Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.3#18
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#19
Pace69.7#181
Improvement+0.9#107

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#43
First Shot+6.5#32
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#135
Layup/Dunks+6.8#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows+0.2#158
Improvement-0.3#214

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#9
First Shot+5.7#35
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#19
Layups/Dunks+0.8#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#101
Freethrows+2.7#46
Improvement+1.2#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.6% 7.8% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 16.3% 21.9% 10.4%
Top 4 Seed 46.4% 56.2% 36.3%
Top 6 Seed 70.4% 78.9% 61.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.8% 95.9% 87.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.1% 95.4% 86.9%
Average Seed 4.9 4.4 5.4
.500 or above 95.9% 98.4% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 85.8% 78.7%
Conference Champion 9.5% 11.6% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four3.8% 2.6% 5.1%
First Round90.1% 94.7% 85.3%
Second Round72.0% 78.5% 65.4%
Sweet Sixteen38.5% 44.7% 32.2%
Elite Eight16.9% 20.5% 13.2%
Final Four7.0% 8.5% 5.4%
Championship Game2.8% 3.5% 2.0%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.7%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 10
Quad 26 - 115 - 11
Quad 34 - 018 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 267 Green Bay W 94-51 98%     1 - 0 +34.3 +23.8 +14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 26 @North Carolina L 74-87 47%     1 - 1 +4.1 +8.7 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-46 97%     2 - 1 +24.0 +1.5 +22.0
  Sat, Nov 15 238 Princeton W 76-57 98%     3 - 1 +11.4 -1.0 +12.2
  Tue, Nov 18 2 Duke L 66-78 27%     3 - 2 +10.8 +8.1 +2.0
  Mon, Nov 24 66 Notre Dame W 71-61 77%     4 - 2 +18.5 +7.3 +11.8
  Tue, Nov 25 64 Syracuse W 71-60 77%     5 - 2 +19.5 +7.7 +12.7
  Wed, Nov 26 14 Tennessee W 81-76 44%     6 - 2 +22.9 +16.9 +6.0
  Tue, Dec 2 8 Connecticut W 72-71 51%    
  Sun, Dec 7 33 Missouri W 79-73 71%    
  Sat, Dec 13 29 @North Carolina St. L 79-80 50%    
  Tue, Dec 16 128 Towson W 76-59 94%    
  Mon, Dec 22 135 Davidson W 79-61 95%    
  Sat, Jan 3 68 @Central Florida W 81-76 68%    
  Tue, Jan 6 51 TCU W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 71 @West Virginia W 70-65 69%    
  Tue, Jan 13 4 Iowa St. L 73-74 48%    
  Fri, Jan 16 28 Baylor W 79-74 69%    
  Tue, Jan 20 72 @Colorado W 78-72 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 54 @Kansas St. W 82-78 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 7 BYU L 73-74 49%    
  Mon, Feb 2 24 @Texas Tech L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 125 Utah W 83-66 93%    
  Mon, Feb 9 11 Arizona W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 4 @Iowa St. L 70-77 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 46 @Oklahoma St. W 81-79 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 65 Cincinnati W 77-66 84%    
  Mon, Feb 23 5 Houston L 66-67 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 11 @Arizona L 73-78 31%    
  Tue, Mar 3 83 @Arizona St. W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 54 Kansas St. W 85-75 80%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.2 6.1 2.5 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.5 0.3 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 3.8 1.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.0 0.3 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.0 10.5 12.6 14.2 14.4 12.0 9.6 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 90.5% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.1
15-3 60.4% 3.2    1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 25.2% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.4% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.6 1.3 3.1 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.0% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.2 0.6 2.4 4.4 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.4% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 4.8 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.2% 99.9% 4.5% 95.4% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 4.6 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 12.6% 99.7% 3.1% 96.6% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.3 3.5 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 10.5% 97.7% 2.4% 95.3% 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.6%
8-10 8.0% 83.4% 1.5% 81.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 83.1%
7-11 5.1% 50.2% 1.0% 49.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.6 49.7%
6-12 2.7% 19.9% 0.9% 19.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 19.2%
5-13 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.2%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 91.8% 8.1% 83.7% 4.9 5.6 10.7 15.0 15.1 13.8 10.2 6.9 4.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.2 91.1%