0 7.3 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 29.2% 100.0% 70.4% 29.5% 3.1 3.7 7.1 8.1 6.4 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 25.1% 99.7% 64.1% 35.6% 4.6 0.3 1.2 4.1 7.1 5.9 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
15-3 14.4% 98.8% 54.3% 44.5% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.4%
14-4 7.0% 97.1% 43.7% 53.4% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 94.9%
13-5 2.6% 92.4% 33.6% 58.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 88.6%
12-6 1.0% 84.7% 30.3% 54.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 78.0%
11-7 0.3% 72.5% 23.5% 49.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 64.1%
10-8 0.1% 50.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.6%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 64.4% 34.7% 4.2 11.9 15.7 16.1 16.6 12.7 9.7 6.5 4.3 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.0 1.0 97.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.3% 100.0% 1.6 54.6 36.2 8.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 2.0 32.8 35.0 27.3 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 2.1 30.1 36.6 25.7 5.5 2.2