Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#121
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#97
Pace74.0#83
Improvement-1.1#268

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#111
First Shot+6.0#39
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#348
Layup/Dunks+2.3#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement+0.2#159

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot-1.9#238
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#55
Layups/Dunks+0.8#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement-1.3#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 13.2% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 97.2% 98.0% 89.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 84.1% 71.9%
Conference Champion 9.6% 10.0% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.8% 13.2% 8.9%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 413 - 220 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 Old Dominion W 87-72 81%     1 - 0 +8.5 +4.1 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 323 @Air Force W 76-61 79%     2 - 0 +9.4 +5.7 +4.4
  Thu, Nov 20 320 Mercyhurst W 76-71 90%     3 - 0 -6.5 +4.3 -10.4
  Sun, Nov 23 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111-84 97%     4 - 0 +8.4 +13.5 -8.9
  Wed, Nov 26 287 UNC Greensboro W 82-71 82%     5 - 0 +4.2 +3.7 +0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 321 Maine W 77-63 91%    
  Wed, Dec 10 218 @UNC Asheville W 79-76 63%    
  Sat, Dec 13 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 82-77 68%    
  Tue, Dec 16 146 @Wright St. L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Dec 20 277 @Ball St. W 77-71 71%    
  Tue, Dec 30 140 @Bowling Green L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 3 58 Akron L 83-87 37%    
  Tue, Jan 6 243 Western Michigan W 83-72 83%    
  Fri, Jan 9 173 @Toledo W 81-80 54%    
  Tue, Jan 13 305 Central Michigan W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Jan 17 228 Buffalo W 84-74 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 124 @Kent St. L 82-85 40%    
  Tue, Jan 27 181 Massachusetts W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 280 Northern Illinois W 84-72 86%    
  Tue, Feb 3 228 @Buffalo W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 207 Ohio W 85-76 78%    
  Tue, Feb 17 181 @Massachusetts W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 140 Bowling Green W 78-73 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 209 @Eastern Michigan W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 243 @Western Michigan W 80-75 65%    
  Fri, Mar 6 207 @Ohio W 82-79 60%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 3.2 2.0 0.6 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.7 6.9 5.6 2.7 0.4 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.0 4.5 0.9 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.6 0.3 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.5 7.7 10.3 12.5 15.0 14.3 12.8 9.1 6.0 2.4 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.1
16-2 82.7% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 53.6% 3.2    1.7 1.3 0.2
14-4 28.6% 2.6    0.9 1.4 0.3 0.1
13-5 7.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 36.4% 33.7% 2.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.0%
16-2 2.4% 33.6% 33.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.2%
15-3 6.0% 30.2% 30.2% 12.1 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.1% 23.8% 23.8% 12.3 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0
13-5 12.8% 18.0% 18.0% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 10.5
12-6 14.3% 14.5% 14.5% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 12.2
11-7 15.0% 10.9% 10.9% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.3
10-8 12.5% 7.6% 7.6% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.6
9-9 10.3% 5.2% 5.2% 14.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.8
8-10 7.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
7-11 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 87.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.1 5.7 14.3 14.3 14.3 2.9 11.4 5.7 31.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 13.9% 10.8 2.8 11.1