Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#118
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#124
Pace78.7#23
Improvement+0.9#100

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#86
First Shot+2.1#116
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#91
Layup/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows+1.3#108
Improvement+1.3#62

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#179
First Shot+1.5#122
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#304
Layups/Dunks-2.7#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#26
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement-0.4#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.0% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 85.1% 87.0% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 77.6% 63.7%
Conference Champion 11.9% 12.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 2.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.6% 11.0% 6.3%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 411 - 220 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 256 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 78%     1 - 0 +2.8 -2.3 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +23.0 +13.7 +4.7
  Tue, Nov 11 42 @SMU L 91-102 14%     2 - 1 +3.9 +11.9 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 15 270 Nicholls St. W 99-79 86%     3 - 1 +11.2 +16.7 -7.0
  Tue, Nov 18 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 85%     4 - 1 +13.1 +18.1 -3.8
  Sun, Nov 23 149 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 62%     4 - 2 -3.0 +7.0 -9.7
  Mon, Nov 24 82 McNeese St. L 60-73 35%     4 - 3 -6.0 -12.5 +7.2
  Tue, Nov 25 62 George Washington W 96-95 29%     5 - 3 +9.8 +20.7 -10.9
  Tue, Dec 2 310 Morehead St. W 87-73 91%    
  Sat, Dec 6 294 Bellarmine W 89-76 90%    
  Sat, Dec 13 58 Akron L 85-91 27%    
  Thu, Dec 18 143 Drake W 76-71 69%    
  Sun, Dec 21 268 @Valparaiso W 80-74 71%    
  Mon, Dec 29 142 Southern Illinois W 83-78 68%    
  Thu, Jan 1 174 @Illinois-Chicago W 83-82 55%    
  Sun, Jan 4 112 Bradley W 81-78 60%    
  Wed, Jan 7 291 @Evansville W 81-74 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 268 Valparaiso W 83-71 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 166 Indiana St. W 87-80 74%    
  Wed, Jan 21 143 @Drake L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 90 @Northern Iowa L 69-75 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 102 Illinois St. W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 94 @Belmont L 79-85 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 174 Illinois-Chicago W 86-79 74%    
  Fri, Feb 6 142 @Southern Illinois L 80-81 46%    
  Mon, Feb 9 90 Northern Iowa W 73-72 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 166 @Indiana St. W 84-83 54%    
  Sun, Feb 15 94 Belmont W 83-82 51%    
  Wed, Feb 18 102 @Illinois St. L 76-81 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 291 Evansville W 84-71 88%    
  Sun, Mar 1 112 @Bradley L 78-81 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.1 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.1 2.3 0.3 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.8 1.9 0.2 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.4 8.5 11.7 12.9 13.0 12.4 10.5 7.3 4.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
17-3 92.9% 2.1    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 69.4% 3.4    2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 41.2% 3.0    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 16.0% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.8 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 47.7% 41.3% 6.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10.9%
18-2 1.0% 34.6% 34.6% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.3% 29.7% 29.4% 0.3% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.6 0.4%
16-4 4.9% 26.2% 26.2% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 3.6
15-5 7.3% 22.7% 22.7% 12.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.6
14-6 10.5% 16.2% 16.2% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.8
13-7 12.4% 12.8% 12.8% 12.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.8
12-8 13.0% 9.3% 9.3% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-9 12.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 12.0
10-10 11.7% 5.3% 5.3% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.0
9-11 8.5% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3
8-12 6.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.2
7-13 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.6% 10.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.9 3.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 89.4 0.0%