Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+19.2#11
Pace59.8#363
Improvement-0.9#250

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#21
First Shot+5.0#52
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#18
Layup/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#97
Freethrows-1.4#264
Improvement+1.4#58

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#3
First Shot+11.6#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#242
Layups/Dunks+3.9#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#62
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement-2.3#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.7% 1.8%
#1 Seed 17.7% 19.4% 10.1%
Top 2 Seed 40.2% 43.2% 26.1%
Top 4 Seed 73.9% 76.7% 60.7%
Top 6 Seed 90.3% 91.8% 83.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.4% 98.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.3% 97.6%
Average Seed 3.4 3.3 4.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 97.5% 95.1%
Conference Champion 27.4% 28.9% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round98.9% 99.2% 97.4%
Second Round89.6% 90.7% 84.2%
Sweet Sixteen61.1% 62.8% 53.2%
Elite Eight34.5% 36.2% 26.3%
Final Four18.1% 19.2% 12.5%
Championship Game9.1% 9.7% 5.9%
National Champion4.3% 4.7% 2.8%

Next Game: Florida St. (Neutral) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 6
Quad 28 - 116 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 312 Lehigh W 75-57 99%     1 - 0 +6.9 +0.1 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 8 128 Towson W 65-48 96%     2 - 0 +16.1 -2.4 +19.9
  Wed, Nov 12 138 Oakland W 78-45 97%     3 - 0 +31.4 +11.0 +24.7
  Sun, Nov 16 23 Auburn W 73-72 68%     4 - 0 +15.9 +8.4 +7.6
  Thu, Nov 20 343 Rider W 91-45 99.5%    5 - 0 +31.6 +16.2 +17.3
  Mon, Nov 24 64 Syracuse W 78-74 OT 85%     6 - 0 +12.5 +4.0 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 14 Tennessee L 73-76 57%     6 - 1 +14.9 +19.6 -5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 66 Notre Dame W 66-56 85%     7 - 1 +18.5 +10.0 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 6 55 Florida St. W 77-67 82%    
  Wed, Dec 10 326 Jackson St. W 84-52 99.8%   
  Sat, Dec 13 205 New Orleans W 81-55 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 25 Arkansas W 72-67 69%    
  Mon, Dec 29 149 Middle Tennessee W 80-57 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 65 @Cincinnati W 70-62 77%    
  Tue, Jan 6 24 Texas Tech W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 28 @Baylor W 72-69 60%    
  Tue, Jan 13 71 West Virginia W 70-55 91%    
  Sun, Jan 18 83 Arizona St. W 78-62 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 24 @Texas Tech W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Jan 28 51 @TCU W 69-63 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 65 Cincinnati W 73-59 90%    
  Wed, Feb 4 68 Central Florida W 80-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 7 @BYU L 67-70 40%    
  Tue, Feb 10 125 @Utah W 76-62 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 54 Kansas St. W 80-67 87%    
  Mon, Feb 16 4 @Iowa St. L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 11 Arizona W 71-67 64%    
  Mon, Feb 23 18 @Kansas W 67-66 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 72 Colorado W 77-62 91%    
  Wed, Mar 4 28 Baylor W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 46 @Oklahoma St. W 77-71 70%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.0 8.6 8.5 4.4 0.9 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 8.7 5.4 1.1 0.1 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.2 4.1 0.6 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.8 3.2 0.3 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.5 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.4 9.9 13.5 16.8 17.3 14.6 9.7 4.5 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 98.3% 4.4    4.0 0.4
16-2 88.1% 8.5    5.9 2.4 0.2
15-3 59.1% 8.6    4.1 3.7 0.8 0.0
14-4 23.4% 4.0    0.9 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 15.9 8.5 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-1 4.5% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 1.3 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.7% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.5 5.4 3.6 0.6 0.1 100.0%
15-3 14.6% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.9 4.7 6.5 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.3% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.6 2.6 6.3 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 16.8% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.2 0.9 3.3 6.0 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
12-6 13.5% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 4.1 0.2 1.2 3.1 4.3 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.9% 99.9% 8.2% 91.7% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.4% 99.3% 5.6% 93.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
9-9 3.6% 97.6% 3.1% 94.5% 7.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.5%
8-10 1.8% 89.3% 2.0% 87.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.0%
7-11 0.7% 68.7% 68.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 68.7%
6-12 0.3% 39.0% 2.4% 36.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 37.5%
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 19.7% 79.5% 3.4 17.7 22.5 18.9 14.8 9.9 6.5 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.8 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 82.0 18.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3