Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.0 #5
Expected Predictive Rating +24.4 #9
Pace 60.4 #358
Improvement +3.6 #34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #20 C+ A- A+ D F
Defense #4 A+ B+ A+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #364 1.43 #4 -2.8 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #32 0.74 #193 +3.3 #44
Three Pointers 43% #149 1.04 #155 +1.5 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #129 +2.0 #128
Freethrows 13.6 #335 78% #37 10.6 #296
Second Chance 39.6% #9 1.05 #175 0.42 #35
Turnovers 12.4% #6
Total Offense +9.4 #20

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.04 #43 +5.0 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #143 0.54 #4 +1.9 #59
Three Pointers 45% #72 0.88 #34 +1.1 #136
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #12 +8.0 #12
Freethrows 17.7 #205 65% #7 11.6 #246
Second Chance 26.4% #49 0.96 #76 0.25 #36
Turnovers 23.8% #2
Total Defense +11.6 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.1% #355 -1.0% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.2% #61 -14.8% #8
Possession Length 17.9 #237 18.9 #353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #143 0.06 #2
Improvement +1.7 #83 +1.9 #73

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 4.6% 1.5%
#1 Seed 24.5% 25.2% 11.8%
Top 2 Seed 56.5% 57.7% 33.8%
Top 4 Seed 93.9% 94.4% 85.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 99.7% 98.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.4 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 34.3% 35.3% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.0% 97.2% 93.8%
Sweet Sixteen70.5% 71.0% 61.8%
Elite Eight42.1% 42.6% 32.9%
Final Four22.6% 22.9% 16.5%
Championship Game11.5% 11.7% 8.2%
National Champion5.5% 5.6% 4.2%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 28 - 118 - 5
Quad 35 - 023 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Lehigh W 75 - 57 99% +15  1 - 0 +6 -1 F A- D +7 A+ B B+
 Sat, Nov 8 166 Towson W 65 - 48 98% +9  2 - 0 +13 -4 C C F +18 A- A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 135 Oakland W 78 - 45 97% +21  3 - 0 +31 +9 C- B+ A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 27 Auburn W 73 - 72 72% +3  4 - 0 +16 +8 C+ C- A+ +8 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 348 Rider W 91 - 45 100% +25  5 - 0 +30 +17 A+ F A- +15 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 61 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 87% +2  6 - 0 +13 +4 D+ A+ A- +9 B+ A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 20 Tennessee L 73 - 76 67% +2  6 - 1 +13 +21 A+ B+ A+ -8 A- C F
 Wed, Nov 26 71 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 88% +12  7 - 1 +18 +11 F A+ A+ +9 A+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 117 Florida St. W 82 - 67 95% +10  8 - 1 +18 +9 A+ F A- +8 A D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 333 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100% +22  9 - 1 +28 +8 D A+ C- +24 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 245 New Orleans W 99 - 57 99% +25  10 - 1 +34 +22 A+ F A+ +13 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 26 Arkansas W 94 - 85 71% +10  11 - 1 +24 +22 A+ A+ A+ +2 B- C A
 Mon, Dec 29 120 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 97% +5  12 - 1 +9 +9 C C A+ +1 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 56 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 79% -1  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +12 C A+ A+ +8 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 21 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 77% -0  14 - 1 2 - 0 +17 +5 D A- A+ +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 37 @Baylor W 77 - 55 67% +11  15 - 1 3 - 0 +39 +20 C+ A- A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 59 West Virginia W 77 - 48 91% +16  16 - 1 4 - 0 +35 +19 C+ A+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 82 Arizona St. W 80 - 63 95%
 Sat, Jan 24 21 @Texas Tech W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Jan 28 45 @TCU W 70 - 64 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 56 Cincinnati W 72 - 58 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 50 Central Florida W 79 - 65 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 @BYU L 70 - 72 44%
 Tue, Feb 10 113 @Utah W 78 - 64 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 74 Kansas St. W 82 - 66 94%
 Mon, Feb 16 6 @Iowa St. L 66 - 69 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Arizona L 71 - 72 50%
 Mon, Feb 23 18 @Kansas W 68 - 67 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 73 Colorado W 79 - 63 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 37 Baylor W 76 - 66 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Oklahoma St. W 79 - 70 80%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +21 +9 C+ A- A+ +12 A+ B+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 9.6 12.9 7.4 1.7 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.3 11.6 11.6 3.2 0.2 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 8.1 7.0 1.3 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.2 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 8.7 16.0 22.0 22.5 16.1 7.6 1.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 97.7% 7.4    6.4 1.0
16-2 80.0% 12.9    7.6 4.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 42.6% 9.6    3.0 4.7 1.8 0.1
14-4 11.3% 2.5    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 19.0 11.6 3.1 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.6% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.4 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 16.1% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.6 7.5 6.9 1.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 22.5% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.0 6.5 9.9 5.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 22.0% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.5 3.1 7.9 7.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.0% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.1 0.9 3.6 6.4 4.2 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 8.7% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 3.7 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.7% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 4.4 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 98.3% 3.4% 94.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.5 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 86.9 13.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 73.4 23.4 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 76.5 23.5