Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #167
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #157
Pace 73.6 #64
Improvement -1.2 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #194 C D+ B- D- A-
Defense #154 C C C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.15 #191 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #341 0.52 #361 -4.9 #359
Three Pointers 48% #52 1.01 #181 +3.6 #66
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 -0.1 #180
Freethrows 13.1 #344 77% #52 10.1 #320
Second Chance 25.7% #311 1.08 #137 0.28 #268
Turnovers 15.5% #110
Total Offense -1.0 #194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.17 #191 +1.0 #138
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.78 #216 -0.8 #237
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.99 #160 +0.0 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #171 +0.3 #171
Freethrows 16.3 #128 73% #177 11.8 #225
Second Chance 30.8% #180 1.05 #200 0.32 #192
Turnovers 17.8% #105
Total Defense +0.3 #154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #27 -0.6% #114
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #217 0.1% #186
Possession Length 16.2 #84 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #80 0.18 #203
Improvement +0.4 #160 -1.6 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 26.4% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 94.4% 96.1% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 98.4% 92.6%
Conference Champion 31.9% 35.0% 16.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round25.3% 26.2% 20.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 415 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 9 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 2% -29  0 - 1 -21 -5 F C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 153 @Mercer L 77 - 92 35% -8  0 - 2 -12 +6 C B B -18 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 218 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 48% -4  0 - 3 -5 -4 F C- C -2 F D A+
 Wed, Nov 19 79 @Belmont L 68 - 75 15% -7  0 - 4 +3 -8 F A- F +12 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 291 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 82% +12  1 - 4 +11 +0 C C C+ +9 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 171 @Marshall W 90 - 67 39% +17  2 - 4 +25 +9 A+ F F +14 A+ C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 224 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 49% +4  3 - 4 +11 +4 B+ F F +5 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 314 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 86% +1  4 - 4 -9 -0 C- F B- -9 F C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 300 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 83% +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ B- A+ +5 A B B-
 Tue, Dec 16 7 @Duke L 73 - 97 2% -5  5 - 5 -0 +0 B- F B- +3 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 56 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 11% -16  5 - 6 -14 -1 D+ B- B- -12 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 305 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 84% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +14 A- F A+ -2 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 350 North Florida W 82 - 74 92% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -8 -3 F F A+ -5 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 8 345 @Stetson L 83 - 91 78% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -17 -2 C F D -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 201 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 45% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +8 +7 B- C D- +0 C C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 294 Bellarmine W 84 - 74 83%
 Sat, Jan 17 180 Austin Peay W 76 - 72 64%
 Thu, Jan 22 345 Stetson W 83 - 69 91%
 Sat, Jan 24 201 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 67%
 Thu, Jan 29 305 @Jacksonville W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @North Florida W 88 - 79 81%
 Thu, Feb 5 180 @Austin Peay L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 265 Central Arkansas W 79 - 71 77%
 Wed, Feb 11 253 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 74 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 202 @Queens L 81 - 82 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 294 @Bellarmine W 81 - 77 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 North Alabama W 78 - 69 80%
 Wed, Feb 25 320 @West Georgia W 79 - 73 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 77 56%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -1 -1 C D+ B- +0 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.8 9.9 9.9 5.0 1.2 31.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 6.4 10.3 6.6 1.8 0.1 26.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.5 8.5 4.1 0.8 0.1 19.8 3rd
4th 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.7 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.3 8.1 12.8 17.7 19.3 17.2 11.7 5.2 1.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.5% 5.0    4.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.6% 9.9    7.5 2.3 0.2
14-4 57.4% 9.9    5.0 4.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.7% 4.8    1.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.0% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 19.8 9.3 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 53.3% 53.3% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6
16-2 5.2% 41.5% 41.5% 13.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 3.0
15-3 11.7% 35.9% 35.9% 14.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 7.5
14-4 17.2% 31.1% 31.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.3 0.1 11.9
13-5 19.3% 26.7% 26.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 0.3 14.1
12-6 17.7% 22.5% 22.5% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.6 0.5 13.7
11-7 12.8% 18.3% 18.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.7 10.4
10-8 8.1% 12.9% 12.9% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 7.1
9-9 4.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.9
8-10 1.8% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
7-11 0.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 14.5 74.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.5 4.7 46.5 44.2 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%