Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.8 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +4.6 #100
Pace 73.7 #61
Improvement -1.7 #268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #142 C A+ D- D- C
Defense #36 B+ B- A- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.22 #105 +2.0 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.65 #305 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.04 #152 -0.8 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #167 +0.6 #168
Freethrows 15.5 #281 66% #335 10.3 #312
Second Chance 37.9% #24 1.18 #42 0.45 #21
Turnovers 19.1% #319
Total Offense +0.7 #142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.25 #291 +2.6 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #108 0.52 #2 +1.8 #62
Three Pointers 46% #54 0.89 #45 +0.4 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #52 +4.8 #51
Freethrows 18.8 #259 70% #91 13.2 #137
Second Chance 31.3% #205 0.91 #36 0.28 #95
Turnovers 19.8% #37
Total Defense +6.1 #36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #203 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #160 -8.0% #50
Possession Length 16.2 #79 17.6 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #55 0.21 #305
Improvement -2.4 #320 +0.8 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 19.9% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.4
.500 or above 80.9% 85.2% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 96.2% 85.1%
Conference Champion 27.8% 31.8% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round18.7% 19.8% 14.4%
Second Round3.4% 3.6% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 39 - 312 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 103 San Francisco W 76 - 70 68% +9  1 - 0 +8 +0 C A+ F +7 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 65 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 32% -5  1 - 1 +6 +13 A+ F A+ -8 F C D-
 Sun, Nov 16 134 UNLV L 78 - 92 79% -11  1 - 2 -16 -5 F B F -9 F A+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 3 Purdue L 71 - 80 9% -1  1 - 3 +13 +8 C A+ C- +4 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 57 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 40% +5  1 - 4 +8 +3 A- B F +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 126 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 77% +11  2 - 4 +15 +3 C A+ F +12 A+ C B-
 Wed, Dec 3 245 New Orleans W 86 - 70 91% +16  3 - 4 +8 +6 A+ F F +2 B- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 37 Baylor W 78 - 71 36% +2  4 - 4 +18 +7 D- A+ A+ +11 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 19 @Louisville L 73 - 99 12% -17  4 - 5 -7 +6 D- A+ B -12 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 9 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 16% -3  4 - 6 +10 -8 D C F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 66 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 33% -4  4 - 7 +6 -1 F A+ F +8 B A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 306 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 95% +13  5 - 7 +10 +5 A+ C+ F +3 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 137 North Texas W 57 - 48 79% +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +7 -9 B+ B F +16 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 247 @Rice W 76 - 70 80% -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +4 +8 F A+ F -3 B- F A
 Sun, Jan 11 102 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 45% -8  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 +1 B- C- C- -3 C F B
 Wed, Jan 14 140 Temple W 79 - 70 80%
 Sun, Jan 18 332 Texas San Antonio W 83 - 62 97%
 Wed, Jan 21 93 @Tulsa L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Jan 24 105 @Wichita St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Thu, Jan 29 102 Florida Atlantic W 78 - 73 68%
 Sun, Feb 1 158 Tulane W 77 - 67 82%
 Thu, Feb 5 115 @UAB W 76 - 75 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 170 Charlotte W 77 - 66 84%
 Thu, Feb 12 137 @North Texas W 66 - 64 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 28 @Utah St. L 70 - 81 15%
 Thu, Feb 19 75 @South Florida L 77 - 81 36%
 Sun, Feb 22 115 UAB W 79 - 73 72%
 Thu, Feb 26 105 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Sun, Mar 1 262 @East Carolina W 77 - 67 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 75 South Florida W 80 - 78 57%
 Sun, Mar 8 158 @Tulane W 74 - 70 62%
Totals 17 - 14 12 - 6 +7 +1 C A+ D- +6 B+ B- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 7.0 9.7 6.6 2.7 0.5 27.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.2 8.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.3 7.6 1.8 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 7.1 2.3 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 3.4 0.2 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.4 3.0 1.4 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.2 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 7.7 11.9 16.1 18.6 17.4 12.3 6.9 2.7 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 99.6% 2.7    2.6 0.1
15-3 96.5% 6.6    5.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 79.0% 9.7    5.6 3.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 40.0% 7.0    1.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 7.4% 1.4    0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 16.2 7.9 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 45.8% 41.7% 4.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 7.1%
16-2 2.7% 35.6% 33.2% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.7 3.7%
15-3 6.9% 33.1% 32.3% 0.7% 11.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 4.6 1.1%
14-4 12.3% 28.0% 27.9% 0.1% 11.6 1.5 1.8 0.1 8.9 0.1%
13-5 17.4% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 11.8 1.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.3 0.0%
12-6 18.6% 18.3% 18.3% 12.0 0.4 2.6 0.4 15.2
11-7 16.1% 14.9% 14.9% 12.3 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 13.7
10-8 11.9% 9.5% 9.5% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.8
9-9 7.7% 6.9% 6.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.1
8-10 3.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-11 1.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
6-12 0.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 18.6% 0.2% 11.9 81.2 0.2%