Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#136
Pace75.0#61
Improvement+1.6#61

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#99
First Shot+2.1#115
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#128
Layup/Dunks+5.0#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#259
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement+0.0#187

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#45
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#106
Layups/Dunks+2.7#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#226
Freethrows+0.0#192
Improvement+1.6#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.3% 26.1% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 3.5% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.9
.500 or above 78.2% 80.7% 55.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 92.4% 84.1%
Conference Champion 31.1% 32.1% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 0.9%
First Round24.6% 25.3% 17.5%
Second Round7.4% 7.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 45 - 10
Quad 38 - 313 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 77 San Francisco W 76-70 63%     1 - 0 +10.5 +1.1 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 11 49 @Mississippi L 77-83 30%     1 - 1 +7.4 +12.1 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 16 129 UNLV L 78-92 80%     1 - 2 -14.9 -6.6 -6.6
  Thu, Nov 20 3 Purdue L 71-80 10%     1 - 3 +13.2 +8.3 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 21 37 Wake Forest L 68-69 34%     1 - 4 +11.2 +4.6 +6.6
  Wed, Nov 26 142 Southern Illinois W 74-58 83%     2 - 4 +13.9 +0.1 +13.8
  Wed, Dec 3 205 New Orleans W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Dec 6 28 Baylor L 78-81 39%    
  Sat, Dec 13 9 @Louisville L 72-86 9%    
  Wed, Dec 17 19 Vanderbilt L 78-83 32%    
  Sat, Dec 20 84 @Mississippi St. L 75-77 43%    
  Mon, Dec 22 266 Alabama St. W 84-67 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 123 North Texas W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 213 @Rice W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Jan 11 111 @Florida Atlantic W 78-77 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 148 Temple W 85-74 84%    
  Sun, Jan 18 231 Texas San Antonio W 84-69 91%    
  Wed, Jan 21 91 @Tulsa L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 92 @Wichita St. L 74-75 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 111 Florida Atlantic W 81-74 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 152 Tulane W 82-71 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 107 @UAB W 79-78 52%    
  Sun, Feb 8 196 Charlotte W 80-67 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 123 @North Texas W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 @Utah St. L 73-81 24%    
  Thu, Feb 19 81 @South Florida L 81-83 43%    
  Sun, Feb 22 107 UAB W 82-75 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 92 Wichita St. W 77-72 67%    
  Sun, Mar 1 259 @East Carolina W 81-71 81%    
  Thu, Mar 5 81 South Florida W 84-80 64%    
  Sun, Mar 8 152 @Tulane W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.7 8.6 6.4 3.3 0.8 31.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.4 5.0 1.5 0.3 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.7 0.3 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.5 9.5 12.9 14.0 14.7 13.1 10.2 6.7 3.3 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.3    3.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 6.4    5.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.7% 8.6    6.2 2.3 0.2
14-4 58.5% 7.7    3.8 3.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 24.5% 3.6    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.1% 31.1 20.9 7.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 85.5% 60.5% 25.0% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 63.3%
17-1 3.3% 70.2% 51.1% 19.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.0 39.1%
16-2 6.7% 53.7% 42.7% 11.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.1 19.2%
15-3 10.2% 43.7% 38.6% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.7 8.3%
14-4 13.1% 33.3% 30.8% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 1.4 0.1 8.8 3.5%
13-5 14.7% 25.5% 25.0% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.7%
12-6 14.0% 18.9% 18.6% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 11.4 0.4%
11-7 12.9% 14.7% 14.7% 12.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.0
10-8 9.5% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.5
9-9 6.5% 5.2% 5.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
8-10 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
7-11 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.3% 22.8% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.5 10.5 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 74.7 3.3%