Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #223
Pace 66.7 #243
Improvement +4.2 #24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #241 D+ C C C D+
Defense #133 C- B C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #151 1.07 #286 -1.4 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #81 0.70 #247 +1.2 #106
Three Pointers 35% #300 1.00 #196 -3.1 #287
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #266 -3.2 #268
Freethrows 17.6 #176 74% #145 13.0 #147
Second Chance 28.9% #235 1.09 #131 0.31 #178
Turnovers 16.2% #154
Total Offense -2.7 #241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.12 #124 -1.1 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.75 #175 +1.2 #103
Three Pointers 41% #199 1.08 #270 -1.1 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #214 -1.0 #215
Freethrows 16.3 #127 71% #118 11.6 #251
Second Chance 32.4% #251 0.83 #10 0.27 #63
Turnovers 17.5% #117
Total Defense +1.1 #133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #265 1.4% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #256 0.6% #198
Possession Length 18.2 #266 17.6 #223
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #165 0.19 #239
Improvement -1.1 #249 +5.3 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.8% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 47.0% 55.0% 27.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 66.4% 37.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 3.8%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round4.8% 5.6% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 411 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 208 @La Salle L 60 - 73 43% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D- C F -4 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 49 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 8% -2  0 - 2 +2 -1 F A+ F +2 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 61 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 11% -5  0 - 3 +7 +5 B- D- B+ +2 C B- B
 Sun, Nov 23 214 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 66% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F B C +0 B C C-
 Fri, Nov 28 303 Ball St. W 80 - 73 74% +4  2 - 3 -1 +8 C B+ A+ -9 F B+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 295 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 72% -1  2 - 4 -12 +3 F A+ A -15 F C- C+
 Sun, Nov 30 326 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 70% +13  3 - 4 +7 +12 A+ F D -5 D- B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 221 Princeton W 63 - 58 67% +3  4 - 4 -1 -8 F F B +7 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 111 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 21% -2  4 - 5 -5 -1 D- C A+ -4 D+ B- A
 Sun, Dec 14 281 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 58% -0  4 - 6 -12 -5 D D D -8 F D- C
 Wed, Dec 17 156 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 55% -15  4 - 7 -13 +1 C F C- -13 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 313 Lehigh W 76 - 62 83% +7  5 - 7 +2 +2 A+ F F +1 F B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 191 Campbell L 65 - 68 63% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -8 -6 F D A+ -2 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 166 @Towson W 62 - 48 35% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +16 -2 C C F +20 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 138 William & Mary W 81 - 70 51% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +9 +6 B- A A+ +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 110 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 21% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +4 -6 F F C- +10 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 238 Drexel W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Jan 17 236 Northeastern W 78 - 72 70%
 Thu, Jan 22 242 @Hampton W 67 - 66 50%
 Sat, Jan 24 191 @Campbell L 73 - 76 40%
 Thu, Jan 29 302 N.C. A&T W 77 - 67 82%
 Sat, Jan 31 110 Hofstra L 67 - 70 40%
 Thu, Feb 5 274 @Stony Brook W 67 - 65 57%
 Thu, Feb 12 238 @Drexel L 64 - 65 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 Towson W 67 - 65 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 118 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 72 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 @College of Charleston L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 274 Stony Brook W 70 - 62 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 169 Elon W 75 - 73 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 236 @Northeastern L 74 - 75 49%
Totals 15 - 15 9 - 8 -2 -3 D+ C C +1 C- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.6 3.9 5.6 1.4 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.4 7.5 2.5 0.2 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 7.9 4.1 0.3 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 5.8 5.7 0.7 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.1 3.3 6.3 1.4 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.3 2.5 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 2.9 0.3 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.4 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.6 12.7 16.8 19.1 16.8 12.2 6.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 49.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 18.1% 18.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 2.5% 14.9% 14.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
12-6 6.5% 14.3% 14.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 5.6
11-7 12.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 11.1
10-8 16.8% 5.4% 5.4% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 15.9
9-9 19.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 18.4
8-10 16.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.2 0.2 16.5
7-11 12.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.4
6-12 7.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.5
5-13 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.5 95.1 0.0%