Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#201
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#227
Pace67.8#238
Improvement+1.7#58

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#239
First Shot-6.1#342
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#23
Layup/Dunks-8.4#361
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#266
Freethrows+1.4#100
Improvement+0.8#100

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#169
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#141
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#255
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+0.9#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.9% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 46.6% 55.6% 30.9%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 50.1% 35.5%
Conference Champion 3.2% 3.9% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 7.3% 12.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round4.2% 4.9% 3.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Neutral) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 411 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 214 @La Salle L 60-73 41%     0 - 1 -13.4 -9.6 -4.6
  Thu, Nov 13 76 @Seton Hall L 58-70 11%     0 - 2 -1.4 -4.9 +2.9
  Tue, Nov 18 64 @Syracuse L 73-78 10%     0 - 3 +6.5 +5.2 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 23 185 Robert Morris W 71-70 OT 58%     1 - 3 -3.7 -3.2 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 277 Ball St. W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Nov 29 336 Le Moyne W 78-70 77%    
  Sun, Nov 30 327 @Lafayette W 73-69 63%    
  Wed, Dec 3 238 Princeton W 73-68 67%    
  Sat, Dec 6 104 @Georgia Tech L 64-74 17%    
  Sun, Dec 14 288 @Fairfield W 74-73 54%    
  Wed, Dec 17 193 Quinnipiac W 76-74 58%    
  Sun, Dec 21 312 Lehigh W 74-66 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 219 Campbell W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 3 128 @Towson L 62-70 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 130 William & Mary L 77-79 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 162 @Hofstra L 67-72 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 262 Drexel W 70-64 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 200 Northeastern W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Jan 22 235 @Hampton L 68-69 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 219 @Campbell L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 313 N.C. A&T W 77-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 162 Hofstra W 70-69 53%    
  Thu, Feb 5 251 @Stony Brook L 68-69 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 262 @Drexel L 66-67 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 128 Towson L 65-67 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 113 @UNC Wilmington L 65-74 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 151 @College of Charleston L 68-74 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 251 Stony Brook W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 190 Elon W 75-73 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 200 @Northeastern L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.0 2.5 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.2 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 4.2 2.7 0.2 8.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.4 8.3 10.5 12.3 13.3 12.9 10.8 8.7 5.9 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 97.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 88.1% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 55.2% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.5% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 21.8% 21.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 25.4% 25.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.8% 21.8% 21.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 3.4% 16.1% 16.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.9
12-6 5.9% 12.4% 12.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.2
11-7 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.0
10-8 10.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.2
9-9 12.9% 3.5% 3.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.5
8-10 13.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.0
7-11 12.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.2
6-12 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.3
4-14 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 95.7 0.0%