Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.5 #89
Expected Predictive Rating +10.6 #57
Pace 77.7 #21
Improvement +2.4 #62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #61 B B- B B C+
Defense #143 B C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.20 #120 +0.8 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #214 0.86 #56 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 43% #145 1.12 #51 +3.3 #76
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #64 +4.3 #64
Freethrows 18.5 #124 78% #28 14.5 #72
Second Chance 32.4% #131 1.10 #113 0.36 #100
Turnovers 15.0% #87
Total Offense +5.8 #61

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.02 #33 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #41 0.74 #150 -2.0 #319
Three Pointers 27% #365 0.98 #147 +7.6 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #61 +3.9 #61
Freethrows 15.8 #108 77% #345 12.3 #194
Second Chance 32.4% #252 1.01 #135 0.33 #197
Turnovers 15.8% #225
Total Defense +0.7 #143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #152 -0.1% #156
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #65 -7.6% #55
Possession Length 16.0 #63 16.5 #62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #146 0.18 #183
Improvement +1.6 #91 +0.9 #128

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 24.1% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 58.7% 61.6% 37.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round23.2% 23.8% 19.3%
Second Round4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 5
Quad 39 - 313 - 8
Quad 411 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 258 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 87% +5  1 - 0 +3 -3 F C F +4 C+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 A- F A+ +2 B B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 30 @SMU L 91 - 102 15% -9  2 - 1 +7 +11 A A+ B- -3 A C- D
 Sat, Nov 15 205 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 87% +11  3 - 1 +14 +16 A+ A+ F -3 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 18 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 93% +16  4 - 1 +11 +16 C A+ A+ -4 A+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 120 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 65% -3  4 - 2 -0 +10 A C A+ -10 B+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 80 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 47% -16  4 - 3 -6 -13 F C- F +8 A A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 60 George Washington W 96 - 95 40% +1  5 - 3 +10 +21 A+ A+ A+ -11 C+ B+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 304 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 94% +10  6 - 3 +21 +9 D+ A D+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 294 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 94% +13  7 - 3 +2 +4 A+ F F -1 C A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 Akron W 115 - 100 43% +9  8 - 3 +23 +25 A+ B+ F -4 C A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 165 Drake W 81 - 72 83% +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +10 F A+ A+ -4 A+ F B
 Sun, Dec 21 184 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 69% -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +7 +12 A+ F B -5 D D C
 Mon, Dec 29 126 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 77% +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F C- -6 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 160 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 64% -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +7 +7 F A+ C -1 B- C B
 Sun, Jan 4 114 Bradley W 86 - 66 71% +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +21 +15 A+ C+ B+ +6 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 251 @Evansville W 79 - 69 80% +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +8 +6 C- B- A+ +1 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 85% +6  15 - 3 7 - 0 +8 +12 A+ F B+ -5 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 207 Indiana St. W 88 - 76 88%
 Wed, Jan 21 165 @Drake W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Jan 24 107 @Northern Iowa L 70 - 71 47%
 Wed, Jan 28 91 Illinois St. W 80 - 77 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 79 @Belmont L 84 - 88 36%
 Tue, Feb 3 160 Illinois-Chicago W 83 - 73 81%
 Fri, Feb 6 126 @Southern Illinois W 82 - 80 56%
 Mon, Feb 9 107 Northern Iowa W 73 - 68 68%
 Thu, Feb 12 207 @Indiana St. W 85 - 79 72%
 Sun, Feb 15 79 Belmont W 87 - 85 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 91 @Illinois St. L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 Evansville W 85 - 70 91%
 Sun, Mar 1 114 @Bradley L 81 - 82 49%
Totals 23 - 8 15 - 5 +7 +6 B B- B +1 B C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.9 12.2 17.6 13.8 7.7 2.7 0.5 58.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.1 7.0 1.8 0.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.2 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.7 11.0 16.3 19.5 19.4 13.9 7.7 2.7 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7
18-2 100.0% 7.7    7.6 0.0
17-3 99.0% 13.8    13.0 0.7
16-4 90.8% 17.6    13.1 4.3 0.2
15-5 62.3% 12.2    6.0 5.1 1.1 0.0
14-6 23.9% 3.9    0.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.7% 58.7 43.7 12.0 2.6 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 57.4% 40.6% 16.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 28.3%
19-1 2.7% 47.4% 41.6% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.4 10.0%
18-2 7.7% 37.0% 34.8% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.7 4.8 3.3%
17-3 13.9% 31.4% 31.1% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 2.5 1.8 0.0 9.5 0.4%
16-4 19.4% 26.6% 26.6% 0.1% 11.6 2.0 3.1 0.1 14.2 0.1%
15-5 19.5% 21.6% 21.6% 0.1% 11.8 1.1 2.9 0.2 15.3 0.1%
14-6 16.3% 17.4% 17.4% 11.9 0.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.5
13-7 11.0% 14.8% 14.8% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 9.4
12-8 5.7% 10.3% 10.3% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 5.1
11-9 2.4% 9.8% 9.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
10-10 0.7% 4.8% 4.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-11 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.5% 23.0% 0.5% 11.6 76.5 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.4 4.9 4.9 7.3 4.9 19.5 26.8 31.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 34.8% 10.1 8.7 13.0 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 32.0% 10.5 16.0 16.0